生猪日报 | 2025-07-09 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、7月8日，生猪注册仓单447手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，且中期看生猪基本面矛盾不大，LH2509合约震 荡调整； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日减仓350手，持仓约7万手，最高价14300元/吨，最 低价14230元/吨，收盘于14275元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢，供应压力尚未完全释放；②后续 出栏量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限； 多头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格韧性强，说 明供需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度 逐渐进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑 ...

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者田亚雄 刘昊 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是 一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并不把你带到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临 渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 田亚雄 刘昊 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 商品赚钱的机会，大体上出现在别人深度犯错的时候，即在情绪的极端位置进行反转交易。以 2025年4月9日开盘为例，当天的铜和白银等商品砸出了相对意义上的低点。除此以外，需要进一 步理解我们对于利多是否被定价的认识。通常，当利空出现但价格不跌时，我们会视之为市场认 为利空出尽，进而形成利多的判断，这是第一维度的认知。但总归到后期，如果上行驱动不足， 市场会重新回到此前空头逻辑的定价上。即使此前的价格表现不敏感，后续也可能形成更显著的 空头机会。 主线一：反内卷题材的商品筛选框架。反内卷逻辑需综合四项指标： A.行业亏损周期 B.产能利用率降幅 C.头部玩家集中度 D.企业所有制特征 主线第一条是反内卷题材对于商品定 ...

"这个娃娃丑得让人想买！"——当年轻人这样评价Labubu时，他们到底在为什么买单？ 20世纪最著名的美国工业设计师雷蒙德·洛伊早就摸透了其中的门道。20世纪初，他提出MAYA原则 （玛雅原则），即"最先进但可接受的设计"（the Most Advanced Yet Acceptable design）。 这不仅是设计法则，更是一场心理博弈： 用陌生感刺激欲望，用熟悉感降低防线。 这听起来很玄乎。但如果有人去问人们为什么喜欢Labubu，他们会说，因为这个娃娃丑萌得太可爱 了。这就是玛雅原则在起作用——丑是破界，萌是回归；冲突越剧烈，记忆越深刻。 Labubu娃娃以"丑萌"颠覆传统审美，年轻人愿为一杯情绪价值拉满的咖啡支付溢价，一切都在说 明，今天商品的价值，正在被一种全新的消费逻辑解构。 这种变化在家居领域尤为显著：当iPhone 4引发的审美平权打破认知壁垒，小红书重构了大众美学认 知，中国消费者对沙发的需求，早已超越对进口标签的盲目追求，转向更复杂的价值需求。 打破客厅旧模式，沙发的角色变 了 当电视作为曾经客厅"绝对主角"的地位消失，这意味着家庭中人们生活方式正在发生根本转变——人 们不再满足于被动接 ...

期货表现 元/500千克,跌幅2.99%。 蛋价跌势不改 期货再度交易收升水逻辑 2025年07月07日 短期来看,当前鸡蛋供给稳定,供给压力持续释放,现货反转仍待时 日,短期或仍偏弱维持低位运行。中期来看,新开产蛋鸡陆续增加,结 合补栏鸡苗和淘汰蛋鸡数据来看理论在产蛋鸡存栏水平仍处呈现增加超 势叠加梅雨季节性下跌预期,导致年中现货供给压力不减;同时,若7 月现货如期维持低位,养殖端集中大规模淘汰导致阶段性供给减少叠加 中秋消费旺季,或驱动8-9月现货呈现阶段性反弹行情,反弹高点取决 淘鸡节奏,目前高点不宜过分乐观,或呈现'旺季不旺。 > 操作建议 主力合约先交易收升水逻辑,待现货见底后或再交易消费旺季逻辑。 08合约宽幅区间运行,上方压力3600-3650得到验证,下方支撑3400- 3450;09合约维持高空思路,短期压力3700-3720得到盘面验证, 支撑3500-3550。另外关注2512、2601、2602、2603合约的高空 格林大华 期货研究院 证监许可 2011 1288号 联系电话0371-65617380 从业资格:F0242716 交易咨询资格:Z0011864 料、我公司对这些信息的 ...

Economic Data Release - China will release several important economic data this week, including June CPI, June PPI, July foreign exchange reserves, and July social financing data [1] - The U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" suspension period is about to end, and the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [1] Stock Market Developments - This week, a total of 50 stocks will have their lock-up shares released, with a total market value of approximately 37.619 billion yuan. The top three stocks by market value of released shares are Lingyun Guang (5.952 billion yuan), Haohua Technology (4.263 billion yuan), and Weike Technology (3.636 billion yuan) [2] Regulatory Changes - The People's Bank of China is seeking public opinion on the draft business rules for the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which includes detailed processes for account management, funding, and settlement [4] - The Ministry of Finance has announced measures regarding government procurement of medical devices imported from the EU, requiring that non-EU companies' products must not exceed 50% of the total contract amount for certain procurement projects [5] Aviation Industry Initiatives - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has established a leadership group for general aviation and low-altitude economy, focusing on the development and regulation of these sectors [6] Real Estate Market Stability - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and encourages local governments to implement precise policies to promote healthy development [7] Electricity Demand Surge - China's electricity load reached a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, driven by high temperatures, marking an increase of approximately 200 million kilowatts from the end of June and nearly 150 million kilowatts year-on-year [8] Oil Production Increase - Eight major oil-producing countries have decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, adjusting their output based on current market conditions [9] New Tariffs Announcement - U.S. President Trump announced that new tariffs will likely be implemented starting August 1, with rates potentially reaching up to 70% [10] Stock Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a strong oscillation, with a focus on industry logic as half-year reports approach. High-dividend blue-chip companies are anticipated to gain market favor [14] - The market is cautiously optimistic for July, with expectations for steady upward movement in the index amid various influencing factors [14][15]

同时，吴世春认为，具身智能、自动驾驶、无人机、AI玩具是Agent的四大物理落地场景。其中，具身智能是中国引领世界的历史机遇。在投资偏好上，吴 世春认为可关注整机，关节、触觉传感器、灵巧手等核心零部件，以及形成规模效应的定制化服务。 "投资就是要投资未来的稀缺性，要敢于在非共识的无人区里独立判断。"吴世春分享了自己的三条投资逻辑，分别为"投资独角虎"逻辑、"投资小镇青年"逻 辑和"人事时值"逻辑。 具体来看，"独角虎"理论指以多维的评价标准取代独角兽单一的估值评价标准，其更有投资指导意义。"投资小镇青年"理论由吴世春于2017年提出，其 中"小镇青年"特指那些出身非顶尖资源圈层，却具备极强抗压能力与草根创业精神的创业者。吴世春强调，"小镇青年"如今已成为中国创业大军的主力军， 他们没有退路，如同"打不死的小强"般坚韧不拔。而"人事时值四合一"理论则着重指出，在早期投资判断逻辑里，"人、事、时、值"这四个方面是不可或缺 的关键要素，在投资决策过程中，任何一个方面都不能缺失。 "2025年是AI Agent元年。"吴世春将AI Agent看作基于大模型，具备记忆能力、能够有自主推理和规划工具的使用、从而来解决问题 ...

SENTI-202 Program Highlights - SENTI-202 is a first-in-class off-the-shelf Logic-Gated selective CD33 OR FLT3 NOT EMCN CAR NK cell therapy targeting AML [4, 5, 52] - The therapy is designed to selectively kill both AML blasts and LSCs while protecting healthy HSPCs [15, 52] - Preliminary Phase 1 trial data shows positive efficacy in R/R AML [5] Clinical Trial & Patient Data - The Phase 1 trial (SENTI-202-101) enrolled heavily pretreated R/R AML patients with poor prognosis [18, 52] - The study identified a preliminary Recommended Phase 2 Dose (RP2D) [20, 22, 52] - The opening dose cohort was anticipated to be biologically active [18, 22] - The median time from AML diagnosis to trial entry was less than 1 year [25] - Patients had received a median of 2 prior lines of therapy [27] Safety & Tolerability - SENTI-202 was generally well-tolerated in R/R AML patients [30, 52] - Most frequent Grade 3+ AEs were hematologic and consistent with R/R AML patients receiving lymphodepletion [29, 52] - The Maximum Tolerated Dose (MTD) was not reached, and the preliminary RP2D was identified as 1.5 x 10^9 cells/dose x 3 weekly doses/28 days [52] Efficacy & Response - Across all patients, the Overall Response Rate (ORR) was 71% (5/7) and the composite Complete Remission (cCR) rate was 57% (4/7) [33, 57] - In the preliminary RP2D cohort, the cCR rate was 67% (2/3) [33, 57] - All cCR patients (4/4) achieved MRD- status as assessed per local standard of care [33, 57] - All cCR patients maintained morphologic remission with the longest follow-up of 8+ months [57]

黄金反复测试阻力，即将公布美国非农就业数据，黄金方向如何选择？Richard正在直播拆解多空逻 辑，点击马上看！ 相关链接 非农数据前瞻直播中 ...

洞见 （ DJ00123987 ） —— 不一样的观点，不一样的故事， 3000 万人订阅的微信大号。点击标题下 蓝字 " 洞见 " 关注，我们将为您提供有价值、有意思的延伸阅读。 作者： 洞见Moon 层次不同，沟通的语言也不同。 ♬ 点上方播放按钮可收听 洞见主播安东尼朗读音频 卡耐基年轻时，参加过一场慈善晚宴。 宴会宾客如云，各行各业的人三五成群，忙着高谈阔论。 卡耐基却没有着急参与其中，而是暗暗打听宾客的背景。 摸清每个人的情况后，卡耐基才走近人群开始攀谈。 面对普通民众，他就用自己的糟糕经历引起共情； 面对职场精英，他就和他们聊金融、经济走势； 面对政府要员，他就和他们探讨政策、社会。 一场宴会下来，无论权贵还是普通人，都觉得与他交谈如沐春风。 卡耐基把这段经历写进自传，还说： 成功的人际关系在于，捕捉对方的需求，而非表达自己的 需求。 说白了就是：见什么人，说什么话。 和底层人用情绪说话 底层社会的运行法则，是情绪而非理性。 为什么奶头乐、短剧爽片在底层更盛行？ 因为它们提供的是即时情绪反馈，而非复杂思考。 为什么罔顾事实，非黑即白的极端言论在底层更有市场？ 因为情绪化的解释比复杂的现实更容易接受 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industries [5] Core Viewpoints - The focus is on investment opportunities in the stable and high-dividend electro-aluminum sector [2][9] - Short-term demand concerns are alleviated, with a greater emphasis on supply-side logic for mid-term investments [8][13] - Long-term stable and low-cost electricity supply is a critical constraint for the electro-aluminum industry [14] - The supply-demand balance is expected to ensure stable profitability and dividends, making the electro-aluminum sector a true dividend asset [14] Summary by Sections Electro-Aluminum Sector - Concerns about downstream demand affecting short-term profitability are noted, but the report argues that short-term demand is not a worry [8][13] - Inventory levels in the electro-aluminum sector are decreasing, indicating a healthy supply-demand balance [8][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable, low-cost electricity supply as a hard constraint for the electro-aluminum industry [14] - Future profitability is expected to be stable, with major companies potentially achieving a dividend yield close to 6% [14] Steel Sector - The steel industry is entering a demand lull, with a focus on monitoring production reduction policies [15] - Rebar production has increased significantly, with a slight rise in consumption [15][16] - Total steel inventory has seen a slight increase week-on-week but a significant decrease year-on-year [22] - Steel prices have shown a slight decline, with the overall price index down by 0.49% [35][36] New Energy Metals - Lithium production in May 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 31.37% [39] - The production of new energy vehicles in China has also risen sharply, with a 33.02% increase in production [43] - Prices for lithium and nickel have shown an upward trend, indicating a robust market [48][49]