Macro Economy - US debt officially crosses above $38 trillion [1] Market Analysis - Exclusive report on political bias in economic data is available [1] - Interview with Mel Mattison on macro markets is provided [1]

I am going to reveal some bombshell data later today that is going to prove that economic data is politically biased and has become completely unreliable.The mainstream media is silencing the story.But our team is going to put the appropriate attention on this scandal. ...

Economic Outlook - The report analyzes how China's latest economic data will influence short-term policies [1] Bank Analysis - Mitsubishi UFJ Bank provides insights on the potential policy responses based on the economic data [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened higher as expected, but the trading volume decreased by 203.1 billion, reaching only 1.7513 trillion, the lowest since August 8 [1] - A total of 4,064 stocks rose, with 96 hitting the daily limit, and the average increase for individual stocks was 1.24%, indicating a decent profit effect [2] Market Sentiment - Despite the positive profit effect, the overall market sentiment felt weak due to low trading volume and concerns about sustainability [4] - Technology stocks initially surged due to favorable weekend news but faced continuous selling pressure afterward [4] Sector Performance - The ChiNext index rose over 3 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 index gained over 2 points, but both indices faced selling pressure in the afternoon [5] - Coal and energy stocks saw gains, but their capacity was insufficient to absorb funds from the technology sector, making it challenging for these cyclical stocks to drive the market [6] Economic Data - Recent economic data revealed disappointing real estate figures, with a 0.3% month-on-month decline in housing prices across 70 cities, indicating a lack of the expected "golden September and silver October" [9] - GDP growth for the first three quarters was 5.2%, with the third quarter at 4.8%, suggesting that the pressure to achieve a full-year growth of 5% is not as severe as anticipated [9] - Retail sales grew by 3%, but the growth rate has noticeably slowed compared to the first half of the year, while fixed investment saw a decline of 0.5% [9] Future Outlook - The upcoming meetings are crucial for breaking the current market pattern, with expectations for measures to boost consumption and support the technology sector [7][9] - The market requires new narratives or significant measures to attract incremental capital and regain upward momentum [9]

Labor Market Analysis - Haver Analytics estimates weekly jobless claims at 217,000 for the week of October 11th, compared to the government's 228,000 [1] - Continuing claims are estimated to be up at 1.942 million versus 1.92 million [2] - The economy is characterized as a relatively low fire, low hire environment, with no significant changes since the government stopped publishing data [4] - Goldman Sachs reports similar jobless claim numbers [5] Financial Market Conditions - Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) is at one-month highs, indicating a clamor for high-quality collateral and tightness in the financial market [11][12] - The rise in SOFR is reversing the effect of the Fed's rate cut on September 17th [13] - The fiscal year ended with 1.22 trillion to service the debt [16] Monetary Policy and Market Outlook - There's a divergence between jobless claims data and the Fed's concerns about the labor market [8] - The relationship between stocks and treasury yields is influenced by a "flight to good collateral" [9] - The current situation is not comparable to the great credit crisis [10] - Chairman Powell mentioned the possibility of ending quantitative tightening in the coming months due to some tightening in financial markets [17]

An extended government shutdown raises the prospect Fed officials will make their rate decision without economic data that could reconcile how far and fast to cut rates https://t.co/jb7qmLluV9 ...

Financial Performance - Bank earnings serve as a proxy for US economic data [1] - The numbers from the biggest lenders have been really good [1] Market Trends - Strong bank earnings are propelling stocks higher [1]

Earnings and Market Trends - Bank earnings are increasingly important due to the lack of economic data such as PPI, CPI, and jobs report [1] - Investors are expected to rely more on bank CEOs' commentary regarding consumer trends and market conditions [2] - Earnings estimates for calendar year 2026 show a 14% growth [3] - The market is considered to be priced to perfection, raising concerns about the departure from economic growth estimates and earnings growth [4] AI Impact and Investment - The expectation of strong earnings growth is contrasted with nominal GDP estimates, suggesting potential overestimation of firm performance [5] - AI is seen as a driver of earnings growth, particularly in communication services, technology, and financials [6] - There's skepticism about the near-term benefits of AI, as the investment phase precedes significant productivity gains [7][8] - Investors should be cautious about AI deals, considering the potential for revenue acceleration to meet deal obligations [11] Economic and Geopolitical Factors - Investors should be more cautious about new technology buildouts, considering the possibility of building in the wrong direction [13] - Commodity rallies, including gold hitting new records, reflect concerns about Fed credibility and a preference for real assets over financial assets [14][15] - International relations, particularly with China, are a factor influencing market dynamics [15]

Group 1 - The fluctuation in gold prices resembles that of stock trading, with daily changes causing uncertainty for consumers [4][8] - There is a significant price disparity among different gold retailers, with some stores pricing gold at 1,168 per gram while others offer it at around 1,100, leading to a difference of over 200 per gram [2][6] - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook maintain consistent pricing, suggesting possible collusion, while other brands like Lao Feng Xiang and Lao Miao show varied pricing strategies [2][6] Group 2 - Consumers are advised to consider purchasing gold bars for better value, as they typically have lower premiums compared to jewelry, which includes additional craftsmanship costs [6] - The decision to buy gold should be based on individual urgency and market conditions, with recommendations for dollar-cost averaging to mitigate risks associated with price volatility [8] - The long-term view on gold remains positive as a hard currency, despite short-term fluctuations influenced by various economic factors [8]

THIS IS "BLOOMBERG TECH SCARLETT FROM NEW YORK CITY FOR OUR VIEWERS WORLDWIDE, I AM SCARLET FU. "BLOOMBERG REAL YIELD" STARTS NOW. ♪ COMING UP, THE U.S. GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN ENTERS 10 DAY TODAY WITH NO FURNITURE INSIDE.-=-- END IN SIGHT. TARIFF CONCERNS RENTAL MARKET-- RATTLES MARKETS. AND REVEALING CRACKS IN CREDIT.WE ARE GOING TO GET DOUBLELINE CAPITAL'S TAKE ON WHAT THIS SIGNALS IN JUST A MOMENT. FIRST WE BEGIN WITH A BIG ISSUE, LACK OF OFFICIAL ECONOMIC DATA CUTTING THE ECONOMIC PICTURE. >> THE SHUTDOWN, ...