Payrolls at US companies unexpectedly dropped in September, according to ADP Research data released Wednesday: Here’s your Evening Briefing https://t.co/LirPDZibX9 ...

Labor Market & Economic Data - ADP data indicates a weakening labor market, with jobs shrinking [2] - Small and medium-sized businesses are disproportionately affected by the slowdown in jobs data [3] - The market is increasingly relying on ADP data due to concerns about government economic data delays and revisions [1][5][9][10][11] - The Fed is also reportedly using private data to estimate non-farm payroll numbers [13][14] Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - Investors are pricing in a 99% probability of a Fed rate cut in October, driven by the ADP report [2] - The market anticipates multiple rate cuts to prevent a rapid increase in the unemployment rate [8][17] - Yields are declining in response to the ADP report and expectations of Fed rate cuts [2][7][17] Market Outlook & Investment Strategy - Wall Street remains generally bullish on the stock market despite the labor market slowdown [4] - Goldman Sachs views a slowdown in the labor market as the biggest risk to the economy [4] - Uncertainty, such as tariff uncertainty, is putting downward pressure on yields [16]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to react to economic conditions, particularly if a prolonged government shutdown occurs, with a focus on the long end of the yield curve [1][2]. Economic Conditions - Concerns about the deficit and the "sell America" trade have made the long end of the curve appear cheap, but a prolonged shutdown could weaken economic data, potentially leading to a more aggressive Fed response [2][6]. - If economic data worsens, particularly if unemployment rises above 4.5%, the Fed may cut rates more rapidly, impacting both the front and long ends of the yield curve [2][3]. Bond Market Dynamics - Demand for Treasury auctions remains strong despite political volatility, with primary dealer participation and end-user demand being closely monitored [4][5]. - Structural positives in the U.S. economy, such as strong corporate fundamentals and careful refinancing, support bond demand, even amid cyclical slowdowns [6][13]. Investment Strategy - The 5 to 10 year part of the yield curve is identified as the "sweet spot" for bond investors, offering attractive yields of 5-6% without excessive duration risk [14][15]. - Investors are encouraged to consider high-quality bonds as a hedge against risk assets, despite some diversifying into gold and cryptocurrencies [11][12]. Market Sentiment - There has been significant inflow into bonds, although the attractiveness of money market funds yielding around 4% may temper urgency for further investment [8][9]. - The absence of debt ceiling concerns is viewed positively, allowing for a focus on potential economic impacts from a government shutdown [13].

Bond Market Reaction & Fed Policy - The long end of the curve is considered cheap based on valuation metrics, but the front end could also move if economic data weakens due to a prolonged shutdown [2] - The market is pricing in gradual Fed cuts to neutral, but a worsening economy (unemployment rate above 45%) could lead to more aggressive Fed action [2] - An independent Fed is responding to data and aiming to reduce the level of restrictiveness, making bonds attractive [6] - The Fed is expected to cut rates to 3%, which is close to neutral, even without a significant slowdown [8] Auction & Demand - End-user demand for Treasury auctions remains strong, indicating structural positives in the US economy [5] - Structural positives in the US economy, such as AI capex and strong corporate fundamentals, are driving demand for US bonds [6] - People look at 55%-6% in high-quality bonds and they like it [6] Investment Strategy & Risk Hedge - The 5 to 10-year part of the curve is considered a sweet spot, offering a balance between yield and duration risk [3][14][15] - Bonds are still considered a hedge, especially with the Fed likely to cut rates more aggressively [12][13] - Investors may diversify into other assets like gold and cryptocurrency, but US Treasuries remain a safe haven [9][10][11][12] - High-yield market can offer yields higher than 5%-6% without taking on that much duration risk [15]

The closure may delay key economic data ...

长风万里送秋雁，对此可以酣高楼。 光大研究财经月历，一览重点经济数据发布时间表。两款 尺寸手机屏保，全球财经大事尽在掌握。 瘦身版适合苹果X等全面屏 | 美国9月 制造业PMI | 美国9月 非农就业/失业率 | 十三 | +四 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 8 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | | 中秋节 中国9月 寒露 十八 外汇储备 | 十九 | =+ | 中 | | (13) 14 15 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | | 中国9月 甘三 中国9日 美国9月 进出口 M2/社融/CPI/PP 零售 | 甘六 | 甘七 | 甘八 | | 20 21 22 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | | 中国9月 霜降 九月 初二 工业/投资/社消 第三季度GDP | 初四 | 初五 | 初六 | | 28 29 30 中国9月 初八 章相信 美国第三季度 工业企业利润 实际GDP 美联储议息会议 | 31 中国10月 官方制造业 PMI | 0000 | | 丰满版适合多数非全面屏 百 Du 75 5 2 4 十三 十四 美国9月 美国9月 非农就业/失业率 浩 ...

The USA is ghetto and is run by a bunch of public servants of mental diminished capacity that put themselves above their oath.*I still love America*Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru):JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Beauru of Labor Statistics says it will not release economic data including the jobs report on Friday, if US government shuts down. ...

Here's the key economic data at risk of being delayed in a government shutdown https://t.co/ahGAwTsHIT ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The upcoming nonfarm payroll report is considered the most significant economic indicator, with potential implications for Federal Reserve rate decisions [5] - Concerns exist regarding overheating in certain sectors of the economy, particularly data centers, while other sectors like autos, homes, and retailers are performing poorly [2] Group 2: Company Earnings Reports - Carnival and Jefferies are set to report quarterly earnings, with Carnival's performance in the cruise industry being highlighted as strong post-COVID, and Jefferies' performance indicating the health of investment houses [2] - Paychex is viewed as a solid metric for the economy's state, with its earnings report expected to provide insights into small and medium-sized businesses [3] - Nike's earnings report is anticipated to be crucial, with expectations for future growth under new CEO Elliot Hill, although uncertainty remains about whether the upcoming report will be a breakout quarter [3] - Conagra's earnings report is awaited, with concerns about its high dividend and the need for a significant positive surprise to reverse its stock's downward trend [4]

Market Downturn Factors - Crypto market面临四大下行压力，包括期权到期、美国政府可能停摆、强劲的经济数据以及过高的杠杆[1][2][3] - 价值 230 亿美元的比特币和以太坊期权即将到期，这通常会带来高波动性[1] - 10 月 1 日美国政府关门的几率现在是 67%，过去政府关门曾导致市场调整[1][2] - 美国第二季度 GDP 修订数据为 3.8%，高于预期的 3.3%，良好的经济数据在短期内利空，因为它降低了降息的可能性[2] - 零售交易者开设了高杠杆头寸，导致大量清算，从而导致市场抛售[2][3] Whale Manipulation - Whales（巨鲸）可能正在策划一次抛售，目的是在第四季度反弹之前让投资者恐慌性抛售[3] - Whales 在 9 月份以看涨的方式启动，以诱导人们认为市场只会单边上涨，然后开始抛售[3] Max Pain Price - 比特币的最大痛点价格为 11 万美元，以太坊为 3700 美元，通常 Whales 会将价格推向最大痛点[1]