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Jobs Stumble—Now What? | ITK With Cathie Wood
ARK Invest· 2025-09-05 21:25
Fiscal Policy & Economic Growth - The analysis suggests tariffs are running at an annual rate between $400 billion and $500 billion, potentially improving the deficit, but real GDP growth is considered the key to significantly reducing the deficit as a percentage of GDP [1] - The report anticipates real GDP growth will surprise on the high side of expectations later in the year and into 2026, driven by innovation platforms like robotics, energy storage, AI, multiomic sequencing, and blockchain technology, all catalyzed by AI [1] - The analysis highlights deregulation, particularly in crypto, AI, and nuclear energy, as a significant factor for economic growth, with tax changes encouraging manufacturing and innovation through accelerated depreciation schedules and full expensing of equipment, R&D, and software [1] Inflation & Monetary Policy - The report indicates that while inflation may seem stuck in the 2% to 3% range, innovation-driven productivity gains could lead to deflation in the coming years [2] - The analysis points out that M2 money supply growth has significantly dropped compared to the COVID boom, and the velocity of money is declining, potentially diffusing inflationary pressures [2] - The yield curve, measured by the two-year Treasury yield relative to the three-month Treasury yield, indicates tight monetary policy, which is expected to have disinflationary or deflationary effects [3] - True inflation CPI is reported at 19%, even with tariffs factored in, and consumer inflation expectations are expected to decline [3] Market Indicators & Investment Strategy - The analysis notes that manufacturing has been contracting for the last three years, and services are not in great shape, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The report highlights that AI-powered capital spending is increasing, supported by new tax rules, while the trade deficit is being addressed [5] - The analysis observes that pending home sales are deteriorating, and new home inventory is high, potentially leading to price cuts and impacting the CPI [5] - The report suggests that the return on investment in the US is expected to increase due to innovation, tax laws, and deregulation, potentially strengthening the dollar [5] - The analysis notes that corporate profits are healthy, but quality of earnings and harnessing new technologies will be crucial for future growth [5] - The report observes that commodity prices are going nowhere, and gold is breaking out to all-time highs relative to metals, possibly signaling deflationary concerns [5]
X @Investopedia
Investopedia· 2025-09-05 12:30
A beachfront condo still isn't cheap, but now may be the time to buy. 'Seasonal' home prices were flat year-over-year in July, compared to home prices in other locations, which rose 2%. https://t.co/AkxSLcotel ...
X @The Motley Fool
The Motley Fool· 2025-09-02 17:15
Average home prices are up 2,000% since 1970.The S&P 500 is up 12,800% over the same period. https://t.co/a7pJo1cCbx ...
Home Prices Are FINALLY Falling, Is Real Estate About To ROLL OVER?
From The Desk Of Anthony Pompliano· 2025-08-29 21:00
Housing Market Trends - The housing market is undergoing a recalibration period after the pandemic boom, with a shift in the supply-demand equilibrium towards buyers [7][16] - A bifurcation exists in the housing market, with Sun Belt and Mountain West areas experiencing more softening compared to the Midwest and Northeast [19][20] - Existing home sales are approximately 13 million below the normal trend, indicating a significant constraint in the purchase side of the mortgage market [35] - Refinance activity is also experiencing a three-year drought, coinciding with the low purchase side, making it a tough period for the mortgage industry [42] Builder Strategies and Margins - During the pandemic, builders had significant pricing power and record profit margins, but they have since compressed margins to entice buyers [3][4][5] - Builders initially used mortgage rate buydowns as a successful lever, but are now resorting to outright price cuts in some areas like Florida and Texas [6][8] - Builder margins have seen compression year-over-year among the top 11 publicly traded home builders, although many still exceed pre-pandemic levels [10] - Some builders are choosing to protect margins by pulling back on the overall number of sales, leading to a softening in single-family housing starts [11] Factors Influencing the Market - The deceleration of migration to Sun Belt areas means local incomes must now support prices, which are detached from underlying incomes [21][22][23] - The "lock-in effect," where homeowners are hesitant to give up lower mortgage rates, is impacting both supply and demand in different regions [28][31] - Tariffs have not had a significant impact on build costs, as only 7% of residential construction materials are imported, and some key materials were excluded from tariffs [13][14][15] Open Door Analysis - Open Door overpaid for homes in boomtown markets and faces challenges in the higher interest rate environment with less housing market churn [45] - There is skepticism about the long-term viability of Open Door's core I-buying business, but opportunities exist for the company to leverage its scale and attention to move into other business avenues [45][46]
X @Investopedia
Investopedia· 2025-08-28 17:30
Home prices nationwide grew less than the inflation rate in June, reversing pandemic-era housing trends. https://t.co/aN4pHOKxk1 ...