Crude oil production from Iraq’s southern fields has dropped by 70% since the start of the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran, with the average daily production at 1.3 million barrels, compared with 4.3 million barrels daily before the war began. “Crude storage has reached maximum capacity, and the remaining output after the major cut will be used to supply the country's refineries,” an official from Basra Oil Company told Reuters. The company is the state-owned entity that markets Iraq’s southern oil, which ac ...

Oil Price Surge - Oil prices surged approximately 20% in early trading, reaching their highest levels since July 2022, driven by fears of tighter supply due to the expanding U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran [1][3] - Brent crude futures increased by as much as $18.35, or 19.8%, to $111.04 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose by $15.27, or 16.8%, to $106.17 [3] Market Impact - The ongoing conflict could lead to prolonged higher fuel prices for consumers and businesses globally, even if the conflict resolves quickly, due to damaged facilities and disrupted logistics [5] - Saudi Arabia is attempting to increase oil shipments from the Red Sea, but the volumes are insufficient to compensate for the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [5] Political Developments - Iran appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader, indicating that hardliners remain in control amid the conflict with the U.S. and Israel [2][7] - Israel's military actions have escalated, targeting Iranian commanders in Beirut, which has resulted in significant casualties [4]

Amidst the Iran war, President Trump raising prospects the U .S. may take aim at Cuba next after remarks at the Shield of the America summit today. MSNOW White House reporter Akilah Gardner is in Doral, Florida for us.Akilah, welcome. So what did we hear from the president. Alex, President Trump said today that Cuba is in its last moments of life as it currently functions.The country right now is in crisis after its two main sources of oil both from Venezuela and Mexico have been cut off as a result of U .S ...

Core Insights - Heavy grades of crude oil in the Americas have reached their highest levels in years due to the ongoing Operation Epic Fury against Iran, which has led to increased international benchmark crude oil prices [1] - The Middle East supply squeeze has resulted in higher prices for heavy crude from the US, Canada, and Venezuela, with Iran threatening to target vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil supply [2] - The disruption in supply has increased costs for refiners, likely leading to higher consumer prices for gasoline and diesel fuel [3] Price Movements - Mars sour crude from the US Gulf of Mexico is trading at a $5.50 premium over West Texas Intermediate (WTI), marking a $1.75 increase from the previous day, the highest since April 2020 [3] - Gasoline prices have surpassed $3 per gallon for the first time since November last year, while diesel prices reached $3.19 per gallon, the highest since October 2023 [5][6] Supply Chain Impacts - Iraq's daily output could drop by over three million barrels if tanker movements in the Gulf are impeded, forcing refiners in countries like India and South Korea to seek alternative sources [4] - The Trans Mountain pipeline is operating below full capacity, and Venezuela is offering heavy crude at elevated prices [5] - US WTI crude is trading at a significant discount of up to $8.75 per barrel compared to Brent crude, indicating expectations that US supplies will remain less affected by global events [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Navy's potential involvement in escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has calmed market fears, but significant questions about oil supply and insurance remain [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Early price action in oil markets has stabilized after President Trump's announcement regarding U.S. Navy escorts for tankers, which is crucial as 20% of global oil production passes through the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - Traders are showing signs of uncertainty, with backing and filling patterns indicating a belief that the conflict may be short-lived, despite concerns over Iran's actions expanding the conflict [2]. Group 2: Supply Concerns - Keeping the Strait of Hormuz open is essential to prevent price spikes, but damage to production facilities could lead to prolonged high oil prices, impacting inflation and the global economy [3]. - Reports indicate that U.S. forces have targeted Iranian energy infrastructure, which could affect nearly one-third of global oil production, while Iraq has halved its production and may reduce it further if exports do not resume [5]. Group 3: Inventory Updates - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a surprise increase in oil inventories by 5.6 million barrels, surpassing the forecast of 2.3 million barrels, with an upcoming EIA report expected to show a 3.0 million barrel build [6].

Core Insights - The global oil market is currently experiencing significant disruption, as evidenced by Brent crude's premium over the Dubai benchmark reaching its widest level since 2022 [1][5]. Price Movements - As of Tuesday morning, Brent crude was trading at approximately $83–$84 per barrel, reflecting an increase of over 7% for the day, while Dubai crude remained around $68, showing minimal movement [2]. - The spread between Brent futures and Dubai swaps surged to over $6 per barrel, a significant increase from less than $2 just a week prior to the onset of the Iran conflict [2]. Market Dynamics - Brent serves as the global pricing reference for much of the seaborne oil trade, while Dubai is the key marker for Middle Eastern crude entering Asia. A large premium of Brent over Dubai indicates tightness and risk in Atlantic Basin oil supplies compared to Gulf-linked supplies [3]. - The futures market is reacting in real-time to these risks, pricing in potential shortages even before physical oil flows are visibly affected [3]. Geopolitical Factors - The disruption in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, due to threats from Iran and ongoing military actions, has led to a freeze in shipping activity. This situation has created uncertainty in trading Middle Eastern benchmarks [4]. - The widening gap between Brent and Dubai prices reflects the geopolitical premium being absorbed by Brent, with analysts warning that prolonged disruption could lead to upstream production cuts in the region [5]. Future Outlook - The market is currently debating the duration of the supply risk, with concerns that if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz does not normalize, oil prices could reach $100 per barrel as a potential floor rather than a ceiling [5].

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are rising due to the escalating U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, which raises concerns about supply disruptions from the Middle East [1][3]. Oil Price Movements - Brent crude futures increased to $78.83 per barrel, up $1.10 or 1.4%, with a previous high of $82.37, marking a 6.7% increase [2]. - U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 74 cents or 1% to $71.97 per barrel, with a previous session high since June 2025, settling up 6.3% [3]. Geopolitical Context - The conflict has widened, with Israel conducting airstrikes in Lebanon and Iran targeting energy infrastructure in Gulf countries and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - The Strait of Hormuz is critical, with about 20% of global oil demand transiting through it, alongside significant liquefied natural gas shipments [5]. Shipping and Insurance Concerns - Tankers are avoiding the Strait of Hormuz due to increased insurance cancellations, with Iranian officials claiming the waterway is closed to shipping [6]. - An incident involving a Honduran-flagged fuel tanker being attacked by drones highlights the risks in the region [7]. Market Predictions - Analysts expect elevated oil prices in the coming days, with Bernstein raising its 2026 Brent oil price forecast from $65 to $80 per barrel, and predicting potential prices of $120-$150 in a prolonged conflict scenario [7]. Refined Product Futures - Refined product futures are also rising, with Saudi Arabia shutting down its largest domestic oil refinery following a drone strike [8]. - U.S. ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures increased by 3.1% to $2.991, while gasoline futures rose by 1.1% after a previous climb of 3.7% [8].

Core Insights - The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is critical as it is a vital chokepoint for global oil exports, with potential military actions raising concerns about oil supply disruptions and price increases [4][5][10]. Group 1: Military Actions and Responses - The U.S. and Israel have conducted strikes on Iran, targeting its leadership and military assets, following unsuccessful negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program [2]. - Iran has retaliated with strikes across the Middle East, indicating a potential escalation in regional conflict [2]. Group 2: Oil Supply and Market Impact - The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for oil transport, with around 20% of global petroleum liquids transiting through it daily, equating to over 14.5 million barrels per day of crude and condensate exports [8][9]. - If military operations lead to significant disruptions, oil supply could be impacted by 5 million barrels per day or more, with Brent crude prices potentially rising above $100 per barrel [3][6]. Group 3: Regional Oil Production - The Middle East is home to five of the world's top ten oil producers, with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Iran, and Kuwait accounting for a significant portion of global oil exports [9]. - Iran alone produces 3.2 million barrels of crude oil daily, with a substantial portion exported to China [10]. Group 4: OPEC+ Response - OPEC+ is set to increase production to mitigate rising oil prices and reduce funding for the Iranian regime, although disruptions in shipping could hinder the immediate impact of these production increases [12][14].

Group 1 - OPEC+ is considering a larger-than-expected oil output increase of 411,000 barrels per day due to disruptions in shipments caused by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran [1][1][1] - Oil prices surged to $73 per barrel, the highest since July, amid fears of a wider conflict and supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for over 20% of global oil transit [1][1][1] - The meeting will involve only eight OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, who have historically made most production changes [1][1][1] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that the market impact of any significant OPEC output increase will be limited due to a lack of production capabilities outside Saudi Arabia [1][1][1] - Middle East leaders have warned that a war on Iran could push oil prices above $100 per barrel, with analysts from Barclays echoing this sentiment [1][1][1] - OPEC+ had previously raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April through December 2025, representing roughly 3% of global demand [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are expected to rise significantly due to fears of military conflict in the Persian Gulf, particularly with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran potentially disrupting oil exports [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Predictions - Benchmark Brent crude oil prices reached a seven-month high, closing at $73 on February 27, with expectations of further increases as markets reopen [1][8]. - Barclays analysts predict crude oil prices could reach $100 per barrel due to potential supply disruptions amid escalating tensions in the Middle East [2]. - Energy analysts at Eurasia Group suggest that if the conflict continues, oil prices could increase by $5-10 above the current baseline of $73 [8]. Group 2: Impact on Gas Prices - U.S. gas prices averaged $2.98 per gallon last week, with expectations that the national average will exceed $3 per gallon for the first time this year [5]. - Analysts forecast that gas prices could rise to between $3.10 and $3.15 per gallon in the coming weeks, influenced by the situation in Iran [5]. - The impact of the conflict on gas prices will be gradual, with consumers likely to see increases measured in pennies rather than dollars by late night on March 2 [6]. Group 3: Supply Chain Concerns - The Strait of Hormuz is critical for global oil supply, with approximately 20% of daily oil passing through it; any disruption could significantly affect oil prices [7]. - Analysts note that while there have been no direct attacks on oil and gas assets yet, shipping operators are beginning to withdraw from the area, indicating potential supply chain issues [4].