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Beer Demand Slumps, Margins Squeezed: Why This Analyst Still Likes Constellation
Benzinga· 2025-06-25 19:43
Core Viewpoint - Needham analyst Gerald Pascarelli has reiterated a Buy rating on Constellation Brands, Inc. but has lowered the price forecast from $215 to $195, anticipating a weak start to fiscal year 2026 with first-quarter results expected on July 1 [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - Pascarelli predicts that Constellation Brands will report beer revenue and margins below the lower end of full-year guidance, which may negatively impact Street estimates [1]. - The analyst has reduced his first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) estimate to $3.20, and lowered fiscal year 2026 and fiscal year 2027 EPS estimates to $12.64 and $13.76, respectively [3][5]. - The price forecast of $195 implies a ~20% discount to the company's historical average multiple of ~14x [3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Challenges - Over the past three months, beer volumes have declined sequentially, with a forecasted beer depletion of -3.0%, which is 120 basis points below the -1.8% consensus [2][4]. - Volume trends have weakened since February due to category softness, ongoing consumer challenges, and poor weather in May and early June [3]. - Increased investment spending, particularly in marketing (estimated at 9.5% of sales), along with volume pressure, contributes to a forecasted beer margin of 38.0%, notably below the Street's 39.8% [4]. Group 3: Segment Performance and Guidance - Pascarelli is 10 points below consensus on wine and spirits revenue, expecting a ~30% organic decline, with the Svedka divestiture contributing to a ~5-point hit [5]. - The analyst models a 70% drop in segment operating income due to volume deleverage and distributor repayments [5]. - Despite a weak start to fiscal year 2026, the initial beer guidance was conservative enough to allow the company to meet its full-year targets, with management typically avoiding guidance revisions in the first quarter [6].
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) Earnings Call Presentation
2025-06-25 13:28
Investor Presentation V e r s i o n 8 . 9 . 2 0 2 4 Contents | SWK Overview | Pages 4 – | 13 | | --- | --- | --- | | Tools & Outdoor | Pages 14 – | 23 | | Industrial | Pages 24 – | 28 | | Appendix | Pages 29 – | 36 | Contacts Dennis Lange Vice President, Investor Relations 860-827-3833 dennis.lange@sbdinc.com Christina Francis Director, Investor Relations 860-438-3470 christina.francis@sbdinc.com Christopher Capela Director, Investor Relations 860-827-5556 christopher.capela@sbdinc.com 1000 Stanley Drive Ne ...
General Mills(GIS) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-06-25 12:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For fiscal year 2025, organic net sales decreased by 2%, adjusted operating profit and adjusted diluted EPS were down 7% in constant currency, reflecting a decision to increase investments in response to consumer behavior and market volatility [4][46] - The fourth quarter reported net sales were $4.6 billion, down 3%, with organic net sales also down 3% from the prior year [34][46] - Adjusted operating profit for the fourth quarter was $622 million, down 22% in constant currency, and adjusted diluted EPS totaled $0.74, down 27% in constant currency [35][46] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America Retail's fourth quarter organic net sales were down 7%, lagging Nielsen measured U.S. retail sales by approximately three points [37] - North America Pet segment saw a 3% increase in organic net sales driven by higher volume, outperforming retail sales by roughly three points [39] - North America Foodservice organic net sales decreased by 1% in the quarter, while the International segment posted a 9% increase in organic net sales driven by strong growth in Brazil and distributor markets [42][44] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America Retail faced challenges with a 3% decline in organic net sales for the full year, driven by lower volume and unfavorable price mix [38] - The International segment's full year results rounded to flat, with growth in distributor markets offset by declines in China [44] - The North America Pet segment showed modest organic net sales growth for the full year, with dollar share growth in dog feeding [40] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to restore volume-driven organic sales growth in fiscal 2026 by investing in consumer value, product news, and innovation [3][55] - Key priorities for fiscal 2026 include returning North America Retail to volume growth, accelerating North America Pet growth, and driving efficiency to fund these investments [11][22] - The company plans to leverage its Remarkable Experience framework to assess brands and tailor investments accordingly [12][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates a volatile operating environment in fiscal 2026, with consumers remaining cautious and seeking value amid economic uncertainty [10][11] - The company expects organic sales growth to improve in fiscal 2026, driven by stronger competitiveness and volume outpacing price mix [49] - Input cost inflation and tariff impacts are expected to be headwinds, but the company plans to mitigate these through various strategies [50][51] Other Important Information - The company returned $2.5 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2025 through dividends and net share repurchases [10][48] - A global transformation initiative is expected to generate $100 million in cost savings, which will be reinvested in growth [31][33] - The company plans to launch a new line of fresh pet food, "Love Made Fresh," which is projected to capture significant market share in the growing fresh pet food segment [27][28] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for organic sales growth in fiscal 2026? - The company expects organic net sales to range between down 1% and up 1%, with adjusted operating profit and diluted earnings per share expected to decline by 10% to 15% in constant currency [53] Question: How will the company address input cost inflation and tariffs? - The company anticipates input cost inflation of roughly 3% and additional risks from tariffs, but is working to mitigate these impacts through product reformulation and strategic revenue management [50][51] Question: What are the key priorities for fiscal 2026? - The company has set three clear priorities: returning North America Retail to volume growth, accelerating North America Pet growth, and driving efficiency to support these investments [11][22]
APi Group (APG) Earnings Call Presentation
2025-06-24 13:13
Investor Day Presentation MAY 2025 1 © 2025 APi Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Forward Looking Statements and Disclaimers Please note that in this presentation the Company may discuss events or results that have not yet occurred or been realized, commonly referred to as forward-looking statements. The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a safe harbor for forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of APi Group Corporation ("APi" or the "Company"). Such discussion and statements m ...
Natural Grocers® Invites Mission, Kansas, Customers to Celebrate Store's 10th Anniversary June 27-29, 2025
Prnewswire· 2025-06-24 11:38
Core Insights - Natural Grocers has been a reliable source for organic and natural groceries in Southwest Kansas City since its opening in 2015, adhering to its Five Founding Principles [1][5] - The company celebrates its 10th anniversary in the Mission community, highlighting the alignment of its values with the community's focus on health and wellness [2] Company Overview - Founded in 1955, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NYSE: NGVC) specializes in natural and organic groceries, body care products, and dietary supplements, with strict quality guidelines [5] - The company operates 169 stores across 21 states, providing USDA-certified organic produce and pasture-raised dairy products [5] Anniversary Promotions - To celebrate its 10th anniversary, Natural Grocers is offering limited-time deals for {N}power members, including surprise offers and $10 deals from June 27 to June 29 [3][4] - Customers can join the {N}power rewards program for free to access these offers, which include specific product discounts [4][7]
Natural Grocers® Invites Edmond, Oklahoma, Customers to Celebrate Store's 10th Anniversary June 27-29, 2025
Prnewswire· 2025-06-24 11:22
Since opening its doors at the corner of South Boulevard and 33rd St. in 2015, Natural Grocers has been a trusted source for high-quality, affordable organic and natural groceries, supplements, and household essentials for South Edmond, Oklahoma Christian University students, University of Central Oklahoma students, and the communities of Witcher, Lake Aluma, and Arcadia. The company, founded in 1955, remains committed to its Five Founding Principles providing: Nutrition Education, Quality Products, Always ...
Why Freemium Beats Paid Acquisition
20VC with Harry Stebbings· 2025-06-22 14:00
If you build an amazing free product, it takes way longer. But what you end up building is an organic growth flywheel. Meaning you tell your friends about Dualingo.I don't know if you do, they can go experience the full thing for free. Whether they appear or not, doesn't matter. If they like it, they will also tell their friends.It just expands the entire pie of people who can use your product. And we have a lot of users that use the app for free for 5 years. Eventually, one January, they're like, "Oh, I'm ...
Citizens Financial Announces New Buyback Plan: Is it Worth Watching?
ZACKS· 2025-06-18 18:11
Core Viewpoint - Citizens Financial Group (CFG) is enhancing its shareholder-focused strategy, demonstrating confidence in its long-term performance through an increased share repurchase authorization of $1.5 billion, up from $300 million previously approved in June 2024 [1][8]. Financial Performance - CFG's quarterly dividend has been increased twice in the last five years, with a current payout ratio of 53% and a dividend yield of 4.15% based on a closing price of $40.45 [2]. - CFG's total revenues experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% from 2020 to 2024, with net interest income (NII) growing at a CAGR of 5.3% during the same period [12]. - For 2025, management anticipates NII growth of 3-5% and non-interest income growth of 8-10% [14]. Capital Position - As of March 31, 2025, CFG reported total long-term borrowed funds of $12.3 billion and total available liquidity of $12.2 billion, indicating a strong balance sheet [5]. - The Common Equity Tier 1 ratio was 10.6%, and the total capital ratio was 13.9% as of the same date, reflecting a solid capital position [5]. Growth Strategy - CFG is pursuing growth through acquisitions, cost-cutting programs, and private banking expansion, with notable acquisitions including Investors Bancorp and HSBC's East Coast branches [9][8]. - The "Tapping Our Potential" (TOP) program has delivered consistent cost savings, with TOP 9 achieving $150 million in pre-tax run-rate benefits in 2024, and TOP 10 targeting an additional $100 million in savings by year-end 2025 [10]. Loan and Deposit Trends - CFG's loans and leases and total deposits recorded CAGRs of 3.1% and 4.4%, respectively, from 2020 to 2024, with expectations of continued growth through 2027 [11]. - Despite a dip in loan balances in early 2025, management remains optimistic about sustaining a healthy loan pipeline through a relationship-driven lending model [11]. Expense Management - Non-interest expenses have seen a CAGR of 18.4% from 2020 to 2024, with management projecting a 4% increase in adjusted non-interest expenses for 2025 [15]. - The company is facing elevated expense levels due to investments in private banking and digital infrastructure [15]. Market Performance - CFG shares have increased by 16.3% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 11.1% [17]. - CFG trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.76X, slightly above the industry average of 10.1X [20]. Investment Considerations - CFG's ongoing efficiency initiatives and strategic growth moves provide a solid foundation for future financial growth, despite near-term challenges related to elevated expenses and reliance on commercial lending [24].
Target Hospitality (TH) Earnings Call Presentation
2025-06-18 10:34
Presentation Investor May 2025 Disclaimer Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains statements reflecting assumptions, expectations, projections, intentions or beliefs about future events that are intended as "forward-looking statements." You can identify these statements by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. Management cautions that any or all of Target Hospitality's forward-looking statements may turn out to be wrong. Please ...
Natural Grocers® Announces New Store in Ruidoso, N.M. with Community Meet & Greet and Hiring Event
Prnewswire· 2025-06-17 13:02
Company Overview - Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is a specialty retailer of natural and organic groceries, body care products, and dietary supplements [6] - The company operates 169 stores across 21 states and is headquartered in Lakewood, CO [6] - Natural Grocers is committed to high-quality standards, selling only USDA-certified organic produce and products free from artificial flavors, preservatives, and synthetic colors [6] Hiring Events - Natural Grocers will host a Community Meet & Greet on June 24, 2025, and a two-day Hiring Event on June 25-26, 2025, at the Hotel Ruidoso [1][2] - Positions available include Store Manager ($79K annually), Assistant Store Manager ($59K annually), and various management roles at $18.00 per hour [4] Company Culture & Benefits - The company employs over 4,000 crew members and emphasizes a supportive work environment through its Five Founding Principles [4] - Employees receive competitive pay, including a unique Vitamin Bucks program that offers an extra $1 per hour worked in-store credit [4] - Additional benefits include birthday bonus pay, discounts of up to 30% on products, comprehensive health insurance, a 401K savings plan, and extensive free nutrition education programs [4] Community Commitment - Natural Grocers invests significantly in its employees, with over $15 million allocated for incremental compensation and discretionary payments in fiscal year 2024 [6] - The company promotes a commitment to community and crew, aligning with its founding principles [6]