Stephen, how much risk premium then has been factored in levels we see today, given the upside pressure on oil prices is now relatively muted in the context of this significant geopolitical event. You know, oil prices are still up 10% since Israel launched the strikes on Iranian nuclear sites about two weeks ago. A week and a half ago.So we are still in a risk premium situation. Prices are higher than where the fundamentals show. But I think today's move in the market is pretty indicative of where we stand. ...

22 June 2025 | 7:49PM EDT Commodity Comment: Upside Risks to Energy Prices Rise as Iran Conflict Escalates Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Samantha Dart +1(212)357-9428 | samantha.dart@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ephraim Sutherland +1(972)368-0395 | ephraim.sutherland@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Goldman Sachs Commodity Comment Upside Risks to Energy Prices Rise as Iran Co ...

June 17, 2025 04:01 AM GMT North American Energy | North America Navigating Geopolitical Risks & Stronger Oil WTI has rallied ~20% in June alongside rising geopolitical risks. Near-term strength could continue, but prices are biased lower in 2H25 absent supply disruption. Post recent moves, we revisit views across the Energy Sector. From here, we remain selective with a defensive bias & prefer gas over oil. Key Takeaways The Extel Survey is now open. We would greatly appreciate your support for the Joy.Golu ...

June 20, 2025 04:27 AM GMT Energy Sub-Sector Playbook June 2025 Marketing Deck 2025 June 19, 2025 Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Devin McDermott Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist Devin.McDermott@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1125 Joe Laetsch, CFA Equity Analyst Joe.Laetsch@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-8804 Robert S. Kad Equity Analyst Robert.Kad@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0065 Dan Kutz, CFA Equity Analyst Dan.Kutz@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0899 Brian Gibbons, CFA Credit Analyst Brian.Gibbons@morgansta ...

18 June 2025 | 10:22PM CEST Big Oils 2Q25 preview: Looking for differentiated growth, cash returns and resilience in an uncertain macro With 2Q coming to an end, we publish our early take on the European Oils' 2Q25 earnings. In an uncertain macro environment, we look for idiosyncratic growth stories (Galp and Repsol, see our Top projects analysis), resilient and superior cash returns (Shell), and asset monetization optionality (Eni and Galp). We remain well below consensus on 2026 earnings and maintain a ca ...

Let's talk about another economic side of the story and that is risk that is insurance because insurers everywhere are no doubt trying to figure out how to price in risk that exists and risk that may exist or may not in 3 6 12 months. Contessa Bur covers insurers here for us at CNBC and joins us now with this side of the story. So, Brian Morgan, what I heard from the head of aviation and marine for Lloyd's Market Association told me that ships already are notifying their insurers of their planned transit th ...

I don't know what you think the probability is of Iran actually doing what they threatened to many times before and never have done choking off the strait entirely. But do they have potentially just as disruptive secondary options available to them. When we think about all of the energy infrastructure in this region.Great. Yeah, no, thank you. It's great to be with you.I think Iran will be very cautious and careful about attempting to fully disrupt the 18 to 20 million barrels a day of oil, 20% of traded LN ...

are finding ways to mitigate some of the impact on consumers. >> Let's get reaction from our guest, Charles Schwab senior investment strategist Kevin Gordon. Kevin, good to have you here.So you heard Daly saying things look good. Now, you've also talked in the past about the impact policy uncertainty is having on business confidence. How do you see that playing out in the markets for the rest of the summer.>> Yeah. Well, so far I mean the uncertainty has been more on the, you know, survey based side of thin ...

夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月20日 南华贵金属日报: 金震银调 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场金震银调，最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3387.4美元/盎司，-0.61%；美白银2507合约 收报于36.36美元/盎司，-1.5%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报781.24元/克，-0.49%；SHFE白银2508合约 收8819元/千克，-1.91%。目前市场聚焦于中东局势进展，美国接下来是否可能直接军事介入以伊冲突。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为89.7%，降息25个基点的概率为 10.3%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为31.7%，累计降息25个基点的概率为61.7%，累计降息50个基点的 概率为6.7%；美联储10月维持利率不变的概率15.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为46.3%，累计降息50个基 点的概率为34.9%，累计降息75个基点的概率为3.4%。长线基金看，SPDR黄金ETF持仓维持在947.37吨； iShares白银ETF持仓维持在14763吨。 ...

Global Commodities Research 13 June 2025 J P M O R G A N Global Commodities The Week in Commodities At Any Rate: Aluminum's premium paralysis Global Commodities Research Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Tracey Allen (44-20) 7134-6732 tracey.l.allen@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc This is a summary note that consolidates the latest views of our global commodity strategists published over the week; to read detailed reports, refer to the hyperlinks. It ...