Our next guest is Republican House member uh who opposed President Trump's big bill as of late yesterday, but overnight he voted to move forward with the bill. Joining us right now is Congressman Ralph Norman, Republican of South Carolina. You were outspoken uh on the other side of this bill, sir.And here we are this morning. What has changed. Well, we we had a lot of problems with uh the Senate changing our bill up, mainly adding to the deficit to the tune of with interest right at 100 $1.2% trillion.We we ...

Healthcare & Social Welfare Policy - The GOP bill is considered "cruel and shameless" with potentially long-term negative impacts on Americans and the healthcare system [4] - The bill could lead to 17 million Americans losing healthcare due to cuts to Medicaid and the ACA [10] - The bill proposes cutting $1 trillion from Medicaid and half a trillion dollars from Medicare [10] - The bill impacts Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security, despite pledges not to [8][11] Political Strategy & Tactics - House rules limit the minority party's ability to influence legislation [3] - Democrats are using procedural tactics, press conferences, and public outreach to oppose the bill [5][12] - Democrats are highlighting the potential negative impacts of the bill on specific districts and constituents [20][21] - Democrats are calling out Republicans who express concerns about the bill but are expected to vote in favor [20][22] Economic Impact & Tax Policy - The bill is described as a "tax scam" that transfers wealth from the working and middle class to the wealthiest Americans [26] - A temporary "no tax on tips" provision is contrasted with permanent tax cuts for the wealthy [25][26] - 60% of households in the country are unable to meet basic needs, and the bill exacerbates income inequality [28]

Political & Economic Analysis - The new bill is perceived as a reverse Robin Hood budget, transferring wealth from the poor to the rich [1][2] - Soft stagflation is anticipated, with rising inflation and a potentially softening labor market due to an economic slowdown [4] - Public opinion, even according to Fox News polls, is largely against the bill by 20 points, even before its effects are felt [7] - Democrats have an opportunity to capitalize on the bill's unpopularity and the Republican party's perceived lack of fiscal responsibility [8][10] - Economic populism is suggested as a counter-narrative to cultural populism, using the bill as an example [10] Midterm Elections & Political Strategy - The White House acknowledges potential blowback in the midterm elections, historically challenging for a president's first term [12][13] - The administration aims to fulfill campaign promises, including tax cuts, despite midterm election concerns [11][12] - Democrats are considering making JD Vance the face of the bill, particularly looking ahead to the 2028 presidential election, though focusing on Donald Trump and the Republican party as a whole may be more effective in the midterms [14][15][16] - The Republican party may struggle to credibly advocate for fiscal responsibility after Donald Trump's first term, during which the debt increased [8] - A past attempt to privatize social security under George Bush is cited as a cautionary tale of pursuing unpopular policies [17][18]

Bill Overview - The bill extends and amplifies tax cuts initially enacted by the Trump administration in 2017 [2] - To offset the budget deficit created by the tax cuts, the bill significantly reduces funding for green energy programs, Medicaid, higher education, and food stamps [2] - The bill effectively repeals significant portions of the Affordable Care Act [3] Impact on Healthcare - Over 10 million people are expected to lose Medicaid coverage due to the bill's work requirements [5] - The work requirements are not expected to incentivize work, as Medicaid provides health coverage, not cash benefits [6][12][13][14] - Loss of Medicaid coverage may lead to facility closures, particularly in rural areas, and reduced access to preventative care [7][8] - Estimates suggest the bill could lead to tens of thousands, potentially as many as 50,000, deaths per year [4][8] Political Implications - Polling indicates that the bill is currently unpopular [9] - Republican pollsters believe they can increase support by rebranding the bill to emphasize work requirements for Medicaid [10][25] - The bill may negatively impact low-income Republican voters who rely on Medicaid and SNAP [19][20] - Democrats have an opportunity to message against the bill by highlighting the removal of healthcare from working-class Americans to fund tax cuts for the wealthy [29][30] - Republicans may attempt to distract from the bill's negative impacts by focusing on immigration and border security [27]

Economic Growth & Tax Policy - The legislation aims to make tax cuts permanent, a policy in place for 7 years, to stimulate economic growth [1] - The administration projects 2.8% growth, contrasting with the CBO's 1.8% projection over the next 10 years [1] - The policy of giving Americans more of their hard-earned money is expected to improve lives and drive economic growth [1] - The President's leadership is expected to bring in $15 trillion in investment [1] Impact on Workers & Industries - The bill includes no taxes on tips and overtime, benefiting working men and women [1] - The legislation aims to help seniors with changes related to no taxes on social security [1] - The elimination of taxes on tips is expected to benefit restaurant employees and the restaurant industry [1] Legislative Process & Political Context - The reconciliation bill is back in the House with a deadline, aiming to pass legislation similar to what the House initially sent [1] - The bill is considered a "big beautiful bill" that is generational and historic, aligning with Donald Trump's agenda [1] - The legislation is framed as "the Americans, the people's bill" [1]

Financial Impact - The tax cuts would provide the wealthiest households with a $12,000 annual increase [1] - The tax cuts would cost the poorest people $1,600 annually [1] - The bill would add $3.3 trillion to the national debt [14] - The tax cuts will become permanent and cost $4 trillion [6] Healthcare & Social Safety Net - An estimated 118 million more Americans would be uninsured by 2034 if the bill becomes law [1] - 3 million more people will not qualify for food stamps (SNAP benefits) [1] - The bill involves money being taken from Medicaid [6] Political Strategy & Impact - Democrats view the bill as potentially beneficial for their prospects in the 2026 midterms [5] - The legislation presents Democrats with an opportunity to highlight issues like healthcare accessibility and affordability [10] - There is a disconnect as Democrats are not doing enough messaging around the specific stories of Americans that will be harmed by this legislation [12] - The Republican party has shifted, with less focus on debt reduction and small government due to changes in their voter base [15][16][17]

Deficit and Spending - The analysis indicates authorization of $3.8 trillion in deficit increases without offsetting measures, potentially signaling an end to constraints on congressional spending [1] - Repeal of IRA tax cuts significantly impacts energy stocks [2] Consumer Impact - Tariffs are viewed as a tax on US consumers, generating approximately $400 billion for the US Treasury [3] - New stimulus to the US consumer amounts to $166 billion, resulting in a net loss for the consumer when compared to tariff revenue [3][4] Healthcare Sector - Medicaid cuts are expected to have a substantial impact on hospitals [2]

Now to breaking news on Capitol Hill where senators just voted to pass the so-called big beautiful bill. That's right. It happened just moments ago and really it's been a marathon session there in the Senate as lawmakers race to get this bill passed uh by a self-imposed July 4th deadline.Julie Circin joins us now from her post. Uh Julie, what's interesting about this to me is is Vance broke this 50-50 tie, but but this is just to reset the scene for our viewers. is really the bulk of President Donald Trump' ...

Fiscal Policy & Economic Impact - The Trump administration's spending bill is projected to increase the US deficit by $33 trillion [1] - White House officials claim the bill will protect and strengthen Medicaid for the needy, pregnant women, children, and sick Americans [2] - The administration projects 3% growth from the bill, adding $4 trillion to revenue, positioning it as a deficit reducer [2] - Economists criticize the GOP for using "accounting creative writing" to mask the $4 trillion cost of the tax bill [3] - The White House Council of Economic Advisers believes the bill will reduce the national debt, a claim considered absurd by some economists [8] Market & Investor Sentiment - Despite concerns about US debt, the stock market initially reacted positively to the bill [10] - The bond market is less enthusiastic than the stock market, and the dollar has performed poorly against other currencies [11] - Some believe the stock market's optimism is fueled by hopes that AI will change the world [11] Trade & Tariffs - Negotiations are slowing because President Trump threatens to impose more tariffs even after a deal [12] - No one has permission to make actual deals for the United States except for the president [13] - Imposing new tariffs upsets the apple cart and restarts negotiations from scratch [14] - The president could tear up trade agreements and demand new ones, undermining commitment [15] Immigration & Labor - The Trump administration is rethinking deportation policies for migrants working in industries like hospitality and agriculture [17] - The administration is considering a temporary pass for farm workers where farmers can have some control [18] - Uncertainty around immigration policies makes it difficult for farmers and hospitality companies to plan, as workers may not show up due to fear of ICE [22]

Tonight, all the focus is on the Senate floor. All day long, senators have been voting on amendments to Donald Trump's gargantuan tax and spending bill. Republicans are rushing to get the bill to Trump's desk in time for his Friday deadline.Now, Donald Trump wants you to focus on his campaign promises that are in the bill, extending the tax cuts from his first term, billions of dollars for border security, and eliminating taxes on tips and overtime. But let's level set about what else this bill will do. It ...