Tariff Strategy & Trade Policy - The administration's entire tariff strategy is questioned if the Supreme Court doesn't rule in its favor [1] - The president possesses various other authorities, including 232s, 301s, and 338s, to implement trade policies [5][6] - Existing trade deals with Japan and Europe, covering autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, are expected to remain durable [5][6] - Europe is reportedly paying the US 15% while US exporters pay zero, indicating an asymmetric trade relationship [7] - Japan has allocated $550 billion for projects aligned with the president's objectives, such as bringing semiconductor manufacturing back to the US [8] Economic Growth & Investment - Over $500 billion a year is reportedly coming in, potentially due to the president's policies [6] - CEOs have reportedly committed an additional $600 billion in investment in America [19] - The economy is projected to experience significant growth in the coming months, driven by investments in plants and factories [16][17] - The current GDP growth is at 3%, with expectations for continued growth throughout the year [17] Data Credibility & Agency Alignment - There are concerns about the credibility of jobs numbers following changes in leadership at the BLS [10] - The administration aims to remove individuals perceived as being against the president to ensure accurate data reporting [15] - The goal is to have agencies aligned with the president's agenda to provide correct numbers and support America's success [12][13]

All right, President Trump signing an executive order Thursday that will allow tariffs on auto and other imports from Japan to be coming in at much lower rates, 15% versus the 25 to 27 1.5%. Uh joining us right now to talk about this is Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik and SE Secretary Lutnik, thank you for being with us today. Let's walk through how this kind of played out and what the specific details are in this agreement. All right. So the Japanese in order to buy down their tariff rate, so they had a 2 ...

Trade Policy & Legal Challenges - The Supreme Court is considering the legality of Trump's AIPA tariffs, which account for a significant portion of the $180 billion+ collected by the government this fiscal year [3] - A ruling against the tariffs could force the Trump administration to offer refunds, potentially causing chaos [3][4] - Experts note that a rapid decision from the Supreme Court is rare, usually requiring a hard deadline [6] - The Supreme Court may side with lower courts, finding that the president lacks the authority to impose these tariffs under the 1977 International Economic Power Emergency Act [9][10] - A base case scenario suggests a 50-65% probability that the Supreme Court will rule against the president's authority [12] Potential Economic Impact - Sectors like furniture, lumber, timber, aircraft, trucking, pharma, and semis could be aggressively hit if the AIPA authority is overruled [13][14] - Domestic importers, like those selling learning materials and companies like John Deere and Caterpillar, want refunds with interest if the tariffs are deemed illegal [17] - Refunds could amount to roughly $150 billion to $300 billion, creating a complicated process for the Treasury [18] - If the Supreme Court rejects the tariffs, Trump could still implement tariffs on specific sectors or pursue Section 301 investigations, similar to those already in place on $350 billion worth of goods from China [19][20] - Congress could grant the president the authority to tariff every single import, potentially costing the average family $2,700 per year [21] Tech Industry & White House - President Trump is hosting top business, political, and tech leaders, including Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, and Tim Cook, at the White House [23][25] - The event is being called the "Rose Garden Club" and is seen as a way for Trump to showcase the remodeled Rose Garden patio [26][27]

'All risk, no reward': China spectacle shows dangers of Trump trade policy https://t.co/8eE2Qr66fL ...

overseas where Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese leader Xihinping as well as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a summit in China yesterday. As the New York Times reports, it was a scene almost certainly intended for an audience on the other side of the world. The leaders of China, Russia, and India, the three largest powers not aligned with the West, smiling and laughing like good friends as they greeted each other.Analysts told the paper the friendliness between Mr. . Shei and Mr. . Pu ...

Impact of Immigration Policies and Raids - Raids and immigration policy changes have instilled fear in the immigrant workforce, leading to potential self-deportation [1] - Accommodation and food services sectors in California, heavily reliant on immigrant labor, are particularly vulnerable [1] - Businesses in Los Angeles experienced a chilling effect, impacting tourism, with Open Table data showing a 3% year-on-year dining decline from June 7th to 21st [1] - One restaurant in downtown LA saw a 70% sales decline in June due to closures and curfews [1] Economic Contributions of Immigrants - Undocumented immigrants in California contribute approximately 23 billion dollars annually in state, federal, and local taxes [1] - Nearly half of their 10 billion dollars in state and local taxes come from sales and excise taxes due to their spending power [1] Trade and Tariffs - California faces the highest tariff burden in the US, totaling 113 billion dollars [1] - Businesses are facing increased costs due to tariffs on imported goods, such as French wine and Japanese sake [1] Business Environment Challenges - Businesses are facing a challenging environment due to the pandemic, Hollywood writer strikes, fires, and a tougher local regulatory landscape [1]

Investment & Economic Outlook - US orders for business equipment increased in July more than projected [1] - Companies are moving forward on investment plans [1] - Trade and tax policy uncertainty gradually diminishes [1]

Group 1 - The de minimis exemption, allowing duty-free entry for shipments valued under $800, is set to end following President Trump's executive order, impacting postal carriers across Europe [2][3] - Major European postal services, including those in Germany, Spain, France, Belgium, Finland, Denmark, and others, are suspending shipments to the U.S. due to the inability to adapt their systems to the new customs requirements [4][5][6] - The suspension of shipments is expected to primarily affect smaller orders from American consumers purchasing from smaller European businesses, while larger retailers are less impacted as they typically do not rely on the de minimis exemption [8][9] Group 2 - DHL has announced it will no longer accept parcels destined for the U.S. due to unresolved questions regarding customs duties and data transmission to U.S. Customs and Border Protection [4] - Spain's national post office, Correos, indicated that it requires more time to adjust its systems to comply with the new requirements, leading to a suspension of shipments [5][6] - Finland's post office has stopped accepting all postal items bound for the U.S., including gifts and letters, due to airline refusals to transport these items [7]

Key Individuals and Their Roles - Scott Bessant, previously a hedge fund manager focused on predicting outcomes, now shapes outcomes by presenting President Trump with options [1][2][4] - Stan Druckenmiller, Bessant's mentor, is considered potentially the best investor in modern history [2] - Steve Mnuchin, Trump's former administration member, provides insight on succeeding within the Trump administration [9] Bessant's Position and Influence - Bessant has the ear of the president, which is viewed positively from a market perspective [3] - Bessant's role is to present options and potential outcomes to President Trump, rather than offering advice [4] - The industry is closely watching for potential actions or resignation of Bessant, drawing parallels to the high turnover in Trump's first term [7][8] Trade Policy and Tariffs - In 2024, Bessant advocated against maximalist tariffs, suggesting a possible global 10% tariff [11] - Currently, Bessant embraces Trump's maximum pressure campaign on trade, claiming it has yielded results [12] Investment Philosophy - Bessant identified opportunities in the clash between theory and practice, now applying this in his current role [6] - Bessant transitioned from studying practitioners (central bank governors and finance ministers) to being under scrutiny himself [7]

The way MAGA paints it, Trump’s trade policy is a triumph, because other countries are eating higher tariffs, while US Customs rakes in nigh on $30bn a month.This a fundamental misunderstanding of trade https://t.co/2JyXDAyWyt ...