M Morgan Stanley Research: Key Forecasts Next 12 Months Outlook: Our High-Conviction Calls Skewed to the Downside: The broad imposition of tariffs by the US is a structural shock to the global trading order. The tariffs themselves and the associated uncertainty will weigh notably on growth, but given the strong starting point coming into the year, we do not expect a global recession. Despite recent tariff announcements, we still expect baseline tariff rates to remain the same as our outlook, and we expect t ...

9 June 2025 | 4:57AM EDT n China freight flows (week ending Thursday, June 5) finally showed a sequential uptick in laden vessels from China to the US (+9%), with still steep but a bit less of a YOY decline (-25% vs -31%). The YOY declines, however, still show that if the consumer remains resilient – we would likely need more goods at some point in 2H25. o Port Optimizer sequentials tend to support the notion that China should continue to show sequential upticks in aggregate over the next two weeks as the e ...

June 5, 2025 04:01 AM GMT Insurance - Property & Casualty | North America Loss Reserving: Tariff Impact Should Introduce More Volatility While the ultimate impact from tariffs remains unknown, these uncertainties could introduce more volatility to reserving in the near term. Specifically, we believe that insurers are likely to see a wider range of reserving outcomes within the property lines. Tariffs introduce more unknowns to reserving, potentially impacting companies that rely on favorable property reserv ...

Recent EU and to a lesser extent US economic data have surprised to the upside - our proprietary economic risk measure now less negative vs. 3m ago - challenging our initial recessionary scenario (Scenario 1 - here). While some front-loading of exports might be temporarily boosting Q2'25 EU growth, we expect momentum to fade later this year, aligning with our base case of weaker growth in Q3-Q4'25. With the US administration considering a 50% tariff on EU goods, our downside scenario implies an effective ta ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net sales of $452,200,000 for Q2 2025, a 70% increase compared to the same period in 2024, primarily driven by the Tymon acquisition [13] - Net income for the quarter was $20,500,000 or $0.44 per diluted share, compared to $15,400,000 or $0.46 per diluted share in Q2 2024 [13] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 54.7% to $61,900,000 compared to $40,000,000 in the same period last year [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American Fenestration segment net sales decreased by 5.5% to $151,000,000, with estimated volume decline of approximately 7% year over year [15] - European Fenestration segment revenue increased by 8.3% to $61,300,000, with estimated volume up approximately 9% year over year [16][17] - North American Cabinet Components segment reported net sales of $51,200,000, with estimated volume decline of approximately 3% [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In North America, volumes increased month over month in Q2, but year-over-year volume declined due to low consumer confidence related to higher interest rates [7][8] - European market conditions were negatively impacted by higher interest rates and geopolitical conflicts, but market share gains in specific product lines helped offset weaknesses [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on the integration of the Tymon acquisition, expecting to realize cost synergies of approximately $45,000,000, a 50% increase from the original target [6] - The second phase of integration will focus on market expansion, operational optimization, new product development, and product line analysis [7] - The company aims to drive above-market growth and improve margin profiles, aligning with its profitable growth strategy [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in minimizing tariff impacts through localized supply chains and pricing mechanisms [8][9] - The company reaffirmed its net sales guidance of approximately $1,840,000,000 to $1,860,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $270,000,000 to $280,000,000 for fiscal 2025 [21] - Management noted that the integration is shifting towards growth-focused projects that will drive margin expansion [11] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $23,500,000 of its stock in Q2 and has $35,600,000 remaining on its share repurchase program [10][11] - Cash provided by operating activities was $28,500,000 for Q2 2025, down from $33,100,000 in Q2 2024 [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more details on raising the synergy target from $30,000,000 to $45,000,000? - Management indicated that the increase is due to operational efficiencies and additional sourcing synergies identified during the integration process [27] Question: Has the tariff issue created opportunities for domestic sourcing? - Management confirmed that the domestic manufacturing footprint has led to increased quoting opportunities and successful spot purchases, particularly in the cabinet segment [30][31] Question: Where in the Tymon portfolio have cost synergies been realized faster than expected? - The procurement side has shown more opportunities than originally estimated, along with higher synergies from corporate functions [38] Question: Is the $6,500,000 in intangible asset amortization a good run rate for the future? - Management confirmed that the Q2 figure is a reasonable run rate, with an adjusted D&A guidance of around $60,000,000 for the year [39]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net sales of $452.2 million for Q2 2025, a 70% increase compared to the same period in 2024, primarily driven by the Tymon acquisition [14] - Net income for the quarter was $20.5 million or $0.44 per diluted share, compared to $15.4 million or $0.46 per diluted share in Q2 2024 [14] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 54.7% to $61.9 million compared to $40 million in the same period last year [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American Fenestration segment net sales decreased by 5.5% to $151 million, with estimated volume decline of approximately 7% year over year [16] - European Fenestration segment revenue increased by 8.3% to $61.3 million, with estimated volume up approximately 9% year over year [17] - North American Cabinet Components segment reported net sales of $51.2 million, with estimated volume decline of approximately 3% [18] - Tymon business reported net sales of $190.1 million, with an estimated revenue decline of approximately 2% due to soft market demand [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In North America, volumes increased month over month in Q2, but year-over-year volume declined due to low consumer confidence related to higher interest rates [7][8] - In Europe, consumer confidence was negatively impacted by higher interest rates and geopolitical conflicts, but market share gains in specific product lines helped offset weaknesses [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on integrating the Tymon acquisition, expecting to realize cost synergies of approximately $45 million, a 50% increase from the original target [6] - The integration strategy includes geographic expansion, operational optimization, new product development, and portfolio analysis, aligned with a profitable growth strategy [7] - The company aims to drive above-market growth and improve margin profiles [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in minimizing tariff impacts by localizing supply chains and utilizing surcharge pricing mechanisms [10] - The company reaffirmed net sales guidance of approximately $1.84 billion to $1.86 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $270 million to $280 million for fiscal 2025 [22] - Management noted that the integration is shifting towards growth-focused projects that will drive margin expansion [12] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $23.5 million of its stock in Q2 2025 and has $35.6 million remaining on its share repurchase program [11] - Cash provided by operating activities was $28.5 million, down from $33.1 million in Q2 2024, impacted by the integration of the Tymon acquisition [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more details on raising the synergy target from $30 million to $45 million? - Management indicated that the increase is due to operational efficiencies and procurement synergies identified during the integration process [26][27] Question: Has the tariff issue created opportunities for domestic sourcing? - Management confirmed that the domestic manufacturing footprint has led to increased quoting opportunities and successful spot purchases, particularly in the cabinet segment [29][30] Question: Where in the Tymon portfolio have cost synergies been realized faster than expected? - The main area of faster realization has been in procurement, with additional synergies identified in corporate functions such as finance and HR [37][38] Question: Is the $6.5 million in intangible asset amortization a good run rate for the future? - Management stated that Q2 is a decent run rate for intangible amortization, with a full-year guidance of around $60 million for adjusted D&A [39]

2 June 2025 | 10:42PM HKT Xtep International Holdings (1368.HK): Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day: Full-year outlook reiterated; confidence in Saucony's Bottom line: We hosted Xtep Group at our Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day on Jun 2. Key takeaways include 1) Full year guidance reiterated in view of YTD trend, i.e. deliver positive sales growth at group level (Saucony/Merrell is guided to deliver 30%-40% sales growth) and >10% yoy NP growth. 2) Xtep core: discount level stayed broadly stable in 2Q-to-date ...

Core Insights - Lululemon exceeded Wall Street expectations for fiscal first-quarter earnings but lowered its full-year earnings guidance due to a challenging macroeconomic environment [1][2] - The company's shares fell approximately 20% in after-hours trading following the announcement [1] Financial Performance - For the fiscal first quarter, Lululemon reported a net income of $314 million, or $2.60 per share, compared to $321 million, or $2.54 per share, in the same quarter last year [5] - First-quarter revenue increased to $2.37 billion, up from about $2.21 billion during the same period in 2024 [5] - Comparable sales rose 1% year over year, which was below the anticipated 3% [9] Earnings Guidance - The company revised its full-year earnings per share guidance to a range of $14.58 to $14.78, down from the previous range of $14.95 to $15.15 [2] - For the second quarter, Lululemon expects earnings per share between $2.85 and $2.90, compared to Wall Street's expectation of $3.29 [7] Revenue Expectations - Lululemon anticipates second-quarter revenue to be between $2.54 billion and $2.56 billion, while full-year revenue is expected to remain unchanged at $11.15 billion to $11.3 billion [6] Market Context - The company is facing challenges from tariffs and a slowing U.S. economy, similar to other retailers who have also reduced their guidance [3][4] - Competitors in the athleticwear sector, such as Gap and Nike, are also adjusting their strategies in response to tariff impacts [4] Manufacturing and Supply Chain - In 2024, 40% of Lululemon's products were manufactured in Vietnam, with significant portions also produced in Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Bangladesh [8] - The company relies on suppliers for manufacturing and does not own any production facilities [8] Margins and Stock Performance - Gross margin for the quarter was 58.3%, exceeding the expected 57.7% [9] - As of the latest close, Lululemon's stock has declined about 13% year-to-date [9]

Core Insights - PVH Corporation reported better-than-expected results for Q1 FY2025, with earnings and revenues exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate, although earnings declined year-over-year while revenues increased [1][2] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings were $2.30 per share, down 6.1% from $2.45 in the prior year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.24 and the company's guidance of $2.10-$2.25 [2] - Revenues increased by 2% year-over-year to $1.984 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $1.936 billion [6] - Gross profit was $1.16 billion, a decrease of 3.2% year-over-year, with a gross margin contraction of 280 basis points to 58.6% [9] - Adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses remained nearly flat at $1 billion, while adjusted earnings before interest and taxes totaled $160.5 million, down 17.7% from the previous year [10] Segment Performance - EMEA revenues grew by 5% year-over-year, while Americas revenues increased by 7%, driven by wholesale growth [12][13] - APAC revenues fell by 13% due to a tough consumer environment, particularly in China [14] - Calvin Klein segment revenues were flat year-over-year, while Tommy Hilfiger revenues rose by 3% [15] Future Outlook - For Q2 FY2025, revenues are projected to rise low-single digits year-over-year, with adjusted EPS expected in the range of $1.85-$2, lower than $3.01 from the previous year [18][19] - For fiscal 2025, the company anticipates revenues to be flat to slightly up year-over-year, with adjusted operating margin expected to be around 8.5%, down from earlier guidance of flat to slightly up from 10% [20][21] Strategic Initiatives - PVH is focused on enhancing brand impact through solid product offerings and marketing campaigns, aiming to strengthen its key brands in the latter half of 2025 [3] - The company is committed to its multi-year cost savings plan, Growth Driver 5, to support growth in the second half of the fiscal year [3]

One of the most exciting growth stories in the market is that of Hims & Hers Health Inc. NYSE: HIMS. This company has combined the growth and efficiency aspects of the technology sector with the safety and stability of the medical sector. With this mixture in the business model, investors have the best of both worlds, allowing them to move forward with further upside potential. Hims & Hers Health Today HIMS Hims & Hers Health $53.78 -0.95 (-1.74%) $72.98 P/E Ratio 122.23 Price Target $38.00 Add to Watchlist ...