For those of us who have been talking about boy school forever, just to be able to say things like take profits is the essence of the business. And the problem with gold right now is it's so extended versus virtually every moving average 200 day, 60 month, whatever. It just if it doesn't have a normal 20 to 25% draw down from the peak, it would be very weird.That's why I view gold right here as very scary for the implications for what it means for other markets, particularly the crude oil dropping extent of ...

Market Volatility & Hedging - The market exhibits "sticky skew," indicating persistent demand for hedges despite recent market turmoil, suggesting underlying bearish sentiment [3][4] - Institutional investors remain reluctant in the rally, maintaining a bearish outlook despite resilient retail buying [8] - Low correlation among AI-related stocks and Mag Seven names may lead to increased volatility if correlations rise [15][16][17] Generational Investing & Market Psychology - Investors born before the 2008 financial crisis are more risk-averse due to past experiences, while those born after are more inclined to "buy the dip" [6][7][9] - Retail investors have shown resilience and continue to "buy the dip," contrasting with the more cautious approach of institutional investors [7][8] - The market's current state is described as a "paddling duck market," appearing calm on the surface but with underlying instability [17] Potential Market Risks - A multi-standard deviation drawdown could test the "buy the dip" mentality, potentially leading to increased hedging activity [11] - The intercorrelation of AI and Mag Seven stocks is not being reflected, which could lead to volatility [14][15]

We couldn't agree more. It is and indeed a very weird market. You know, things that you historically could rely on you can no longer rely on.I mean, who ever would have thought that the kind of volatility we're seeing in developed market currencies versus the emerging market currencies are doing relatively okay. And that kind of feeds into the whole theme around gold as well. You know, Danny, we've heard three big arguments as to why we're seeing the volatility in gold or why gold has actually been the best ...

Bitcoin slides below $108,000; volatility to continue amid US-China tensions: analyst https://t.co/vDuelWAiAB ...

Gold Market Analysis - Gold and silver have seen record inflows of $342 billion (3420 亿) over the past 10 weeks [1] - Central banks have been buying 1,000 to 1,100 tons of gold each year for the last four years, doubling the previous decade's purchases [2] - Central bank buying is seen as hedging against their own ineptitude [3] Volatility Assessment - The VIX volatility index was slightly above 18, after peaking above 28 on Friday [4] - A VIX spike occurred despite a relatively innocuous market move, suggesting leverage in the system [5] - Bouts of volatility are expected to continue for the remainder of the year [5]

Group 1 - Gold and silver have seen record inflows of $34.2 billion over the past 10 weeks, marking the largest surge ever recorded [1] - Central banks have been purchasing gold at a record pace, acquiring between 1,000 to 1,100 tons annually over the last four years, which is double the previous decade's purchases [2] - The price of gold has been significantly influenced by central bank actions, with current prices being twice that of the previous decade [2] Group 2 - The volatility index (VIX) experienced a significant drop from a high above 28 to just above 18, indicating a collapse in volatility from Friday to Monday [4] - The recent spike in the VIX was not due to a market selloff, suggesting underlying leverage in the system that the index is attempting to detect [5] - Despite the recent decrease in the VIX, volatility is expected to remain a concern for investors for the remainder of the year [5]

Market Volatility & Leverage - The crypto market experienced volatility, particularly in altcoins, highlighting concerns about leverage [1][2] - Offshore futures trading, though representing less than 2% of Bitcoin's total value, accounts for 70% or more of trading volume, contributing to market volatility [3] - Excessive leverage, such as 100x on platforms, can lead to significant liquidations, as seen in the $19 billion liquidation event, harming investors and increasing market volatility [9][10] Bitcoin vs Altcoins - Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a distinct asset class, a "digital gold," separate from other cryptocurrencies that are more akin to technology bets on blockchain innovation [4] - The vast majority of crypto assets, by number, are considered worthless, requiring investors to be cautious, especially when using leverage [5][17] Regulatory Landscape - The GENIUS Act, providing regulatory clarity for stablecoins, is a significant milestone, with potential for broader adoption in cross-border payments and financial market transactions [19] - The CLARITY Act, addressing crypto market structure, is still under legislative consideration, while regulatory agencies are working to establish frameworks for the crypto space [19][20] Digital Asset Treasuries - Interest in the digital asset treasury construct has waned, with multiples to NAV retreating, potentially impacting business models reliant on trading at a premium [14][15]

Carlyle CEO Harvey Schwartz says recent volatility in credit markets is on his "worry list". https://t.co/CkPbTDoJaa ...

Carlyle’s Harvey Schwartz said recent volatility in credit markets is on his “worry list” as the firm’s chief executive officer, but so far he sees nothing that suggestions conditions are deteriorating. https://t.co/WQ2zEU1qtf ...

Market Structure & Volatility - Market structure analysis provides accurate insights into market movements [2] - The probability of volatility returning in late Q3 or early Q4 was observed [3] - Market movements are often mathematical and predictable, not solely driven by news [5] - The "123 rule" suggests a relationship between SPY movement (1%), underlying stock basket movement (2%), and momentum (3%) [6] - Narrowing spreads in SPY (50-60 basis points) can signal potential market trouble [6] Institutional Investor Behavior - Growth funds may hold significant cash positions due to redemptions [7] - BlackRock gathered $26 billion in assets in a quarter, deploying most into large caps [7] - Market makers like Citadel, Susahana, and Jane Street price large caps, with economics breaking down when spreads narrow too much, leading to volatility [8] Options Market Impact - The volatility of volatility in SPY reached the sixth largest in modern data sets on October 10th [11] - A long period of neither hot nor cold market conditions occurred since 2018 [11] - High volatility and a long period without a reset increase the probability of market trouble, especially around options expirations [12] - Zero days to expiration options have a $12 trillion notional value daily, exceeding the daily stock market value of $800-900 billion [13] - New options series reset on Mondays, making them potentially important [13] - VIX expirations occur on Mondays and Wednesdays, with market stability uncertain until Thursday or Friday [14]