🚨JUST IN: BITMINE CHAIR TOM LEE WARNS BITCOIN COULD DROP AS MUCH AS 50% AMID ONGOING VOLATILITY ...

Market Analysis & Gold's Valuation - Gold is significantly extended versus moving averages, suggesting a potential 20-25% drawdown from its peak would be normal [1] - The rapid increase in gold's price is concerning, especially when other markets underperform, indicating potential market instability [2][3] - Gold's high valuation suggests it is overbought, and investors should not be actively seeking to buy it [7][8] - Central banks may curtail their gold buying around $4,000/ounce due to elasticity, impacting market dynamics [6][7] Economic Indicators & Potential Risks - Gold's behavior may signal upcoming stock market volatility, as indicated by low 90-day volatility volume of 89% a few weeks ago, the lowest in five years [3] - Declining crude oil prices and bond yields, coupled with potential stock market declines, could accelerate existing trends, suggesting deflationary risks [4][3] - The increase in total gold reserves held by central banks surpassing US dollar reserves is partly due to the price increase [9] Technical Analysis & Support Levels - In 2006, gold corrected about 25% after stretching above its 200-day moving average, before resuming its upward trend [11] - A normal correction from the current extreme gold price would be around 20%, targeting a support level of $3,500, which was the previous peak [13] - While $4,000 is the first dip, it's not near the normal correction range of 20-30% for such a stretched market [14]

Market Volatility & Hedging - The market exhibits "sticky skew," indicating persistent demand for hedges despite recent market turmoil, suggesting underlying bearish sentiment [3][4] - Institutional investors remain reluctant in the rally, maintaining a bearish outlook despite resilient retail buying [8] - Low correlation among AI-related stocks and Mag Seven names may lead to increased volatility if correlations rise [15][16][17] Generational Investing & Market Psychology - Investors born before the 2008 financial crisis are more risk-averse due to past experiences, while those born after are more inclined to "buy the dip" [6][7][9] - Retail investors have shown resilience and continue to "buy the dip," contrasting with the more cautious approach of institutional investors [7][8] - The market's current state is described as a "paddling duck market," appearing calm on the surface but with underlying instability [17] Potential Market Risks - A multi-standard deviation drawdown could test the "buy the dip" mentality, potentially leading to increased hedging activity [11] - The intercorrelation of AI and Mag Seven stocks is not being reflected, which could lead to volatility [14][15]

We couldn't agree more. It is and indeed a very weird market. You know, things that you historically could rely on you can no longer rely on.I mean, who ever would have thought that the kind of volatility we're seeing in developed market currencies versus the emerging market currencies are doing relatively okay. And that kind of feeds into the whole theme around gold as well. You know, Danny, we've heard three big arguments as to why we're seeing the volatility in gold or why gold has actually been the best ...

Bitcoin slides below $108,000; volatility to continue amid US-China tensions: analyst https://t.co/vDuelWAiAB ...

Gold Market Analysis - Gold and silver have seen record inflows of $342 billion (3420 亿) over the past 10 weeks [1] - Central banks have been buying 1,000 to 1,100 tons of gold each year for the last four years, doubling the previous decade's purchases [2] - Central bank buying is seen as hedging against their own ineptitude [3] Volatility Assessment - The VIX volatility index was slightly above 18, after peaking above 28 on Friday [4] - A VIX spike occurred despite a relatively innocuous market move, suggesting leverage in the system [5] - Bouts of volatility are expected to continue for the remainder of the year [5]

Group 1 - Gold and silver have seen record inflows of $34.2 billion over the past 10 weeks, marking the largest surge ever recorded [1] - Central banks have been purchasing gold at a record pace, acquiring between 1,000 to 1,100 tons annually over the last four years, which is double the previous decade's purchases [2] - The price of gold has been significantly influenced by central bank actions, with current prices being twice that of the previous decade [2] Group 2 - The volatility index (VIX) experienced a significant drop from a high above 28 to just above 18, indicating a collapse in volatility from Friday to Monday [4] - The recent spike in the VIX was not due to a market selloff, suggesting underlying leverage in the system that the index is attempting to detect [5] - Despite the recent decrease in the VIX, volatility is expected to remain a concern for investors for the remainder of the year [5]

Market Volatility & Leverage - The crypto market experienced volatility, particularly in altcoins, highlighting concerns about leverage [1][2] - Offshore futures trading, though representing less than 2% of Bitcoin's total value, accounts for 70% or more of trading volume, contributing to market volatility [3] - Excessive leverage, such as 100x on platforms, can lead to significant liquidations, as seen in the $19 billion liquidation event, harming investors and increasing market volatility [9][10] Bitcoin vs Altcoins - Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a distinct asset class, a "digital gold," separate from other cryptocurrencies that are more akin to technology bets on blockchain innovation [4] - The vast majority of crypto assets, by number, are considered worthless, requiring investors to be cautious, especially when using leverage [5][17] Regulatory Landscape - The GENIUS Act, providing regulatory clarity for stablecoins, is a significant milestone, with potential for broader adoption in cross-border payments and financial market transactions [19] - The CLARITY Act, addressing crypto market structure, is still under legislative consideration, while regulatory agencies are working to establish frameworks for the crypto space [19][20] Digital Asset Treasuries - Interest in the digital asset treasury construct has waned, with multiples to NAV retreating, potentially impacting business models reliant on trading at a premium [14][15]

Carlyle CEO Harvey Schwartz says recent volatility in credit markets is on his "worry list". https://t.co/CkPbTDoJaa ...

Carlyle’s Harvey Schwartz said recent volatility in credit markets is on his “worry list” as the firm’s chief executive officer, but so far he sees nothing that suggestions conditions are deteriorating. https://t.co/WQ2zEU1qtf ...