Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" indicates a slight decline in U.S. economic activity, which raises concerns about the overall economic outlook [1][3] - Businesses are hesitant to invest or expand due to unpredictable policy changes, while consumers face rising prices and stagnant wages, leading to more cautious spending habits [3][4] - The financial markets reacted to the news with volatility, as investors speculated on the potential for reduced corporate profitability and the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][5] Group 2 - The report highlights the interconnectedness of the global economy, suggesting that developments in the U.S. economy could have broader implications for financial markets and consumer behavior worldwide [4][5] - The discussions among investors reflect a mix of strategies, with some considering whether to buy into the stock market or exchange currencies based on the evolving economic landscape [4]

5 . 3 1 - 6 . 6 周度研究成果 高频跟踪 电话会议 热点思考 1、热点思考 | 美国经济："消失的"库存？——关税"压力测试"系列之十一 2、热点思考|失业保险，如何更好保障失业群体？ 1、5月PMI：内外分化加深—中采PMI 点评 2、海外高频 | 特朗普关税合法性遭遇司法挑战 3、政策高频 | 高质量共建"一带一路" 4、Top Charts | "端午"假期消费图鉴 5、Top Charts | 如何看待美国法院裁定特朗普关税违法？ 6、Top Charts | 美国经济："消失的"库存？ 1、 "周见"系列会议第33期 《 穿越"不确定性" 》 2、 "洞见"系列会议第64期 《美国经济："消失的"库存 - 关税"压力测试"系列之十一 》 3、 "洞见"系列会议第65期 《美债"风暴"将至？- 关税"压力测试"系列之九》 热点思考 2025.6.3 年初以来，美国大幅"抢进口"，但累库现象并不显著。如何理解"消失的"库存；美国"抢进口"能否持续？ 1 热点思考 | 美国经济："消失的"库存？——关税"压力测试"系列之十 一 点击看全文 2 热点思考|失业保险，如何更好保障失业群体？ 点击 ...

英国央行货币政策委员格林：贸易碎片化应当对英国产生反通胀压力。 ...

财经杂志 . 文/中国社科院世经政所博士后 谢慧敏、 中国社科院世经政所研究员 杨盼 盼 、中国社科院世经政所研究员 徐奇渊 4月以来，特朗普政府的关税政策经历了剧烈波动与多次重大调整。 特 别 是 针 对 中 国 ， 美 国 先 是 施 加 " 对 等 关 税 " ， 随 后 又 多 次 提 升 关 税 ， 最 终 将 税 率 加 征 至 14 5% ， 这 可 被 视 为 一 次 极 限 关 税 的 压 力 测 试。 在如此高的关税下，4月中国对美出口同比下降21.3%，下降幅度显 著低于此前各类模拟测算的结果。其原因何在？可持续性如何？本 文尝试基于美国进口商提单层面的微观数据做逐一回答。 以下文章来源于财经杂志 ，作者谢慧敏 等 《财经》杂志官方微信。《财经》杂志由中国证券市场研究中心主办，1998年创刊，秉承"独立、独 家、独到"的新闻理念，以权威性、公正性、专业性报道见长，是政经学界决策者、研究者、管理者的 必读刊物。 抢进口在"对等关税"早期发挥作用 基于Panjiva数据，4月15日-5月13日，美国从中国海运进口货值同比下降15.5%，这与中国海关总 署公布的4月中国对美出口下降约21%较为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid rise of Wei Dongyi, a researcher from Peking University, to over 10 million followers on social media highlights the power of talent and knowledge in attracting public attention, especially in the context of the upcoming 2025 national college entrance examination [1][2]. Group 1: Social Media Impact - Wei Dongyi's short video account, which gained immense popularity with just a 4-second video, demonstrates the potential of social media to create academic idols and engage the public in educational content [1][2]. - The phenomenon of academic figures gaining large followings on social media reflects a societal shift towards valuing knowledge and learning, as seen with other prominent scientists and academicians who have also embraced digital platforms [1][2]. Group 2: Knowledge Sharing and Public Engagement - The emergence of academic influencers like Wei Dongyi signifies a growing trend in knowledge dissemination through social media, providing channels for lifelong learning for both youth and adults [1][2]. - The attention on Wei Dongyi's health issues, such as periodontal disease, raises awareness about the support systems needed for scholars, prompting discussions on the health and well-being of academic professionals [2]. Group 3: Economic and Cultural Considerations - The phenomenon of Wei Dongyi's popularity poses questions about the sustainability of attention-driven economies and the need for mechanisms that ensure academic wisdom is valued beyond fleeting trends [3]. - The challenge lies in transforming the public's fascination with academic figures into a broader cultural movement that promotes a love for learning and knowledge, rather than merely consuming the image of "genius scholars" [2][3].

国内黄金本周走出了我预期的上涨力度，临盘操作上我也在785给出离场提示，755和770布局的多单已经全部获利了 结，跟随江沐洋思路做多的朋友也有所收获，我多次说过，积存金、融通金属于长期产品，操作不应以短周期看待， 合理规划好自己的仓位，认清形势耐心等待合适机会买入持有即可，周五随着国际金价的大幅走低，积存金、融通金 走势也跟随下跌，回落则是给到我们进场的机会，由于周末停盘，目前国际局势严峻，周末有太多的不确定性，所以 下周一我会根据实时的开盘价格在给出合理的进场位置，大家注意关注。 周五（6月6日），美国劳工统计局（BLS）于北京时间20:30公布了备受关注的5月非农就业报告。数据显示，美国5月 非农就业人口新增13.9万人，略高于市场预期的13万人，但较4月修正后的14.7万人有所放缓。失业率连续第三个月稳 定在4.2%，符合预期。平均每小时工资年率增长3.9%，超出预期的3.7%，月率增长0.4%，也高于预期的0.3%。这份数 据反映出劳动力市场韧性犹存，但增长动能有所减弱，叠加关税言论引发的市场不确定性，数据公布后金融市场反应 复杂，美元指数和美债收益率短线上扬，黄金价格小幅震荡，投资者对美联储降息路 ...

Group 1 - President Trump indicated that a decision regarding the next Federal Reserve Chairman will be announced soon, emphasizing that a good Chairman should lower interest rates [1] - Trump suggested that the Federal Reserve should reduce interest rates by a full percentage point, criticizing current Chairman Jerome Powell for being slow to act on lowering borrowing costs [1] - Trump's comments and actions have led to speculation about the potential replacement of Powell, with Kevin Warsh being a favored candidate for the position [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns have arisen regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, as Trump's repeated criticisms of Powell and the potential for a leadership change may undermine future monetary policy effectiveness [2][3] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and tariffs has increased worries among Federal Reserve officials about persistent inflation, which has contributed to Powell's reluctance to lower interest rates [2] - Financial analysts have suggested that Powell may face significant challenges, including the possibility of being directly dismissed or having his authority undermined by a new appointee [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market added 139,000 jobs in May, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.2% for three consecutive months, which is better than market expectations but below the 12-month average of 149,000 jobs per month [1][2] - The U.S. Labor Department significantly revised down the employment data for March and April, reducing the combined job growth for these two months by 95,000 [1] - Employment growth in May was primarily driven by the healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance sectors, which collectively added 126,000 jobs [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing and retail sectors, which are closely tied to trade, showed signs of weakness, with manufacturing losing 8,000 jobs and retail shedding 6,500 jobs [1] - The average hourly wage for non-farm employees in May was $36.24, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 0.4% and a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2] - The cautious sentiment surrounding the May employment data reflects businesses' uncertainty regarding trade policies and economic growth [2]

2025.06. 06 本文字数：1306，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一 财经 郑娜 大股东深铁集团再向万科"输血"。 6月6日晚，万科（000002.SZ）发布公告称，第一大股东深铁集团拟向公司提供借款，金额不超过 30亿元，用于偿还公司在公开市场发行的债券本金与利息，以及深铁集团同意的指定借款利息。 这是今年深铁集团第五次向万科提供股东借款。今年2月和4月，深铁集团分别向万科提供28亿元、 42亿元及33亿元的股东借款，5月中旬又提供了15.52亿元借款。算上当前的30亿，深铁集团向万 科提供的借款总额已经达到148.52亿元。 与此前相同，本次借款利率目前为2.34%，借款期限不超过36个月，且仍保留了展期的可能，"经双 方协商一致，可提前还款；经出借人同意，可进行展期"。 不过，在增信担保方面，此次借款又发生了些许变化。 2月份时，深铁集团在向万科提供股东借款时，曾明确提出具体的增信安排，包括万科所持的万物云 股票、不超过价值60亿元的资产等。在4月底和5月中旬的两次借款中，深铁集团则未再提出增信要 求。 但在本次借款中，深铁集团则保留了提出担保的权利。万科在公告中表示，"深铁集团有权要求公司 ...

由于通胀放缓且有迹象表明经济在高借贷成本的压力下陷入困境，俄罗斯央行近三年来首次下调利率。俄罗斯央行周五将基准利率大幅下调100个基点至 20%。 此次降息发生在通胀放缓之际，同时有迹象表明高借贷成本正使经济陷入困境。接受彭博调查的5位经济学家中有1人预测降息200个基点，另有4人预期将维 持21%的历史高位不变。 央行在政策声明中表示，"当前通胀压力(包括基础通胀)持续减弱，""紧缩货币政策对需求的抑制效果正通过通胀下行日益显现。" 自去年10月以来，决策者始终维持高利率以对抗两倍于4%目标水平的通胀。但随着物价增速放缓迹象显现，政府部长和商界领袖近期频频发声呼吁宽松政 策以支持战时经济。 俄罗斯央行2022年以来首次下调基准利率 政府对经济下行风险担忧加剧，多数行业已出现萎缩。经济部长马克西姆.列舍特尼科夫在议息会议前公开呼吁降息刺激增长，称部分领域降温过快。行长 埃尔维拉.纳比乌琳娜将于莫斯科时间下午3点举行新闻发布会。 纳比乌琳娜的货币政策已初见成效。央行数据显示，经季节调整的年化通胀率从3月的7%降至4月的6.2%。复兴资本估计5月该指标已回落至4%的目标水 平。截至6月2日，年通胀率降至9.8%。 ...