德国总理默茨：提升国防并非只是关于支出，而是关于效率。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market has started May with strong momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 2% for the week and closing above 3300 points [1] ETF Performance - The military industry sector has shown significant growth, with related ETFs such as general aviation, military, high-end equipment, and national defense all ranking high in terms of weekly gains [2][3] - Over 1100 ETFs recorded positive returns this week, with a median market increase of 1.81%, indicating a notable uptick compared to the pre-May Day period [3] Top Performing ETFs - The top-performing ETF this week was the General Aviation ETF (159378), which saw a weekly increase of 6.48%. Notable stocks within this ETF, such as Aerospace Rainbow, experienced gains exceeding 14% [4][5] - Other ETFs related to the military sector, including the Military Leader ETF and High-End Equipment ETF, also reported weekly gains exceeding 5% [5] Communication Sector - The Communication ETF (515880) achieved a weekly increase of 6.14%, primarily driven by a rebound in the optical communication sector, with leading stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication seeing substantial rises [5] Declining Sectors - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector has experienced significant volatility, with several ETFs related to this sector appearing on the weekly decline list [6] - The largest decline was seen in the NASDAQ Biotechnology ETF (513290), which fell by 4.93%, followed closely by the S&P Biotechnology ETF (159502) with a drop of 4.86% [7][8]

德国总理默茨：要求欧盟关注国防生产和融资。 ...

德国总理默茨表示，要求欧盟专注于国防生产和融资。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing cyclical recession risks and suggests investors hedge through oil put options and gold long positions [1] - Goldman Sachs identifies four tactical key factors, including underestimated recession risks, with a 45% probability of recession in the next 12 months due to high policy uncertainty and weak consumer expectations [1][3] - In a recession scenario, the S&P 500 index could drop to 4600 points, and high-yield bond spreads may reach 788 basis points [2][1] Group 2 - Traditional hedging strategies may fail to protect against stock market risks, as recent correlations indicate concerns over U.S. policy impacts on governance and institutional credibility [3] - Gold prices are expected to rise significantly due to concerns over U.S. governance and aggressive Fed rate cuts, with potential prices reaching $3880 per ounce in a recession [4] - The current net long position in COMEX gold is at a 58% percentile since 2014, making it an attractive time to establish long positions [4] Group 3 - Oil price forecasts suggest Brent crude averaging $63 in 2025, with potential declines in a recession scenario, estimating prices could drop to below $40 per barrel [5] - Investors are advised to sell June 2026 Brent crude oil call options and buy put options to hedge against potential price declines [5] Group 4 - Four structural trends are enhancing the long-term attractiveness of gold and copper, including dollar asset diversification, increased defense spending, energy supply de-risking, and reduced copper investment [7][11] - The diversification of official reserves and a fivefold increase in central bank gold purchases since 2022 have driven gold prices up by 76% [8][10] - Increased defense spending in Europe is expected to support industrial metal demand, with a projected rise in defense spending from 2% to 3% of GDP [11] Group 5 - The electrification trend is anticipated to boost global copper demand growth rates by approximately 2 percentage points from 2024 to 2030 [13] - Copper prices are projected to decline to $8300 per ton in Q3 2025 due to global GDP weakness, but could rebound to $10600 per ton by the end of 2026 if no recession occurs [15][17]

Group 1 - The CEO of Rheinmetall expects a rapid increase in NATO defense spending [1] - NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg suggested member countries raise defense spending to 3.5% of their GDP [1] - An additional 1.5% is recommended for broader security-related expenditures to meet President Trump's proposed 5% target [1]

25Q1 业绩扭亏，卫星业务占比持续提升 ——上海瀚讯 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 25Q1 业绩扭亏，毛利率受产品结构影响 2024 年，公司实现营收 3.53 亿元，同比+13%，归母净利润-1.24 亿元。毛利率为 43.28%，同比-0.06pct。费用端稳中有降，销售/管理/研发/财务费用合计为 2.67 亿元，同比-19%。 25Q1，公司实现营收 1.26 亿元，同比+84%，归母净利润 0.13 亿元，同比扭亏为 盈。毛利率为 37.56%，同比-27.55pct，我们预计主要由于公司产品结构变化，卫 星业务占比增加影响整体毛利率表现。 ❑ 深度参与千帆星座建设，卫星业务已成为公司重要收入来源 ❑ 盈利预测与估值 公司是特种宽带通信龙头，前瞻布局卫星通信领域，考虑到短期客户订单节奏， 我们预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润为 1.05 亿元/2.46 亿元/4.46 亿元，对应 25 年 PE 为 129，公司积极打造卫星新成长点，维持"买入"评级。 ❑ 风险提示 军用宽带市场发展不及预期；市场竞争加剧的风险；卫星互联网发展不及预期 上海瀚讯(30076 ...

英国首相斯塔默表示，英国将开启自二战结束以来最大的国防工业复兴时代。斯塔默周四在演讲时表 示，政府将实施1945年以来最雄心勃勃的工作计划，来保卫和重建国家。他说，未来几周有关大臣将公 布一份战略防务评估报告，概述英国认为需要加强军事力量的领域，以及有关英国国家安全和国防工业 的新计划。 ...

市场消息：斯洛文尼亚计划在2025年将国防开支提高到占GDP的2%。 ...

5月8日，A股军工板块延续涨势，近20股涨停或涨超10%，后续行情将如何演绎？中航证券航空航天首 席分析师王宏涛做客新浪证券直播间，为投资者火线解读。直播详情>> 王宏涛判断，在当前基本面看，军工行业在2027年、2035年、以及2050年国防军队现代化建设"三步 走"战略目标下，仍处于高景气发展的大周期内。中期来看，行业在2024年已经构筑"十四五"时期的"基 本面底"，军工行业收入增速将再次重新进入上行通道。具体判断因素如下： 中航证券航空航天首席分析师 执业编号: S0640520110001 直播时间: 5月8日 16:00 一是军工行业发展底层增速因素，军费在中长期维持快速增长，政府对国防投入支持力度不断提升，军 贸有望进入上行周期；二是大军工第二增长曲线因素，国家加大对民机、低空经济、商业航天等多 个"大军工"领域的发展支持力度，军工市场天花板持续扩容，构成军工行业发展的新驱动力；三十军工 行业发展计划性因素，"十四五"已进入收官阶段，2025年五年规划目标与2027年建军百年目标的计划性 都将进一步牵引军工行业下游需求提速释放；四是军工行业政策调整及改革深化的阶段性扰动因素，军 工企业受到短期影 ...