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6月金融数据点评:再论看股做债,不是股债双牛
Huachuang Securities· 2025-07-15 05:05
Group 1: Macro Overview - In June 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 4.20 trillion, up from 2.29 trillion previously, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9% compared to 8.7% before[1] - M2 growth was 8.3% year-on-year, an increase from 7.9% previously, while new M1 (新口径) grew by 4.6% compared to 2.3% before[1] - The current market logic reflects a "look at stocks, act like bonds" approach rather than a dual bull market for stocks and bonds, primarily driven by the relocation of household deposits[1] Group 2: Liquidity and Policy Implications - The current liquidity easing is mainly driven by policy rather than economic improvement, leading to strong market expectations for further central bank easing[2] - The central bank's probability of further easing is decreasing unless triggered by significant adverse economic events or market shocks[2] - Future central bank actions may focus more on structural adjustments rather than broad monetary easing, aiming to stabilize liquidity in both stock and bond markets[2] Group 3: Financial Data Insights - In June, corporate loans increased by 1.77 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 trillion, while household loans rose by 597.6 billion[1] - The social financing scale in June showed an increase of 4.2 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9%, reflecting a significant rise in government bond issuance[1] - The total amount of deposits increased by 3.21 trillion in June, with household deposits rising by 2.47 trillion, indicating a strong inflow into the banking system[1]
黄仁勋将在北京举行媒体吹风会|首席资讯日报
首席商业评论· 2025-07-15 04:23
Group 1 - The article discusses the recent call by Elon Musk for Trump to fulfill his promise to release documents related to Jeffrey Epstein's case, highlighting the ongoing controversy surrounding Epstein's alleged crimes and Trump's involvement [1] - The article mentions that the Chinese customs authority reported a 3.9% year-on-year increase in trade with other BRICS countries, amounting to 6.11 trillion yuan, which represents 28.1% of China's total trade [4] - The article notes that China's high-tech product exports grew by 9.2% in the first half of the year, marking nine consecutive months of growth, with significant increases in exports of high-end machine tools and marine engineering equipment [8] Group 2 - The article highlights that several private entrepreneurs, including Wang Xingxing of Yushutech, will participate in a press conference to discuss the spirit of entrepreneurship and their contributions to China's development [5][6] - The article reports that Chery Automobile clarified that a reduction of over 140 million yuan in new energy promotion subsidies was part of a normal process and not due to any violations [9] - The article mentions that Taobao's flash sale platform achieved over 80 million orders in a single day, with a 15% week-on-week increase in daily active users, indicating strong consumer demand [12][13] Group 3 - The article notes that several airlines, including Spring Airlines, are implementing measures to allow female flight attendants to wear flat shoes instead of high heels, reflecting a shift towards prioritizing occupational health and a more humanized service approach [14][15] - The article reports that TSMC is accelerating the construction of its wafer fabrication plants in the United States, with plans to expedite the selection of contractors for its Arizona P3 plant [16]
【环球财经】古巴经济计划部长:古巴经济仍处于收缩趋势
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 04:21
他提到,2025年上半年全国出口创汇同比下降7%。烟草、水产品等出口虽有恢复,但未能弥补矿产、 蜂蜜、生物医药等产品出口下滑所带来的损失。这主要受制于原材料、能源和燃料短缺,以及国际市场 价格下跌和物流障碍。整体来看,古巴上半年商品出口计划仅完成62%,低于去年同期水平。 新华财经哈瓦那7月14日电(记者蒋彪)古巴经济计划部长华金·阿隆索·巴斯克斯(Joaquín Alonso Vázquez)14日在古巴第十届全国人民政权代表大会经济事务委员会工作会议上报告称,2024年古巴国 内生产总值(GDP)同比下降1.1%,虽较前年下降幅度略小,但经济整体仍处于收缩趋势。 阿隆索指出,在金融封锁、信贷受限和内部经济失衡的背景下,古巴通货膨胀压力大、外汇市场混乱, 以及外汇、燃料和电力等资源严重短缺,严重拖累了工业生产、制造业和基本公共服务的正常运作。 阿隆索说,为此,古巴政府制定了专项计划,致力于恢复电力生产能力并努力确保原材料供应,最大化 利用现有产能。此外,2025年下半年,政府将重点推进宏观经济稳定计划,扩大外汇收入来源,加强本 国粮食生产和更有效利用工业产能,持续推进国家电力系统恢复计划,提升可再生能源在能 ...
济滨高铁完成全线所有箱梁架设
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-07-15 04:20
Group 1 - The completion of the last box girder installation for the Jinan-Binzhou High-speed Railway project marks a significant milestone, with a total of 1,141 box girders successfully installed [2] - The project involves complex construction challenges, including multiple crossings over major highways and existing rail lines, requiring careful planning and execution [4] - The Jinan-Binzhou High-speed Railway spans 150.6 kilometers, with a total tunnel length of 7.35 kilometers and a bridge and tunnel length of 136 kilometers, enhancing regional connectivity [5] Group 2 - The project is a crucial link in the national railway network, connecting key economic areas and facilitating rapid intercity travel, which is vital for regional economic development [5] - The construction team utilized advanced planning and risk management strategies, including collaboration with relevant authorities and specialized teams to address construction challenges [4] - The successful installation of box girders was achieved with minimal manpower and time, demonstrating efficiency in construction operations [4]
患难见真情 东营济南两地跑友用爱诠释 “天下跑友是一家”
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-07-15 04:09
李璟瑶 杨志强 马树文 近日,一场跨越两地数百公里的跑友爱心接力在东营与济南两地跑友间温情上演。东营市长跑运动协会仙河跑团跑友刘玉亮的母亲突遭重症,急需用血之 际,东营、济南两地跑友迅速联动,济南多个跑团的跑友挺身而出无偿献血,用热血与真情谱写了"天下跑友是一家"的动人篇章。 6月30日,患有35年糖尿病史的刘玉亮母亲,因肺炎引发急性肾衰竭、心脏衰竭、肺血栓等重症,被紧急送入山东省立医院重症监护室。7月2日,医院传来 揪心消息:老人因血透治疗需大量用血,而省血站正值血液紧张,身在济南、举目无亲的刘玉亮瞬间陷入绝境。 "当时脑子里一片空白,唯一能想到的就是东营长跑协会这个'大家庭'。"刘玉亮回忆起当时的无助,仍难掩激动。情急之下,他拨通了东营市长跑运动协会 领导的电话。 接到求助后,东营市长跑运动协会第一时间启动应急响应。协会副会长刘新芳一边安抚刘玉亮的情绪,一边迅速发动资源与济南各大跑团紧急联络,详细说 明情况并协调献血事宜。短短数小时,在两地跑友的联动下,一个专为此次献血组建的微信群快速成立,消息像暖流般在济南跑友圈蔓延 —— 自由橙跑 团、济南西城跑团、济南跑吧等多个跑团的跑友们积极响应,一场跨越城市的爱 ...
别找借口,企业死亡只有一个原因
Hu Xiu· 2025-07-15 03:53
Core Insights - The survival rate of Chinese enterprises has decreased, with the three-year survival rate dropping from 83.9% to 76%, indicating a harsher business environment [1][2] - The average lifespan of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in China is only 2.5 years, with a significant number failing within the first few years [2][3] Group 1: Business Environment - The highest mortality rate for enterprises has shifted to the first three years, with 8.2%, 9.4%, and 6.4% of businesses failing in their first, second, and third years respectively [1][2] - The data suggests that the market's tolerance for failure has decreased, necessitating faster maturation of businesses [2] Group 2: Entrepreneurial Spirit - Successful entrepreneurs must possess two critical qualities: introspection and a balance of pessimism and optimism [13][15] - Entrepreneurs should focus on internal solutions and adapt to external conditions rather than blaming the environment for failures [14][23] Group 3: Causes of Business Failure - The essence of business failure is linked to the weakening of core competitiveness, which ultimately leads to bankruptcy [20][23] - Many reasons cited for business failure, such as poor financial management or market conditions, are often just symptoms of a deeper issue related to a lack of core competitiveness [21][22][23]
特朗普要金砖解体,对11国“宣战”,巴西瞄准美元,替中俄打前阵
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 03:51
特朗普已经铁了心要点燃新一轮贸易战,并且是全球范围内的贸易战。近日,特朗普悍然升级关税威胁,扬言"只要是和金砖国家持一致立场的反美国家, 就得再加征10%的关税"。 在特朗普看来,柿子要先挑软的捏。就在美国公布对等关税税率之前,越南这个金砖国家伙伴国,迅速向美国低头妥协,出让利益。 特朗普甚至还信誓旦旦地表示,"这些国家的金砖成员国身份不会维持太久!"特朗普之所以对金砖国家如此上心,是因为他已经嗅到了危险的信号。 自特朗普重返白宫以来,他已经数次表示,金砖国家"损害美元地位",如果美元失守储备货币地位,等同于"美国输掉世界大战"。不过,特朗普2月曾威胁 对"去美元化"国家征收100%关税,如今降至10%,这体现出特朗普政府缺乏底气。 于是,在特朗普公布第一批加税国家名单之际,特朗普也对金砖国家发出了威胁。特朗普向14国发函实施25%到40%的单边关税,东南亚成重灾区,日韩等 美国的盟友国家也无法幸免于难。 这种急速升级暴露美方战略焦虑。金砖峰会期间,普京视频宣布按购买力平价计算,金砖GDP达77万亿美元,远远超越G7国家的57万亿。 要知道,20万亿美元的差距,几乎相当于欧盟全年经济总量,这一逆转印证了巴西官 ...
爱国是企业家标杆?霍英东等爱国港商受敬,李嘉诚家族因何惹争议?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 03:40
这份本可触及的市场机遇,显然不应再轻易向李嘉诚家族倾斜。彭博社援引知情人士消息,香港富豪李泽楷旗下保险公司开拓中国大陆市场的谈判,已因父 亲李嘉诚出售巴拿马港口业务引发的风波陷入停滞。 衡量一位企业家是否能冠以"伟大"之名,爱国是一道必须跨越的标杆。这绝非空洞的口号,而是在关乎国家利益的关键节点所展现的立场与抉择。国务院港 澳办曾两次转载《大公报》时评《伟大的企业家都是铮铮爱国者》,文中明确指出,真正能站稳脚跟的企业家,从不是紧盯利益的投机者,而是心怀家国的 爱国者,这一论断有着深刻的现实依据。 回望那些被铭记的港澳企业家,便能读懂其中深意。霍英东便是典范,早年西方国家对华实施禁运,他顶着压力组建船队,将急需物资从香港运至内地,为 抗美援朝和新中国建设提供了重要支撑。改革开放初期,众多外资仍在观望,他已携资赴粤兴建宾馆,成为首批投身内地发展的港商。香港回归前后,他积 极协调各方推动平稳过渡,还出资助力中国重返国际体育组织,设立基金支持教育、医疗事业,广州南沙从渔村蜕变为新城,更凝聚着霍家几代人的付出。 何鸿燊的故事广为人知,他斥资回购流失海外的文物捐赠国家,圆明园猪首、马首铜像的回归便离不开他的努力。北京申奥 ...
洪涛×刘擎×余明锋:现代国家三百年——从斯威夫特到奥威尔
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 03:40
2024年8月10日,洪 涛、刘擎、余明锋、黄韬在上图东馆参加《文学三篇:一个政治哲学视角》新书分享会。上海三联书店供图 黄韬:各位读者下午好!在这样一个炎热的下午,感谢大家来到这里参与洪涛老师的这本新书的分享活动。 我突然想起来我跟洪涛老师相识已经37年了。我们当年都是在复旦大学国际政治系就读的,37年之前,那段时日,一直在我们心中。 那时候好像中国的政治学刚刚起步,或者说是恢复意义上的刚刚起步。我记得80年差不多,教材也是刚刚才有,我记得是两位王老师,王邦佐教 授和王沪宁教授,还有孙关宏老师,三位老师编写的《政治学概要》,你还记得吧?这样一晃就30多年了,中国政治学的发展,包括政治哲学的 发展,也经历了很多年的发展过程。今天我们有机会让洪涛老师首先来讲一讲他关于自己这本书的一些创作的一个基本的想法,首先我想让洪涛 老师先讲。 【编者按】从18世纪的斯威夫特到20世纪的奥威尔和卡夫卡,再到21世纪的今天,正是现代国家从降生到成熟的300余年。基于对这段历史进程和 现实境况的关注与思考,洪涛教授历时多年撰写了《文学三篇:一个政治哲学视角》这部长达35万字的学术专著,选取了《格列佛游记》、卡夫 卡小说、奥威尔小 ...
乌克兰想重建,可美国这 “隐形绳子” 捆着,稀土合作自己说了不算
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 02:05
最近看新闻,总觉得乌克兰这处境挺让人唏嘘的。你说打了这么久,谁不想赶紧喘口气,把家园重新拾 掇起来?可现实往往不遂人愿,就像你手里攥着一把拼图,想把它拼完整,旁边总有人悄悄拽着你的胳 膊,让你动弹不得。 乌克兰现在就面临这情况。前阵子听说他们想跟别的国家搞点稀土合作,这东西你也知道,现在多金贵 啊,不管是造手机还是搞新能源,都离不了。按说这是自家的宝贝,跟谁合作、怎么合作,自己说了算 天经地义吧?可偏偏,这里面绕不开美国那根看不见的绳子。 你说这叫什么事儿?自己的土地底下埋着宝藏,却不能痛快地挖出来换生活。美国总说支持乌克兰,可 这支持里藏着多少私心,明眼人都看得出来。稀土这东西,美国自己也缺,自然不想让乌克兰跟其他有 实力的国家走得太近。就像小孩子攥着自己的玩具,哪怕自己暂时不用,也不想让别人碰。 其实乌克兰也不是没想过挣脱。前几年他们试过跟几个亚洲国家接触,想谈长期合作,甚至都派人去考 察了。听说考察团回来写的报告里,把合作的好处列了满满几页纸,什么能创造多少就业,能让 GDP 增长多少,看得人心里热乎乎的。可这份报告最后石沉大海,为啥?还不是美国那边又 "打招呼" 了。 有时候我就想,国家之间的事儿,跟 ...