最近，光伏板块股价波动加剧，减产预期持续发酵，推动市场情绪转变。本期直播，我们邀请基金经理王 路遥来聊聊大家比较关注的光伏减产问题。 以下是本期直播实录整理。 提问 最近都在讨论光伏减产，有投资者想知道进行的程度如何？是所有环节都减产，还是特定环节？ 王路遥 我给大家盘一下历史脉络。行业是否正在减产，减产程度如何？大家听到的消息可能是近期才有 的。但如果把产能利用率下降定义为减产，从光伏的全产业链（如硅料、硅片、电池片、组件、玻璃等） 来看，其实这个情况（减产）从去年三季度就比较明显。行业数据上，产能利用率是从去年二季度开始下 降，四季度进一步下滑，到今年基本维持在接近50%的水平左右。我们所观察到的各个环节基本如此，光 伏玻璃可能会好些。 光伏玻璃的供给相对比较刚性，它的生产线点火投产后，只能连续生产，一旦停产，内部的玻璃液凝固， 会导致产线报废。所以不能停产，但可以让流速变慢，堵一部分的窑口，或保持一些生产线待点火。因 此，它的产能利用率下降情况相对好一些。 整体来看，目前行业的整体利用率都不高。一定程度上有行业倡导的因素，是自律协会或者同一个环节内 的企业面对供给过剩、需求增速放缓这样供需错配的局面，大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is undergoing significant transformation driven by the dual goals of carbon neutrality and digitalization, responding to government mandates for energy reduction and carbon emission cuts [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Transformation - The State Council's "2024-2025 Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Action Plan" emphasizes the need for energy efficiency upgrades in the petrochemical sector, with a target for outdated capacities to be either upgraded or eliminated by the end of 2025 [1]. - Chemical companies are increasingly focusing on high-end, intelligent, and green development strategies to seize the opportunities presented by industry upgrades [1][10]. - The partnership between New Hope Chemical and Schneider Electric aims to create energy management solutions that facilitate a green transition for Huaron Chemical [3][7]. Group 2: Digitalization and Energy Management - Huaron Chemical is focusing on digital upgrades as a core driver for innovation and growth, emphasizing the need for experienced teams in energy management and operations to ensure effective energy monitoring and management [4][10]. - The collaboration with Schneider Electric includes a comprehensive service system that covers the entire lifecycle of energy management, from consulting to operational management [5][7]. - The implementation of a customized energy management system allows for real-time monitoring and visualization of energy consumption, enhancing the ability to identify energy-saving opportunities [8]. Group 3: Performance Metrics and Recognition - Since the initiation of the digital transformation, Huaron Chemical has achieved a 35% increase in production efficiency and a 6% reduction in overall energy consumption, with cumulative savings exceeding 10 million yuan over three years [10]. - The company has received multiple accolades, including recognition as an "Outstanding Scene of Intelligent Manufacturing" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and as a "Leader in Carbon Peak" in China [10]. - The transformation is viewed as a comprehensive restructuring of energy management and production operations rather than merely replacing equipment [10].

Core Viewpoint - The development of "living timber loans" and innovative financial products has transformed forest resources into valuable assets, enhancing the economic viability of rural areas and promoting ecological sustainability [1][3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context and Development - In the late 1970s, the village of Houyang faced severe poverty, leading to deforestation as villagers sought livelihoods [2]. - Huang Zhenfang, a local resident, took a loan of 80,000 yuan to cultivate 50 acres of barren land, initiating a successful reforestation project [2]. - The concept of "living timber loans" was introduced by Xi Jinping, allowing farmers to use young trees as collateral for loans, thus opening new financial pathways for forestry [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Innovations and Impact - The establishment of a market for living timber in 1989 marked a significant shift in forestry management, allowing for the monetization of forest resources [2][3]. - Financial products such as "forest tickets" and "carbon credit loans" have emerged, injecting vitality into the forestry sector and facilitating sustainable development [4][6]. - By 2024, Huang Zhenfang's family forest achieved an annual income exceeding 1.2 million yuan, a significant increase from less than 30,000 yuan in 1989, demonstrating the financial benefits of these innovations [6]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The integration of green finance into the local economy has led to the development of a "forest economy" that combines forestry with tourism and agriculture [7]. - The People's Bank of China has emphasized the importance of high-quality financial services to support economic development, with a focus on rural areas [7]. - As of mid-2023, the total social financing scale reached 430.22 trillion yuan, reflecting a growing trend in financial support for the real economy [7]. Group 4: Future Directions - The ongoing reforms in financial services aim to enhance the accessibility and effectiveness of financial products for rural communities, ensuring that financial resources are aligned with local development needs [10][11]. - The success of the living timber loan model is being replicated in other regions, indicating a potential for widespread adoption of similar financial innovations across the country [15][16].

报告又指，香港可发挥"超级联系人"的角色，通过持续优化和放宽跨境举措，如跨境理财通（WMC） 和基金互认（MRF）安排，进一步深化香港与内地投资者的联系。此外，愈来愈多资产管理公司关注 内地的养老金改革，期望借着庞大的养老金资产池，扩大投资者基数并开创新的收入来源。 毕马威中国亚太区资产管理税务部主管合伙人兼香港特别行政区另类投资部主管包迪云（Darren Bowdern）表示，跨境资格互认的持续推进具有重大意义，将使香港咨询公司能够在中国内地提供更广 泛的产品。随着中国内地市场的进一步开放，愈来愈多中国投资者寻求全球投资机会，香港资产管理公 司将处于一个独特的有利位置，以服务这一新兴市场。 同时，香港在监管和支持虚拟资产行业发展方面的努力备受关注，预计2025年将成为市场增长的重要一 年。随着本地虚拟资产交易平台数量的增加，以及监管机构持续为虚拟资产交易活动提供明确指引，香 港在规范和合法化这一行业的过程中取得了显著进展。 毕马威中国香港特别行政区证券和资产管理主管合伙人徐明慧表示，香港正致力于优化UFE制度、促进 活跃的IPO市场，以及建立清晰的虚拟资产监管框架，向全球资产管理公司发出强烈信号，展现了有效 ...

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy direction has become clear, focusing on boosting consumption and optimizing policies related to the consumption of goods [1] - The recent State Council meeting emphasized the need to regulate irrational competition in the new energy vehicle industry and to promote high-quality development [1] - The "anti-involution" theme has shown strong performance in sectors such as photovoltaic, steel, building materials, and coal since July [1] Group 2 - The Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the importance of preventing "involution-style" competition and ensuring the exit of inefficient production capacity [2] - The current macroeconomic conditions differ from last year, leading to a more pronounced "anti-involution" effect this year [3] - The supply-demand mismatch in upstream resource products has led to price declines, prompting manufacturers to engage in price competition [3][4] Group 3 - The current price levels of products like rebar and coking coal have stabilized, indicating a better alignment with supply-demand conditions compared to last year [4] - The focus of the current policies is on supply-side control rather than demand stimulation, which may lead to structural market movements [4] - Investors are advised to pay attention to ETFs that benefit directly from capacity reduction, such as steel and coal ETFs [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.18 billion to 1.28 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% to 30% [5] - The company's strong performance is driven by both domestic and international markets, with significant growth in its earthmoving machinery business due to favorable equipment renewal policies and recovering industry demand [5] - The management transition has not affected the company's market-oriented reforms, and ongoing incentive mechanisms are expected to drive long-term development [6] - The company's overseas business has shown high-quality growth, with revenue from international operations reaching 13.76 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.05% [7] - The company forecasts revenues of 34.86 billion, 39.66 billion, and 44.45 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.01, 1.43, and 1.94 yuan [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.18 billion to 1.28 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a growth rate of 20% to 30% compared to the same period in 2024 [5] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 2.04 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 53.7% [11] Market Dynamics - The domestic market benefits from equipment renewal policies and recovering demand, while the international market is supported by a comprehensive globalization strategy [5][7] - The company's overseas revenue accounted for 45.77% of total revenue in 2024, indicating a significant contribution from international operations [7] Management and Strategy - The management transition is expected to maintain the company's strategic direction and market-oriented operations, with a focus on enhancing profitability and shareholder returns [6] - The company has implemented a dual-track incentive mechanism combining market-based compensation and equity incentives to boost core team performance [6] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued revenue growth, with projected revenues increasing from 34.86 billion yuan in 2025 to 44.45 billion yuan in 2027 [9] - The expected EPS growth reflects the company's strong operational performance and market positioning [9]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 7 月 18 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-18） | | | | 铁矿：近期反内卷政策提振黑色市场情绪，铁矿石盘面大幅拉涨。矿山季 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 末冲量基本结束，全球铁矿发运有一定程度下降，近端到港量由于前期发 | | | | | 运高位环比增加，后续供应依然宽松。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量降，但 | | | 铁矿石 | 上行 | 铁水产量环比涨 2.63 万吨至 242.44 万吨，铁矿港口库存小幅累库，铁矿 | | | | | 基本面短期尚可。供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨， | | | | | 原料跟涨。中长期看，铁矿石中长期看整体呈现供应逐步回升、需求相对 | | | | | 低位、港口库存步入累库通道的局面，供需过剩格局不变，介于短期情绪 | | | | | 扰动，短期大幅拉涨并突破 750 元/吨一线，铁矿偏强为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：焦炭首轮提涨尘埃落定，刚需变化不大，短期内焦炭价格维持涨势。 | | | 煤焦 ...

AI基金农银医疗保健股票（000913）披露2025年二季报，第二季度基金利润1.42亿元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.1565元。报告期内，基金净值增长率为 10.67%，截至二季度末，基金规模为14.41亿元。 该基金属于标准股票型基金，长期投资于医药医疗股票。截至7月17日，单位净值为1.875元。基金经理是梦圆，目前管理2只基金近一年均为正收益。其 中，截至7月17日，农银医疗保健股票近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达38.71%；农银创新医疗混合最低，为37.57%。 基金管理人在二季报中表示，展望 2025 年，我们将投资关键词定义为创新+医疗 AI+自主可控+国企改革。 截至7月17日，农银医疗保健股票近三个月复权单位净值增长率为26.79%，位于同类可比基金28/54；近半年复权单位净值增长率为42.95%，位于同类可比基 金22/54；近一年复权单位净值增长率为38.71%，位于同类可比基金24/53；近三年复权单位净值增长率为-9.44%，位于同类可比基金24/46。 通过所选区间该基金净值增长率分位图，可以观察该基金与同类基金业绩比较情况。图为坐标原点到区间内某时点的净值增长率在同类基金中 ...

泰国财政部长：相信修改后的提案会达到目标，让美国满意。 ...

另外，在重仓股方面，二季度鹏华碳中和的前十大重仓股也有明显调整，共更换了6只个股，但主要还是集中在机器人概念板 块。 一季度的"网红"基金鹏华碳中和今日披露了二季报，记者注意到，二季度该基金C类份额继续出现百亿以上的申购，但同时赎回 也超过90亿，资金呈现短期快进快出趋势。 二季度再现百亿申购 鹏华碳中和最新披露的二季报显示，二季度C类份额的总申购又超过了100亿份，达到100.5亿份，但同时也有93.6亿份的赎回。 可以看出，不少投资者二季度买入后很快就又赎回，短期追逐的迹象非常明显。 | 项目 | 鹏华碳中和主题混合 A | 鹏华碳中和主题混合 C | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告期期初基金份额总额 | 1, 610, 320, 512. 91 | 5, 302, 457, 851. 19 | | 报告期期间基金总申购份额 | 1,213,783,856.98 | 10, 053, 230, 184. 61 | | 减:报告期期间基金总赎回份额 | 1, 421, 553, 303. 08 | 9,357, 470, 371. 91 | | 报告期期间基金拆分变动份额(份额减 | | ...