"在我看来，更高的关税可能导致全球供应链中断，并对通胀造成持续的上行压力，"巴尔表示。他还指 出，企业需要时间来调整分销网络。一些供应商，尤其是小企业，可能无法足够快地适应，可能会倒 闭，这加剧了供应链的混乱。巴尔说："我同样担心，随着经济放缓，关税将导致失业率上升。""因 此，如果我们同时看到通胀和失业率上升，美联储可能会陷入困境。" 威廉姆斯直言，很难预测美联储的下一步行动。他还表示，央行的独立性能带来更好的结果。 瑞典北欧斯安银行预计，美联储最终将把重点放在支持经济增长上，并忽略通胀的暂时上升。如果长期 通胀预期保持在可控范围内，并与通胀目标保持一致，美联储应该能够忽略关税造成的暂时性通胀冲 击。还有一种可能性是，关税不确定性对经济的短期影响将超过当前预期。但就目前而言，美联储认为 此举对经济的影响有限，贸易谈判也有一些进展的迹象。 美元汇率方面，ING外汇分析师Francesco Pesole指出，本周后半段美元表现强劲，主要得益于贸易方面 的积极消息和美联储的鹰派立场。目前市场预计美联储将在年底前降息68个基点，首次降息可能在9 月。无论如何，美国贸易动态仍是美元的最重要驱动力，美元的看涨势头需要持 ...

申银万国期货表示，英国和美国就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，英国将对美商品关税从5.1%降至 1.8%，美国则维持对英进口商品10%的统一关税不变，英国将进一步放宽对美商品市场准入，特朗普表 示协议最终细节将在接下来几周内敲定。5月利率会议上美联储继续按兵不动，鲍威尔多次提及未来失 业率和通胀的上升风险，表明持续的观望态度。短期内美联储难有明确表态，当前关注重心在贸易谈判 进展和新的经济数据表现上。5月开始公布的经济数据将逐渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈 现更将明显的滞胀态势。首个贸易协议有望达成令风险情绪有所好转，但地缘冲突和央行购金需求继续 提供支撑，整体上黄金或延续偏强整理表现。 五矿期货表示，当前的美联储货币政策预期以及海外关税风险的释放对于贵金属价格形成短线的利空因 素，但从美国财政赤字的扩张进程来看，黄金价格中期上涨驱动仍未发生变化，建议等待价格出现明显 回调后逢低布局多单，沪金主力合约参考运行区间767-836 元／克，在联储鹰派货币政策表态的背景 下，白银价格将会表现偏弱。 新华财经北京5月9日电国际金价本周宽幅震荡，技术上看，3200美元和3450美元成为COMEX黄金短期 主要支撑和压 ...

1、中东局势（以色列与伊朗冲突）、德国政治不确定性及特朗普对好莱坞征收100%关税的政策扰动仍在，持续刺激避险需求，对黄金价格有一定的支撑作 用。但美英达成贸易协议，使得市场避险情绪显著降温，风险偏好升温，导致国际金价大幅下挫，这显示出地缘政治局势对黄金价格影响的复杂性，不同事 件的综合作用使得市场对避险需求的态度有所转变。 2、美联储5月7日维持利率不变，且声明强调"通胀压力仍需观察"，市场对6月降息预期降温，美元指数得到支撑有所回升，这压制了以美元计价的黄金的吸 引力。同时，市场对即将公布的美国4月CPI数据（预期3.5%）较为关注，若数据超预期，可能进一步强化美联储鹰派立场，对黄金价格形成更大压力；若 数据疲软，则可能使降息预期升温，从而对黄金价格产生支撑。 3、2025年一季度全球央行净购金290吨，中国连续17个月增持黄金储备，央行的持续购金行为表明对黄金长期价值的认可，从长期来看，为黄金价格提供了 有力支撑。不过在短期，央行购金行为对黄金市场价格的影响相对较小，难以抵消其他宏观因素如货币政策和地缘政治局势变化带来的短期波动。 黄金技术面分析： 黄金消息面解析 昨日现货黄金价格开盘3366.2美元/ ...

当天晚些时候，万斯接受媒体采访时也向鲍威尔开炮。万斯称虽然鲍威尔是个好人，"但他几乎什么事 都做错了。"他指责鲍威尔在遏制前总统约瑟夫·拜登制造的通胀时行动迟缓，现在在协助美国反击贸易 协议上也行动迟缓。万斯特别指出，他认为鲍威尔的货币政策是错的。 周三，鲍威尔在美联储货币政策会议后表示，如果美国政府公布的关税政策持续实施，"可能造成通胀 上升、经济增长放缓和失业率上涨"，美联储要实现目标将推迟到明年。他重申，特朗普政府的关税幅 度超出了美联储预期，美国经济前景的不确定性显著提升。 鲍威尔称目前美联储的政策立场良好，"我们不认为我们需要着急，我们认为现在保持耐心是合适 的。"他还否决了在通胀目标尚未实现时采取预防性降息的想法，强调目前的情况无法让美联储采取预 防性行动。 对于特朗普的施压，鲍威尔明确特朗普敦促降息的言论不会影响美联储工作。他也没有要求与特朗普会 面，"之后也不会，我不认为美联储主席应该寻求与总统会面。"此前特朗普一度威胁要炒掉鲍威尔，在 引发股市动荡后，特朗普被迫改口。 2023年3月7日，美国华盛顿特区，共和党参议员万斯问询美联储主席鲍威尔。图片来源：视觉中国 在美联储连续第三次维持利率不变 ...

在早盘(5月9日)触及3274.75美元/盎司的日内低点后，金价受逢低买盘支撑强劲反弹，最终收涨0.63%至 3327.03美元/盎司。与之联动的美国COMEX黄金期货主力合约同步上扬0.60%，报收于3326美元/盎司， 双双录得技术性修正行情。 美联储货币政策动向继续主导市场情绪。继周三联邦公开市场委员会宣布维持基准利率不变后，多位联 储官员将于今日晚些时候就经济前景及政策路径发表公开讲话。此前美联储在议息声明中特别警示，当 前美国通胀回落进程遭遇阻碍，同时劳动力市场失衡风险有所抬头，这强化了市场对央行维持限制性货 币政策的预期。 贵金属板块整体呈现分化走势：现货白银小幅上涨0.10%至32.486美元/盎司，铂金现货微升0.08%至 982.48美元/盎司，钯金现货则以0.54%的涨幅领涨板块，收报978.30美元/盎司。分析人士认为，在宏观 经济不确定性犹存的背景下，贵金属市场或将延续区间震荡格局，投资者需密切关注即将公布的美联储 官员讲话及下周将出炉的美国CPI数据，以研判后续价格走向。 市场消息面呈现多空交织格局。据央视新闻最新报道，英美两国于当地时间8日就双边贸易协定取得突 破性进展，英国政府同 ...

《五一假期消费强劲，汇率升值提升 宽松货币政策预期》 - 2025.05.06 宏观观点 发布时间：2025-05-09 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 等待更清晰的信号——5 月美联储议息会议点评 l 核心观点 美联储在今日凌晨的 FOMC 会议上决定继续维持联邦基金利率目 标区间在 4.25%-4.50%不变，符合市场预期，各类资产反应平淡。 鲍威尔主席在新闻发布会上强调，尽管存在较高的不确定性，美 国经济仍然稳健。失业率保持在较低水平，通胀虽已大幅下降，但仍 略高于美联储 2%的长期目标。虽然第一季度 GDP 数据出现小幅下滑， 但这主要反映了净出口的波动，很可能是因为企业"抢进口"导致。 排除净出口、库存投资及政府支出的私人国内最终购买(PDFP)在第一 季度仍以稳健的 3%的速度增长，与去年的增速持平。 如果用一个词来概括本场发布会鲍威尔的核心观点，那就是"等 待观察"。鲍威尔认为， ...

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis of Spot Gold - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with differing opinions on potential rate cuts within the year, which could enhance gold's value preservation demand [2] - Strong U.S. employment data may raise inflation concerns, supporting gold prices; however, March core PCE data showed a slowdown in inflation, leading to a more cautious monetary policy from the Fed [2] - Economic data from major economies like China will also impact physical demand for gold and global capital flows [2] Group 2: Geopolitical and Market Sentiment - Escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East have heightened market risk aversion, driving funds into gold and supporting its price [3] - Fluctuations in global financial markets and unpredictable trade policies have led investors to seek refuge in gold, pushing prices higher [3] - The interplay of Fed monetary policy, economic data, geopolitical tensions, and market sentiment collectively influences gold prices, with a potential short-term target of $3,500 per ounce if dovish Fed statements and worsening geopolitical situations persist [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Spot Gold - The spot gold market initially broke through the key resistance level of $3,399, reaching an intraday peak of $3,414.79, but subsequently reversed direction [4] - After a brief consolidation, gold prices fell to the target level of $3,322, achieving a notable profit margin of $42 [4] - Current technical indicators suggest a dominant bearish trend, with short-term moving averages suppressing long-term averages, indicating a high likelihood of continued downward movement [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Spot Silver - The spot silver market showed expected behavior, rebounding to $33.750 before retreating to a low of $32.295, where signs of stabilization emerged [6] - The short-term chart indicates a prevailing bearish trend, with short-term moving averages consistently crossing below long-term averages [6] - Suggested trading strategy includes waiting for silver prices to rebound to the resistance level of $32.660 for a short position, with a stop-loss set at $32.960 and a profit target at $32.240 [6]

CNBC称，谈及鲍威尔"不想降息"，特朗普对记者说，"我认为他不想这么做，可能是他不爱我。我觉 得没关系，这是个疯狂的理由，但生活就是这样"。 此前，美联储当地时间7日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25% 至4.50%之间不变。这是自今年1月和3月会议以来，美联储连续第三次不降息。美联储在会后发表声明 说，近几个月来失业率稳定在较低水平，劳动力市场状况依然稳固，但通货膨胀仍"一定程度上处于高 位"。美联储认为，经济前景的不确定性"进一步增加"。美联储还表示，"失业率上升和通胀加剧的风险 有所增加"，这是此前声明中没有的内容，体现出美联储对最新美国经济形势的担忧。 美国广播公司提到，在美联储维持利率不变的前几周，白宫敦促美联储降息，并扬言要解雇鲍威尔。随 后，特朗普软化了此前对鲍威尔的抨击，虽表示在明年任期结束前不会解雇他，但仍一再重申对目前利 率水平的不满，并敦促其尽快降息。 当地时间7日议息会议后，当被问到美国总统要求降息的问题时，鲍威尔对白宫的批评"不屑一顾"。他 警告称，"如果已宣布的大幅提高关税措施持续下去，可能会导致通胀上升、经济增长放缓和失业率上 升"。他还表示， ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market saw a collective rise on May 8, with the Nasdaq index increasing by over 1%, and the Dow Jones and S&P 500 rising by 0.62% and 0.58% respectively, driven by President Trump's call for citizens to "buy stocks" and a new trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K. [1] - The U.S.-U.K. trade agreement includes key concessions in the automotive, agricultural, and industrial sectors, with specific tariffs set for U.K. car exports and the complete removal of U.S. tariffs on U.K. steel and aluminum products [1] - Boeing announced a $10 billion order for wide-body aircraft from a U.K. airline, boosting confidence in the industrial sector and contributing to a more than 4% increase in Boeing's stock price [1] Group 2 - Major tech stocks, including Tesla and Nvidia, were central to the market's rise, with both seeing increases of over 3%, influenced by expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] - The U.S. core PCE price index for January fell to 2.6%, the lowest since June 2024, leading to a decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields and reinforcing bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 [2] - Trump's previous calls to "buy stocks" have historically led to short-term market spikes, but the long-term effects have often resulted in market corrections [3] Group 3 - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of the current market rally, as corporate earnings growth is slowing while valuations remain high, particularly among major tech companies [3] - The delayed effects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift are becoming apparent, with high federal funds rates potentially increasing corporate financing costs and impacting tech companies' capital expenditures [3] - Global geopolitical risks and supply chain restructuring are expected to impact multinational companies' earnings, with the U.S.-U.K. trade agreement potentially exacerbating trade tensions with European allies [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current expectations of the Fed's monetary policy and the release of overseas tariff risks are short - term negative factors for precious metal prices. However, from the perspective of the expansion process of the US fiscal deficit, the medium - term upward driving force for gold prices remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the price to show a significant correction and then go long on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 767 - 836 yuan/gram. Against the background of the Fed's hawkish monetary policy stance, silver prices will be weak. Currently, the silver price is still in a wide - range shock range. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday short - selling on rallies. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 7804 - 8380 yuan/kg [2][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold fell 1.81% to 786.42 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver fell 0.12% to 8154.00 yuan/kg; COMEX Gold rose 0.41% to 3319.40 US dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver fell 0.01% to 32.62 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.37%, and the US dollar index was reported at 100.64 [2] - The closing prices, previous trading day prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of various precious metal products such as Au(T + D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc. are presented in detail in the report [4] Market Outlook - US President Trump announced that the US will reach a trade agreement with the UK, canceling tariffs in some areas and expanding the mutual access scope of products between the two countries. German President Merz and Trump agreed to quickly resolve trade disputes, resulting in a phased release of overseas trade risks, which is a short - term negative factor for gold prices [2] - The US labor market data remains resilient. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending May 3 was 228,000, lower than the expected 230,000 and the previous value of 241,000. The Fed's monetary policy stance in the recent interest - rate meeting was hawkish. Powell believes that multiple uncertainties support the Fed to "wait", and all committee members support this, and Trump's request for a rate cut will not affect the Fed's work [2] Key Data of Gold and Silver - For gold, COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 1.84% to 3310.40 US dollars/ounce, trading volume increased by 8.74% to 300,000 lots, and open interest decreased by 2.90% to 451,900 lots. LBMA gold's closing price decreased by 1.18% to 3352.30 US dollars/ounce. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 1.58% to 790.78 yuan/gram, trading volume increased by 18.20% to 882,000 lots, and open interest increased by 2.15% to 455,600 lots. Au(T + D)'s closing price decreased by 1.42% to 787.53 yuan/gram, trading volume increased by 44.55% to 97.67 tons, and open interest increased by 1.71% to 216.40 tons [6] - For silver, COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.02% to 32.61 US dollars/ounce, open interest increased by 3.91% to 152,700 lots, and inventory increased by 0.27% to 15,639 tons. LBMA silver's closing price decreased by 1.35% to 32.43 US dollars/ounce. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) decreased by 1.91% to 8,094.00 yuan/kg, trading volume increased by 41.45% to 1,350,800 lots, and open interest increased by 3.63% to 883,000 lots. Ag(T + D)'s closing price decreased by 1.57% to 8,100.00 yuan/kg, trading volume increased by 50.18% to 663.98 tons, and open interest decreased by 3.78% to 3,362.624 tons [6] Price Structure and Spread - The report presents the near - far month structure of COMEX gold, Shanghai Gold, COMEX silver, and Shanghai Silver, as well as the spreads between London Gold - COMEX gold, London Silver - COMEX silver, SHFE - COMEX, and SGE - LBMA for both gold and silver [18][20][31][38][50]