Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market experienced a significant reversal, with spot gold prices initially dropping nearly 2% to $3120.64, before rebounding to close at $3239.58, marking a daily increase of nearly 2% and a fluctuation of over $100 [1] - The recent volatility in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including reduced demand for safe-haven assets due to easing trade war concerns and a strengthening dollar, while a recovery in physical demand provided some support [14] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, with April's PPI experiencing its largest decline in five years, retail sales slowing, and the New York Fed manufacturing index contracting again, which has heightened expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. may be entering a period of more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, posing challenges for both the economy and the Fed [5] - Despite concerns about a potential recession, there is a cautious optimism among investors as the U.S. stock market shows resilience, although macro and micro-level risks remain [6] Group 3: International Monetary Policy - Mexico's central bank announced a 50 basis point cut in its benchmark interest rate to 8.00%, with indications that similar reductions may follow in future meetings [8] - Goldman Sachs has revised its economic growth forecasts for Mexico, projecting GDP stability in 2025 and an increase in growth expectations for 2026 [8] Group 4: Geopolitical Tensions - The situation in Israel escalated as Houthi forces claimed to have targeted Ben Gurion International Airport with a missile strike, indicating a potential increase in military actions [9][11] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations have faced delays, with uncertainty surrounding the timing and agenda of future talks [12]

博斯蒂克：预计今年降息一次，美国不会陷入衰退 金十数据5月16日讯，美联储博斯蒂克表示，他预计美国经济今年将放缓，但不会陷入衰退，并重申他 预计2025年将降息一次。博斯蒂克说，"由于不确定性和对前景的担忧给消费者带来压力，今年的经济 增长率可能达到0.5%或1%。波动的贸易政策也使企业更不愿意做出重要决定。我预计今年仅降息一 次，部分原因是，我认为不确定性不太可能很快自行解决。"虽然贸易形势有所降温，但博斯蒂克认为 谈判的最终结果仍不明朗。 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：今年的经济增长率可能为1%或0.5%。预计经济增长放缓，但我认为不会出现衰退。 ...

由于不确定性，预计今年将降息一次。 可能不得不顶住来自关税的通胀压力。 我们正处于"巨大转型"时期。 美国亚特兰大联储主席Bostic：不确定性不太可能很快自行解决。 美中关系缓和"稍微"改变了我的看法。 预计经济增长放缓，但我认为不会出现经济衰退。 今年的经济增长率可能在0.5%-1%之间。 ...

金十数据5月16日讯，CMC Markets首席市场分析师Jochen Stanzl表示，在美国经济不会衰退的预期下， 投资者对企业盈利增长持乐观态度。在企业高管继续强调增长风险的同时，他们也在向股东展示稳健的 资产负债表。除受关税打击最严重的汽车、制药和能源行业外，其他行业的公司正在成功应对贸易政策 挑战。 分析师：非衰退预期提振投资者对企业盈利信心 ...

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（5月16日） 2. 美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储正在调整其总体政策制定框架，零利率已不再是一个基本情况，需要重新 考虑就业不足和平均通胀率的措辞，预计4月PCE降至2.2%。 3. 美联储巴尔：美国经济基础稳固，但他警告称，与关税相关的供应链中断可能导致经济增长放缓和通 胀上升。 1. 高盛将2025年韩国GDP增长预期从0.7%上调至1.1%，将越南GDP增长预期从5.3%上调至5.5%。 2. 墨西哥央行降息50个基点至8.50%。该行预计第四季度核心通胀年均水平为3.4%，此前预测为3.3%。 美元： 1. 日媒：美国单方面考虑在关税谈判中修改与日本贸易协定的可能性。 4. 巴克莱不再预计美国在2025年下半年陷入衰退，并将经济增长预期从-0.3%上调至0.5%。 非美主要货币： 其他： 1. 中国央行今日开展1065亿元7天逆回购操作，利率为1.40%，与此前持平。 2. 日本第一季度GDP不及预期，市场预计这将使日本央行推迟加息。 3. 日本财务大臣加藤胜信寻求在下周再次与美国财政部长贝森特就汇率问题进行对话。 4. 新西兰联储调查：新西兰通胀预期在第二季度升至一 ...

Economic Outlook - Barclays has significantly raised its US economic growth forecast for this year to 0.5% from a previous estimate of -0.3%, and for next year to 1.6% from 1.5% [1] - Goldman Sachs has also increased its 2025 US economic growth forecast to 1% from a previous estimate of 0.5%, while reducing the probability of a recession in the next 12 months from 45% to 35% [2] - JPMorgan's economists have lowered the recession risk for the US economy to below 50%, with a new growth forecast of 0.6% for 2025, up from 0.2% [3] Market Sentiment - Following the easing of US-China trade tensions, major Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, have shifted their outlook on US equities from bearish to bullish [2] - Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month target for the S&P 500 index to 6500 from 6200 [2] Federal Reserve Policy - The expectation for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has diminished, with Goldman Sachs now predicting three rate cuts starting in December instead of July [1] - Barclays anticipates only one rate cut in 2025, with three additional cuts of 25 basis points in the following year, a change from their previous expectation of two cuts this year [1] Eurozone Outlook - Barclays has revised its Eurozone growth forecast to flat (0% growth) from a previous estimate of a 0.2% contraction, while still expecting a brief technical recession in late 2025 [3][4]

日本经济在过去一年首次萎缩，关税、通胀对日本经济造成双重打击。 第一季度数据显示，外部需求（出口减去进口）削减了0.8个百分点的增长，其中出口下降0.6%，进口 则增长2.9%。 随着美国关税损害作为日本主要增长引擎之一的出口，持续的通胀也在损害另一个引擎：私人消费（约 占GDP的一半）。周五发布的数据显示，第一季度私人支出环比持平。 "持续的价格上涨通过削弱消费者信心，对日本经济构成下行风险，"经济大臣Ryosei Akazawa周五在新 闻发布会上表示。 Akazawa表示，关税担忧尚未影响消费，但这位负责与美国进行贸易谈判的部长承诺，在最近的政府调 查显示消费者情绪可能恶化后，将密切关注消费者情绪。 企业投资成为唯一亮点 据日本政府周五发布的初步数据显示，日本一季度实际GDP环比下降0.2%，这是一年来首次经济收 缩，弱于经济学家预测的0.1%萎缩，也与前一季度0.6%的增长形成鲜明对比，一季度日本经济按年率 计算萎缩0.7%。 这一GDP数据发布之际，市场正担忧美国关税可能通过抑制出口和降低企业投资意愿，危及日本来之不 易的经济复苏。 凯投宏观亚太区主管Marcel Thieliant表示： 由于贸易 ...

金十数据5月16日讯，巴克莱银行在周四晚间发布的一份报告中表示，由于美中贸易紧张局势出现缓和 迹象，美国经济今年陷入衰退的可能性已大幅降低，因此该行上调了对美国经济增长的预测。巴克莱目 前预计，美国经济将在今年增长0.5%，2026年增长1.6%，分别高于此前预测的-0.3%和1.5%。与此同 时，随着不确定性下降和整体经济环境改善，巴克莱也上调了对欧元区的增长预期。目前预计欧元区今 年将实现零增长，好于此前预测的萎缩0.2%。不过，欧元区仍可能在今年下半年出现技术性衰退，只 是衰退幅度将小于之前的预期。"总体而言，我们对欧元区的增长前景依然持谨慎态度，因为当前不确 定性仍然很高，欧美之间关于对等关税的谈判仍停留在技术层面，且尚未出现任何进展迹象。" 巴克莱上调美国及欧元区增长预期 但警告风险犹存 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trade situation appears to be easing, while the economy still faces shallow and short recession risks [1] Group 1 - The European Central Bank's council member Martins Kazaks commented on the current trade dynamics [1] - There is an indication that the economic outlook remains fragile, with potential for a brief recession [1]