Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Tight Balance Expectations Heat Up, Copper Prices Fluctuate at High Levels [1] Core Views - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at high levels. The main reasons were that the US manufacturing industry returned to the expansion range and the Chinese central bank introduced loose policies to continuously inject vitality into the economy. However, the US tax reform bill will face high budget deficit pressure in the future, slightly suppressing market risk appetite. The market has fully digested the optimistic sentiment such as the China-US trade truce, and there is a short - term lack of macro - logical drivers. In addition, a global well - known commodity giant warned of the risk of a "copper shortage" this year, stating that the strong demand from China's new energy industry and the pre - demand due to US tariff premiums will break the original supply - demand balance, and it is expected that the global refined copper gap may reach as much as 300,000 tons in 2025 [2]. - Overall, the strong resilience of the US economy and a series of economic stimulus policies introduced by China continue to boost copper prices. However, after the release of the optimistic sentiment from the previous China - US negotiations, there is currently a lack of core macro - drivers, and the uncertainty of tariff hikes and trade policies still continuously disrupts the global supply chain. Fundamentally, the interference rate at the upstream mine end has increased, the domestic refined copper supply margin has widened, and the social inventory has rebounded from a low level. It is expected that copper prices will maintain high - level fluctuations and wait for future direction guidance [3][12] Market Data Price Changes - LME copper rose from $9,440.00 to $9,614.00, an increase of $174.00 or 1.84% [4]. - COMEX copper rose from 459.15 cents/pound to 486.5 cents/pound, an increase of 27.35 cents or 5.96% [4]. - SHFE copper fell from 78,140.00 yuan/ton to 77,790.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350.00 yuan or - 0.45% [4]. - International copper fell from 69,350.00 yuan/ton to 69,030.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320.00 yuan or - 0.46% [4]. - The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.28 to 8.09, a decrease of 0.19 [4]. - LME spot premium/discount fell from $31.45 to $31.14, a decrease of $0.31 or - 0.99% [4]. - Shanghai spot premium/discount fell from 445 yuan to 165 yuan, a decrease of 280 yuan [4]. Inventory Changes - LME inventory decreased from 179,375 tons to 164,725 tons, a decrease of 14,650 tons or - 8.17% [7]. - COMEX inventory increased from 169,664 short tons to 175,631 short tons, an increase of 5,967 short tons or 3.52% [7]. - SHFE inventory decreased from 108,124 tons to 98,653 tons, a decrease of 9,471 tons or - 8.76% [7]. - Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased from 71,500 tons to 59,800 tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons or - 16.36% [7]. - Total inventory decreased from 528,663 tons to 498,809 tons, a decrease of 29,854 tons or - 5.65% [7] Market Analysis and Outlook Macro - aspect - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.3, a three - month high, significantly higher than the expected 49.9. The new orders sub - index rose significantly to 53.3, expanding for five consecutive months. After the trade war subsided, enterprises' expectations for future output turned optimistic, but some producers also reported high cost - end pressure. The export orders index showed two consecutive months of contraction. The passage of the Trump tax reform bill by the US House of Representatives intensified the sell - off in the US Treasury market, dragging down the center of the US stock index and market risk appetite. It is estimated that the bill will increase the US budget deficit by $2.7 trillion in ten years [10]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The market generally expects the ECB to cut interest rates slightly again in June. The Chinese central bank lowered the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR by 10 basis points, and the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to improve the institutional mechanism for promoting the development of the private economy [10]. Supply - demand aspect - This week, the spot TC remained below - $40/ton. The underground mining operations of the eastern area of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine under Ivanhoe have been fully suspended due to multiple earthquakes. The Cobre Panama project under First Quantum restarted after signing a new agreement, and the Antamina copper mine in Peru has not returned to normal levels. The interference rate at the upstream mine end continues to increase [11]. - In terms of refined copper, domestic refined copper production is running at a high level, but the TC negotiation is approaching in the middle of the year. Maintaining negative processing fees for a long time may cause some small and medium - sized smelters in China to face production cuts. Recently, the volume of imported goods from South America has gradually decreased but is limited. The supply margin has changed from tight to loose, but the sustainability needs further observation. In terms of demand, power grid investment projects are advancing steadily. The weekly operating rate of copper cable enterprises is 82.3%, and that of refined copper rod enterprises is about 73%, slightly lower than the same period in previous years. The current concern on the demand side is the significant decline in demand after the photovoltaic installation rush. In addition, the copper demand growth rate of emerging industries is stable, with new energy vehicles performing very well, and the copper demand in the artificial intelligence field and data centers is also increasing [11]. Industry News - According to the latest WBMS report, in March 2025, the global refined copper production reached 2.513 million tons, and the consumption was 2.493 million tons, with a supply surplus of 20,500 tons. From January to March this year, the total global refined copper production was 7.2832 million tons, and the total consumption was 7.0125 million tons, with a total supply surplus of 270,800 tons, and the supply gap is decreasing month by month [14]. - Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter in East Java has resumed operation ahead of schedule after a fire - related shutdown last October. It is expected to start producing cathode copper in the fourth week of June and reach full - load production in December. In March this year, the Indonesian government issued a six - month license to Freeport Indonesia, allowing it to export 1.27 million tons of copper concentrate [14]. - Ivanhoe has suspended the underground mining operations of its Kakula copper mine due to earthquake activities in the eastern mining area of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. After inspection, the seismic activity in the past 24 hours has significantly decreased, and the western area of the Kakula mine has been declared safe, with mining operations about to resume. The processing capacity of the No. 1 and No. 2 concentrators of the Kakula mine has decreased, and currently only processes ore from the surface stockpile [15]. - According to Mysteel research data, last week, the processing fee range of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China rose to 530 - 650 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 160 - 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The rapid decline in processing fees was due to the decline in the premium after the monthly contract change, and the high - level fluctuation of copper prices around 78,000 yuan made downstream enterprises wait - and - see, with low restocking willingness and mainly for rigid demand procurement. In the East China market, the transaction volume of the refined copper rod market increased slightly last week. In the South China market, downstream enterprises mainly took delivery of long - term orders, and the zero - order trading volume was limited [16]. Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of Shanghai copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange and bonded area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrants, COMEX inventory and cancelled warrants, Shanghai copper basis trend, etc. These charts are sourced from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [17][18][19]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significance of the Panlongcheng site in Hubei, which serves as a central hub for the governance model of ancient China and the development of bronze civilization in the Yangtze River basin [1] Archaeological Discoveries - The Panlongcheng site was discovered in 1954 and confirmed as belonging to the early Shang Dynasty in 1958, with large-scale excavations starting in 1974 [1] - Recently, the site was selected as one of the "Top Ten Archaeological Discoveries of 2024" [1] - New findings from the Yangjiawan area include a large strip-shaped stone structure, marking the first discovery of such a construction in the Yangtze River midstream during the Xia and Shang periods [2][4] Cultural Artifacts - A bronze axe unearthed from the Li Jiazui No. 2 tomb is noted as the largest known early Shang bronze axe, symbolizing military power [6] - The Yangjiawan M17 tomb yielded significant artifacts, including a unique turquoise-inlaid gold ornament, which is one of the earliest gold and jade inlaid decorations found in the Central Plains culture [8] - The site also revealed a bronze vessel with features of multiple bronze wine vessels, showcasing the artistic and aesthetic characteristics of the Shang Dynasty [11] Historical Context - The Panlongcheng site is positioned as a crucial center for early bronze civilization in the Yangtze River basin, reflecting the cultural exchanges between the Yellow River and Yangtze River regions [13][16] - The site has been linked to the Zhengzhou city in terms of ritual artifacts, indicating a high degree of consistency in material culture and customs between the two locations [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a short-term surge in copper futures prices due to a sudden earthquake at Zijin Mining's copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, raising concerns about a potential global copper supply shortage exceeding expectations [1] Group 2 - The incident at Zijin Mining's copper mine may lead to disruptions in production, which could exacerbate existing supply constraints in the copper market [1] - The global copper market is already facing challenges, and this event could further impact pricing and availability [1]

Core Insights - The development of photonic chips is seen as a significant breakthrough in overcoming Moore's Law, with global investments aimed at practical applications [1] - A team led by Professor Wang Cheng has created a microwave photonic chip that processes electronic signals at speeds 1000 times faster than traditional processors, with lower energy consumption [1][2] - The establishment of a startup, Xili Photonics Technology, indicates that the technology is moving closer to practical application, having secured multi-million funding [2] Group 1: Technological Advancements - The new microwave photonic chip utilizes a lithium niobate platform, enhancing system stability and cost-effectiveness [2] - The chip's capabilities include ultra-fast simulation of electronic signal processing and high precision in calculations [1][2] - The research focuses on integrating more complex functions into photonic chips to facilitate real-world applications [2][3] Group 2: Market and Industry Context - Despite a decline in market enthusiasm for financing, government support for hard technology remains strong, which may benefit the development of foundational technologies in China [2] - The shift towards optical interconnects in data centers is driven by the increasing demands of AI models, replacing traditional copper cables with fiber optics [7][8] - The concept of "optical interconnect" is becoming more prevalent, with fiber optics being used for both long-distance and short-distance data transmission [7] Group 3: Future Directions and Applications - The focus is on achieving higher levels of photonic system integration, with plans to explore applications in radar, microwave signal processing, and spectrum sensing [5][6] - The company aims to develop a high-performance integrated photonic chip platform, with potential applications in autonomous driving and 6G communication [11][12] - The integration of multiple devices on a single chip is a key goal, allowing for complex functionalities previously requiring larger systems [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Hengbang Smelting Co., Ltd. maintains an AA+ credit rating with a stable outlook, primarily due to its advantages in gold smelting, scale, technology, and strong shareholder support, despite facing challenges such as increased inventory, declining processing fees, and rising financial leverage [1][4][5]. Company Overview - The company focuses on gold smelting and has established a certain scale and technological advantage in the industry [1][4]. - It has diversified into non-ferrous metal smelting and the recovery of various valuable elements, which supplement its revenue and profit [1][4]. - The company benefits from strong support from its controlling shareholder, Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd., which enhances its financial and strategic capabilities [4][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total assets of 247.24 billion yuan and total liabilities of 116.84 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.66 billion yuan [3]. - The operating income for 2024 was 500.47 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase compared to previous years [3]. - The company's financial leverage has increased, with total debt rising to 86.57 billion yuan, indicating a weakening in debt repayment capacity [1][3]. Market Conditions - Gold prices have surged, with the average price in 2024 reaching 2,403.55 USD/ounce, a year-on-year increase of 22.97% [5]. - The domestic gold price also rose significantly, with a year-end price of 616.68 yuan/gram, up 28.30% from the beginning of the year [5]. - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations, with processing fees declining, which may impact the profitability of related enterprises [6][14]. Operational Challenges - The company has faced challenges such as increased inventory levels due to expanded operations and rising capital expenditures [1][4]. - Safety incidents have led to temporary production halts, affecting the output of copper and sulfuric acid [13][14]. - The company is under scrutiny for safety management practices following a significant production safety incident [14]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding its gold mining resources and enhancing its smelting capabilities through various ongoing projects [9][17]. - It aims to strengthen its position in the high-end materials manufacturing sector by leveraging its existing resources [9][17]. - The company is also working on integrating its operations with its controlling shareholder to avoid competition and enhance resource control [10][17].

证券代码：002203 证券简称：海亮股份 浙江海亮股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025005 投 资 者 关 系 活 动类别 √特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观 □其他 （请文字说明其他活动内容） 参 与 单 位 名 称 及人员姓名 具体参会名单详见附件 时间 2025 年 5 月 14 日（周三） 地点 浙江省杭州市滨江区海亮科研大厦会议室 上 市 公 司 接 待 人员姓名 董事会秘书 童莹莹 投资者关系活 动主要内容介 绍 董事会秘书童莹莹女士向投资者介绍了海亮股份的发展历 程、使命愿景、产品服务、全球布局、对外投资、未来展望等。 公司就投资者在本次调研活动中提出的问题进行了回复： 问题一、请问公司在全球拥有 23 个生产基地，未来在海外 市场拓展方面有哪些具体计划？管理层对海外基地未来的经营 预期如何？ 您好！公司在全球范围内布局 23 个生产基地，国内基地覆 盖浙江、上海、安徽、广东、四川、重庆、甘肃、山东等省市， 而海外基地则遍及美国、德国、法国、意大利、西班牙、越南、 泰国、印度尼西亚、摩洛哥等国家。 公司管理层以前瞻性战略眼 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Polish Finance Minister announced that a proposed bill to reduce copper mining taxes will lead to a budget revenue decrease of approximately 1 billion zloty over the next ten years [1] Group 1 - The proposed tax reduction is aimed at the copper mining sector [1] - The financial impact of the tax reduction is significant, with a projected loss of 1 billion zloty in budget revenue [1] - The timeframe for this revenue decrease is set at ten years, indicating a long-term fiscal consideration [1]

有色金属丨日报 s 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 证监许可【2011】1772 号 有色金属研究员：薛丽冰 联系电话：020-88523420 从业资格号：F03090983 投资咨询号：Z0016886 二、基本面情况 宏观方面，美国出现股债汇三杀，30 年期美债收益率升破 5%。 供给方面，2025 年 4 月我国铜废料及碎料进口呈现"环比回暖、 同比收缩"的态势，单月进口量 20.47 万吨，环比增长 7.92%，但较去 年同期下降 9.46%。1-4 月累计进口 77.7 万吨，同比微降 0.81%。3-4 月数据显示，美国对华铜废料出口呈现"双降"特征:3 月出口量 225 万吨(环比-28.41%，同比-51.51%)，不在中国市场的份额降至 11.85%， 排名跌落至第二位；4 月虽环比微增 4.98%至 2.36 万吨，但同比仍大 幅下滑 43.98%,份额进一步萎缩至 11.52%，排名被泰国反超滑落至第 三。与此形成鲜明对比的是亚洲供应链的强势崛起。日本 4 月对华出 口量达 3.27 万吨，环比增长 21.02%，同比逆势增长 13.78%，以 15.96% 的占比稳居榜首。另外泰国市场， ...

其他电子零组件Ⅲ 鼎通科技（688668.SH） 买入-B(首次) 2025 年 5 月 22 日 公司研究/公司快报 | 市场数据：2025 年 | 月 5 | 日 21 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元）： | | | 48.55 | | 总股本（亿股）： | | | 1.39 | | 流通股本（亿股）： | | | 1.39 | | 流通市值（亿元）： | | | 67.35 | | 基础数据：2025 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 3 | 31 | 每股净资产（元）： | 13.42 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 每股资本公积（元）： | 9.10 | | | | | | | | 每股未分配利润（元）： | 2.95 | | | | | | | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | | | | | | 高宇洋 执业登记编码：S0760523050002 邮箱：gaoyuyang@sxzq.com 张天 执业登记编码：S0760523120001 邮箱：zhangtian@sxzq.com 孙 ...

据外媒报道，在阿塞拜疆从事黄金、白银和铜矿开采的英国盎格鲁亚洲矿业公司(Anglo-AsianMining Plc.)表示，Gilar矿已经开始生产。该矿是阿塞拜疆Gedabek矿场的一部分。该公司的目标是每年开采 2000吨左右矿石，随着运营增加，月度产量目标为5-6万盎司。 据外媒报道，加拿大Ivanhoe Mines周二表示，由于地震活动，公司已暂停刚果（金）Kakula铜矿地下开 采作业。 一、行情回顾 昨日夜盘，沪铜期货震荡走弱，主力2506合约收于77770元/吨，跌幅0.42%。 二、基本面汇总 三、机构观点 冠通期货：整体来说，市场对经济保持不确定性预期，铜价有所承压，基本面方面，需求端边际走弱， 但目前社会库存仍处于低位水平，供应端偏紧预期依然存在，铜价呈现震荡上行趋势，但临近需求旺季 尾声，虽有国内增量政策提振，但目前呈现强预期弱现实状态，整体依然承压，需持续关注美联储降息 概率及中美关税政策情况。 广州期货：宏观面，地缘政治紧张情绪急剧升温，黄金上涨提振铜价。当前美国制造业和就业数据暂 稳，叠加贸易战缓和，衰退风险减弱，但整体经济仍处于持续走弱态势中，对于铜价仍有压制。基本 面，当前铜矿 ...