转自：凤凰新闻 2025年7月9日下午，由南方科技大学风险分析预测与管控研究院（以下简称 "风险院"）、 苏黎世大学-苏黎世联邦理工学院量化金融硕士项目 （MScQF）、深圳市比梵文化科技有限公司、新瑞商学院主办的"2025苏黎世-深圳数量金融风险夏令营"开营仪式顺利举行。 夏令营全体合照 欧洲科学院院士、瑞士工程院院士、风险院联席院长、讲席教授Didier Sornette院士，深圳康节问对科技有限公司CEO林骏先生，以及深圳顺络电子股份 有限公司副总裁李宇先生出席活动并分别致辞。 特邀讲师邵浩博士带来讲座 作为本次夏令营的特邀讲师，瑞桐（杭州）私募基金管理有限公司总经理、首席投资官邵浩博士，以 "国内外量化投资发展现状和前沿" 为主题带来了夏 令营第一场讲座。讲座内容丰富全面，吸引了同学们积极参与，现场气氛热烈高涨。邵浩博士在讲座中深入浅出地介绍了量化投资的发展历程以及国内目 前量化基金行业的现状。他指出，随着金融市场的不断发展和信息技术的迅猛进步，以著名投资家巴菲特为代表的传统人工投资方式面临着越来越多的挑 战；而量化投资不仅能够更高效地挖掘投资机会，还能有效规避风险，提高资产的长期收益率。同时，邵浩博 ...

文/国联民生证券股份有限公司股权衍生品业务部高级副总裁 张橙逸 我国养老金融面临的结构性挑战 根据国家统计局2025年1月数据，2024年末，中国60岁及以上人口达到3.1亿，占全国人口的22.0%；其中65岁及以上 人口为2.2亿，占全国人口的15.6%。据测算，预计2035年左右，60岁及以上老年人口将突破4亿，在总人口中的占比 将超过30%，进入重度老龄化阶段。习近平总书记早在2016年就对我国人口老龄化有深刻的论述：与其他国家相 比，我国人口老龄化呈现如下四个核心特点：规模大，发展速度快，持续时间长，应对任务重。在人口老龄化问题 突出的基础上，我国的养老金融在两个层次上存在结构性挑战。 整体来看，来源结构上政府财政承压较大。我国养老金中政府主导的基本养老金和社保基金占比超过2/3，企业年金 和个人缴存的商业养老保险加起来仅占32.7%。根据万得（Wind）数据，2010年至2022年12年间，国家财政补贴基 本养老保险的绝对金额增加了4.5倍（1911.33亿元增长至10589.76亿元），补贴占财政收入比例增加了1.26倍（2.3% 增长至5.2%），养老金融体系中依靠政府支出的部分日益升高，体现了 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, risk appetite has rebounded, but in the long - term, the bond market is still bullish. Although the recent trend of treasury bonds is relatively weak, the logic of activities like "transfer trade" is not sustainable. The long - term fundamental situation remains unchanged. Once risk appetite starts to decline and there are incremental positive factors, the bond market will strengthen non - linearly. Therefore, it is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [2][14][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From July 7th to July 13th, treasury bond futures oscillated and adjusted. On Monday, with a calm market news and slightly tightened funding, treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly, and the 30Y interest rate rose slightly due to the news of ultra - long special treasury bond issuance. On Tuesday, as trade conflict intensity was within market expectations, rising certificate of deposit (CD) rates and a strong stock market led to an oscillating decline in treasury bond futures. On Wednesday, the stock market weakened while long - term treasury bond futures strengthened, and the short - term ones were relatively weak with a flattening yield curve. On Thursday, the market sentiment improved marginally in the morning but then the stock market soared, causing the bond market to weaken. In the afternoon, the expectation of real - estate stabilizing policies led to a plunge in treasury bond futures. On Friday, with balanced funding, the bond market fluctuated with the stock market. As of July 11th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.412, 105.975, 108.815, and 120.510 yuan respectively, down 0.096, 0.275, 0.295, and 0.690 yuan from last weekend [1][12] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - The market is still difficult to strengthen next week. With the arrival of the tax period, the funding will marginally tighten, and the expected strong economic data in June and high risk appetite will suppress the bond market. However, in the long - run, it is advisable to lay out medium - term long positions on dips. Strategies include holding long positions, paying attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in treasury bond futures, and stopping profit on the strategy of steepening the yield curve first and then looking for new opportunities [2][14][15][16] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 70 interest - rate bonds were issued with a total issuance of 69 billion yuan and a net financing of 46.2369 billion yuan, up 17.6781 billion and 8.579 billion yuan respectively from last week. 45 local government bonds were issued with a total issuance of 23.179 billion yuan and a net financing of 11.0229 billion yuan, up 15.9651 billion and 8.858 billion yuan respectively. 454 CDs were issued with a total issuance of 42.713 billion yuan and a net financing of - 8.339 billion yuan, up 18.416 billion and down 8.057 billion yuan respectively [20] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields rose. As of July 11th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.53%, 1.66%, and 1.87% respectively, up 4.28, 3.41, 2.05, and 1.95 basis points from last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.50%, 1.61%, and 1.71% respectively, up 5.03, 4.51, and 3.13 basis points from last weekend [30] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures oscillated and adjusted. As of July 11th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.412, 105.975, 108.815, and 120.510 yuan respectively, down 0.096, 0.275, 0.295, and 0.690 yuan from last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 38,238, 66,066, 72,274, and 98,226 lots respectively, up 7,022, 7,450, 1,993, and 16,442 lots from last weekend. The open interests were 124,636, 202,629, 244,640, and 150,356 lots respectively, with changes of - 673, + 9,156, + 4,737, and + 6,317 lots from last weekend [38][43] 3.3.2 Basis and Implied Repo Rate (IRR) - Positive arbitrage opportunities were not obvious this week. With balanced and loose funding, the basis of futures oscillated narrowly. The IRR of the cheapest - to - deliver (CTD) bonds of each main contract was around 1.8%, and the current CD rate was slightly higher than 1.6%, resulting in relatively few positive arbitrage opportunities [48] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of July 11th, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures between the 2509 and 2512 contracts were - 0.100, - 0.105, - 0.040, and + 0.180 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.024, - 0.020, + 0.045, and + 0.050 yuan from last weekend. The far - term contracts adjusted more this week [53] 3.4 Weekly Observation of Funding - The central bank net - withdrew 22.65 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations this week. As of July 11th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.51%, 1.47%, 1.33%, and 1.48% respectively, up 0.86, 0.58, 2.80, and 5.20 basis points from last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8.21 trillion yuan, up 0.61 trillion yuan from last week, and the overnight proportion was 89.57%, slightly lower than last week [57][60][63] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose slightly. As of July 11th, the US dollar index rose 0.91% to 97.8731 from last weekend, the 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.43%, up 8 basis points from last weekend, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 276.7 basis points [67] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices rose this week. As of July 11th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3,612.73, 6,281.86, and 1,679.68 points respectively, up 55.22, 65.52, and 29.21 points from last weekend. Agricultural product prices also rose, with the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits at 20.60, 4.42, and 7.45 yuan/kg respectively, up 0.02, 0.08, and 0.15 yuan/kg from last weekend [70] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [71]

广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 风险溢价，中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率，权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比，历史数次极端底部该数据均处在均值上两倍标准差区 域，比如2012/2018/2020年（疫情突发），2022/04/26达到4.17%，2022/10/28风险溢价再次上升到4.08%，市场迅速反弹，2024/01/19指标4.11%，自2016年 以来第五次超过4%。截至2025/07/11指标3.57%，两倍标准差边界为4.76%。 估值水平，截至2025/07/11，中证全指PETTM分位数63%，上证50与沪深300分别为68%、61%，创业板指接近21%，中证500与中证1000分别为42%、 31%，创业板指风格估值相对历史总体处于相对较低水平。 长周期看深100指数技术面，深100技术面每隔3年一轮熊市，之后是牛市，比如2012/2015/2018/2021 ...

美国加速推进新一轮贸易壁垒，给弱势经济体带来沉重打击。非洲的莱索托，正面临严重经济困境，特别是纺织业受到了重大冲 击。美国关税重压超出了贸易范畴，已经上升到了国家紧急情况。莱索托的经济平衡岌岌可危，成千上万的就业机会受到威胁，如今 失业率已超过30%。估计这一状态将持续两年。非洲其他国家也开始寻求新出路，减少对美国的依赖。 卡塔尔半岛电视台：经济豪赌引发质疑 特朗普打着"美国重建铜业霸主地位"的旗号，宣布自8月起对进口铜征收50%关税。白宫辩称此举旨在纠正不公平贸易行为，推 动美国关键产业自主化，确保电网、军事装备等所需的重要原材料安全。该税率远超预期，引发全球供应链危机和威胁美国本土生产 体系的质疑。专家指出，制造业将首当其冲，成本压力沿产业链持续传导，消费端通胀风险加剧。 央视网消息：美国向多国发出关税信函，加剧市场不确定性。以威胁谋求让步的方式给全球贸易带来哪些冲击？各国如何捍卫底 线？来看相关报道。 美国《纽约时报》：关税已成施压工具 美国总统把关税看作"可以轻松部署的工具"，重新平衡美国经济的同时，"为美国带来大量资金"，并"迅速重置贸易关系"。美国 试图全程掌握节奏，让谈判对手措手不及，甚至将其逼 ...

来源：杨易君黄金与金融投资 今年最强贵金属不是金银 黄金美元技术与基本面矛盾 2025年07月13日 威尔鑫投资咨询研究中心 （文） 首席分析师 杨易君 来源：杨易君黄金与金融投资 1 一周市场小结 上周国际现货金价3334.45美元开盘，最高上试3368.57美元，最低下探3282.62美元，报收3355.09美元， 上涨20.09美元，涨幅0.60%，振幅2.58%，周K线呈先抑后扬，震荡上行小阳线。 上周美元指数以96.97点开盘，最高上试97.96点，最低下探96.88点，报收97.85点，上涨870点，涨幅 0.90%，振幅1.12%，周K线呈震荡反弹小阳线。 上周wellxin贵金指数（金银钯铂）以6869.55点开盘，最高上试7062.24点，最低下探6695.16点，报收 7036.32点，上涨169.48点，涨幅2.48%，振幅5.35%，周K线呈先抑后扬，再创历史新高的中阳线。 上周： 现货银价上涨3.97%，振幅6.46%，报收38.38美元； 现货铂金价格上涨0.60%，振幅4.99%，报收1399.35美元； 伦镍下跌0.16%，振幅2.65%，报收15235.00美元； 伦锡下跌0 ...

最近，小师姐正沉迷在这本 《私募股权投资手册》 中不可自拔，因为这本阅读材料真的太实用、太划算 了！ 《私募股权投资手册》约有11万字，划分为五大章节，前半部分内容从尽职调查拓展到股权投资风险防控， 后半部分内容从投资协议延伸到对赌与回购事项。 《私募股权投资手册》目录大纲 《私募股权投资手册》 11万字，5大章节 扫码查看详情 第一章简要介绍了股权投资尽职调查的主要流程与方法，着重讲解了业务尽调"四核"、财务尽调"五定"、法 律尽调"六维"等内容。 例如业务尽调的"四核"就具体分为业务和产品、标的公司细分行业、研发实力情况、核心竞争力这四个层 面，每个层面都有不同的侧重点。 为了方便我们将理论与实践结合，书中还例举了浑水公司做尽调的"七板斧"：查阅资料、查关联方、实地调 研、调查供应商……等等，虽然都是一些常规的尽调方法，但如何把简单的工作在实践中做到极其细致，也 是非常不容易的。 第二章重点从风控角度，梳理了股权投资的三类常见业务风险、四类常见财务风险、十类常见法律风险，以 及估值风险与风险缓释。 虽然第二章的内容更为复杂，但小师姐却非常喜欢，因为通篇都是案例，没有什么比用实践说话更有信服力 的了。例如关 ...

Group 1 - The European Parliament passed a resolution on July 10, demanding China to lift its export controls on rare earths, reflecting the EU's strong demand for these resources [1] - China's response emphasized that rare earths are dual-use materials and that its export controls are in line with international law, aimed at ensuring global security and stability [1][3] - The EU's stance appears contradictory as it criticizes China's controls while simultaneously working to strengthen its own rare earth industry and reduce reliance on external sources [3][4] Group 2 - The EU's recent diplomatic dynamics indicate a wavering policy towards China, focusing on maintaining a balanced economic relationship while reducing dependency on Chinese resources [4][6] - New proposals from the EU aim to enhance control over critical materials and prevent supply chains from being "weaponized," indicating a strategic shift in policy [4][6] - Ongoing trade negotiations between the EU and the US are accelerating, with potential agreements that may ease tariffs and reflect a shift towards closer alignment with US interests [6][8]

以下文章来源于妙投APP ，作者董必政 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 董必政 头图 | AI制图 最近，湖南等地40多家银行密集上线了一款新型金融产品——"养老贷"。 这个新词一经出现，便登上热搜。有人说它是雪中送炭，也有人担忧其风险。看完这个"养老贷"的运 作模式，我们发现银行的风险仍有可能出现敞口，并非万无一失。 到底什么是"养老贷"？这种模式能跑起来吗？ 一、银行的风险 妙投APP . 虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌，为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解，热门赛道产业链梳理 本文播客版由豆包AI播客功能自动生成 现在的"养老贷"，本质上是银行为城乡居民补缴养老保险专门设计的一种贷款产品。 你年纪大了，发现自己社保缴费年限或档次不够，想多领点养老金，但手头一时拿不出那么多钱，银 行就站出来说："别愁，我借你，利率还挺低，直接把钱打进你的社保账户，帮你补齐差额。"等你退 休，每月养老金自动扣还贷款，剩下的归你花。 据相关银行测算，以贷款金额90000元、年利率3.1%、期限15年为例，60岁办理退休后，每月可领取 养老金808.48元。在偿还每月625.86元的本息后，客户每月仍可剩余182.62元用于自由支配，相 ...

本报讯（记者郭静原）近日，国家疾病预防控制局和中国气象局联合发布首个国家级高温健康风险预 警，探索建立以气候变化健康早期预警为先导的适应联动机制。这一预警因何设立、如何运作，又将如 何守护公众健康？ 这一跨越离不开持续政策推动与长期技术攻关。疾控部门与气象部门基于全国近10年2400个气象站点的 历史观测数据，构建了全国5公里分辨率的格点化分级阈值，联合研发出高温健康气象风险智能网格预 警产品及高温健康影响预报客观化产品。自2024年5月起，中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品 安全所与公共气象服务中心组建专业联合技术攻关团队，全面推动技术融合，实现了健康气象风险预警 向定量化、精准化转变。 未来，气象部门将依托"天和"系统制作预警信息，通过国家预警发布系统、12379平台及新媒体等多渠 道精准触达应急责任人与公众，持续筑牢应对高温的全民健康屏障。 （文章来源：经济日报） "高温预警是单纯的气象预警，而高温健康风险预警体现了'气象+健康'的深度融合。"中国疾控中心环 境所副所长李湉湉介绍，该预警通过模型比较分析预报日的平均气温和最高气温与各风险等级对应的指 标阈值来判定预报日的高温健康风险等级。 中国疾控中 ...