分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 软件半导体领涨 A 股震荡上行 ——市场分析 相关报告 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 06 月 23 日 11787 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周一（06 月 23 日）A 股市场低开高走、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指低 开后震荡回落，盘中沪指在 3348 点附近获得支撑，随后股指震荡上 行，盘中银行、软件开发、半导体以及能源金属等行业表现较好； 酿酒、航空机场、工程机械以及电力等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基 本呈现小幅震荡上行的运行特征。创业板市场周一震荡上扬，创业 板成分指数全天表现弱于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 周一 A 股市场低开高走、小幅震荡上扬，早盘股指低开后震荡回 落，盘中沪指在 3348 点附近获得支撑，随后股指震荡上行，盘中银 行、软件开发、半导体以及能源金属等行业表现较好；酿酒、航空 机场、工程机械以及电力等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅 震荡上行的运行特征。当前上证综指与创业板指数的平均市盈率 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market showed resilience despite external negative factors, with a notable rebound after a half-month decline [1] - The market opened lower but gradually rose throughout the day, supported by various sectors, although blue-chip stocks did not participate in the rally [1] Volume and Technical Indicators - The trading volume increased by 60 billion compared to the previous Friday, but this was insufficient to support a broad-based rally among 4,400 stocks [1] - The market's rebound did not surpass the 5-day moving average, indicating a lack of strength and uncertainty about stabilization at this level [1] Market Sentiment and Strategy - The recent price action has been characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish signals, with upward movements occurring amidst a series of downward trends [2] - The presence of bullish candles within a downtrend can mislead investors, leading to potential losses if the market reverses again [2] - A cautious approach is advised, with a focus on waiting for stronger volume and confirmation of upward momentum before entering the market [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market demonstrated strong internal resilience with a low opening and high closing amid escalating overseas geopolitical conflicts [1] - The trading volume of the CSI A500 ETF (563360) reached 812 million yuan, a nearly 150% increase compared to the previous trading day's 325 million yuan [1] - CITIC Securities indicated that core assets have a significant relative profitability advantage and strong operational resilience, with a profit inflection point appearing ahead of the overall A-share market [1] Group 2 - The CSI A500 Index, tracked by the CSI A500 ETF (563360), consists of 500 leading stocks in the A-share market, with the top five sectors being electronics, banking, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage [1] - The management fee and custody fee for the CSI A500 ETF (563360) are 0.15% and 0.05% per year, respectively, which are among the lowest in the market for stock ETFs [1] - Huatai-PB Fund, the manager of the CSI A500 ETF (563360), is one of the first ETF managers in China with over 18 years of experience, managing the largest ETF in the A-share market, the CSI 300 ETF (510300) [1]

2025 年 06 月 23 日 一周市场回顾 证券研究报告-一周市场回顾 分析师：马遥识途 资格证书：S1330524050001 联系邮箱：mayst@hxzb.cn 联系电话：15201282186 相关研究 一周市场回顾 （ 2025.06.09 — 2025.06.13） 2025.06.16 一周市场回顾 （ 2025.06.03 — 2025.06.06） 2025.06.09 融资融券： 市 场 研 究 · 一 周 市 场 回 顾 · 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 1 / 7 一周市场回顾 （2025.06.16—2025.06.20） 一周市场回顾 （ 2025.05.26 — 2025.05.30） 2025.06.03 本周 A 股上证指数下跌 0.51%，收于 3359.90 点，深证成指下跌 1.16%，收于 10005.03 点，创业板指下跌 1.66%，收于 2009.89 点。 价值风格类板块代表指数上证 50、中证 100、沪深 300 分别下跌 0.10%、下跌 0.68%、下跌 0.45%，成长风格类板块代表指数中小 100、中证 500、中证 1 ...

发布时间：2025-06-23 大盘指数 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 2000 3000 4000 上证指数 深证成指 1000 2000 3000 5000 6000 7000 8000 中小100 创业板指 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《震荡仍是主旋律，等待内部政策窗口 期》 - 2025.06.16 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 策略观点 短期地缘冲突逆风延续，A 股面临压力 ⚫ 投资要点 本周 A 股受外围地缘政治冲突影响表现不佳。本周主要股指全数 下跌，其中高股息大市值个股占比高的上证 50 微跌 0.10%表现最佳， 其余权重指数跌幅亦较小，科创 50、创业板指、中证 1000 和中证 500 跌幅较大。行业层面，外围地缘冲突影响下市场风偏趋于谨慎。本周 申万一级行业中仅有银行、通信和电子有正收益，在伊以冲突延续并 有烈度增强迹象的背景下，A 股在下半周避险情绪显著升温，快速切 向以银行为代表的高股息板块进行防御。 A 股个人投资者情绪指数再跌入 ...

半 n 市 场 与 周一还将有1000亿元国库现金定存到期。央行行长潘功胜表示,过去 年,央行坚持稳健的货币政策立场,从量价结构等多维度实施多项举 措,有效支持经济持续回升向好,维护金融市场稳定。同时,央行着力 完善货币政策框架:优化中间变量、培育政策利率、提升传导效率、丰富 政策工具箱并加强沟通与预期引导。货币政策框架转型是一个渐进持续 的过程,未来将持续评估并完善。 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | | | 动(%) | | 沪深300 | 3847 | 0.09 | IF当月 | 3804 | 0.2 | | 上证50 | 2674 | 0.31 | IH当月 | 2637 | 0.6 | | 中证500 | 5640 | -0.66 | IC当月 | 5588 | -0.5 | | 中证1000 | 6000 | -0.80 | IM当月 | રેત્રેર | -0.6 | | IF成交量 | 93277 | -20.6 | IF持仓量 | 213382 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Market Analysis - The real estate market in China has experienced a significant bubble, with property prices in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen reaching a price-to-income ratio of 40 times, indicating potential for further price declines [1][3] - A notable case is highlighted where a property purchased for 4 million yuan in 2022 has seen its value drop to 2.65 million yuan, reflecting a price decline of over 30% within two years [1] - The underlying reasons for the real estate bubble's burst include excessive debt leverage among residents, a supply-demand imbalance with supply exceeding demand, and a collapse in market confidence since 2022 [3][5] Group 2: A-Share Market Challenges - The A-share market has seen limited success in wealth generation, with most investors facing losses, as evidenced by an average loss of 54,000 yuan per person in 2023 [1][5] - Key issues in the A-share market include a lack of investment value due to many companies not providing cash dividends, leading to a speculative environment where investors rely on short-term price fluctuations [5] - High initial public offering (IPO) prices, typically above 30-40 times price-to-earnings ratio, have drained future growth potential, resulting in many new stocks experiencing significant declines post-IPO [5]

恒生科技指数转涨，恒指接近转涨，此前均跌超1%。华虹半导体涨超6%，中芯国际涨超5%。 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of June 22, 2025, 14 A-share listed companies have released their mid-year profit forecasts, indicating a mixed performance with 9 companies expecting profit increases and 5 anticipating declines [1][3]. Group 1: Profit Forecasts - Saint Nor Biotechnology expects a net profit of 77.03 million to 94.14 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 253.54% to 332.10%, driven by strong performance in its peptide raw material business [2][3]. - Luxshare Precision anticipates a net profit of 6.475 billion to 6.745 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 20% to 25%, despite challenges from global trade dynamics [3]. - 13 out of the 14 companies forecast profits, while only one company, Ningbo Huaxiang, expects a loss [3][4]. Group 2: Loss Forecasts - Ningbo Huaxiang predicts a loss of 273.9 million to 369.9 million yuan, a decline of 151.09% to 169.12%, primarily due to a one-time impact from the divestment of its European business [4]. - Zhongce Rubber expects a net profit of 1.91 billion to 2.2 billion yuan, with a decrease of 13.38% to 24.79%, attributed to rising raw material costs and external sales challenges [4]. Group 3: Revenue Growth - Ying Shi Innovation, a newly listed company, forecasts a revenue growth of 32.38% to 57.1%, with a net profit increase of -4.65% to 12.49% [4].

A 股短期还会继续调整吗？20250622 摘要 A 股市场短期内面临基本面压力，5 月出口增速超预期回落，叠加政策 落地速度可能放缓，预计 7 月中下旬基本面压力或缓解。 A 股中报业绩存在结构性压力，部分前期盈利预期较高的新消费板块和 概念股可能面临估值下调风险。 海外地缘政治风险持续，伊核冲突等地缘风险对市场情绪构成压制，增 加了市场的不确定性。 陆家嘴论坛推出系列政策，央行和证监会分别在外汇、人民币汇率、数 字人民币、科创板等方面出台措施，对市场情绪有一定提振作用。 当前宏观环境特征为出口回落和经济弱修复，历史上类似阶段 A 股表现 偏弱，需警惕美元反弹及地缘政治对流动性的影响。 科创板和创业板放宽上市标准，有利于科技创新型企业进入资本市场， 但短期内对改变市场偏弱局面的效果有限。 短期行业配置建议均衡策略，关注科技（人工智能、机器人）和涨价品 种（有色金属、化工），以及低估值蓝筹（银行、建筑、交通运输、电 力）等防守型板块。 当前 A 股市场表现相对走弱，尤其是后半段，这符合预期。预计短期内仍将延 续震荡调整走势，主要由于导致调整的一些因素尚未完全消减。要结束调整， 需要更多积极的基本面和政策因素出 ...