Global Macro Research July 21st, 2025 Global Macro Outlook and Strategy Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets Luis Oganes AC (44-20) 7742-1420 luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. {[{xTcfaSlj-ZSQMv-ljRpIM1aFmqNl6BwND7qytf5P1HSyCs_2qviWgA}]} Overall summary US Rates We continue to find value at the front-end, as 1Y1Y OIS rates appear high on a medium-term basis after controlling for ...

国内商品期货收盘 碳酸锂、焦煤、硅铁、锰硅主力合约涨停 智通财经7月25日电，国内商品期货收盘，黑色系领涨。碳酸锂、焦煤、硅铁、锰硅主力合约涨停，玻 璃涨超8%，纯碱涨超5%，PVC涨超3%，焦炭、纯苯等涨逾2%，液化气、原油等涨超1%，生猪、苹果 等小幅上涨；集运欧线、多晶硅跌超2%，菜粕、烧碱等跌逾1%，豆粕、豆二等小幅下跌。 ...

7月22日，以"凝心聚力 攻坚破局 共创共赢"为主题的东风商用车新疆有限公司2025年经销商 年中工作会在十堰召开。 东风商用车有限公司副总经理、东风新疆董事长黄政，东风新疆总经理沈彬、党委书记高超、 纪委书记崔振华、副总经理胡晓红及来自全国的经销商伙伴、东风新疆高管及营销研发等相关 部门负责人参加会议。东风新疆副总经理戴文海主持会议。 2025年，是"十四五"收官之年、"十五五"谋划之年,也是贯彻落实公司第十次党代会精神的开 局之年。上半年，东风新疆与广大经销商、服务商合作伙伴，携手共进、顶压前行，凝心聚 力、攻坚破局，实现批发销量10900辆，同比增长20.6%；终端销量11018辆，同比增长 61%。实现了国内、海外销量及份额的同比双提升，跑赢大市。尤其是牵引、工程、自卸和专 用车在细分市场全面取得了重点突破。 黄政表示：上半年，在行业严重内卷，价格战不断加剧的竞争态势下，东风新疆始终坚持以客 户为中心的经营理念，持续提升区域细分市场和海外市场的企划能力与产品竞争力，与经销商 一道取得了较好成绩。 下半年，东风新疆要继续与经销商伙伴携手同行，直面挑战，秉承诚信、共赢的合作理念，以 跑赢大市为目标，不断推 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 投资咨询号: 2025/7/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | Z0017251 | | | | | | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/7/23 | 2025/7/24 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4810 | 4815 | 5.00 | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4501 | 4530 | 29.00 | 短纤:涤纶短纤涨44至6520。现货市场:涤纶 | | | | | | 短纤生产企业价格报盘稳定,午后期货价格上扬 | | PTA收盘价 | 4784 | 4850 | 66. 00 | 提振日内产销小幅回暖。受原料和期货上涨带动 | | MEG收盘价 | 4436 | 4485 | 49. 00 | 涤纶短纤午后市场商谈低端价格减少,商谈重心 | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6650 | 6650 | 0. 00 | 小幅攀升,但成交有所转 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面震荡上涨，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3294 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 上涨 20 元/吨，涨幅 0.61%，持仓减少 1.63 万手。现货价格小幅上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价 | 震荡偏强 | | | 格上涨 10 元/吨至 3130 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 20 元/吨至 3370 元/吨，全国建材成交量 11.15 | | | | 万吨。据我的钢铁数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回升 2.9 万吨至 211.96 万吨，同比减少 4.73 万吨；社库环 | | | | 比回升 2.81 万吨至 372.97 万吨，同比减少 193.62 万吨；厂库环比回落 7.43 万吨至 165.67 万吨，同比减少 | | | | 27.98 万吨；螺纹表需回升 10.41 万吨至 216.58 万吨，同比增加 10.41 万吨。螺纹产量小幅回升，库存再次 | | | | 转降，表需回升，数据表现偏强。淡季 ...

#李佳琦承诺赔付铂爵旅拍订单#的词条也冲上微博热搜榜，最高位置达到第2位，在榜时间超 13小时，阅读量近9200万。李佳琦负责任的举动也引发大量网友点赞。 【导读】铂爵旅拍被曝"跑路"，李佳琦承诺退款赔付 中国基金报 综合中新经纬、九派新闻、潇湘晨报等 近期，头部旅拍品牌"铂爵旅拍"被曝"失联跑路、拖欠消费者费用"，引起关注。 对此，7月24日，头部带货主播李佳琦在直播中表示，最近看到不少关于铂爵旅拍履约难的问 题，对在直播间购买了铂爵旅拍产品但还没有完成拍摄的用户深表歉意，这种状况确实始料 未及。 李佳琦在直播间宣布三种赔付方案：对于已核销未拍摄的用户，李佳琦直播间将先行赔付退 款；对于已核销已拍摄但未取得底片的用户，直播间将发放一定金额的现金补偿，并协助用 户拿到底片；对于未核销的用户，建议用户尽快联系平台退款，直播间客服也将提供售后沟 通协助支持。 天眼查信息显示，铂爵旅拍关联公司铂爵旅拍文化集团有限公司成立于2014年12月，风险信 息显示，该公司现存多条股权冻结信息，被执行人包括许春盛、厦门铂金鼎丰股权投资管理 合伙企业（有限合伙）等。 | -- 吖：李佳琦快人一步退款,为铂爵旅拍用户提供保障,责任 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company faces a significant risk of losing control over its subsidiary Zinitix due to alleged misconduct by current board members, which could lead to substantial financial impacts in 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Causes of Control Loss - The control loss incident is fundamentally an internal governance crisis following a cross-border acquisition, with allegations against three board members for misconduct [2]. - The current board members are obstructing the convening of an extraordinary shareholders' meeting to elect new directors, citing legal loopholes to delay the process [2]. Group 2: Financial Impact - Zinitix's revenue contribution is projected to rise from 15.57% in 2024 to 27.06% in Q1 2025, making it a core growth driver for the company [3]. - Losing control over Zinitix would result in a revenue gap of nearly 30%, exacerbating the company's existing losses, which are estimated at 291 million yuan for 2024 and 27.26 million yuan for Q1 2025 [3]. Group 3: Governance Deficiencies - The incident highlights the failure of the company's localization strategy, which relied on financial reporting and audit supervision without establishing a robust governance structure [4]. - The geopolitical context of technology sovereignty is also a concern, as South Korea has expanded its protection of core technologies, complicating the company's operations [4]. Group 4: Response Strategies - The company has initiated civil and criminal lawsuits in the U.S. and South Korea against the involved board members and is seeking to reconvene the shareholders' meeting [5]. - Mobilizing support from minority shareholders is crucial, as the U.S. subsidiary holds 35.31% of shares, and combined with minority shareholders, it approaches 50% of voting rights [5]. Group 5: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the company's stock price dropped over 7%, resulting in a market value loss of more than 400 million yuan, reflecting investor concerns about revenue disruption, goodwill impairment, and management capabilities [6]. - The previous valuation premium based on acquisition growth has diminished, necessitating progress in core business areas like automotive-grade chips and AI power chips to rebuild market confidence [6]. Group 6: Lessons Learned - The crisis underscores the vulnerabilities in cross-border acquisitions, particularly regarding technology sovereignty sensitivity and weak legal safeguards [8]. - Companies must establish a comprehensive framework for technology compliance, governance structures with strong constraints, and localized crisis management capabilities to avoid performance pitfalls during expansion [8].

为深入挖掘赣商文化核心与现代企业管理创新的融合路径，为赣商文化的创造性转化、创新性发展及企业现代化管理提供实践借鉴，7月初，江西财经大 学"知行赣商"暑期重点实践队在江西省赣州市会昌县和君小镇开展系列企业家访谈。 和君小镇：以教育为基，探索特色小镇的"三赢"模式 实践队领队老师、工商管理学院党委书记贺三宝带领团队，先后对话和君小镇开发有限公司董事长王秋麟以及杨华、詹慧珍、姜江三位女企业家，从不同维 度解码赣商精神的时代内涵与实践路径。 和君集团由董事长王明夫2000年于北京创立，现已发展成亚洲最大规模咨询机构之一，形成咨询、资本、商学培训三大板块。2018年，王明夫响应"建设革 命老区""赣商返赣创业"号召，回到家乡赣州市会昌县，计划总投资50多亿元打造和君小镇——这座以教育为核心，融合健康、会议、体育、文旅、安居、 创业与产业等主题的特色小镇，旨在通过产教融合助力家乡发展，走出一条"教育带动、人才聚集、宜居宜业、产业兴旺"的特色路径。和君小镇开发有限公 司作为小镇的建设与运营方，正持续推动这一愿景落地。 新余市妇联兼职副主席詹慧珍自1985年创办企业以来，将华丽中专学校升格为赣西科技职业学院，安置8万多名技 ...

Group 1 - The aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) has shown a significant increase of 12.52% over the past month, leading its peers [1] - As of July 24, the latest share count for the aerospace ETF Tianhong is 350 million shares, with a circulating scale of 406 million yuan, marking a new high since its listing [1] - The aerospace ETF closely tracks the Guozheng Aerospace Index, which has over 98% weight in the defense and military industry, focusing on key areas such as large aircraft manufacturing and commercial aerospace [1] Group 2 - Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area is becoming a major hub for commercial aerospace, with over 75% of domestic commercial rocket companies located there [2] - The area plans to achieve over 40 rocket launches and more than 130 satellites in orbit by 2025, supported by a complete "star-ground integration" industrial chain [2] - The commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy sectors are expected to show strong growth, with investors encouraged to focus on leading companies in these fields [2] Group 3 - The investment opportunity in commercial aerospace is emphasized, particularly with the maturation of private large-capacity liquid rockets and advancements in reusable technology [3] - The opening of low-orbit satellite internet projects to private rockets is anticipated to significantly reduce launch costs and accelerate satellite internet development [3] - Companies involved in rocket structure components, liquid rocket engine components, and 3D printing services for rockets are recommended for attention [3]

智通财经APP获悉，香港投资推广署署长刘凯旋表示，今年以来，香港股市及新股集资表现非常亮丽， 即使世界其他地方例如中东、欧洲及泰柬边境发生冲突，导致贸易不稳定，但无碍香港不影贸易发展， 亦不影响署方在东盟主要商业城市招商引资。 她指，香港投资推广署去年开始向招揽的企业介绍北部都会区发展，不少来港的企业都需要较大面积的 地皮及创科用地，已有超过10家企业，经署方表达在北都发展的意向，主要涉及创科、物流、旅游等行 业，希望快些有产业进驻。 她指，香港最大优势是金融发展及融资生态圈，除家族办、私募基金及传统企业外，投资者亦见到香港 致力发展创科，成熟的募集资金环境，可结合创科与金融发展。越来越多投资者明白不可只靠与美国做 贸易，需要寻找更多贸易伙伴，香港可以为国家发挥招商引资双向作用，提升外企对香港认知程度，加 深东盟、中东、北非、东欧等各地投资，多了解及利好香港这个平台。 刘凯旋提到，过去两年半有约1300间公司在香港设立或扩展业务，首年带来1684亿港元投资额，创造近 2万个职位。香港投资推广署目标是为香港带来经济效益，以及更多不同种类的行业及企业。 黄金仓储方面，她指，署方协助核准仓库营运商与香港本地仓储公司 ...