策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.06.23） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 中期观点：区间震荡，沪深 300 指数运行区间[3800,3950] 参考策略：卖出 MO2507-P-5800 虚值看跌期权、IM2507 逢低试多 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：窄幅震荡，IC、IM 反弹概率上升 核心逻辑： 1.短期海外扰动明显增加，构成压制风险偏好的因素。中东地缘政治冲突，美 国介入，局势不确定性依然较高，压制全球风险偏好，情绪上继续扰动 A 股市场。 2.内需预期提振有待政策进一步加力。基本面来看，5 月社零增速表现亮眼， 但需关注持续性问题；生产延续相对韧性，其中高技术制造及装备制造业相对优势 依旧。投资端，在地产投资拖累下固投增速边际走弱，结合金融数据以及通胀数据， 政策发力预期不断强化。 3.市场继续处于风格高低频繁切换格局，大盘与小盘轮番占优，缺乏持续上涨 的主线机会，建议关注"板块大涨后兑现离场、板块调整后布局进场"的逆向操作 思路。技术图形看，四大指数已回调至本轮箱体下沿，反弹概率上升。 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点：短债窄幅波动，长债延续偏强势头 请务必阅读文末免 ...

| | | | 甲醇日评20250623: 中东局势再升级,甲醇有望继续走强 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | MA01 | 单位 元/吨 | 2025/6/20 2511.00 | 2025/6/19 2515.00 | 变化值 (矩对值) -4.00 | 変化值 (相对值) -0.16% | | | 甲醇期货价格 (收盘价) | MA05 MA09 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 2423.00 2529.00 | 2413.00 2543.00 | 10.00 -14.00 | 0.41% -0.55% | | | | 太色 | 元/吨 | 2745.00 | 2762.50 | -17.50 | -0.63% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2315.00 | 2310.00 | 5.00 | 0.22% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2635.00 | 2640.00 | -5.00 | -0.19% | | 及基差 | 甲醇现货价格 (日度均价) | 陕西 | 元/吨 | 212 ...

最近中国股市出现调整的主要原因是什么？ 最近中国股市的调整表面上看是由于海外地缘政治冲突的升温，但实际上更合 理的解释是前期以创新药、新消费为代表的主题交易已经相对拥挤，市场借此 利空释放压力，优化交易结构。虽然伊核冲突因美国介入进一步升温，可能导 致全球风险释放，但这并不构成 A 股核心矛盾。如果因此出现明显下跌，建议 积极布局，因为全年 A 股市场投资机会依然看好。 对于未来美元走势及其影响有何看法？ 未来美元趋势性走弱将持续，这对全球资本流动和资产定价有重要影响。特朗 普上台后美元已显著走弱，最低跌至近三年低位。逻辑上，美国缩减贸易逆差 将冲击美债需求，加之财政空间有限，下半年可能转向财政扩张政策。美联储 降息大概率发生，美外利差收窄也利于美元走弱。历史上美元走弱期间，大宗 周期论剑｜冲突与波动，再议周期 20250622 摘要 美元趋势性走弱持续，受益于此，大宗商品和非美权益资产表现将优于 美股，中国资产尤其是港股将受益于港币联系汇率制度带来的流动性利 好。 下半年中国经济需求边际走弱，但风险整体可控。稳定资本市场政策支 持下，防御、稳健红利类方向及中报业绩占优方向韧性较强，周期板块 如制冷剂、农化、 ...

Group 1 - The Egyptian government is taking measures to ensure the availability of commodity reserves in response to escalating regional tensions [1]

Core Insights - China's export growth is primarily driven by electromechanical and high-tech products, with significant increases in electronic components and technology [1][2] - Mobile phone exports showed a slight decline in early 2022 but are expected to remain at a high level through 2025, while passenger car exports are projected to reach record highs in 2025 [1][2] - The export of lithium batteries has been strong, with a notable increase from $15.9 billion in 2020 to $64.9 billion in 2023, although growth is expected to slow in 2024 [4][12] - Solar cell exports have fluctuated significantly, peaking at $92.8 billion in 2022 but declining to $87.6 billion in 2023, with further decreases anticipated in subsequent years [7][8] Export Performance by Product Category - **Electromechanical Products**: Exports increased from $73.6 billion in 2021 to $89.1 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 8% projected for 2025 [2] - **High-Tech Products**: Exports rose from $36.1 billion in 2021 to $35.0 billion in 2025, with a modest growth rate of 6% expected [2] - **Automobiles**: Exports surged from $34.5 billion in 2021 to $117.4 billion in 2024, maintaining a growth rate of 15% for 2024 [11][12] - **Lithium Batteries**: Exports increased from $15.9 billion in 2020 to $64.9 billion in 2023, with a forecast of $50 billion for 2024 [4] - **Solar Cells**: Exports peaked at $92.8 billion in 2022 but are projected to decline to $61.2 billion by 2024 [8] Automotive Sector Insights - **Passenger Cars**: The export value is expected to reach $117.4 billion in 2024, with a 15% annual growth rate [11] - **Automotive Parts**: Exports are projected to grow from $75.6 billion in 2023 to $93.5 billion in 2024, with a 6% growth rate [14] - The automotive sector shows strong vitality, with both complete vehicles and parts experiencing significant export growth [12]

国信期货研究所 供需平稳库存去化 螺纹区间震荡 ----国信期货螺纹钢周报 2025年6月22日 国信期货研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 2 期货市场环境：宏观、比价、基差 3 螺纹钢供需概况 4 后市展望 国信期货研究所 第 一部 P a rt 分 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 1.1 近期重要信息概览 国信期货研究所 经济数据 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1. 中国人民银行发布数据显示，截至2025年5月末，广义货币(M2)余额325.78万亿元，同比增长7.9%。狭义货币(M1)余额108.91万亿元，同比 增长2.3%。流通中货币(M0)余额13.13万亿元，同比增长12.1%。前五个月净投放现金3064亿元。2024年同期防资金空转的政策效应导致的低 基数使得5月M1增速明显回升。 2. 中国人民银行发布数据显示， 5月末，本外币贷款余额270.2万亿元，同比增长6.7%。前五个月人民币贷款增加10.68万亿元。分部门看，住 户贷款增加5724亿元，其中，短期贷款减少2624亿元，中长期贷款增加834 ...

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Core Insights - The monitoring report from June 16 to June 20, 2025, indicates that the supply of essential consumer goods in Hunan Province is sufficient, with overall market prices remaining stable [4][5]. Price Stability in Grains and Oils - The average prices for early indica rice, late indica rice, and japonica rice remain stable at 2.28 yuan, 2.63 yuan, and 2.85 yuan per 500 grams respectively [4]. - The prices of edible oils show minor fluctuations, with peanut oil and soybean oil experiencing slight declines, while rapeseed oil sees a slight increase [4]. Trends in Pork Prices - Prices for live pigs and piglets continue to decline, with average market prices at 14.52 yuan per kilogram and 25.44 yuan per 500 grams, reflecting decreases of 0.89% and 0.70% respectively [5]. - Fresh pork prices (lean meat) have seen a slight increase of 0.15%, reaching 13.59 yuan per 500 grams, but compared to the same period last year, live pig prices have dropped by 22.06% [5]. Fluctuations in Beef, Lamb, and Poultry Prices - The average market prices for fresh beef (boneless) and fresh lamb (bone-in) are 38.86 yuan and 32.57 yuan per 500 grams, showing increases of 0.18% and decreases of 0.28% respectively [6]. - Chicken and egg prices have slightly decreased, with chicken priced at 13.17 yuan and eggs at 6.18 yuan per 500 grams, reflecting changes of -0.08% and -0.32% respectively [6]. Vegetable and Fruit Price Trends - Among the monitored vegetables, only white radish prices increased by 2.58%, while cucumber, eggplant, tomato, and pumpkin prices generally fell, with eggplant experiencing the largest drop of 9.93% [7]. - In the fruit category, apple prices saw a minor increase of 0.15%, while banana and watermelon prices decreased by 1.28% and 8.51% respectively [7].

Economic Overview - The overall economy of the province has stabilized and shown progress, with key indicators such as consumer market, industrial production, and new productivity performing well, indicating a trend towards high-quality development [1] Consumer Market - The consumer market in the province continues to show a steady upward trend, with the total retail sales of social consumer goods in May increasing by 6.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points compared to April [1] - From January to May, the total retail sales of social consumer goods grew by 5.6% year-on-year, with a slight acceleration of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous four months [1] - The "old-for-new" policy has effectively stimulated consumption, with related goods in categories such as automobiles, home appliances, 3C digital products, and home goods achieving a total retail sales of 67.22 billion yuan in May, a year-on-year increase of 18.6% [2] - Green and smart products are experiencing rapid growth, with year-on-year increases in sales of new energy vehicles, smartphones, and energy-efficient appliances ranging from 28.8% to 147.0% [2] Industrial Production - The industrial economy of the province has maintained a relatively fast growth rate, with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by 6.2% year-on-year in May [2] - Among the 40 industrial categories, 30 reported year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 75% [2] - Key industries such as electronics, automobiles, and aerospace have shown significant growth rates of 13.5%, 11.6%, and 12.7% respectively [2] - High-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing have outpaced overall industrial growth, with increases of 9.8% and 9.7% year-on-year [3] Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment has maintained a rapid growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% from January to May, contributing 1.3 percentage points to overall investment growth [3] - Significant growth in infrastructure projects with planned total investments of 500 million yuan and above, with increases of 7.2% and 8.8% respectively [3] - Key sectors such as electricity and heat production, water transportation, and internet services have seen investment growth rates of 58.9%, 32.3%, and 49.4% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the role of "ferry drivers" in transporting Chinese-made vehicles to Central Asia, particularly through the Horgos port, emphasizing the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of this method compared to traditional transportation methods [17][18]. Group 1: Role of Ferry Drivers - "Ferry drivers" are specialized individuals who drive Chinese-made vehicles, such as the Li Auto L9, from Horgos to designated locations in Kazakhstan, completing delivery and acceptance procedures before returning to China by bus [17]. - There are currently nearly 4,000 ferry drivers operating at Horgos, indicating a growing workforce in this sector [17]. Group 2: Customs and Transportation Efficiency - The Horgos port has implemented a "self-driving export vehicle fast customs clearance model," reducing overall customs clearance time from over 30 hours to under 5 hours [18]. - The Horgos Customs has established dedicated channels for rapid customs clearance, enhancing the efficiency of vehicle exports and making the process more attractive to foreign automobile importers [18]. Group 3: Growth in Vehicle Exports - In 2024, Horgos is projected to export 421,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.6% [18]. - The article notes that the flexibility, efficiency, and lower costs associated with the ferry driver model contribute to the competitiveness of Chinese vehicles in international markets [17].