Group 1 - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has established a leadership group for general aviation and low-altitude economy development, focusing on key work arrangements and cross-departmental coordination [1] - The State Council Tariff Commission has decided to impose anti-dumping duties on imported brandy from the EU starting July 5, 2025, for a period of five years [5] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has conducted research in Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces, emphasizing the need to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks in the real estate market [6] Group 2 - The National Energy Administration reported that the national maximum electricity load reached 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, an increase of approximately 200 million kilowatts from the end of June and nearly 150 million kilowatts year-on-year, setting a historical high [8] - The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology announced that domestic smartphone shipments in May 2025 totaled 23.716 million units, a year-on-year decline of 21.8%, with 5G smartphones accounting for 89.3% of the total [9] - A total of 57 A-share listed companies have released performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with 13 companies expecting a net profit increase of over 100% year-on-year [10] Group 3 - Sanan Optoelectronics announced that its 400G optical chip products have achieved mass shipments, while 800G optical chip products have achieved small batch shipments [11] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's merger and acquisition review committee has approved China Shipbuilding's share swap merger with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, making it the largest publicly listed shipbuilding company globally with over 18% of the global market order backlog [15]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a mixed performance in 2025, with a decline in second-hand housing prices and a slight increase in new housing prices driven by demand for improved housing options [4][6][13]. Market Overview - The China Real Estate Index System has been tracking market changes since 1994, providing semi-annual summaries and forecasts to guide the industry [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities fell by 3.60%, while new home prices increased by 1.16% due to the release of demand for improved housing [4][13]. - Nationally, new residential sales area decreased by 2.9% year-on-year from January to May 2025, although the decline was less severe compared to the previous year [5][14]. Sales Performance - The top 100 real estate companies saw a sales revenue decline of 11.8% in the first half of 2025, indicating ongoing pressure on sales performance [5][31]. - The proportion of new homes sold in key cities remains stable, with a notable increase in the sales of larger units (120-144 square meters) [5][20]. Land Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the land transfer revenue for residential land in 300 cities increased by 27.5%, despite a 5.5% decrease in transaction area [4][28]. - The top 20 cities accounted for 68% of the national land transfer revenue, indicating a concentration of land market activity in major urban centers [4][28][29]. Policy and Future Outlook - Government policies are expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing the real estate market, with initiatives aimed at activating demand and optimizing supply [6][34]. - The forecast for total new residential sales in 2025 is approximately 900 million square meters, with market differentiation expected to become more pronounced [6][39]. - Companies are advised to focus on high-quality projects and adapt to new market conditions to ensure sustainable growth [7][42].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and calls for tailored policies to enhance effectiveness and maintain stability [1] - The Ministry's recent actions are expected to further support the stable, healthy, and high-quality development of the real estate market, following previous policy measures that have shown significant results [1] Group 2 - Sunac China plans to issue approximately 754 million new shares to raise funds for repaying around 5.6 billion yuan of domestic debt, which is expected to alleviate liquidity pressure and improve financial conditions [2] - This move may boost market confidence in debt restructuring among real estate companies and promote industry consolidation [2] Group 3 - Fantasia Holdings has extended the deadline for its restructuring support agreement to July 11, 2025, while actively negotiating with creditors and seeking project sales opportunities [3] - Successful negotiations could provide a model for other distressed real estate companies in debt restructuring, aiding in industry credit recovery [3] Group 4 - China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) Chengdu has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Beike Group to enhance collaboration in real estate investment, marketing services, and project development [4] - This partnership is expected to strengthen CCCC's competitive position in the Chengdu market and expand Beike's influence in urban renewal [4] Group 5 - Vanke Enterprise has successfully negotiated a one-year extension on two bank loans totaling approximately 447 million yuan, which will ease short-term repayment pressures and optimize cash flow [5][6] - This extension is likely to alleviate market concerns regarding liquidity risks in the real estate sector and support the recovery of the industry's credit system [6]

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June 2025 is at 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement but still within a downward trend [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.5%, showing continued expansion [1] - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggests increasing regulatory intensity to maintain ample liquidity and support key sectors [1] Manufacturing Sector - The production and new orders indices are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, reflecting a rise of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points [1] - The purchasing volume index increased to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points [1] - Price indices for major raw materials show a rebound, with purchasing and factory gate price indices at 48.4% and 46.2%, rising by 1.5 percentage points [1] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction business activity index is at 52.8%, up by 1.8 percentage points, indicating high activity in civil engineering [1] - The service sector business activity index is stable at 50.1%, with some industries experiencing high activity while others see a decline [1] - The business activity expectation index is in a high range, suggesting optimism among enterprises [1] Monetary Policy - The central bank announced a 300 billion MLF operation on June 25, with a net injection of 118 billion, marking four consecutive months of excess renewal [1] - The monetary policy is expected to expand domestic demand and stabilize growth in the second half of the year, with MLF likely to continue increasing [1] - The focus is on supporting private and small enterprises, revitalizing existing resources, and stabilizing the real estate market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing further differentiation in sales performance, with certain hot regions, particularly first-tier and some new first-tier cities, maintaining a level of transaction activity [1][4]. Sales Data Disclosure - Poly Developments reported a signed area of 1.5233 million square meters and a signed amount of 29.011 billion yuan in June 2025. For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a signed area of 7.1354 million square meters and a signed amount of 145.171 billion yuan [2]. - Country Garden achieved a sales amount of 2.81 billion yuan and a sales area of 350,000 square meters in June. From January to June, the sales amount was 16.75 billion yuan with a sales area of 2.049 million square meters [2]. - Zhengrong Real Estate reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 402 million yuan and a sales area of about 23,400 square meters in June. For the first half of 2025, the cumulative contract sales amount was approximately 2.365 billion yuan with a sales area of about 142,600 square meters [2]. Market Activity in Hot Regions - In Shenzhen, 5,546 second-hand homes were recorded in June 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 3.2% but a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. The average monthly recorded volume for the first half of 2025 was 5,851 units, indicating a sustained active market driven by policy support and demand release [4]. - The Shenzhen Beike Research Institute anticipates that the market activity in the second half of the year will improve due to continued loose policies and the traditional sales peak season [4]. Industry Analysis - The real estate market is stabilizing amid policy guidance, demand adjustments, and industry transformation. The market is transitioning from "incremental decline" to "quality improvement," with core high-end projects in first-tier cities supporting price increases [5]. - New first-tier and second-tier cities are expected to see price stabilization and recovery as quality housing supply increases, while third and fourth-tier cities may continue to adopt "price for volume" strategies [5]. Policy Support - Cities like Xi'an and Qingdao have recently introduced favorable policies to support the real estate market, including expanding the scope of housing provident fund payment for down payments [6]. - Beijing is working on regulations to better protect consumer rights in the housing rental market, which includes oversight of personal subletting activities [7]. Future Outlook - The year 2025 is viewed as a transitional period for the real estate market, with ongoing adjustments leading to new dynamics. There is potential for further reductions in mortgage rates and possible easing of purchase restrictions in certain cities [7].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has shown signs of stabilization in the first half of the year, with both new and second-hand housing transactions increasing year-on-year, particularly in key provinces where second-hand transactions have surpassed new ones [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of the year, the overall transaction volume of new and second-hand homes increased year-on-year, with second-hand home transactions gradually rising [1]. - Major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw significant activity in second-hand home sales, with Shenzhen experiencing over 30% year-on-year growth, while Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou had increases around 20% [1]. - In Beijing, 88,600 second-hand homes were sold in the first half of 2025, marking an 18% increase year-on-year, with over 60% of transactions being homes priced below 5 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - Policies such as lowering the minimum down payment for personal housing loans have significantly reduced purchasing costs, aiding market recovery [3]. - The overall price of second-hand homes in 100 cities fell by 3.6% in the first half of the year, indicating a trend of "price for volume" [3]. - Over 150 policies to optimize housing provident fund policies and 64 related to purchase subsidies were introduced in the first half of the year, effectively releasing demand potential [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The real estate policy environment is expected to remain loose in the second half of the year, with existing policies likely to be further implemented [3]. - Key cities are anticipated to see continued strong second-hand home transaction volumes due to significant housing demand, particularly among young people and new citizens [4].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 07 月 06 日 1-6 月累计拿地均价同比增幅较 1-5 月扩大 ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 总量研究/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 7 月 3 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 7 月 3 日） | 新房（7 | 月 | 1 日-7 月 | 3 日） | 二手房（7 | 月 | 1 日-7 月 | 3 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | | 较 6 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | | 较 6 月 | | 样本城市 | -34% | -扩大 | -21 PCT | 样本城市 | -9% | -扩大 | -5 PCT | | 城） （39 | | | | 城） （16 | | | | | 一线城市 | -41% | -扩大 | -40 PCT | 一线城市 | -11% | 转负 | -17 PCT | | （4 城） | | | | （2 城） | | | ...

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced two significant adjustment phases in the past six months, driven by discrepancies in monetary policy expectations and fundamental outlooks [2] - The first adjustment occurred from February to March, where the anticipated "double reduction" policy did not materialize, leading to a tightening of the funding environment and a subsequent decline in bond prices [2] - The second adjustment was triggered in early April by unexpected increases in U.S. tariffs, raising concerns about the economic fundamentals and leading to a rapid strengthening of the bond market [2] Group 2 - Future variables that could disrupt the current market oscillation include a potential slowdown in economic growth, which may lead to a temporary strengthening of bonds [3] - If the market doubts the sustainability of short-term positive economic data, it could impact corporate capital expenditure and consumer confidence, potentially leading to a correction in economic growth expectations and a subsequent bond market rally [3] - A more proactive signal from the central bank could guide funding prices lower, which may lead to a decrease in short-term yields and open up space for long-term price increases [4] Group 3 - The resilience shown in the domestic economy during the first half of the year may lower policy expectations for the second half, and if fiscal and real estate policies exceed expectations, it could lead to an upward revision of fundamental outlooks [4] - The bond market is currently in a low interest rate and low spread environment, with institutional funds likely to engage in ongoing debates regarding the pace and intensity of easing measures [4] - In this oscillating market, flexibility in duration management and careful selection of investment products will be essential to enhance returns through periodic trading [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is intensifying efforts to stabilize the real estate market, emphasizing the importance of local governments in implementing effective policies to promote recovery and growth in the sector [2][6]. Group 1: Government Actions and Policies - The State Council has mandated greater efforts to halt the decline in the real estate market, with recent actions including a research group visiting Guangdong and Zhejiang to analyze market conditions and gather feedback [2]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has highlighted the need for local governments to take responsibility and utilize their policy autonomy to implement targeted measures [2][7]. - The government aims to enhance the quality of housing, focusing on safety, comfort, and sustainability, while also stabilizing expectations, activating demand, optimizing supply, and mitigating risks [2][4]. Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - According to the China Index Academy, the real estate market showed signs of recovery in early 2025, with new home prices in monitored cities rising by 1.16% in the first half of the year, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous period [5]. - The second-hand housing market has seen a cumulative price decline of 3.60%, with prices continuing to drop for 38 consecutive months, despite a high level of activity in transactions [5][6]. - Key provinces like Guangdong and Zhejiang have shown resilience, with new home transaction areas increasing year-on-year, indicating a stable market foundation despite national sales declines [3][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The report anticipates that local governments will actively implement existing policies to further stabilize the real estate market, including enhancing urban renewal and financial support for housing projects [8]. - Focused efforts will be made to improve financing mechanisms and stimulate demand in major cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which are critical to the overall market recovery [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that new and second-hand housing transactions are slowing down year-on-year, indicating a need for continued policy support to stimulate demand [4][6] - The Beijing government is actively optimizing real estate policies to enhance housing supply and improve living conditions for residents [3][8] Summary by Sections Policy Tracking - On July 1, the Beijing government held a meeting to discuss advancing housing policies, emphasizing a multi-supplier and multi-channel housing supply system [3][8] - The focus is on improving the quality of housing and ensuring adequate land supply near transportation hubs and employment centers [3][8] Transaction Data - In June, Beijing's second-hand housing transactions reached 16,800 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.3% but a slowdown compared to previous months [4][6] - For new homes, the transaction area in 30 major cities was 2.63 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20.8% [5][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and reasonable land reserves, such as Poly Developments [6][15] - It also recommends attention to major intermediary firms benefiting from active second-hand housing transactions, like I Love My Home [6][15]