金十数据4月30日讯，财经网站Forexlive：德国4月CPI月率略高于预期，但不会改变欧洲央行6月份降息 的计划。不过，核心通胀出现了显著的跃升。我们将观察未来几个月事态的发展，但贸易谈判仍是市场 关注的焦点。从长远来看，如果贸易战方面取得进展，可能会看到需求强劲而突然的回升，这将推动经 济活动和价格上涨。这是值得警惕的，因为它可能引发更强硬的利率预期重新定价。 机构：德国CPI略高于预期也不会改变欧洲央行六月降息的计划 ...

公司1Q25 业绩符合我们预期 公司1Q25 净利润/拨备前利润/营业收入同比+1.4%/-4.5%/-1.0%，业绩符合我们预期。 发展趋势 利润增速上升。公司1Q25 净利润/拨备前利润/营业收入同比增速较2024 年分别+0.4ppt/-4.6ppt/-1.9ppt， 净利润增速改善，主要由于信用成本下降，资产减值损失同比下降13.5%；营业收入增速有所下降，其 中其他非息收入同比下降10.6%，较2024 年下降15.8ppt，主要由于债券及权益市场波动加大导致；利息 净收入同比增长2.5%，较2024 年下降1.0ppt，主要由于一季度息差重定价压力较大。 资产增长较快。公司一季度总资产/信贷同比增长7.4%/8.7%，较2024 年分别上升1.4ppt/1.2ppt，资产保 持稳定扩张。重点领域看，公司科技金融信贷较年初增幅+11.3%，节能降碳企业信贷增幅+7.5%，普惠 小微贷款增幅+5.9%，养老产业信贷增幅+13.8%，均保持较快增长。公司预计2025 年全年人民币信贷 增幅与2024 年持平，结构上继续投向五篇大文章等重点领域，并继续提升零售信贷占比。 维持盈利预测与估值不变。当前A 股 ...

旅界 . 跟踪时代浪潮，讲述文旅商业好故事。 五一机票没跳水，打工人要破防。 作者 | theodore熙少 以下文章来源于旅界 ，作者theodore熙少 来源 | 旅界 （ID：tourismzonenews） 01 快到五一了，还没有"抄底"买到机票的打工人焦虑情绪正在社交媒体上蔓延。 4月下旬，打开小红书、微博、各大旅游群，"机票怎么还不跳水？"成了热搜评论区的统 一口号。 有网友晒出深圳飞成都的票价，4月23日仍坚挺在全价。 有人在评论区咬牙自嘲："这不是等跳水，这是在等航司反杀。" 有人总结得更直白："航司精准避开五一，这哪是跳水，这是滑水——往后滑。" 评论区更是不乏有大量用户绝望地祭出"反杀熟大法"，祈祷自己想买的机票能顺利"降 价"。 4月是"机票等等党"的最后阵地，他们守在小红书评论区，像猎人盯着猎物： "明天会便宜吧？" 于是，这场航司与消费者之间的博弈还在持续，没买票的消费在等着"捡漏契机"，航司 则不动声色，一场全新的赌局形成了。 02 今年五一，为什么便宜机票越来越难等了？ "结果是，每一晚睡前刷票价，第二天起床一看，票又特么涨了。" 数据不会说谎，民航飞行数据App飞常准显示，今 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward movement of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 ETF (588120) rising over 1.6%, emphasizing the importance of the N-shaped pricing rhythm in capturing opportunities within the technology industry [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange revised the listing rules for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board on April 29, optimizing corporate governance structures and enhancing investor protection mechanisms [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board's 2024 annual performance briefing launched a "Hot Industry Week" on April 28, focusing on sectors such as artificial intelligence and low-altitude economy through collective roadshows [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that the current core of technology investment lies in grasping the N-shaped pricing rhythm under the internal movement laws of the industry, indicating a low win-rate but high payout characteristic of tech investments [1] - The industry is entering a phase similar to the explosive growth of new energy vehicles in 2020, with an increase in domestic production rates driving market capitalization restructuring [1] - AI computing power is benefiting from the expansion of capital expenditures by major companies, with significant room for domestic substitution [1] Group 3 - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 ETF (code: 588120) tracks the Sci-Tech 100 Index (code: 000698), which selects 100 stocks from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board that have large market capitalizations and good liquidity [2] - The Sci-Tech 100 Index covers high-tech industries such as information technology, healthcare, and new materials, reflecting the overall performance of innovative and high-growth companies in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board market [2] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 ETF linked C (019867) and linked A (019866) [2]

零跑汽车创始人、董事长兼CEO 朱江明 在这个每一天都可能有新车上市的2025，中国汽车行业步入了极限内卷的新常态。 2025上海车展，超千家企业参展、超过百款新车集中亮相，汽车行业的"热闹"似乎远未退潮。 零跑汽车创始人、董事长兼CEO 朱江明在接受媒体群访时透露，今年市场预计将迎来 600 至 700 款车 型上市。若将年度改款车型纳入统计，该数据或达此规模；而严格意义上的全新车型，实际上经统计约 为 120 款。 在朱江明看来，行业已经步入深度红海竞争，绝对是残酷的，价格战必然不可避免。当前汽车行业竞争 格局中，新势力车企、传统中国车企与海外车企构成三大主要竞争阵营，未来三年对每一家车企而言， 其销量表现都至关重要。 可以说，市场格局最终明朗尚还需要经过三年左右的时间。在此关键窗口期内，各大车企开始疯狂向市 场推出新产品，目的只有一个就是为了抢占更多市场份额，让自己活下来。 朱江明坦言，去年对今年市场的一些预估和策略都有调整，但零跑整个B系列车型的定价策略没有变 过。面对激烈的市场竞争，零跑做好了充分的准备，有信心完成今年的销量目标。 走量车型打开新增量，冲刺年销50万辆 零跑在2024年全年销量达到2 ...

2025年，国际政治经济环境进入"高波动模式"。特朗普政府的贸易政策反复、地缘冲突（俄乌、中东局 势持续升温）、美联储政策预期摇摆，以及全球债务货币化加速，共同构成了市场的"黑天鹅矩阵"。在 此背景下，传统避险资产（黄金、美债）与新兴工具（数字货币、身份规划）的博弈，折射出全球资本 对风险定价的深层焦虑与策略革新。 1. 黄金：从"避险之王"到"信用对冲工具"的蜕变 2024年黄金涨幅超25%，2025年一季度短暂突破3500美元/盎司后回调，但其长期逻辑正从单纯的避险 需求转向对美元信用体系的重构。 - 央行购金潮：全球央行连续三年购金量超1000吨，中国央行黄金储备占比仅5%，远低于欧美60%的水 平，增持空间巨大。这一行为不仅是对冲地缘风险，更是对美元武器化的防御性回应。 - 定价权转移：黄金与美元的相关性减弱，其作为"逆全球化"标的的属性凸显。人民币黄金价格成为新 兴市场货币锚的潜在信号，暗示全球货币体系的多极化趋势。 - 技术面压力与长期潜力：短期受美联储鹰派表态压制，但下半年若美国通胀与增长错配加剧，叠加债 务上限问题，金价或再迎突破窗口。 2. 美债：高收益率下的"矛盾型避险" 美债收益率维持4 ...

Group 1 - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves over the past year due to structural concerns regarding the credibility of the US dollar system, indicating a revaluation of gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the escalation in the Middle East and the recurring Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the long-term value of gold [1] - The recent pullback in gold prices after a surge in risk aversion highlights the "buy the expectation, sell the fact" trading pattern, which has led to increased volatility in gold prices [1] Group 2 - The gold market has entered a futures pricing era, with institutions actively participating through options combinations and cross-period arbitrage, characterized by quick in-and-out trading strategies [3] - Current trading dynamics show intense competition between bulls and bears around the $3275 per ounce mark, with critical support levels identified between $3265 and $3260 per ounce [3] - A potential technical rebound could occur if the support levels hold, while the $3300 per ounce mark remains a significant resistance level [3] Group 3 - Suggested trading strategy includes selling on rebounds between $3327 and $3335, with a stop loss at $3344 and targets set at $3300 and $3270 [4] - Emphasis on the importance of self-discipline, error correction, and strict adherence to investment principles as fundamental to success in trading [4] - The analysis covers a comprehensive understanding of global economic systems and various trading instruments, aiming to guide investors towards correct investment directions [4]

当无数向往自由的打工人仰望五一假期的机票价格时，他们期待的 " 价格跳水 " 正在变得越来越遥不可及。 还有人笃定 "五一前一定会降！"于是，当看到某条航线票价 500+ 时，选择了按兵不动，心想"再等等，还能更低"。结果等来的不是跳水，而是跳 涨。 | 后天 用器 周五 周日 周一 | | 周六 | | 更多 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 04-30 01 02 | | 03 | 04 | 05 日期 | | ¥ 1170 ¥626 ¥1142 ¥76 | ¥ 918 × 696 | | | | | 08:00 35时15分 -- 中特 -- | | 23:10 | | 4-4-6-2 V 1 05 8 | | 205 00 T 4 上海 | | 通城 | | 日代■ASS P | | 6 山熊 �山航 总39时10分 ● 航安免费退改 | | | | 学生再减￥10 | | 06:55 2055分 一中静 | | 14:40 | | 4-1250 V ZUS | | 高崎T4 大连 | | 速增 | | 日代画 A 22 P | | 6 山航 专山航 总7时45分 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Standing at the end of April and looking forward to May, investors' preference for long - term and ultra - long - term bonds has increased, while their attention to credit products has decreased month - on - month, but there may be a characteristic of "being bullish but not taking action" [1][10]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of April, six mainstream expectations of investors for the May bond market are summarized: preference for long - term and ultra - long - term bonds has increased significantly; Trump's tariff policy may promote the early implementation of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cut policies, and the positive impact on the bond market can continue; the current expectation of monetary easing is still strong, with most investors expecting an RRR cut in May - June and an interest rate cut more likely in the third quarter; most investors believe that the bond market will strengthen overall in May, and the probability of a bull - flattening curve is high; most investors' judgments on the operating ranges of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields are narrow, and the market is expected to be mainly volatile; in terms of operations, most investors are neutral in practice and prefer to keep their positions basically stable, possibly showing "being bullish but not taking action" [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Survey Background - A bond market questionnaire "What to expect from the May bond market?" was released on April 25, 2025, targeting the main concerns of the May 2025 bond market. As of 24:00 on April 27, a total of 331 valid questionnaires were received, covering various institutional investors such as bank self - operation, securities firm self - operation, public funds/special accounts, and individual investors [8]. 3.2 Expectations for Treasury Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: 48% of investors think the lower limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond rate is below 1.60%, and 45% think it is between 1.60% - 1.70% (inclusive). 76% of investors believe the upper limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond rate may be within 1.80%, and 11% think it may be between 1.80% - 1.85% (inclusive). Most investors expect the bond market in May to trade around the tariff policy, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate is unlikely to return to the previous high in April [11]. - **30 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: 41% of investors think the lower limit of the 30 - year Treasury bond operating range in May will be less than 1.8%, and 43% think it is between 1.80% - 1.85% (inclusive). 53% of investors believe the upper limit of the 30 - year Treasury bond operating range in May is between 1.90% - 2.00% (inclusive), and 31% think it is within 1.90%. The overall bond market in May may be volatile and slightly stronger [14]. 3.3 Expectations for the Second - Quarter Economic Trend - 62% of investors think the economic trend in the second quarter will be "both year - on - year and month - on - month weakening", a significant increase compared with the April questionnaire results. 22% of investors think it will show the characteristic of "year - on - year recovery but month - on - month weaker than the seasonal level". 10% of investors think it will be "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month in line with the seasonal level", and 5% think it will be "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month exceeding the seasonal level", a significant decrease compared with the April questionnaire results. The deviation between the economic fundamental expectation and the reality needs a certain verification period [19]. 3.4 Expectations for RRR and Interest Rate Cuts - **RRR Cut**: 66% of investors think an RRR cut will occur in May - June, and 17% think it will be in the third quarter. Investors have a high expectation for an RRR cut and expect it to happen earlier [21]. - **Interest Rate Cut**: 49% of investors think an interest rate cut will occur in the third quarter, 31% think it will be in May - June. 12% of investors think there will be no interest rate cut in 2025. Investors' expectation for an interest rate cut has further strengthened, and the proportion of those who think there will be no interest rate cut in 2025 has decreased significantly [21]. 3.5 Impact of Trump's Tariff Policy on the Bond Market - 46% of investors think it may promote the early implementation of RRR and interest rate cut policies, and the positive impact on the bond market can continue. 27% think the subsequent focus will be on the expectation of tariff policy cooling, and the positive impact on the bond market has ended. 15% think it may trigger non - US countries to impose tariffs on China, and the positive impact on the bond market can continue. 12% think it may strengthen the policy - makers' determination to stabilize the capital market, and the positive impact on the bond market has ended. Overall, investors generally think the subsequent impact of Trump's tariff policy on the bond market is still positive [23]. 3.6 Expectations for the May Bond Market行情 - 27% of investors think the interest rate curve will strengthen overall and show a bull - flattening trend in May. 26% think it will strengthen overall and show a bull - steepening trend. 16% think it is difficult to judge the trend of the interest rate curve in May. 10% think the short - end of the interest rate curve will be strong and the long - end will be weak, and 10% think the short - end will be weak and the long - end will be strong. Overall, more investors are optimistic about the May bond market, but there is some divergence between the expectations of a bull - flattening and a bull - steepening curve [25]. 3.7 Bond Market Operation Suggestions - 49% of investors think they should keep their positions basically stable. 23% think they should hold cash and wait, and then add positions after the market回调 to the expected level. 13% think they can start adding positions. 11% think they should take appropriate profits and reduce positions. 4% think they should reduce the duration to control risks. Most investors are neutral in practice, and keeping positions stable is the mainstream view [29]. 3.8 Preferred Bond Varieties in May - 18% and 17% of investors think the opportunities for long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds are relatively certain. 15%, 10%, and 10% of investors are more optimistic about medium - short - term interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and local government bonds respectively. About 9% of investors prefer medium - low - grade urban investment bonds. Investors have a higher preference for interest - rate products such as interest - rate bonds, certificates of deposit, and government bonds, and their preference for credit products has decreased month - on - month. The preferred varieties have shifted from the short - end to the long - end and ultra - long - end [32]. 3.9 Main Logic of Bond Market Pricing in May - 31% of investors think the central bank's monetary policy attitude and the trend of the capital market are still the main pricing logics for the May bond market. 16% and 15% of investors think fiscal stimulus, government bond issuance, and fundamental data such as real estate and PMI are the main pricing logics. 13% of investors think the implementation of the US tariff policy is the main pricing logic. The central bank's monetary policy attitude and the trend of the capital market are still the most concerned factors for investors [34].

价格波动性与市场复杂性呈现螺旋式上升。俄乌冲突导致的天然气价格单日波动超30%，LME镍期货逼 空事件等极端案例，既考验企业的风险承受能力，也为套利交易创造空间。头部贸易商通过建立"波动 率指数矩阵"，将价格异动转化为交易机会，2023年在能源品类实现22%的超额收益。这种市场特性倒 逼企业构建多层次分析体系，某金属贸易商融合卫星遥感数据、港口吞吐量和期货持仓量等300余个指 标，将市场预判准确率提升至75%。 行业竞争要素发生根本转变。传统资源禀赋优势正被数据资产和人才储备所替代，全球大宗交易机构对 量化分析师的需求三年增长170%，顶尖交易团队中机器学习专家占比超过40%。这种转变在农产品领 域尤为显著，ABCD四大粮商通过建立"数字农业生态"，整合土壤传感、气象预测和期货对冲系统，将 种植决策响应时间从季度级缩短至小时级。 二、大宗商品采购管理体系的精益化、数智化重构 传统采购模式正在经历"三级跃迁"。从保证供应的1.0阶段，演进至风险管控和精益采购的2.0阶段，最 终迈向数智化决策赋能的价值创造3.0形态。某生猪养殖企业的转型实践具有示范意义：通过搭建"采购 决策驾驶舱"，整合供需平衡表、成本模型和物 ...