Group 1 - The core idea of the articles revolves around the "anti-involution" policies aimed at addressing excessive competition in various industries, particularly focusing on the need for regulatory measures to improve product quality and eliminate low-price competition [1][2][3] - The "anti-involution" policy has evolved through several stages, starting from the initial discussions in 2024 to the latest measures proposed in 2025, indicating a comprehensive approach to tackle the issue of irrational competition [2][3] - The macroeconomic impact of "involution" includes a downward spiral of prices leading to reduced corporate profits and consumer spending, necessitating a structured approach to reverse this trend and stimulate economic growth [2][3] Group 2 - Industries expected to break the "involution" cycle include new energy sectors such as solar and electric vehicles, where technological innovation is seen as a key driver for differentiation and competition [4][5] - Traditional cyclical industries like steel and cement are also highlighted, with a focus on supply-side reforms to improve capacity utilization and financial stability [5] - The consumer manufacturing sector is encouraged to enhance quality and reduce costs through digitalization, particularly in livestock farming, to mitigate the effects of cyclical price fluctuations [5] Group 3 - The stock market is anticipated to experience a shift due to "anti-involution" measures, with potential improvements in profitability for certain sectors if price stability and capacity reduction are achieved [6][7] - The current market phase is characterized by policy-driven expectations, with future stages involving capacity clearing and profit recovery, similar to past supply-side reforms [6][7] - Investment strategies should focus on supply-side optimization, technological advancements, and market expansion opportunities, indicating a structural shift in the market dynamics [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in demand for hedging has led to a significant increase in trading activity in the futures market, driven by multiple factors including trade policy uncertainty, rising U.S. debt risks, and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Trading Activity - In June, the national futures market recorded a trading volume of 740 million contracts and a turnover of 52.79 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 28.91% and 17.25% respectively [1]. - For the first half of the year, the cumulative trading volume reached 4.076 billion contracts with a turnover of 339.73 trillion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 17.82% and 20.68% [1]. Factors Driving Activity - Increased trade friction has disrupted global commodity expectations, particularly in agricultural and energy sectors, leading to heightened hedging and speculative activities [1]. - The rise in U.S. debt risks has spread a risk-averse sentiment, making government bond futures and precious metals futures key asset allocation tools [1]. - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts have exacerbated instability in the energy and chemical sectors, further driving the "hedging + speculation" trading logic [1]. Market Innovations - The deepening reforms and innovations in the futures market have also contributed to active trading, with the introduction of new products and relaxed regulations for international participants [2]. - The trading volume of gold and oil has become a focal point, with gold and gold options seeing increases of 80.35% and 128.36% respectively in the first half of the year [2]. Future Outlook - The overall trading activity in the futures market is expected to remain high in the second half of the year, driven by continuous investor expansion and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [3][4]. - However, the growth rate may slow down, and there will be increased differentiation among trading varieties due to potential easing of geopolitical conflicts [4]. Specific Commodity Insights - Analysts remain optimistic about the gold futures market, expecting continued high trading volumes due to persistent global uncertainties and the U.S. Federal Reserve's policies [5][6]. - The container shipping index futures have recently rebounded, although the overall market remains under pressure from high supply and trade policy risks [6].

宏 观 研 究 "反内卷"系列 2025 年 07 月 10 日 "反内卷"，被低估的决心 ——"反内卷"系列之三 中央财经委会议提出 "依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争…推动落后产能有序退出"为"反内卷" 指明方向。相比过往，本轮"内卷"症结何在，如何破解"内卷"困境？系统分析，供参考。 一、本轮"反内卷"，有何不同？站位更高，覆盖面更广，协同性更强 中央财经委员会第六次会议召开，以纵深推进全国统一大市场建设为主题，为"综合整治内卷 式竞争"政策部署指明方向。会议提出"五统一、一开放"要求，同时强调"依法依规治理企 业低价无序竞争…推动落后产能有序退出"等，进一步明确行后续"反内卷"政策路径。 本轮"反内卷"站位更高，覆盖面更广，协同性更强。本轮"反内卷"，地方政府（招商引资）、 企业（过度投资、降价）、居民（日均工作时间增加）可能都在讨论的范畴中。且"内卷"领 域民营经济占比较高下，本轮"反内卷"协同性或更强，更突出政策与市场机制配合。同时， 本轮"反内卷"更强调区域治理，明确将推动全国统一大市场建设列为核心任务。 见微知著，部分企业"内卷"症结或部分缘于营收增速大幅回落与固定费用刚性的矛盾，使得 其不得不采 ...

文 | 曾宁 来源 | 曾宁大宗商品研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 最近关于"反内卷"的讨论如火如荼，与此同时，以多晶硅为代表的大宗商品出现了大幅的反弹，那 么，本轮大宗商品的反弹，仅仅是因为"反内卷"吗？后期大宗商品的进一步走势如何？本期我们结合 近期的宏观和产业背景进行简要分析。 今年以来最弱的大宗商品，就是和"煤炭+地产"关系最密切的大宗商品，以黑色建材和新能 源商品为代表，但是从6月份以来，黑色建材和新能源商品整体上就进入了筑底阶段，背后 的原因，主要是成本触及底部以及需求的超预期。 从成本来看，最近两年煤炭的过剩格局，使得煤炭以及和煤炭相关的黑色建材、工业硅、多 晶硅等商品成本坍塌。但是，随着动力煤和焦煤价格进入边际成本线，以及适逢当前的迎峰 度夏，煤炭价格出现了企稳反弹，大宗商品的长鞭效应以及资本市场的羊群效应构成了煤炭 的下游商品反弹的基础。 另外一方面是需求的超预期，4月份之后特朗普的关税实际落地不及预期，缓解了全球的需 求担忧，中国的出口持续超预期。从海外来看，美国经济当前稳健，"大而美"法案的通过尽 管长期来看将加大美国的债务风险，但中短期内将继续提振美国经济。在海外经济相对 ...

金十数据7月10日讯，Monex分析师在最新报告中指出，尽管英国经济面临诸多风险，英镑仍展现出一 定韧性。周三，在议会质询中被反对党领袖追问时，首相斯塔默拒绝排除未来征收财富税的可能性。但 与上周不同的是，此次表态并未引发英镑抛售潮。此前，由于斯塔默在福利改革"掉头"后未能第一时间 确认财政大臣里夫斯将继续留任，曾导致英镑承压。报告指出："不过，政府所面临的经济挑战并未改 变，这也意味着英镑仍将承压前行。" 机构：英镑展现韧性 但经济基本面仍存隐忧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) sector is experiencing a rebound in stock prices due to expectations of production cuts and rising prices in the upstream supply chain, despite a slowdown in terminal demand [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The photovoltaic index has risen significantly, with the photovoltaic ETF (515790.OF) increasing by over 14% since the last week of June, and 20 PV stocks have seen gains exceeding 20% [1][2]. - The price of silicon materials has increased by over 6% week-on-week, with rumors of silicon wafer companies raising their prices by 8% to 11.7% [1][2][3]. - The main multi-crystalline silicon futures contract has risen by 5% as of July 10, with a cumulative rebound of nearly 35% since June 26 [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - TCL Zhonghuan (002129.SZ) is expected to report a significant increase in net profit losses for Q2, with estimates ranging from 4 billion to 4.5 billion yuan, attributed to falling product prices and inventory pressures [5]. - Aiko Solar (爱旭股份, 600732.SH) anticipates a turnaround in Q2, projecting a net profit loss of 170 million to 280 million yuan, a significant improvement compared to previous losses exceeding 5 billion yuan [4][5]. - The performance of companies in the PV sector is showing divergence, with some manufacturers experiencing worsening losses while others manage to narrow their losses through product differentiation [4]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The industry is facing challenges such as overcapacity, homogeneous competition, and low-price competition, prompting a shift towards production cuts and policy adjustments to address these issues [2][6]. - The domestic PV market's terminal demand is currently weak, and the sustainability of price increases will depend on effective policies to regulate price competition and excess capacity [6]. - Analysts suggest that the focus should be on the rapid technological iteration in battery cells and the high-cost silicon material segment, which may lead to the exit of less efficient production capacities [6].

龙腾光电688055 时间: 2025年7月10日星期四 当日主力成本 58.81分综合得分 3.62 元 较强 趋势方向 主力成本分析 3.65 元 5日主力成本 3.58 过去一年内该股 涨停 1次 跌停 元 20日主力成本 3.43 元 60日主力成本 周期内涨跌停 0 次 北向资金数据 | 持股量456.36万股 | 占流通比0.13% | | --- | --- | | 昨日净买入46.19万股 | 昨日增仓比0.014% | | 5日增仓比0.03% | 20日增仓比-0.095% | 技术面分析 3.66 短期压力位 3.57 短期支撑位 3.70 中期压力位 3.37 中期支撑位 目前短线趋势不慎明朗，静待主力资金选择方向； 目前中期趋势不慎明朗，静待主力资金选择方向 K线形态 ★平顶★ 温和的反转 ★多方炮★ 在底部出现有上涨可能，在中间出现有可能是上涨中继，顶部出现是复合见顶信号 资金流数据 2025年07月10日的资金流向数据方面 | 主力资金净流出121.22万元 | | --- | | 占总成交额-6% | | 超大单净流入147.88万元 | | 大单净流出269.10万元 | | ...

Group 1 - The stock of Electric Wind Power (688660) has a comprehensive score of 56.73, indicating a strong performance [1] - The main cost analysis shows the following prices: current main cost at 8.48 yuan, 5-day main cost at 8.56 yuan, 20-day main cost at 8.38 yuan, and 60-day main cost at 8.02 yuan [1] - In the past year, the stock has experienced 6 instances of hitting the upper limit and 1 instance of hitting the lower limit [1] Group 2 - As of July 10, 2025, the stock has a short-term resistance level at 8.72 yuan and a support level at 8.44 yuan [2] - The mid-term resistance level is also at 8.72 yuan, with a support level at 7.79 yuan [2] - The current trend is unclear, with the market waiting for the main funds to choose a direction [2] Group 3 - On July 10, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 23.52 million yuan, accounting for 24% of the total transaction amount [2] - There was a net inflow of 1.0615 million yuan from large orders, while large orders saw a net outflow of 24.5866 million yuan [2] - Retail investors contributed a net inflow of 624.6 thousand yuan [2] Group 4 - Related industry sectors showed mixed performance: Wind Power Equipment down by 0.48%, State-Owned Enterprise Reform up by 0.56%, New Energy up by 0.03%, and Wind Energy up by 0.15% [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The necessity for supply-side reform in the photovoltaic industry is highlighted due to ongoing profitability pressures, with over 150 companies expected to face bankruptcy or liquidation by mid-2025 [2] - The industry has experienced significant price declines since Q4 2023, leading to widespread losses among major companies, with a notable shift towards a cash-negative state by Q1 2025 [2][11] - The demand for photovoltaic products is expected to rebound in the medium to long term as energy storage economics improve, particularly after the implementation of the "136 Document" [3][20] Summary by Sections Event Description - Major polysilicon manufacturers raised prices to 37 CNY/kg as of July 7, 2025, with full costs estimated above 39-40 CNY/kg [1][11] Event Commentary - The photovoltaic sector has seen leading companies enter a phase of substantial losses since Q4 2023, necessitating coordinated supply-side reforms among key industry players [2] - Historical supply-side reforms in related industries have led to significant increases in Producer Price Index (PPI), indicating potential for recovery in the photovoltaic sector [2][14] Industry Performance - In May 2025, photovoltaic grid connections reached 9.3 GW, a 388% year-on-year increase, but demand is expected to face short-term pressure due to earlier overcapacity [3][20] - The future of photovoltaic demand is contingent on achieving price parity in energy storage solutions, which is anticipated to unlock new market opportunities [3][20]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in non-ferrous metals prices are influenced by supply-side reforms in China and the announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. starting August 1, 2025, which has created a divergence in copper prices between the U.S. and China [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The supply-side reforms in China have benefitted traditional industries like aluminum, steel, and coal, leading to price increases due to low inventory levels [1]. - Following the U.S. tariff announcement, copper prices in New York rose over 2%, while domestic copper prices in China fell, indicating market concerns about reduced global demand for copper [1][7]. - The China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Index showed a strong upward trend initially but experienced a significant drop during the tariff announcement period, reflecting market volatility [1]. Group 2: Financing Trends - As of July 9, 2025, the financing balance for the non-ferrous metals sector increased by 9.64 billion, indicating strong investor interest despite market fluctuations [4][6]. - The construction materials sector saw the highest financing balance growth rate at 1.43%, followed by non-ferrous metals at 1.22% [4][6]. Group 3: ETF Strategies - The non-ferrous metals ETFs are relatively small in scale, with three funds exceeding 4 billion in size, including the leading Southern CSI Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals ETF [8][10]. - The Dachen Non-Ferrous Metals Futures ETF is sensitive to price fluctuations due to its direct tracking of futures contracts, making it suitable for investors who closely monitor commodity prices [10][12]. - The Southern CSI Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals ETF, with a scale exceeding 50 billion, is favored by investors for its comprehensive coverage of the non-ferrous metals sector [10][13]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term risks from U.S. tariffs and seasonal demand fluctuations, supply constraints are expected to support copper prices in the medium term [7]. - The long-term demand for copper and aluminum is anticipated to increase, driven by structural changes in downstream consumption, which may elevate the price stability of these metals [19].