Core Viewpoint - The central bank emphasizes that merely relying on monetary policy is insufficient to drive price recovery, advocating for structural reforms and coordinated policies across various sectors to promote reasonable price increases [2][5]. Group 1: Price Trends and Indicators - In the first quarter, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with monthly fluctuations of 0.5%, -0.7%, and -0.1% [2]. - Food prices fell by 1.4% year-on-year, influenced by seasonal factors and international oil price volatility [2]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% year-on-year, indicating a mild upward trend in non-food prices [2]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Analysis - Demand remains weak due to global growth slowdown, economic structural transformation, and the need for enhanced consumer spending [3]. - Supply-side issues include excessive competition in certain industries and inefficiencies in traditional sectors, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [3]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - The central bank refutes the notion that increasing money supply will automatically lead to price increases, citing historical examples of low inflation despite monetary expansion [4]. - Effective demand expansion is crucial for price recovery, necessitating structural reforms and coordinated policy efforts across fiscal, monetary, and social sectors [5]. - The focus should shift from managing high prices to managing low prices, emphasizing quality development and preventing disorderly competition [5].

最新物价指数公布，我国部分领域价格已呈现积极变化。 从同比看，CPI略有下降，主要受国际油价下行影响。能源价格同比下降4.8%，降幅比上月扩大2.2个百分 点。其中汽油价格下降10.4%，影响CPI同比下降约0.38个百分点，是带动CPI同比下降的主要因素。 PPI环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同。影响本月PPI下降的主要原因是国际输入性因素影响国内相关行业价 格下行，以及国内部分能源价格季节性下降。 董莉娟表示，我国促消费等宏观政策加力扩围，高技术产业加快成长，部分行业需求增加，一些领域价格 呈现积极变化，一是部分行业供需关系有所改善，价格降幅收窄；二是高技术产业发展带动相关行业价格 上涨。 中国人民银行最新发布《2025年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》认为，随着扩大内需政策落地显效，市 场需求加快释放，将更好支撑物价水平温和回升。 如何看待当前的物价指数？后续走势如何？数据公布后，风口智库多位专家做出解读。 国家统计局5月10日公布的数据显示，4月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比下降0.1%，环比上涨 0.1%；全国工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）同比下降2.7%，环比下降0.4%。 国家统计局城市 ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In April, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a shift from decline to growth in the month-on-month comparison [1][3] - Food prices rose by 0.2%, while non-food prices increased by 0.1%, with service prices up by 0.3%, driven by seasonal factors and demand recovery [3][4] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, reflecting stable supply-demand dynamics [3][10] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, with the decline attributed to international input factors and seasonal drops in energy prices [1][9] - Certain industrial sectors showed signs of price stabilization, with black metal and non-metal mineral product prices experiencing reduced year-on-year declines [5][6] - The PPI's month-on-month decline was influenced by falling prices in the petroleum and natural gas extraction sectors, as well as in the non-ferrous metal industries [9][10] Group 3: Economic Policies and Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China noted that policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are beginning to take effect, which is expected to support a moderate recovery in price levels [1][10] - Recent macroeconomic policies, including interest rate cuts and structural tools, are designed to stimulate domestic demand and support price stability [10] - The upcoming holiday seasons are anticipated to boost service prices, contributing to a potential recovery in the core CPI [10]

中国4月PPI同比 -2.7%，前值 -2.5%。 ...

被视为下一任美联储主席热门人选的前美联储理事凯文.沃什警告称，如果美联储无法防止因关税引发 的物价上涨演变为持续性通胀，那么责任应由央行承担，其信誉也将受到严重挑战。 沃什在斯坦福大学的一场活动上表示："如果中央银行声称外部因素导致物价水平上升，并由此驱动通 胀结果，那某种程度上是在承认自身失职。"他进一步指出："这其实是在说，美联储缺乏足够的公信力 去阻止通胀发生。" 随着特朗普推动新一轮关税政策，经济学家普遍预期关税将推高商品价格，并可能拖慢经济增长速度。 对此，美联储主席鲍威尔以及多位官员已多次表达担忧，认为关税带来的不确定性可能引发通胀和失业 的双重风险。 回顾近年来的通胀演变，美国通胀在2021年迅速攀升，当时正值新冠疫情冲击全球供应链，企业在需求 激增中难以应对，物价节节攀升。美联储当时曾判断通胀是"暂时性的"，这一判断后来被证明过于乐 观。随后在2022年和2023年，美联储大幅加息以遏制通胀。 目前美联储所偏好的通胀指标，核心个人消费支出物价指数(PCE)自2022年高点超过7%之后大幅回落， 但仍未回归其2%的长期目标。 政策制定者强调，他们的关键任务是引导和稳定公众的通胀预期，防止因关税造 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of supporting the bond market's healthy development and highlights the risks associated with interest rate fluctuations in the bond market [1] - It notes that while government bonds carry no credit risk, their market prices are subject to reverse fluctuations when market interest rates change, thus facing interest rate risk [1] - The report suggests encouraging large banks to engage more in bond trading to help maintain market supply-demand balance and promote reasonable bond pricing [1] Group 2 - The report advocates for creating a favorable financial environment to boost and expand consumption, especially as external demand weakens due to global trade tensions [2] - It outlines that the People's Bank of China will implement moderately loose monetary policies and introduce a package of financial measures to support consumption [2] - The report identifies ongoing issues in the real economy, such as weak demand and excessive competition in certain sectors, which affect price levels [2] Group 3 - The report states that promoting a reasonable rebound in prices requires balancing supply and demand, with a focus on expanding effective demand [3] - It calls for deepening structural reforms and coordinating various policies, including fiscal, monetary, industrial, employment, and social security, to enhance policy synergy [3] - The report suggests a shift in price control strategies from managing high prices to managing low prices, emphasizing high-quality development over mere scale expansion [3]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration for monetary policy, aiming to maintain prices at a reasonable level [1][2] - The report highlights a shift in macroeconomic policy focus from investment to a balanced approach between consumption and investment, with a stronger emphasis on consumption [1] - The report identifies boosting consumption as a critical point for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth, noting that China's final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP is lower compared to countries like the US and Japan [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Strategy - The report suggests that promoting reasonable price recovery requires balancing supply and demand, with a focus on expanding effective demand [2] - Experts indicate that price levels are primarily determined by supply and demand relationships, with monetary factors being secondary; current monetary growth is outpacing economic growth, yet prices remain low [2] - The report outlines the need for the implementation of a recently introduced financial support package to enhance monetary policy effectiveness and stabilize prices [2] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Government Debt - The report notes an increase in fiscal support this year, with a faster issuance of new local special bonds [1] - It compares government debt levels in China with those in the US and Japan, suggesting that China's debt expansion remains sustainable due to substantial state assets and low government debt levels [1] - Experts recommend that future fiscal policies should adjust spending structures to focus more on areas that stimulate consumption, such as elderly care, childcare, and healthcare services [1]

中国人民银行（下称"央行"）5月9日发布《2025年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》（下称《报告》）， 回顾了今年一季度货币信贷情况与政策操作，并分析当前经济金融形势，明确下一阶段政策取向。 本次《报告》有多篇专栏从不同角度体现出宏观政策思路的转变，明确指出提振消费是当前扩内需稳增长的关 键点；对比中美日政府债务情况，中国政府债务扩张仍有可持续性；促进物价合理回升，需要推动经济供需平 衡，关键在于扩大有效需求。《报告》还在专栏中指出要加强债券市场建设。 对于世界经济金融形势，《报告》指出，全球经济增长动能趋弱，国别分化日趋明显。美关税政策推升全球衰 退风险，发达经济体物价涨幅回落，但未来上涨压力依然存在。对于中国宏观经济形势，《报告》预计，物价 水平有望保持低位回升态势。随着扩大内需政策落地显效，市场需求加快释放，将更好支撑物价水平温和回 升。 在下一阶段政策取向上，《报告》提出，积极落地5月推出的一揽子金融政策。把促进物价合理回升作为把握 货币政策的重要考量，推动物价保持在合理水平。畅通货币政策传导机制，进一步完善利率调控框架，持续强 化利率政策的执行和监督，降低银行负债成本，推动社会综合融资成本下降。 一季 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Consumption - The central bank's report emphasizes that boosting consumption is a key point for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth, with signs of gradual recovery in consumption growth [2][3] - The central bank plans to increase low-cost funding support for key consumption sectors and develop guiding documents for financial support to enhance consumer finance services [2][3] - The report indicates that China's final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP is lower compared to countries like the US and Japan, suggesting significant potential for increasing consumption's contribution to economic growth [2] Group 2: Government Debt and Fiscal Policy - The report highlights that China's broad government total assets are equivalent to 166% of GDP, while total liabilities are 75% of GDP, indicating a net asset position of 91% of GDP [5][6] - The sustainability of government debt is supported by substantial state-owned assets and a relatively low level of government liabilities, allowing for continued debt expansion [6][7] - Increased fiscal support has been noted, with local governments issuing nearly 1 trillion yuan in new special bonds in the first quarter, effectively boosting investment and market confidence [8] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The central bank discusses the need to promote reasonable price recovery by balancing supply and demand, with a focus on expanding effective demand [9] - Current low price levels are influenced by multiple factors, including persistent downward pressure on consumption and significant investment contraction in traditional sectors [9][10] - Experts suggest that price management should shift from preventing "price gouging" to preventing "low-price dumping," emphasizing the importance of quality over quantity in competition [11]

2025.05. 09 本文字数：2218，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 去年10月，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在金融街论坛上表示，宏观经济政策的作用方向应从过去的更 多偏向投资，转向消费与投资并重，并更加重视消费。 5月9日，央行发布的《2025年一季度中国货币政策执行报告》（下称"报告"）有多篇专栏从不同角 度体现出宏观政策思路的转变。 例如，专栏2聚焦支持提振和扩大消费，体现了宏观政策更加注重促消费；专栏5则从政府部门资产 负债表的角度对比了中美日三国政府债务情况；专栏6指出，促进物价合理回升，需要推动经济供需 平衡，关键在于扩大有效需求。 提振消费是扩内需关键点 提振消费是当前扩内需稳增长的关键点。中央经济工作会议将"大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方 位扩大国内需求"列为2025年工作的首要重点任务。 当前，我国广义政府总资产相当于GDP的166%，总负债相当于GDP的75%，净资产约占GDP的 91%，且资产主要为具有较好增长性的国有企业股权。 业内人士认为，我国政府债务扩张有相应的资产支撑，这对于加强民生保障、完善收入分配、推动经 济转型和动态平衡都有重要意义。 今年以来，我国财政支持 ...