新华财经成都5月14日电（李倩倩、丁正威、吴桐）"世界白酒看中国，中国白酒看川贵"。中国白酒产 业主要聚集在四川贵州一带，由四川宜宾、泸州和贵州遵义三市所构成，形成了"中国白酒金三角"的分 布格局，这是业内共识。 经过多年的研究，四川省委省政府决策咨询委员会副主任、四川省社会科学院教授李后强在2017年就提 出，白酒品质与自然环境关系密切。白酒优质产区的温度、湿度、风速度、日照度、海拔度、土壤成分 度、粮食品质度、水质度、酿酒工艺度等九大指标，对酿酒有重大影响，可谓酿造美酒的"黄金九度"， 这九大因素来全面判断一个区域是否适宜酿造优质白酒，可称之为审视白酒产业发展的"九度视角"。 在新的发展阶段，"九度视角"理论的提出与核质是什么？如何增强白酒金三角地区产业集群的竞争力和 影响力，哪个地区有望成为川酒"突围"的"排头兵"？对此，新华财经对李后强进行了专访。 "九度视角"下的白酒产区禀赋因素探析 我国白酒产业主要聚集在川贵一带，由四川宜宾、泸州和贵州遵义三市所构成，大致位于长江、岷江和 赤水河流域，形成了"中国白酒金三角"的分布格局，被业界誉为"地球同纬度上最适合酿造优质纯正蒸 馏酒的生态区"。 白酒品质受自然 ...

| | 8 603589.5H | | 二十篇 1343.43 1463.81 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ற | 600809.SH | | 1329.88 | 1129.99 | | 10 | 600199.SH | 金种子酒 | 1114.13 | 1279.43 | | 11 | 000858.SZ | 五粮液 | 927.53 | 906.57 | | 128 | 000860.SZ | 顺鑫农业 | 902.3 | 740.09 | | 13 | 600696.SH | *ST岩石 | 728.26 | 958.73 | | 14 | 600197.SH | 伊力特 | 682.68 | 458.94 | | 1 ਦੇ | 600519.SH | 贵州茅台 | 680.93 | 888.91 | | 16 | 600559.SH | 老白干酒 | 671.8 | 614.6 | | 17 | 603198.SH | 迎驾贡酒 | 582.41 | 561.1 | | 18 | 000799.SZ | 酒鬼酒 | 515.89 | 606.32 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector is expected to experience increased differentiation, with companies facing challenges in maintaining performance growth while ensuring healthy distribution channels. The overall financial performance of the sector is anticipated to remain under pressure in 2025, with solid companies likely to achieve stable growth, while weaker companies may continue to decline [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 13, 2025, the CSI Major Consumer Index (000932) rose by 0.05%, with key stocks such as Proya (603605) increasing by 2.69% and XinNuoWei (300765) by 1.96% [1]. - The Major Consumer ETF (159672) increased by 0.13%, with a latest price of 0.78 yuan and a turnover rate of 4% during the trading session, amounting to 3.36 million yuan [1]. - Over the past year, the average daily trading volume of the Major Consumer ETF was 5.69 million yuan [1]. Group 2: White Liquor Sector Insights - The white liquor industry is expected to show resilience over the long term, benefiting from economic recovery and increased consumption due to stimulus policies [2]. - The differentiation within the white liquor sector is projected to intensify, with companies needing to navigate performance challenges while maintaining healthy distribution channels [1][2]. Group 3: ETF Performance Metrics - The Major Consumer ETF has seen a significant growth of 1.56 million yuan in scale over the past two weeks, ranking in the top fifth among comparable funds [2]. - Since its inception, the Major Consumer ETF has recorded a highest single-month return of 24.35% and an average monthly return of 5.36% [2]. - As of May 12, 2025, the ETF's maximum drawdown this year was 5.57%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.34% [3]. Group 4: Fee Structure and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the Major Consumer ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [4]. - The tracking error for the Major Consumer ETF over the past month was 0.014%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [5]. Group 5: Valuation and Top Holdings - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the CSI Major Consumer Index is 20.15, which is at a historical low, being below 89.64% of the time over the past year [5]. - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Major Consumer Index accounted for 67.16% of the index, including major players like Yili (600887) and Kweichow Moutai (600519) [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities emphasizes the gradual clearing of the industry and reaffirms the investment value in the liquor sector, noting that the industry is currently in a challenging period with signs of adjustment among second and third-tier companies [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The revenue, net profit, and cash collection for the liquor industry in Q4 and Q1 were 255.6 billion, 98.3 billion, and 275.1 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 1.5%, 0.2%, and 4.0% [1] - For the entire year of 2024, the liquor industry's revenue, net profit, and cash collection are projected to be 442.2 billion, 166.6 billion, and 478 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 7.3%, 7.4%, and 5.3% [1] - The Q4 performance showed revenue, net profit, and cash collection of 102.2 billion, 34.9 billion, and 122.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of 1.2%, -3.4%, and -7.4% respectively, indicating a continued adjustment phase for many companies [1] Group 2: Company Resilience and Cash Flow - Leading companies exhibit stronger resilience, with high-end liquor maintaining stability, such as Moutai showing double-digit growth and Wuliangye managing inventory effectively [2] - The overall contract liabilities for the liquor sector in Q1 2025 were 43.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.0% but a decrease of 10.4 billion yuan compared to Q4, indicating a release of channel leverage risk [2] - Cash flow performance is slightly better than revenue, as companies manage to maintain stable prepayments despite the challenges [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Pressures - The overall gross margin is under pressure, with high-end liquor experiencing some decline and regional liquor facing structural upgrades [3] - Companies are increasing sales expenses to cope with competition, with Wuliangye and Shui Jing Fang benefiting from reduced sales expenses leading to improved profitability [3] - The dealer structure is diversifying, with strong brands like Fenjiu and Gujing seeing rapid growth in their dealer networks [3]

价盘、产能、回购、国际化、代言人、行业趋势……投资者对茅台总有问不完的问题。 5月12日下午，贵州茅台举行了2024年度及2025年一季度业绩说明会，代总经理王莉、董秘蒋焰等贵州 茅台管理层出席，回应了投资者关心的诸多热点问题。21世纪经济报道记者也以投资者身份向管理层提 问，并获得回应。 国际化分级拓展 国际业务是今年贵州茅台的业绩亮点。上个月刚出炉的2025年一季报显示，今年一季度贵州茅台来自国 外的收入11.19亿元，同比大涨37.5%。这是其去年茅台出口营收首次突破50亿元后，继续实现高增长。 这背后，茅台主要做了哪些工作？具体哪些市场增长较好？ 中期的问题则涉及到茅台的产能释放节奏。针对茅台酒，茅台正在推进"茅台酒十四五技改建设项目"， 拟投资155.16亿元，建成后可新增茅台酒司机产能1.98万吨/年，储酒能力8.47万吨。从去年财报来看， 2024年新增基酒设计产能1800吨，同时茅台酒的产量为56272吨，相比前一年有所回调。 对于目前的投产节奏，有投资者提出疑问。对此王莉回应，具体产能的释放节奏，会充分考虑生态承 载、工匠培养、市场状况等要素，科学布局、有序推进，并表示茅台酒的产量波动属正常 ...

跨界合作是创造话题与新鲜感的有效手段。五粮液与施华洛水晶合作，打造出兼具时尚颜值与卓越品质的产品，泸州老窖推出的十二星座系列，以独特设计 吸引众多目光。这些跨界产品成为在抖音上绝佳的宣传点，品牌可通过展示产品设计过程、举办线上抽奖赠送跨界产品等活动，引发用户关注与讨论，在年 轻消费者心中留下深刻印象，拓展品牌的受众范围。 热点是抖音平台的流量密码，白酒品牌若能巧妙结合热点进行宣传，便能事半功倍。江小白曾借助重庆旅游热潮，推出 "重庆味道" 主题营销，成功在消费 者心中将品牌与重庆紧密相连，让江小白成为重庆旅游的特色文化符号之一。而剑南春在世界杯期间，围绕赛事热点开展营销活动，极大提升了品牌曝光 度。无论是社会热点、娱乐新闻，还是节日庆典，白酒品牌都可从中挖掘与自身品牌理念、产品特点相契合的元素，通过创意内容的制作，吸引用户关注， 借热点之势，让品牌热度飙升。 二、故事植入，赋予产品温度 抖音用户对富有故事性的内容情有独钟。白酒品牌可创作小故事、小短剧等灵活多样的形式，将产品自然地融入其中。比如，通过讲述一段关于传承的家族 酿酒故事，让白酒承载着情感与回忆，在不经意间走进用户内心。这种软广告形式不仅不会引起用户 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Guizhou Moutai has reported a revenue of 170.9 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 15.71% [1] - The revenue breakdown shows that the Moutai liquor segment, primarily consisting of Feitian Moutai, generated approximately 145.9 billion yuan, while the series liquor segment, including products like Moutai Prince and Laimao, accounted for about 24.6 billion yuan [1] - The production of base liquor for Moutai saw a decline of about 900 tons year-on-year, totaling approximately 56,300 tons, which is the first decrease in recent years [1] Group 2 - The company plans to invest around 15.5 billion yuan in the "Moutai Liquor 14th Five-Year Technological Transformation Project," which aims to construct 68 distillation buildings, 10 fermentation buildings, and 69 storage facilities, potentially increasing actual production capacity by about 19,800 tons per year and storage capacity by approximately 84,700 tons [1] - In the context of cyclical adjustments in the liquor industry, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai fluctuated last year, with market prices during traditional sales peaks like the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day not matching previous years, leading to an increase in inventory [2] - The finished liquor inventory reached 17,760 tons last year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27%, the largest increase in recent years, while the overall inventory turnover days rose from 1,293 days to 1,316 days [2]

Core Insights - The current Chinese liquor industry is characterized by a "volume decrease and price increase" trend, with leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye seeing revenue and net profit growth despite a decline in overall industry production [3] - The competition in the liquor market is shifting towards brand value, with a notable "volume-price divergence" becoming the new norm, as consumer demand for premium and aged liquors rises while smaller brands struggle [3] - Regional liquor companies such as Gujinggongjiu and Jinshiyuan have successfully navigated the market by focusing on local markets and transforming into business consumption models, achieving growth and entering the billion-yuan club [3] Industry Trends - The trend of "light drinking" among younger consumers poses challenges for traditional liquor companies, which need to adapt by enhancing offline channels and addressing issues related to product shelf life and profit margins [4] - The phenomenon of "liquor financialization" is viewed as a superficial trend rather than a fundamental industry shift, with larger companies leveraging cultural elements to enhance brand value while smaller companies may face risks if they pursue this direction [4] - The liquor sector is currently experiencing a valuation correction, with stock prices near historical lows, making leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye suitable for long-term investment due to their strong cash flow and dividends [4] Recommendations for Small and Medium Enterprises - Small and medium-sized liquor companies are advised to focus on regional markets to establish dominance, transform into specialty wineries, and shorten the distance to consumers through direct engagement strategies like live streaming and private domain operations [3] - The example of Shui Jing Fang is highlighted as a promising player in the next-tier premium segment, leveraging cultural experiences and scarcity to strengthen brand recognition [4]

来源：雪球 如果光看白酒T9峰会 ， 几家头部大佬又是照相又是发出同一个宣言 ， 大家一定会认为他们是一 团和气 ， 大家是吃着火锅唱着歌 ， 其实表面和气 ， 背后摸着家伙 。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 我的五粮液要拿十年 五粮液2020年推出经典五粮液 ， 试图在2000带分上一杯羹 ， 虽然因疫情的暴发 、 价格定位 不准的原因 ， 最终失败了 ， 但是茅台的反击还是如期而至 ， 2022年1月18晚上7点 ， 发布 了茅台1935 ， 官方指导价1188元 ， 线下成交价1300 ， 酱酒热如日中天 ， 平台一瓶难求 ， 很多朋友如果抢到了都是哂图摆柜 ， 虽然我那时写过一篇茅台的1935抢不了五粮液 、 泸州老 窖的份额 ， 分析了香型 、 价格品牌 、 销售量 ， 其时也不是那么有底气 ， 五粮液管理层也感 觉到压力了吧 ， 曾总公开谈论要坚持香型自信 ， 原来五粮液有酱酒二万吨产能 ， 在五粮液的 官网上也有排列 ， 后来基本上雪藏五粮液15酱 ， 五粮液 、 泸州老窖守住了自已的份额 ， 但 是对于酱香型影响就大了 ， 原来的 ...

白酒龙头需求景气有望触底回升 上周五，三大股指盘中震荡下探，创业板指一度跌超1%，科创50指数跌约2%。截至收盘，沪指跌0.3% 报3342点，深证成指跌0.69%报10126.83点，创业板指跌0.87%报2011.77点，科创50指数跌1.96%，上证 50指数逆市涨0.17%，沪深北三市合计成交12225亿元，较此前一日减少近1000亿元。行业方面，半导 体、零售、传媒、汽车、券商、地产、石油等板块走低，纺织服装、银行、电力、酿酒等板块拉升， ST板块逆市活跃。 中信证券表示，资金风险偏好回升，围绕行业高景气度主题以及新概念主题进行展开，建议优先配置一 季报表现出众的行业主题方向。市场对美国关税的情绪影响反映已较为充分，随着美国与多个国家的关 税谈判逐步展开，市场风险偏好逐步回升。国内维护楼市和股市的政策持续出台对市场预期托底，随着 一季报发布完毕，市场进入一个较为主题躁动的时期。从主题环境来看，综合流动性指标和市场风格特 征，市场在一季报高景气的行业主题上持续布局，并对新的主题概念表现更强的偏好。 今日投资机会解析 战略金属或迎价值重估 5月9日，国家出口管制工作协调机制办公室组织商务部等部门召开打击 ...