2025 年 7 月 14 日星期一 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 告 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 美国本财年关税收入首破千亿大关单月同比暴增 301% 特朗普称对墨西哥和欧盟征收 30%关税 美参议院军事委员会批准对乌提供 5 亿美元援助 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩：将把对美国关税的反制措施暂停 期延长至 8 月初 加拿大推迟对美国铝、美国钢铁加征报复性关税的计划 我国天然铀生产新突破 "国铀一号"成功生产下线"第一桶铀" "十五五"期间我国汽车出口规模或达峰值 一线城市新房市场活跃度不断提升 美团即时零售订单量再创新高 马斯克旗下 xAI 拟新一轮融资 目标估值飙升至 2000 亿美元 2 年期美债收益率涨 1.5 个基点报 3.885% 5 年期美债收益率涨 3.68 个基点报 3.969% 10 年期美债收益率涨 6.15 个基点报 4.409% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - CATL and BHP have signed a memorandum of cooperation to promote the electrification of mining operations and create a replicable model for green transformation in the mining industry [1][2]. Group 1: Partnership Details - The collaboration will focus on electric mining equipment, fast-charging infrastructure, energy storage, and battery recycling [1][2]. - Both companies aim to develop battery solutions for heavy mining equipment and railway locomotives, along with corresponding fast-charging infrastructure [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The demand for critical minerals like lithium and nickel is increasing due to the rise of renewable energy technologies, driving the mining industry towards expansion [2]. - BHP has set a goal to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, positioning itself as a leader in the low-carbon transition [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The partnership aims to optimize battery recycling processes and promote a circular economy, establishing a more sustainable value chain in the mining industry [2]. - Continuous technological innovation is expected to create long-term value and drive the transformation of resource-based industries [3].

在政策标准方面，2022年出台的《海南省绿色建筑发展条例》，以地方条例的形式推动绿色建筑高质量 发展，降低建筑碳排放。同时配套制定《海南省城乡建设领域碳达峰实施方案》等政策文件，发布绿色 建筑规划导则、实施指南及评价标准等技术规范，构建了较为完善的政策标准体系，进一步明确绿色低 碳目标任务，推动绿色建筑规模化发展和零碳建筑试点示范。 7月11日，海南省住房和城乡建设厅二级巡视员崔在《海南低碳岛建设方案》专场新闻发布会上表示， 该部门通过完善政策标准、强化科技研究、创建示范项目、加强宣传推广四项举措，积极推进城乡建设 领域绿色低碳转型，助力海南自贸港低碳岛建设。 科技创新方面，据介绍，海南省2025年建设科学技术计划已征集14个科研项目，涵盖绿色低碳农房、智 能建造等多个领域。特别是组织实施了"热带建筑科学关键技术研究""海南零碳建筑技术体系与关键技 术研究"等省级重点研发项目，为绿色低碳建筑发展提供科技支撑。 示范项目建设成效突出。2024年3月18日，博鳌近零碳示范区正式启动运行，经过一年的评估认证和实 测，示范区已实现区域零碳运行，达到"国际一流、国内领先"水平，更名为"博鳌零碳示范区"。目前， 海南住建 ...

Group 1: Computer Industry Deep Dive Report - The report emphasizes the evolution of technology paths and the opportunities within the industry chain, focusing on hardware interconnection and scenario adaptation [10][12] - The emergence of supernodes is driven by explosive growth in model parameters, shifting computing demand from single points to system-level integration [12] - Key players like NVIDIA and Huawei have made significant breakthroughs in cabinet-level interconnection and cross-cabinet networking technologies, marking a competitive focus on high-density computing [12] - Domestic solutions, represented by Huawei's CloudMatrix 384, have achieved significant computing scale breakthroughs, surpassing single-card performance bottlenecks [12] - The industrialization of supernodes will reshape the computing industry chain, creating investment opportunities in server integration, optical communication, and liquid cooling [12] Group 2: Insurance Industry Commentary - The report discusses the implementation of long-cycle assessments for insurance companies, which aims to align long-term investments with short-term evaluations [11][13] - The new policy encourages insurance funds to enter the market, addressing previous barriers to investment and enhancing the role of insurance capital in the capital market [13][15] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from a potential reduction in long-term interest rates, which could optimize new liability costs and improve investment returns [15] Group 3: Tencent Holdings Commentary - Tencent is projected to achieve a revenue of 178.3 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth, with net profit expected to reach 60.2 billion yuan, a 5% increase [17][19] - The gaming segment continues to show healthy growth, with anticipated revenue growth of 14% in Q2 2025, driven by new game releases [17] - The advertising revenue is expected to grow by 17%, supported by AI-driven enhancements in advertising capabilities [17] - Tencent's commitment to AI is evident across its business segments, enhancing user engagement and operational efficiency [17] Group 4: Debt Market Analysis - The report describes the current "stair-step" trend in the debt market, characterized by a low interest rate and low spread environment [14][16] - The analysis highlights the importance of identifying small strategies within the debt market, as the overall market remains in a state of fluctuation [14] - Future developments, such as potential interest rate cuts and the resumption of government bond purchases, are seen as necessary to break the current market trend [14]

Summary of Meituan's Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Meituan - **Industry**: Food delivery and local e-commerce Key Points and Arguments Market Competition and Subsidy Strategy - Meituan has increased its subsidy efforts, particularly in South China, with daily subsidies reaching 160 to 200 million yuan, and a national estimate of 800 to 1,000 million yuan, to counter competitors like JD.com and maintain market leadership. However, these subsidies are expected to reduce earnings by 0.3 to 0.4 yuan per order [2][3][8] - The company does not have a fixed subsidy budget and adjusts based on market conditions, exercising caution to minimize unnecessary expenditures [2][7] Order Volume and Business Performance - In July, Meituan's order volume saw significant growth, reaching 150 million orders in a week, driven by summer demand and effective communication with riders and merchants [3] - The daily order volume for Meituan's flash purchase business has surged to between 20 million and 30 million, more than doubling year-on-year, primarily due to subsidies [4][21] Product Contribution and Growth - Among the 150 million orders, approximately 120 million are from food delivery, while non-food delivery accounts for about 25 million. The "Pin Hao Fan" and "Shen Qiang Shou" products have significantly increased their contribution, with "Pin Hao Fan" growing from 12-15% to four to five times its previous share [6][12] - The average daily order volume for flash purchase has reached 1.3 to 1.4 million, with promotional periods seeing numbers close to 2 million, nearing 60% of JD.com's peak order volume [4][20] Rider and Delivery Structure - Meituan has around 1.4 to 1.5 million dedicated riders online daily, with an additional 2 million crowd-sourced riders, of which 600,000 to 700,000 are active [14][17] - Third-party delivery services account for approximately 25% to 30% of total orders [15] Future Outlook and Market Position - Meituan aims to maintain a market share of 65% to 70% and plans to increase daily order volume to 20 million by mid-2026, potentially achieving this goal earlier due to competitive pressures [4][31] - The company is focused on enhancing its brand perception and user loyalty through targeted activities and subsidies, ensuring its position as a leading local life platform [27][28] Challenges and Strategic Responses - The entry of competitors like JD.com and Alibaba into the food delivery space has intensified competition, prompting Meituan to adapt its strategies to maintain market share [18][26] - Meituan has implemented measures to address fulfillment capacity bottlenecks during order surges, including limiting order flow to ensure operational stability [19] User Experience and Retention - Meituan's user retention is strong, with a high level of platform loyalty compared to competitors, attributed to its dedicated delivery model and service quality [29][30][25] Cross-Selling Opportunities - Currently, there are no significant cross-selling opportunities identified, but as traffic increases, potential for such initiatives may arise in the future [33] Additional Important Insights - Meituan's flash purchase business is evolving with the establishment of lightning warehouses, enhancing logistics efficiency and expanding product offerings [22] - The company is cautious about the long-term impact of aggressive subsidy strategies on its overall business lines, ensuring stability across various sectors [32]

阿里、美团、京东：业绩基本面解读&竞争近况更新 20250611 摘要 阿里巴巴 2025 年第二季度客户管理收入（CMR）预计同比增长 10%- 11%至 710 亿元，全年有望实现高个位数增长。淘天集团 EBIT 略低于 一季度，经调整 EBITDA 与去年同期持平，主要受 take rate 调整和新 业务投入影响。 阿里巴巴外卖业务二季度单量预计超 8,000 万，单均亏损约 4 元，总亏 损增量 80-100 亿元。三季度为竞争高峰，补贴可能翻倍至 160-200 亿 元，四季度预计维持 100 亿元左右，剩余部分延续至 2026 年常态化补 贴。 阿里巴巴预计全年 GMV 增速与市场一致，为低到中个位数增长；CMR 同比小幅上涨，高个位数增长；经调整 EBITDA 与去年持平或略增。外 卖业务通过策略性补贴保持市场份额，有望逐步实现盈亏平衡或小幅盈 利。 阿里巴巴 2025 年第二季度云业务收入预计约 320 亿元，同比增长 20%，主要受益于 AI 发展和春节假期延后确认收入。利润率预计保持稳 定，但未来一两年内利润率可能维持在高个位数，受国内大模型竞争影 响。 Q&A 618 大促期间阿里的表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing competition in the food delivery market, particularly between Meituan and Taobao, is characterized by aggressive subsidy strategies, with expectations that this "super Saturday" promotion will continue for at least the next two years [1][44]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent "Super Saturday" event saw a significant increase in consumer engagement, with Meituan achieving a record of 1.2 billion orders in a single day, including over 1 billion food orders [3][12]. - Both Meituan and Taobao have shifted from aggressive subsidies to a more controlled "drip irrigation" subsidy strategy, indicating a response to previous over-saturation and regulatory signals against excessive competition [4][6]. - The food delivery market's share in China's retail sector has been steadily increasing, reaching 11.4% in 2024, highlighting the growing importance of local and high-frequency consumption [14][16]. Group 2: Competitive Strategies - Meituan and Taobao are employing creative subsidy tactics, such as random free orders and time-limited coupons, to encourage consumer habits and manage subsidy costs effectively [6][7]. - The competition is not just about food delivery but also about integrating these services into broader e-commerce strategies, with both companies aiming to leverage high-frequency users for cross-selling opportunities [18][21]. - The financial implications of the subsidy war are significant, with estimates suggesting that total investments could reach hundreds of billions, akin to national subsidies, indicating a fierce battle for market dominance [27][28]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Analysts express concerns about the sustainability of these aggressive subsidy strategies, questioning whether they will yield long-term benefits or merely serve as a short-term tactic to boost user engagement [38][39]. - The future of the food delivery market is tied to the growth of instant retail, with predictions that the market could reach a GMV of 4 trillion RMB by 2030, making the current investments seem rational if the market expands as anticipated [35][36]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with companies like Alibaba and JD.com also adjusting their strategies to capture market share in the rapidly growing instant retail sector [30][32].

□ 南京日报/紫金山新闻记者 江芬芬 在刚刚过去的周末，外卖市场"硝烟再起"。美团、淘宝闪购、京东三大外卖平台再次掀起折扣狂潮，让 众多用户度过了一个"疯狂星期六"。 7月13日凌晨，美团发布最新"战报"：截至12日23时36分，即时零售日订单量突破1.5亿单，再次刷新历 史纪录。这场"闪购补贴战"的背后，究竟隐藏着怎样的商业逻辑，消费者、骑手、商家又扮演着怎样的 角色？ 用户狂欢："超级星期六"，高低得点个外卖 "快去'薅羊毛'！"7月12日17时，市民王悦的微信突然弹出一条来自好友的消息。错过7月5日"外卖补贴 大战"的她，赶紧打开各大外卖App，将各类红包优惠领了个遍。 美团打出"周六，快乐继续"的标语，在其自营的小象超市中，大量商品以0.01元的超低价出售。同时， 王悦家附近的知名餐饮品牌也加入了"神抢手"活动——平时售价49.9元的两荤一主食套餐，活动价为 28.9元。 最近几个周末，外卖订单激增，但刘师傅并不敢开启无限量接单权限，"否则单量会一下子涌进来，根 本接不过来。特别是很多家奶茶店爆单，等待时长经常超过半小时。" 虽然身处盛夏，但他舍不得休息，每天保持100单左右的接单频率，加上平台提高骑 ...

今年2月，京东集团正式宣布上线外卖服务。7月，外卖价格战再度升温。淘宝闪购、美团纷纷放出"满 25减21""满25减20"等大额无门槛外卖红包券，部分商品甚至"0元购"，京东外卖则宣布正式启动"双百 计划"，投入超百亿元扶持品质商家。 曾被认为格局已定的外卖行业，一夜之间上演了从"卷不动"到"杀疯了"的剧变。 "毕竟，'0元购'难以为继，跳出一城一池、一时一地的拉锯争夺，在更广阔天地谋篇布局、创新创业， 让商家有利润、骑手有保障、消费者放心买，在营造公平竞争环境的基础上实现多方共赢，才能推动行 业健康发展。" □悦连城 有观察者认为，这场史诗级外卖大战，正在重塑中国消费市场的底层逻辑，即时零售成为激发消费潜力 的新引擎，形成规模巨大的蓝海市场。 补贴大战从表象上看，是对即时零售市场、电商业务与流量入口的争夺，是平台之间供应链管理能力、 技术与运营能力的较量，但实质仍是变相价格战。 而这种"卷"的方式，早在共享经济时代便埋下伏笔。2017年，摩拜与ofo将共享单车价格压至0.5元/半小 时，随后ofo因资金链断裂，最终倒闭，摩拜被美团收购，共享单车市场被几家巨头瓜分。2024年，哈 啰、青桔等品牌在多地调价，1 ...

刚刚过去的周末 ，美团、淘宝闪购以及京东外卖等平台，掀起新一轮即时零售补贴狂潮。0元 奶茶券、满18.8减18.8等大额优惠轮番上阵， 多个奶茶品牌再次爆单，美团即时零售日订单 量7月12日突破1.5亿单。 不过，订单狂欢的背后，高盛研报"敲响警钟"，伴随外卖平台竞争 强度提升，平台利润或将被侵蚀。 "几分钟的时间里来了几百杯！"7月12日晚间，长沙一家喜茶门店的店员对财联社记者感慨 道。店员手边的出杯区，摆满了待取走的饮品。 HEY el t Th th an 2014-01-1 車 re 7 l No th t in 1 in n TP-2 1 一世 4 1 the t l = 4 1 ar Q 淘宝搜索 | 骑士免单 规则 | 助手 就在几分钟前，美团外卖在APP上发放了新一轮"0元购"优惠券。凭借该优惠券，消费者可以 兑换包括喜茶、爷爷不泡茶、蜜雪冰城、奈雪的茶等多个品牌在内的任意一个品牌的指定饮 品。 有消费者告诉财联社记者，这是当天美团外卖发放的第二波"0元购"自取优惠券。当天早上， 美团外卖就已经发放了一次大额优惠券，其中包括奶茶自取"0元购"，以及部分早餐的大额优 惠券，"比如早餐时段的曼玲粥 ...