Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of June 22, 2025, 14 A-share listed companies have released their mid-year profit forecasts, indicating a mixed performance with 9 companies expecting profit increases and 5 anticipating declines [1][3]. Group 1: Profit Forecasts - Saint Nor Biotechnology expects a net profit of 77.03 million to 94.14 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 253.54% to 332.10%, driven by strong performance in its peptide raw material business [2][3]. - Luxshare Precision anticipates a net profit of 6.475 billion to 6.745 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 20% to 25%, despite challenges from global trade dynamics [3]. - 13 out of the 14 companies forecast profits, while only one company, Ningbo Huaxiang, expects a loss [3][4]. Group 2: Loss Forecasts - Ningbo Huaxiang predicts a loss of 273.9 million to 369.9 million yuan, a decline of 151.09% to 169.12%, primarily due to a one-time impact from the divestment of its European business [4]. - Zhongce Rubber expects a net profit of 1.91 billion to 2.2 billion yuan, with a decrease of 13.38% to 24.79%, attributed to rising raw material costs and external sales challenges [4]. Group 3: Revenue Growth - Ying Shi Innovation, a newly listed company, forecasts a revenue growth of 32.38% to 57.1%, with a net profit increase of -4.65% to 12.49% [4].

A 股短期还会继续调整吗？20250622 摘要 A 股市场短期内面临基本面压力，5 月出口增速超预期回落，叠加政策 落地速度可能放缓，预计 7 月中下旬基本面压力或缓解。 A 股中报业绩存在结构性压力，部分前期盈利预期较高的新消费板块和 概念股可能面临估值下调风险。 海外地缘政治风险持续，伊核冲突等地缘风险对市场情绪构成压制，增 加了市场的不确定性。 陆家嘴论坛推出系列政策，央行和证监会分别在外汇、人民币汇率、数 字人民币、科创板等方面出台措施，对市场情绪有一定提振作用。 当前宏观环境特征为出口回落和经济弱修复，历史上类似阶段 A 股表现 偏弱，需警惕美元反弹及地缘政治对流动性的影响。 科创板和创业板放宽上市标准，有利于科技创新型企业进入资本市场， 但短期内对改变市场偏弱局面的效果有限。 短期行业配置建议均衡策略，关注科技（人工智能、机器人）和涨价品 种（有色金属、化工），以及低估值蓝筹（银行、建筑、交通运输、电 力）等防守型板块。 当前 A 股市场表现相对走弱，尤其是后半段，这符合预期。预计短期内仍将延 续震荡调整走势，主要由于导致调整的一些因素尚未完全消减。要结束调整， 需要更多积极的基本面和政策因素出 ...

Group 1 - The three major A-share indices experienced an initial rise, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index turning positive, while the Shanghai Composite Index's decline narrowed to less than 0.1% [1]

2025 年 06 月 22 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报 ——行业比较周跟踪（20250614-20250620） 本期投资提示： 比 较 相关研究 - 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 冯彧 A0230123080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 (8621)23297818× fengyu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 究 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 研 行 业 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共5页 简单金融 成就梦想 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。2 ✓ 房地产：2025 年 1-5 月全国商品房销售面积同比下降 ...

Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3400 points, closing around 3360 points, with trading volume shrinking to around 1 trillion [3] - The support level is strong at 3340-3360 points, which corresponds to the lower boundary of a previous consolidation range and the 60-day moving average [3] - The ChiNext Index nearly breached 2000 points, indicating a growing demand for a rebound due to overselling [3] News Impact - The Middle East conflict, particularly between Iran and Israel, has led to rising oil prices, with Brent crude oil experiencing significant increases, potentially exceeding $100 according to Goldman Sachs [4] - This situation presents a dual impact on A-shares: sectors like oil, gas, and gold may benefit, while export-reliant sectors such as electronics and home appliances could face challenges [4] - Domestic policies are supportive, with the launch of cross-border payment services and various financial opening measures announced by the central bank, which could benefit banks and digital currency sectors [4] Policy Environment - The central bank injected 1.4 trillion in liquidity but did not adjust the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), indicating a focus on targeted support rather than broad stimulus [5] - Policy easing in the real estate sector, such as the removal of purchase restrictions in Guangzhou, may provide some stimulus to building materials and home furnishings, but expectations for a significant sector rally should be tempered [5] - Key sectors like semiconductors and AI computing are receiving clear policy support, presenting opportunities during market pullbacks [5] Capital Flow - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of over 20 billion, while domestic institutional investors withdrew more than 60 billion, indicating a cautious market sentiment [6] - Despite the outflows, sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals attracted investment, with banks and utilities serving as safe havens [6] - The valuation advantage of A-shares remains, suggesting that capital may return once geopolitical tensions ease [6] Strategy for Next Week - A cautious approach is recommended, maintaining a position of around 50% to allow for flexibility [7] - Key focus areas include cross-border payment initiatives, oversold technology sectors, and defensive assets like oil and gold [7] - Monitoring trading volume and sector performance will be crucial for potential adjustments in positions [7]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货股指周报 市场或有反复，但预计大盘仍保持震 荡调整态势 20250622 段福林 交易咨询号：Z0015600 从业资格号：F3048935 0769-22116880 审核：陈小国,交易咨询号：Z0021111 周度观点及策略 基本面观点 回顾：上周大盘先扬后抑，最终小幅调整。四大指数震荡调整，中小盘股指跌幅更大。 此外，中长期信贷增长率由2022年8月低点震荡反复后2022年11月（10.21%）开始企稳回升以来连续上升至2023年月5 月高点(12.94%)，截止2025年5月，连续24个月回落至6.78%，继续创2011年以来新低。 风格指数方面，上周风格指数全线下跌，其中成长风格指数跌幅最大。申万行业方面，上周申万行业绝多数行业下 跌，其中纺织服装、医药、有色、旅游等板块跌幅居前。仅银行、通信和电子行业上涨。 经济：2025年5月制造业PMI为49.5%，较上月上升0.5个百分点。非制造业PMI为50.3%，较上月回落0.1个百分点。中 美谈判，双方90天内关税下降，PMI回升。从分项来看，5月产需回升，生产上升0.9%，新订单上升0.6 ...

广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 最近5个交易日，科创50指数跌1.55%，创业板指跌1.66%，大盘价值涨1.07%，大盘成长跌0.54%，上证50跌0.10%，国证2000代表的小盘跌1.84%，银行、 通信表现靠前，美容护理、纺织服饰表现靠后。 风险溢价，中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率，权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比，历史数次极端底部该数据均处在均值上两倍标准差区 域，比如2012/2018/2020年（疫情突发），2022/04/26达到4.17%，2022/10/28风险溢价再次上升到4.08%，市场迅速反弹，2024/01/19指标4.11%，自2016年 以来第五次超过4%。截至2025/06/20指标3.85%，两倍标准差边界为4.75%。 估值水平，截至2025/06/20，中证全指PETTM分位数53%，上证50与沪深300分别为65%、54%，创业板 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 6 月 22 日 地缘风险仍压制市场表现 ——A 股趋势与风格定量观察 20250622 1. 当前市场观察 风险提示：择时和风格轮动模型结论基于合理假设前提下结合历史数据统计规 律推导而出，市场环境变化下可能导致出现模型失效风险。 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 定期报告 ❑ 本周市场整体下跌，大盘价值风格维持上涨，小盘成长风格跌幅较大。具体 来看，万得全 A 指数下跌 1.07%，上证 50 上涨约 0.15%，沪深 300、中证 1000 分别下跌约 0.33%、1.63%，国证成长下跌约 0.92%，国证价值上涨约 0.14%。 ❑ 短期来看，地缘风险未见缓解，市场情绪转为谨慎，建议仍持半仓观望。在 上周周报中，我们认为虽然国内经济数据以及投资者情绪均有所回暖，但鉴 于中东地缘风险存在持续发酵可能，短期建议维持半仓。此外，我们也回顾 了俄乌冲突期间全球权益市场表现。从结果上来看，在局势尚未明朗前， ...

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities predicts that the A-share market will exhibit a fluctuating upward trend in the second half of 2025, supported by favorable valuation levels and policy measures aimed at increasing long-term capital inflow [1] Group 1: Market Valuation and Trends - Current A-share valuations are at a historical medium level and are relatively low compared to overseas mature markets, indicating a high investment cost-performance ratio due to risk premiums and dividend yields [1] - The overall market is expected to show a fluctuating upward trend in the second half of 2025, although attention should be paid to uncertainties from overseas and the pace of domestic economic recovery [1] Group 2: Policy and Capital Inflow - Policies are being implemented to encourage long-term capital to enter the market, alongside the expansion of equity public funds and supportive policy tools, which are likely to maintain a stable and improving capital environment for A-shares [1] Group 3: Sector Focus - Technology innovation is identified as the core driver for the new supply-side reform in A-shares, with the TMT sector experiencing a decrease in crowding and a recovery in first-quarter activity, leading to accelerated capital expenditure in specific sub-industries [1] - Investment opportunities are suggested in areas such as AI computing power, AI applications, embodied intelligence, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - Defensive assets like dividend stocks are highlighted for their protective attributes, with state-owned enterprises offering high dividend yields aligning well with medium to long-term capital allocation needs [1]

A股融资余额连续9日超1.8万亿元 东方财富Choice数据显示，6月9日至6月19日期间，A股融资余额连续9日站上1.8万亿元大关，其中6月18日达 到峰值18166.59亿元。 拉长时间来看，2024年2月至9月，A股沪深京三市融资余额基本维持在1.3万亿元至1.5万亿元的水平，自2024 年10月起开始抬升至1.5万亿元以上，11月中下旬站上1.8万亿元关卡。 今年以来，A股融资余额有所波动，3月中下旬曾一度冲至1.9万亿元的高位，4月中旬至6月初又回落至1.8万亿 元以下，直至6月9日再次站上1.8万亿元。 从杠杆资金每日买入动能来看，6月9日至6月19日期间，连续9个交易日融资资金单日买入额超过1000亿元，其 中6月10日融资买入额高达1267.5亿元，成为近两周峰值。 从融资资金单日净买入额来看，本周前三天（6月16日至6月18日）为净买入，这三日的净买入额分别为55.92 亿元、52.71亿元、13.39亿元；而6月19日则偿还额大于买入额，净买入额为-74.79亿元。 近期，杠杆资金持续活跃。根据交易所披露的最新数据，截至6月19日，A股沪深京三市融资余额连续9日 站上1.8万亿元大关，相比 ...