广发证券发布研报称，今年财政发力整体前置，下半年预计财政继续保持积极，政府部门债务增速可能 带动整体债务增速有所上行。区域上，江苏、山东、四川等经济大省地方财政发力更为明显，浙江、山 东、福建等省份上市公司ROIC处于较高水平。看好区域经济阿尔法优质城商行，重点关注青岛银行 (002948.SZ)、宁波银行(002142.SZ)、招商银行(600036.SH)等。 资产流动性和配置展望： (1)跨境流动性转折决定国内资产流动性方向性转折。考虑到美债、美元短期压力较大，预计考虑汇率 变动后人民币资产回报率将继续占优，跨境资金回流有望加速。(2)实体回报率与当前1.6%的无风险利 率相比已处于相对低位，风险资产回报率处于高位，预计资金逐步向风险资产(如信用债、股票)转移。 行业景气度展望： 规模，预计资负压力在三四季度逐步缓和，25年、26年生息资产同比增速分别为7.86%、7.80%，25年 风险资产加权增速小幅回升。息差，预计收窄幅度将逐步趋缓。中收，全年增长有望回正。非息，预计 三季度债市维持窄幅震荡格局，四季度在高基数下债市利率可能出现又一轮向上回调，投资依赖度和交 易能力可能是25年银行业绩的最大扰动项 ...

I'd love him to resign if he wanted to. He's done lousy job. Look, uh, if you were there, you'd say, well, you know, the United States is doing well.They have no inflation, and if they do get inflation in a year or two, we'll put we'll start raising the rates. We'll get rid of the inflation, you know, and do other things. Uh, Biden had the worst inflation in the history of our country, 19%, but I think it was much higher than that.Frankly, they say 19%, they say. I think it's a lot higher than that. And we ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要： 从市场情绪而言，上周伊以冲突进一步平息，美国宏观数据表现仍然具有韧性，同时鲍威尔在国会听证会上的发言暗示了条件符合也可能提 前降息，市场对今年降息预期的预测达到了 3次，市场整体处于r is k o n的状态之中。风险资产普遍上行，铜强金弱的格局较为明显。 核心观点 1、上周金价回落，铜 价走强 贵金属方面，上周 COMEX 黄金下跌 2 .9%，白银 下跌 0 .34%；沪金2510合约 下跌 1 .5%，沪银2508 合约上涨 1.48%。主要工业金属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动+4.86%、+2.79%。 2、短期利多叠加，铜价向上突破 从市场情绪而言，上周伊以冲突进一步平息，美国宏观数据表现仍然具有韧性，同时鲍威尔在国会听证会上的发言暗示了条 件符合也可能提前降息，市场对今年降息预期的预测达到了 3次，市场整体处于risk on的状态之中。风险资产普遍上行，尤 其铜还面临着供应端的约束，比如有海外冶炼厂减停产，因此价格重心上行较为明显。 3、黄金继续回调 上周伊以停火协议生效，市场避险情绪快速降温。此后伴随特朗普再度施压 ...

A slowdown in the US job market will weigh on the S&P 500, offsetting any positive impact from the Fed’s interest rate cuts, according to JPMorgan strategists https://t.co/cEYOYFO5dg ...

Swedish retail sales fell the most in more than two decades last month, increasing pressure on the country’s central bank to lower rates again https://t.co/oZ6dnP2XDH ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or sector discussed Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is in a "wait-and-see" mode, with Chair Powell indicating that the economy is "solid" and the policy is moderately restrictive, allowing the Fed to remain patient [1][4] - Inflation is projected to rise to 3.0-3.3% for both headline and core PCE by year-end, influenced by tariffs and a tight labor market [3][8] - The Fed's future actions will depend on economic data, particularly regarding inflation and labor market conditions, with potential interest rate cuts forecasted to begin in March 2026 [3][8] Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The Fed anticipates that tariffs will increase prices over the summer, aligning with the report's view [1] - Chair Powell noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation could be either short-lived or more persistent, depending on various factors [5][10] Labor Market - Immigration controls are expected to keep labor force growth low, contributing to a tight labor market [3][11] - The Fed is monitoring per-capita economic health due to slowing population growth, which may present a different picture than aggregate data [12] Monetary Policy - The Fed is not expected to make preemptive cuts, with most committee members believing that conditions for cuts will be met by year-end [8] - Chair Powell emphasized the uncertainty surrounding tariff pass-through to consumers and the need for caution in policy adjustments [10]

Core Viewpoint - TMC The Metals Company has experienced a significant increase in stock price, driven by positive market momentum and favorable analyst coverage, despite some sell-offs in the latter half of the trading week [1][2][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - TMC's stock closed the week up 3.8%, outperforming the S&P 500 index, which rallied by 3.4% [1]. - The stock has risen 44% over the last month, largely due to bullish market sentiment and a major investment from Korea Zinc [2]. - Following Wedbush's upgrade of TMC's rating from neutral to outperform, the stock saw a significant increase in trading activity [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Positive macroeconomic indicators, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, have contributed to a bullish market outlook [4]. - A ceasefire between Israel and Iran has also provided a favorable geopolitical backdrop, enhancing investor sentiment [4]. Group 3: Analyst Coverage - Wedbush raised its one-year price target for TMC from $6 to $11 per share, indicating a potential upside of approximately 61.5% [5]. - The positive analyst coverage has played a crucial role in boosting TMC's stock performance [5]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The U.S. is increasing its domestic mineral production capabilities amid geopolitical tensions with China, which may benefit TMC [6]. - TMC still faces regulatory hurdles but the overall conditions appear to be improving for the company [6].

people respect our country again. You know, it's very important. I'm a cheerleader also for the country aside from everything else. The last thing they're going to do is nuclear. We had to hit them though. They were close to getting a nuclear bomb. Absolutely. We didn't give much notice because they didn't know we were coming until just, you know, then. And nobody thought we'd go after that site because everybody said that site is impenetrable. How are you going to deal with the $9 trillion that's coming du ...

I honestly think that investors today are more rightly focused on our fiscal trajectory today than they were 10 12 years ago. I do think the the the deficit and fiscal picture is potentially much more risky is potentially at risk of crowding out investments and and consumption because of the push in interest rates higher from the types of debt and deficits that we're seeing. When I look at American history, I see examples of how our political system was able to come together and really uh change our fiscal ...

i'm still waiting me too me too me too me too everyone keeps waiting for the housing market to crash but what if the market is already crashing out just not in the way anyone expected this time it's less 2008 style implosion and more frog in boiling water the market is fundamentally unaffordable gridlocked by design and slowly rugging the path to middle class wealth the bad news isn't that the market is going to crash the bad news is that it isn't so stay tuned to find out why my name is Nick and you're wat ...