风险提示： 理财赎回风险；转债转股溢价率压缩风险；转债正股表现不及预期。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 估值蓄力，坚守主线——转债市场点评 报告日期：2025.06.17 报告作者： 顾一格 （分析师），登记编号： S0880522120006 报告导读： 当前转债估值较4月初略有下降，性价比有所提升。建议通过布局自主可 控、内需发力和红利三条主线降低关税影响，提前布局优质底仓替代标的。 5月12日中美日内瓦协议落地以来，权益市场并未大涨，而是维持窄幅波动。 我们认为一方面是因为关税 摩擦缓和预期已经在4月8日-5月12日的反弹中被市场充分定价，另一方面，市场担心2018年中美达成协议 后美方单方面撕毁协议的情况再次发生。事实上，自中美日内瓦经贸会谈以来，美方新增多项对华限制措 施，包括发布AI芯片出口管制指南、停止对华芯片设计软件销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证等。在刚刚结 束的中美伦敦会谈中，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原 则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。紧张关系暂时缓和，但结构性矛盾仍未根本性解决。中美 之间的结 ...

Group 1 - The core task for China's economic development post-pandemic is to expand domestic consumption, especially in light of rising protectionism from the U.S. under Trump, which necessitates a focus on increasing domestic demand [1] - Distinguishing between consumer desire and consumer ability is essential for formulating targeted policies to expand domestic demand, requiring an understanding of the saturation point of consumer desire [1][2] - Consumer desire is characterized by its "non-satiation" nature, meaning consumers always prefer more to less, while consumer ability is influenced by income, wealth, and access to credit [2][7] Group 2 - Different categories of consumer goods, such as food, durable goods, and services, exhibit varying saturation points, with food consumption stability indicated by the Engel coefficient remaining between 28% and 30% from 2015 to 2024 [3] - The average annual per capita grain consumption in urban areas has stabilized between 109 kg and 125 kg from 2013 to 2024, with a decline starting in 2021 [3] - Durable goods like washing machines and computers reached saturation points in 2012, while the ownership of refrigerators and air conditioners saw a decline followed by growth due to factors like real estate development [4] Group 3 - The saturation of certain consumer goods indicates a need for high-quality development and product upgrades, while sectors like air conditioning and automotive still have significant growth potential [5] - The overall consumption saturation point in China is expected to decline due to accelerating population aging and decreasing natural growth rates [5] - Consumer ability in China shows significant disparities, with low-income households relying on credit or wealth smoothing for consumption beyond basic needs [7] Group 4 - To activate consumer desire, it is crucial to recognize the non-satiation of consumer quantity and the diminishing marginal utility, while also providing high-quality and innovative products [8] - A differentiated sales strategy is recommended to cater to varying consumer abilities, with high-quality products targeting high-income groups and cost-effective options for low-income consumers [8]

我们就应该树立这样的理念：解决群众"急难愁盼"问题的财政 投 入 不 仅 是 一 种 " 成 本 " ， 更 是 一 种 面 向 高 质 量 发 展 的 " 投 资"。正如2025年《政府工作报告》中所强调的，是"投资于 人"。 作者：宋笛 封图：图虫创意 中办、国办印发的《关于进一步保障和改善民生 着力解决群众急难愁盼的意见》（下称《意 见》）于6月9日对外公布，《意见》提出要增强社会保障公平性、提高基本公共服务均衡性、扩 大基础民生服务普惠性、提升多样化社会服务可及性等。《意见》中诸多条款切中大众的"急难愁 盼"，因此也获得广泛的关注。比如，《意见》提及"对符合条件的高校毕业生、就业困难人员等予 以社会保险补贴""完善最低工资标准调整机制，合理提高最低工资标准""推行由常住地提供基本公 共服务""用5年左右时间，逐步实现义务教育学校标准化建设全覆盖"等。 《意见》的出台具有深远的意义。一方面民生是人们的幸福之基，《意见》的出台和有效落地无疑 能够进一步提升人们的获得感和幸福感。另一方面，立足中国经济的现实情况，及时有效解决群众 的"急难愁盼"问题，也将为中国经济筑牢增长之基。 中国经济面临的挑战之一是内需 ...

Group 1: Economic Demand and Investment - In May, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month (5.1%) [26] - Fixed asset investment showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in May, recovering from a previous decline of 0.8% [53] - Infrastructure investment rebounded with a month-on-month growth of 0.9%, while manufacturing investment accelerated with a month-on-month increase of 1.9% [60] Group 2: Industrial Production and Employment - The industrial added value in May increased by 0.4% month-on-month, recovering from a previous decline of 0.2% [66] - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased to 5.0% in May, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month (5.1%) [81] - The unemployment rate in 31 major cities also fell to 5.0%, indicating a marginal improvement in employment conditions [83] Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The temporary suspension of certain tariffs by the Trump administration is expected to alleviate external demand pressure, allowing for a better internal demand recovery [88] - The GDP growth forecast for the year is maintained at 5.0%, despite anticipated pressure on exports in the second half of the year [88] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and unexpected geopolitical events that could impact export performance [89]

Group 1: Consumption Growth and Policies - In May 2025, retail sales grew by 6.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 4.85%[1] - The government has prioritized "restoring and expanding consumption" as a key task for 2025, with over 20 specific measures introduced to stimulate consumption[1] - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy for consumer goods has been expanded, with the subsidy amount increasing from 150 billion yuan in 2024 to 300 billion yuan in 2025[2] Group 2: Impact of Subsidy Policies - The "old-for-new" policy has driven sales of five major categories of consumer goods to reach 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers by the end of May 2025[2] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a year-on-year increase of over 30%, indicating strong demand driven by the subsidy policies[5] - The tourism sector experienced a record high during the Dragon Boat Festival, with 119 million domestic trips and total spending of 42.73 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.9% increase year-on-year[10] Group 3: Long-term Consumer Confidence Challenges - Despite short-term stimulus effects, consumer willingness remains low, with only 24.9% of residents inclined to spend more, while 61.4% prefer to save[15] - Structural issues such as housing, education, and healthcare costs continue to suppress consumer spending, necessitating deeper policy interventions[15] - To enhance long-term consumption capacity, policies must focus on stabilizing income expectations and reducing rigid expenditure pressures[19] Group 4: Future Policy Directions - The government aims to improve income distribution and social security systems to stabilize residents' income expectations and strengthen consumption capacity[23] - Enhancements to vacation policies are essential for activating long-term service consumption potential, with new regulations increasing holiday days starting January 1, 2025[20] - Coordinated policy measures are necessary to create a sustainable consumption environment, moving beyond short-term incentives to long-term structural improvements[23]

□大河财立方 记者 徐兵 入夏以来，从龙虾节到露营节，从啤酒节到美食节，各地消费活动热度持续攀升，不只是夏夜烟火气的 回归，更是中国消费市场持续恢复、升级提速的鲜明写照。在此背景下，河南、福建、广东等地相继出 台提振消费专项行动方案，围绕稳就业、促增收、扩内需，释放出强烈的政策信号：消费不仅是经济增 长的重要引擎，更是畅通国内大循环的关键环节。 当前消费结构正在发生深刻变化，从吃穿用到托育养老、从商品购买到服务体验，消费升级趋势日益明 显。广东发放托育券、福建鼓励发放结婚消费券，河南打造"跟着赛事去旅行""跟着微短剧去旅游"的文 旅新场景，这些举措都集中指向服务消费的培育与壮大。服务消费的快速扩容，不仅关乎经济数字的增 长，更映射出城镇化进程中居民日常生活方式的深层变迁。 面对新的消费趋势，政策工具也在持续创新与升级。从直接补贴到结构性减税，从消费券发放到社保补 贴，从贷款贴息到带薪休假，各地政府正在通过多重路径激活消费动力。广东对符合条件的消费贷款给 予财政贴息，上海、贵州推动文旅、养老等项目通过基础设施REITs获得融资支持，海南鼓励探索春秋 假弹性休假机制……这些举措共同构建起更加系统、更有协同性的促消 ...

Group 1 - Israel has launched intense airstrikes against Iran, resulting in significant explosions in multiple cities including Tehran, Qazvin, Isfahan, and Zanjan, with Iran promising a "decisive" response [1] - The frequency of conflicts in the Middle East is closely linked to the increase in military trade orders, with historical conflicts leading to a substantial rise in military trade in the region [1] - Recent conflicts are expected to drive military demand in the Middle East, with military equipment demand and pricing both increasing, supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan," "Centenary of the Army," and "indigenous substitution" strategies [1] Group 2 - The military ETF (code: 512660) is the largest military industry ETF in the market, tracking the CSI Military Index (code: 399967), which includes core military enterprises in the A-share market [2] - The CSI Military Index aims to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in China's military industry, covering key sectors such as defense and aerospace [2]

钢材：市场情绪谨慎，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于2990元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3104元/吨。现货方面，根据昨日钢银数据显示，昨 日全国钢材城市库存369.11万吨，环比减少3.59%；热卷库存169.6万吨，环比减少3.09%，全国建材成交11.02万吨。 综合来看：螺纹方面，随着建材进入消费淡季，建材产销存持续回落，由于目前市场缺乏投机性需求，淡季弱需 求将持续压制钢材价格；热卷方面，目前板材利润优于建材，产销表现出较强韧性，市场担忧后期抢出口情绪退 坡后影响板材消费，虽然出口略有下滑，但是短期仍保持高位。整体来看，钢材目前供需矛盾不大，后期关注中 美关税谈判和内需刺激政策。 策略 单边：震荡 黑色建材日报 | 2025-06-17 市场情绪谨慎，钢价震荡运行 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：全球发运回落，铁矿窄幅震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格窄幅震荡运行。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于704.5元/吨，涨幅0.21%。 现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格基本持稳。贸易商报价积极性一般，报价多随行就市，市场交投情绪一 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' newly selected list of "Top 10 Private Enterprises in China" has garnered significant market attention, highlighting the vitality of China's private economy and reflecting five core trends in industrial development: technological innovation, domestic demand-driven growth, globalization, consumption upgrades, and corporate governance optimization [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The selected 10 companies include Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Hengrui Medicine, Ctrip, and Anta, representing a complete ecosystem of China's new economy [3] - Tencent and Alibaba dominate the digital economy, with Tencent's fintech and enterprise services accounting for 34% of its revenue, while Alibaba's cloud computing business has achieved profitability for eight consecutive quarters [3] - BYD and Xiaomi serve as the dual engines of China's intelligent manufacturing, with BYD surpassing Tesla in electric vehicle sales and Xiaomi holding a 14.1% global market share in smartphones [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - The average compound annual growth rate of revenue for these 10 companies over the past five years is 19.8%, significantly outpacing other constituents of the MSCI China Index [5] - Meituan's takeout business shows stable growth, with new business losses narrowing to 4.8 billion yuan, while NetEase's overseas gaming revenue exceeds 35%, showcasing its strong cross-cultural operational capabilities [5] - The average R&D intensity of the top 10 companies is 8.2% of revenue, with Hengrui Medicine's R&D investment reaching 28%, indicating a strong commitment to future growth [5] Group 3: Valuation Insights - The average price-to-earnings ratio of these companies is 16 times, representing a 20% discount compared to their historical average [7] - Midea Group's dividend yield has risen to 4.5%, while Anta Sports' operating cash flow increased by 32% year-on-year, and Ctrip's total bookings have recovered to 1.3 times the level of 2019 [7] - Compared to U.S. tech giants, the PEG ratio of China's top 10 shows significant advantages, particularly in the commercialization of AI, with Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen and Tencent's Hunyuan large model entering large-scale application phases [7] Group 4: Policy Environment - The top 10 companies benefit from favorable national policies, including the introduction of digital economy promotion regulations, continued tax exemptions for new energy vehicle purchases until 2027, and the expansion of green channels for innovative drug and medical device approvals [9] - The expansion of the Hong Kong Stock Connect and the reform of the A-share registration system have improved the financing environment for private enterprises, with estimated annual incremental capital inflows exceeding 80 billion yuan through these channels [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - These leading enterprises are expected to continue driving industrial transformation, with Tencent exploring virtual and real integration, Alibaba repositioning in the AI large model era, BYD's intelligent transformation, and Meituan's commercialization of drone delivery [11] - As the demand for wealth management among Chinese residents surges, these quality assets are poised to become key targets for both domestic and foreign capital allocation [11] Group 6: Notable Exclusion - Notably, Huawei is absent from Goldman Sachs' list of "Top 10 Private Enterprises in China" as it is not a publicly listed company, which is a criterion for inclusion [13]

Group 1: Economic Growth and Institutional Framework - China's manufacturing sector has surpassed 30% of the global share, indicating a transition from a manufacturing giant to a strong industrial system [1] - Sustainable long-term economic growth requires a foundation of institutional civilization, necessitating the establishment of a robust institutional framework [1] - Three strategic pillars for economic development include enhancing the rule of law in the market economy, reforming income distribution to stabilize consumption, and promoting a higher level of institutional openness [1][2] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Consumption Confidence - The challenge of expanding domestic demand is rooted in insufficient institutional incentives rather than a lack of consumption capacity [2] - A fair and sustainable income distribution system is essential, aiming to increase the proportion of the middle-income group and unlock structural consumption potential [2] - Enhancing policy transparency and stability is crucial for restoring consumer confidence, requiring a macroeconomic framework that ensures predictability for residents [2] Group 3: Global Trade and Open Economy - China's role in the global economy is shifting from being embedded to actively participating in the reconstruction of global rules [3] - The focus should be on creating a new open economy structure that balances maintaining an open world economy with striving for international rule-making power [3] - Efforts should be made to establish a more inclusive and equitable version of global trade rules, particularly in the context of US-China economic interactions [3] Group 4: Financial System Evolution - The financial system is evolving from a traditional "financing intermediary" to a "resource allocation hub" and "institutional civilization promoter" [5] - Financial systems play a critical role in market efficiency, wealth distribution, and governance transparency [4] - The modern value of finance encompasses its role as a foundational institution, a resource allocation mechanism, a wealth management system, and a carrier of civilization [4] Group 5: Institutional and Civilizational Development - The next phase of China's economic growth will depend on the evolution of its institutional system and the rational reconstruction of social values [6] - Financial systems should be viewed as foundational to market fairness and modern civilization rather than as a source of economic issues [6] - Continuous reforms will drive China towards a new stage characterized by institutional maturity and shared civilizational consensus [6]