研究所 宏观研究 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email : yuanye@cnpsec. com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email : yuanxiheng@cnpsec. com 近期研究报告 《出口展现韧性,中美谈判进展或促 风险偏好修复》 - 2025.06.10 "以旧换新"蓄动力,"过境免签"新亮点 投资要点 5月经济整体运行平稳。按照生产法测算,5月经济增速或在5.5% 左右. 持平前值:从供需两端来看,供需均边际改善,供需缺口小幅 收窄;从增长动能来看,需求改善主要是消费提振,投资和出口边际 放缓,符合我们前期判断,外部不确定性冲击市场微观主体决策,对 生产和投资产生收缩压力,且房地产市场仍处于深度调整期,房价尚 未止跌企稳,房地产投资跌幅并未改善,持续拖累投资增速。而供给 端边际改善主要源自服务生产边际回暖。 向后看,二季度短期宏观环境的主要矛盾是美国关税政策,冲击 市场微观主体投资决策,对生产和投资影响或持续存在,二季度经济 增速或小幅边际放缓,预计在 5.2%-5.3%左右;进入三季度美关税政 策影响或逐步减弱 ...

短短 一周 后， 公司便 急不可耐 的 向 新泽西法院提交了 破产重组申请 ， 给 市场扔 下 了 一枚 重磅 炸弹 。 在破产 文件中， 公司 其负债超过 3亿美元 ， 员工 仅剩 85 人 。而今年年初，公司人数 还 超过 500 人。 | -广告 | | --- | 关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤储能 资讯~ 今年 5月29日，美国储能系统集成巨头 Powin 突然 宣布： 若业务无改善， 将在两个月内裁 员 并 关闭公司。 Powin 成立于 1989年，2016年正式转战储能赛道，短短2年便 位列全球储能集成商第一梯队 ，一 度成为 美国第三 的 储能集成商 。 但 宁德的一纸诉状 早已 将这家巨头的遮羞布一把扯了下来。 作为 Powin的电池供应商， 宁德时代 于2024年8月向香港国际仲裁中心提起诉讼，指控Powin拖欠 2022年两批电池货款共计 3.1亿元人民币 。 更离谱的是，此前宁德时代曾委托三方调查公司于 2024年7月实地走访Powin在中国的办公室和仓 库，却发现早已人去楼空。 除了宁德时代之外，还有五十多家 Powin 债权人可能面 ...

Group 1 - Trump Group announced the launch of a mobile service called "Trump Mobile" and a new smartphone priced at $499, aimed to commemorate the 10th anniversary of Trump's presidential campaign announcement [1] - The mobile service offers a $47.45 monthly 5G plan with unlimited calls, texts, and data, along with roadside assistance and telehealth benefits, claiming coverage comparable to the top three U.S. carriers [1] - The new smartphone, named "T1," features a gold metal casing, runs on Android 15, and includes specifications such as a 6.8-inch AMOLED screen, 16MP selfie camera, 50MP main camera, 12GB RAM, and 256GB storage, with a planned release in August [1] Group 2 - Eric Trump stated that the new phone and service align with his father's policies to promote American manufacturing and jobs, indicating a competitive stance against Apple [2] - Trump has previously pressured Apple to move its manufacturing from China and India back to the U.S., threatening tariffs if they do not comply [4] - Apple has a well-established supply chain in China, with over 80% of its suppliers based there, making it challenging for the company to shift production back to the U.S. [5] Group 3 - Only one company, Purism, currently produces smartphones in the U.S., with its Liberty phone priced at $1999, highlighting the difficulty of manufacturing at a lower price point domestically [6] - Eric Trump hinted that initial production of the phones may not occur in the U.S., but ultimately all phones are expected to be manufactured domestically [6] - Trump Group's business portfolio includes real estate, hotels, social media, cryptocurrency investments, and now mobile telecommunications services [6]

中辉有色观点 金银：伊朗服软，金价高位回落 表 1：产业高频数据 | 盘面信息 | 最新 | 最新 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 上周 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | SHFE黄金 | 792. 3 | 794. 36 | -0.26% | 775 | 2. 27% | | | COMEX黄金 | 3404 | 3453 | -1. 40% | 3347 | 1.72% | | 白银 | SHFE白银 | 8858 | 8791 | 0. 76% | 8909 | -0.57% | | | COMEX白银 | 36 | 36 | 0. 00% | 37 | -1. 45% | | | 上海金银比 | 89. 44 | 90. 36 | -1.01% | 87. 21 | 2. 56% | | 比价 | COMEX全银比 | 93. 60 | 94.93 | -1. 40% | 91.25 | 2. 58% | | | SHFE 金 / COMEX | 7.21 | 7.16 | 0. 78% | 7. 18 | 0. 40% | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's foreign trade has shown stable growth in the first five months of the year, with a total import and export value of 17.94 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and exports reaching 10.67 trillion yuan, up 7.2% [1] - China's foreign trade performance exceeds market expectations, indicating that Chinese enterprises have effectively countered external shocks through technological innovation and market diversification [1][2] - The structural upgrade of "Made in China" is evident, with a focus on green, low-carbon, and intelligent products gaining attention, enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese exports [1][3] Group 2 - The global manufacturing industry is paying attention to the structural upgrade and value creation transition of "Made in China," with increased automation reinforcing its irreplaceability [2] - A survey by the China-Germany Chamber of Commerce indicates that 55% of German companies believe Chinese enterprises will become innovation leaders in their industries within five years [2] - China's industrial policies, which draw from German experiences but are implemented with greater intensity, have significantly contributed to the development and innovation levels of its manufacturing sector [2][3] Group 3 - China has introduced various policies to promote manufacturing development, aiming to become a global manufacturing leader by the centenary of the founding of the People's Republic of China [3] - By 2024, China's manufacturing sector is expected to maintain its position as the largest in the world for 15 consecutive years, with a complete industrial production system [3] - Continuous technological innovation in China's manufacturing sector is leading to the emergence of high-tech, high-value-added products, further optimizing the industrial structure [3][4] Group 4 - Despite the progress, challenges remain in product R&D, advanced process design, and high-end production equipment, indicating the need for further improvements to transition from a manufacturing giant to a manufacturing power [4] - There is a call for significant technological upgrades and large-scale equipment renewal to enhance traditional industries using digital and green technologies [4] - The focus is on developing world-class advanced manufacturing clusters in strategic sectors such as rail transportation, smart connected vehicles, and renewable energy [4]

Group 1 - The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region has established an Advanced Manufacturing Cluster Alliance to enhance collaboration among Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Shanghai, aiming to cultivate world-class advanced manufacturing clusters [1][2] - The alliance will focus on key sectors such as aerospace, biomedicine, integrated circuits, new materials, and high-end equipment, contributing to the modernization of the industrial system in the YRD [1][2] - As of now, the YRD has formed 26 national-level advanced manufacturing clusters, accounting for 32.5% of the total in China [2] Group 2 - The YRD provinces and city are implementing a policy system that includes targeted funding and tailored development plans for key clusters, enhancing inter-provincial cooperation [2] - Zhejiang has organized a series of matchmaking events, totaling 956 activities, which have facilitated financing of 476.2 billion yuan [2] - Shanghai has become a unique hub for shipbuilding, hosting multiple national-level innovation platforms, while Anhui is leveraging significant events to attract industrial investment [2]

Group 1: Digital Transformation and Manufacturing Development - Henan Province is accelerating digital transformation to promote high-quality development in manufacturing, with significant achievements in optimizing industrial structure and modernizing industrial chains [1] - The province has diagnosed digital transformation for 18,000 enterprises, achieving an 87% coverage rate of intelligent application scenarios, and established 1,362 provincial-level smart workshops and factories [1][2] - The government aims to enhance the manufacturing sector through five major actions, including comprehensive digital transformation, upgrading traditional industries, and cultivating advanced manufacturing clusters [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Industry Support - In 2024, the added value of traditional pillar industries in Henan is expected to grow by 6.7%, accelerating by 5.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - The financial system in Henan has increased medium- and long-term loans to the manufacturing sector by 7.18% year-on-year, surpassing the growth rate of other loans by 0.34 percentage points [3] - The provincial financial office plans to strengthen capital support for the manufacturing sector to facilitate high-quality development and the construction of a strong manufacturing province [3]

美国6月纽约联储制造业就业指数 4.7，前值-5.1。 ...

美国6月纽约联储制造业物价获得指数 26.6，前值22.9。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing index for New York State in June reported a value of -16.0, significantly lower than the forecasted -6.0, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] Group 1 - The actual manufacturing index of -16.0 suggests a decline in manufacturing activity compared to previous months [1] - The forecasted index was -6.0, indicating that the actual performance was much worse than expected [1]