最近沃勒、鲍曼这些美联储大佬接二连三放话"7月可能降息"，连鲍威尔在国会都松了口。现在期货市场押注年内降息60个基点，比一周前又多押了15个 基点。道理很简单：降息预期一升温，债券价格就涨，收益率自然往下掉，交易员算的就是这个账。 第二股：中东停火+油价"神助攻" 特朗普突然宣布伊朗以色列停火，国际油价唰地跌了，通胀压力暂时缓解。再加上美国消费者信心数据爆冷，市场马上觉得"经济降温"剧本要上演，资金 就往美债里钻，推着收益率往下走。 老铁们，我是帮主郑重，在财经圈摸爬滚打20年，专做中长线的老炮儿。最近美债市场可有点热闹——交易员砸了3800万美金押注10年期收益率跌到 4%，这事儿得掰开了揉碎了聊。咱今儿就说说，这4%的坎儿背后，到底藏着哪些门道？ 先看交易员咋出牌：真金白银押注"跌跌不休" 上周五到周一，8月到期的10年期美债看涨期权突然火了，光权利金就涌进3800万美金。啥概念？就像一群老江湖集体买保险，赌收益率从现在4.3%跌到 4%。要是真跌到位，那可是自打4月特朗普搞关税突袭以来的最低位，直接把5月涨到4.6%的那波猛劲儿给"掰弯"了。 更有意思的是，周一有笔1000万的大单，直接锁定了行权价11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing volatility in palm oil futures, highlighting the market's struggle between bullish and bearish sentiments, and the challenges in addressing supply pressures [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The palm oil futures market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, leading to uncertainty about whether the market will rebound or reverse [1] - Supply pressures in the market are significant, raising questions about how these challenges can be effectively managed [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the resolution of supply pressures will be crucial in determining the future direction of palm oil prices [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring developments that could influence the balance between supply and demand in the palm oil sector [1]

Group 1 - The core argument presented by the expert Carol is that if Israel attacks Iran's oil facilities, it would significantly harm China, which relies on Iran for 12% of its oil supply, particularly affecting refineries in Shandong that depend on Iranian oil for 95% of their needs [1] - The suggestion overlooks critical factors, such as Iran's potential retaliation by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil transport, affecting 30% of the world's oil supply and impacting countries like Japan and South Korea that rely on this route for 90% and 88% of their oil imports respectively [3] - China has diversified its oil supply sources, with increased imports from Canada and strategic reserves that can last for three months, along with collaborations in renewable energy projects with Saudi Arabia, indicating preparedness for potential disruptions [3][5] Group 2 - Iran's economy heavily relies on oil revenue, which constitutes over 60% of its fiscal income, making it unlikely for Iran to risk severing ties with China, especially given their significant trade agreements [5] - Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, oppose Israel's potential actions against Iran, fearing retaliation that could affect their oil fields, while the U.S. is also concerned about rising oil prices impacting its economy [5][7] - The modern energy landscape indicates that simply cutting off oil supplies does not guarantee victory in geopolitical conflicts, as China's diversified supply chain and strategic reserves create a safety net against potential disruptions [7]

Core Insights - The report from Colliers International indicates that the net absorption of Grade A office space in Beijing reached 32,000 square meters in Q2 2025, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of positive absorption [1] - The demand in Beijing's Grade A office market is characterized by a "westward expansion and stable east" trend, with new demand concentrated in strategic areas such as Zhongguancun, Lize, and Financial Street [1] - The Q2 market continues the trend of "total reduction and regional differentiation," with Zhongguancun's net absorption surpassing 60,000 square meters in the first half of the year, achieving a record high for four consecutive quarters [1] Regional Performance - Lize Business District maintained strong absorption momentum in Q2, with a net absorption exceeding 20,000 square meters and a total of over 50,000 square meters in the first half of the year [2] - Financial Street remains a stabilizing force in Beijing's office market, with a vacancy rate of 11.7%, the lowest in the city [3] Market Outlook - The Beijing Grade A office market is entering a phase of deep supply-demand negotiation, with 2025 marking a low point for new supply over the next three years, creating favorable conditions for a continued decline in vacancy rates [3] - The structural changes driven by differentiated industrial genes are expected to catalyze a breakthrough, potentially leading to regional bottom opportunities and value inflection points in the Grade A office market in the second half of the year [3] - The technology-driven new cycle is anticipated to prompt more companies to shift from inefficient assets to high-quality assets, with rental adjustments allowing for greater flexibility in location choices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The core strategy for improving the government procurement market is to enhance the incentive and constraint mechanisms, continuously lower market entry barriers, and gradually open the market to all legitimate market entities, allowing information to be effectively priced in the government procurement market [1][4]. Group 1: Government Procurement Market Regulation - The Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Public Security, and State Administration for Market Regulation have launched a special rectification action targeting four types of illegal activities in the government procurement sector from June to January of the following year [2]. - The government procurement market is currently a vibrant sector within the national economy, with various ownership enterprises eager to enter this market to inject new vitality into their operations [2][4]. - The special rectification action aims to standardize the development of the government procurement market and create a fair competitive environment [2][4]. Group 2: Information Asymmetry and Regulatory Challenges - The government procurement market exhibits typical characteristics of asymmetric information, leading to moral hazard and adverse selection risks due to the regulatory bodies' inability to effectively obtain observable costs and contract costs [3][4]. - The existing issues in the government procurement market, such as discriminatory clauses and other illegal activities, stem from the information structure and constraints faced by regulators and enterprises [3][4]. - The effectiveness of the special rectification action will depend on addressing the underlying issues of asymmetric information and the incompleteness of commitments within the regulatory framework [4]. Group 3: Market Structure and Mechanism Design - To effectively capture illegal activities in the government procurement market, it is essential to address the constraints arising from asymmetric information and the imperfections of regulators [4]. - The government procurement market currently accounts for about 10% of annual government fiscal expenditures, indicating that the scale effect of the market is not fully realized [4]. - There is a suggestion to include monopolistic state-owned enterprises in the government procurement market to diversify the buyer base and enhance market dynamics [4][5].

2025.06. 24 作者 | 第一财经 钱小岩 这几日的中东局势如同过山车，形势急转直下，又突然停火止战。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普24日称，以色列和伊朗停火协议现已生效，警告各方不要违反协 议。美国东部时间24日凌晨，他在社交媒体上用英文大写单词发布简短帖文说："停火协议现已生 效，请勿违反！" 此前特朗普23日傍晚率先在社交媒体"真实社交"上宣布，以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成一 致，这场为期12天的冲突即将结束。其实在特朗普这一突如其来的宣布前，伊朗和以色列分别释放 出缓和局势的信号。 伊朗23日虽然对美国位于卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地发动导弹袭击，但伊朗方面提前通知了美方，袭 击未造成人员伤亡。与此同时，以色列也已向伊朗发出信息，称以方目标是"几天内"结束双方之间 的军事冲突。 西北大学以色列研究中心主任王晋向第一财经记者表示，以色列和伊朗停火是必然的结果，因为这是 一场消耗战和持续战，双方都无法承受长期冲突带来的后果，"特别是对于以色列来说，推迟了伊朗 的核能力发展，已基本完成了目标，而伊朗也通过对以色列和美国的反击，保住了颜面。" ▲伊朗外长阿拉格齐（来源：新华社图） 停火止战 据新华社 ...

以色列与伊朗持续12天的激烈冲突，在美国和卡塔尔的斡旋下停火。 这几日的中东局势如同过山车，形势急转直下，又突然停火止战。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普24日称，以色列和伊朗停火协议现已生效，警告各方不要违反协议。美国东部时 间24日凌晨，他在社交媒体上用英文大写单词发布简短帖文说："停火协议现已生效，请勿违反！" 此前特朗普23日傍晚率先在社交媒体"真实社交"上宣布，以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成一致，这场为期 12天的冲突即将结束。其实在特朗普这一突如其来的宣布前，伊朗和以色列分别释放出缓和局势的信号。 伊朗23日虽然对美国位于卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地发动导弹袭击，但伊朗方面提前通知了美方，袭击未造成人员 伤亡。与此同时，以色列也已向伊朗发出信息，称以方目标是"几天内"结束双方之间的军事冲突。 西北大学以色列研究中心主任王晋向第一财经记者表示，以色列和伊朗停火是必然的结果，因为这是一场消耗战 和持续战，双方都无法承受长期冲突带来的后果，"特别是对于以色列来说，推迟了伊朗的核能力发展，已基本完 成了目标，而伊朗也通过对以色列和美国的反击，保住了颜面。" 停火止战 对于这场冲突，特朗普将其称为"十二日战争 ...

安联预期调整引发的市场重定价已清晰显现。6 月 23 日美元指数上涨 0.27%，欧元兑美元跌至 1.1490，反映出资金对 "美联储晚于预期降息" 的定价。与此同时，10 年期美债收益率下行至 4.1%，形 成 "美元强、美债涨" 的罕见组合，暗示市场在经济放缓与政策滞后的矛盾中寻求平衡。 资产配置层面，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓量在 6 月第三周减少 23 吨，与 5 月黄金突破 2400 美元时的盛况 形成鲜明对比。这种变化背后是机构间的激烈分歧 —— 高盛仍坚持 7 月降息的可能性，而英国《金融 时报》团队则认为 "美联储不降息甚至加息的概率更高"。联邦基金利率期货的定价显示，市场对 12 月 降息的概率已从一个月前的 35% 升至 58%，但这一预期仍落后于安联的判断，预示着可能存在进一步 的调整空间。 安联的预期调整正在引发全球政策连锁反应。当欧洲央行在 6 月宣布第八次降息时，欧元区与美国的利 差扩大至 225 个基点，这直接推动美元兑欧元触及三个月新高。对新兴市场而言，这种 "美元强、欧元 弱" 的格局加剧了资本流动的不确定性 —— 巴西、印度股市在 6 月第三周出现外资净流出，规模达 47 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-6-24 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，5月官方PMI为 49.5%，较4月回升0.5，财新PMI48.3，较4月下降2.1， 为去年10月以来首次收缩。6月24日，美国宣布伊朗以色列达成停火协议，原油立刻回落。供需 端，农膜淡季，包装膜需求转淡，多数企业降负荷，下游需求整体弱势，后续新产能投产压力仍 存。当前LL交割品现货价7500（+40），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差56，升贴水比例0.8%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存55.6万吨（-1.3），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：L ...

2025年，国际局势的复杂程度远超想象。能源，这个关乎国家发展命脉的关键要素，在大国博弈中愈发 凸显其重要性。俄罗斯，作为传统能源强国，近年来却面临着不小的困境。西方持续的制裁、能源市场 价格的剧烈波动，让俄罗斯的经济发展受到了冲击，国库也逐渐吃紧。据俄罗斯官方公布的相关数据， 财政压力在各项开支下不断增大，而能源出口作为俄罗斯经济的重要支柱，其稳定性和增量显得尤为关 键。 普京（资料图） 在这样的背景下，中俄能源合作被赋予了更深层次的意义。2025年4月22日，中国国家能源局局长王宏 志与俄罗斯能源部部长齐维廖夫在北京会面，双方就中俄能源合作展开深入交流。中方表示，在两国元 首战略引领下，中俄能源合作成果丰硕，未来愿继续落实共识，推动合作迈向新高度；俄方则强调俄中 能源伙伴关系的战略性，渴望深化合作获取更多成果。这看似常规的外交会面，实则是俄罗斯在困境中 寻求突破、依赖与中国合作来缓解经济压力的重要体现。 而具体到合作项目上，石油供应成为了焦点。5月初，俄罗斯政府发布政令，将面向中国西部炼油厂的 石油供应上限从1000万吨提升至1250万吨，期限延长至2034年。这背后是中方提议将俄罗斯对华石油年 供应量增 ...