Group 1 - The U.S. government debt is projected to exceed $50 trillion within seven years due to the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" act and ongoing expansionary fiscal policies [1][3] - The current national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, marking a historical high, with the "Big and Beautiful" act expected to increase the fiscal deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade [3] - The act includes significant tax cuts, such as reducing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% permanently and raising the state and local tax deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000, which will result in over $4.5 trillion in spending costs over the next ten years [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury may run out of "extraordinary measures" to address the debt ceiling issue by mid-August, with a projected $1 trillion increase in Treasury bond supply expected in the second half of 2025 [4] - The International Monetary Fund warns that the act will significantly worsen the fiscal deficit, potentially raising the debt-to-GDP ratio to around 120%, far exceeding international warning levels [4] - The act's tax cuts primarily benefit high-income households, particularly those earning between $200,000 and $500,000, while drastically cutting healthcare coverage for low-income individuals, with an estimated 17 million Americans losing insurance [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年7月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：银行间主要利率债收益率整体延续稳中稍降，超长期国债及10年国开债仍然略弱。国债期货多数上扬，30年期主力合约涨0.11%。资金面充盈 宽松，资金价格进一步下滑。存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率微幅下行，目前位于1.31%位置，七天质押式回购利率下行超4个bp至1.42%位置。资金价格 继续向下，对政策维持宽松信心较为稳定；流动性充裕短期继续支撑债市表现。 5、盘面：TS主力在20日线上方运行， 20日线向上，偏多；TF主力在20日线上方运行， 20日线向上，偏多； T主力与在20日线上方运行， 20日线向上， 偏多。 9、主力持仓：TS主力净多，多增。TF主力净多，多增。T主力净多，多减 ...

Core Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a recent increase of 0.05%, with a cumulative rise of 1.44% over the past month as of July 4, 2025 [2] - Trading activity for the 30-year government bond ETF has been robust, with a turnover rate of 8.13% and a transaction volume of 619 million yuan [2] - The fund has experienced significant net inflows, totaling approximately 31.9 million yuan over the last five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [2][3] Trading Activity - The trading volume for the 30-year government bond ETF has seen a notable increase since May 8, 2025, despite a slight recent decline [2] - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 2.391 billion yuan, reflecting high liquidity [2] - The ETF's latest scale reached 7.607 billion yuan, showcasing its growing market presence [2] Fund Performance - The 30-year government bond ETF has achieved a net value increase of 14.13% over the past year, ranking 5th out of 410 index bond funds [3] - Historical performance indicates a maximum monthly return of 5.35% and a longest consecutive monthly gain of 4 months, with an average monthly return of 2.09% [3] - The fund has a 100% probability of profitability over a one-year holding period, with a maximum drawdown of 6.89% since inception [3] Financial Metrics - The management fee for the 30-year government bond ETF is set at 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [3] - The tracking error over the past month is reported at 0.041%, indicating strong tracking precision [3] Index Tracking - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, which is composed of bonds meeting specific deliverable conditions for the 30-year government bond futures [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant net inflow of over 630 million yuan into the 10-year Treasury ETF (511260) on the previous trading day, indicating strong investor interest in government bonds [1] - On July 4, 2025, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of over 450 billion yuan in a single day, while maintaining a loose monetary environment, as evidenced by the overnight funding rate dropping to 1.31% [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has shown a recent trend of first declining and then rising, primarily driven by a decrease in expected real interest rates, while an increase in actual risk premiums has provided significant offsetting effects [1] Group 2 - The 10-year Treasury ETF tracks an index that reflects the overall performance of Chinese government bonds with a remaining maturity of approximately 10 years, consisting solely of fixed-rate government bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance [1] - The long-term U.S. Treasury rate is influenced by expected real rates, expected inflation, actual risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums, with current supply-demand imbalances expected to further elevate actual risk premiums [1] - The volatility in the U.S. Treasury market is increasing due to policy uncertainties, leading market participants to potentially reduce their positions [1]

7月7日消息，日本30年期国债收益率上涨5.5个基点至2.92%。 ...

Group 1 - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds increased by 5.5 basis points to 2.92% [1] - The yield on 20-year bonds rose by 3.5 basis points to 2.405% [1]

日本30年期国债收益率上涨5.5个基点至2.92%。 ...

Group 1: Israel's Airstrikes in Yemen - Israel conducted intensive airstrikes on the port city of Hodeidah in western Yemen, targeting multiple locations including Hodeidah port, Ras Isa port, Salif port, and a local power station [2][4] - Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that the military strikes were aimed at "Houthi targets" in the region, including the "Galaxy Leader" cargo ship that was seized by Houthi forces in November 2023 [3][2] - The airstrikes involved intelligence support from both the intelligence agency and the navy, with dozens of aircraft participating in the operation [4] Group 2: U.S. Flooding Disaster - In Texas, severe flooding has resulted in at least 79 fatalities and 41 individuals reported missing, with significant destruction reported at a summer camp along the Guadalupe River [6] - Texas Governor Abbott indicated that the state is ramping up rescue efforts and emphasized the commitment to find every missing child [6] Group 3: Political Developments in Suriname - Jennifer Simmons was elected as the first female president of Suriname, marking a significant milestone in the country's political landscape [7][8] - The National Democratic Party, led by Simmons, formed a coalition with a total of 34 seats in the new parliament, achieving a two-thirds majority [8] Group 4: U.S. Fiscal Policy and IMF Concerns - The IMF expressed concerns that the recently signed tax and spending bill by President Trump would exacerbate the U.S. fiscal deficit, contradicting the organization's recommendations for deficit reduction [9][10] - The IMF highlighted that the U.S. federal debt held by the public is projected to reach 98% of GDP by fiscal year 2024, up from 73% a decade ago, indicating a rising debt level [11]

智通财经7月7日电，日本20年期国债收益率上升2.5个基点至2.395%。 ...

Core Insights - Since 2025, the London and Shanghai gold indices have increased by 26.75% and 25.82% respectively, with recent weekly changes of 1.61% and 1.39% [1] - The U.S. CPI peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and has since shown a downward trend, with a recent CPI of 2.4% in May 2023, slightly below expectations [1] - The balance of gold supply and demand remains tight, with increased investment demand contributing to a reduction in the global gold supply's looseness in 2024 [1] Economic Indicators - In June 2025, the U.S. added 147,000 jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% [1] - The average hourly wage for non-farm employees increased by 0.3% in May 2025, remaining stable for three consecutive months [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates twice this year, with a potential rate cut in September 2025 [1] Market Dynamics - The recent passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill by the U.S. Congress is expected to increase the fiscal deficit, potentially weakening the dollar in the long term while supporting short-term growth [1] - Central bank gold purchases, ETF investments, and a weak dollar are anticipated to support gold prices in the second half of 2025 [1] - The long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact due to factors such as a weakening dollar and geopolitical instability driving central bank purchases [1]