英国3月三个月ILO失业率、4月失业金申请人数及失业率将于十分钟后公布。 ...

特朗普（资料图） 《华尔街日报》称，美国总统通常会与美联储保持一定距离，避免过度干涉，保持其决策的独立性。美国总统特朗普在竞选期间就曾暗示自己 愿意打破常规，在利率问题上拥有更大发言权。美国广播公司报道说，在美联储维持利率不变的前几周，白宫敦促美联储降息，并扬言要解雇 鲍威尔。随后，特朗普软化了此前对鲍威尔的抨击，虽表示在明年任期结束前不会解雇他，但仍一再重申了对目前利率水平的不满，并敦促其 尽快降息。 据中国青年网消息，美国联邦储备委员会连续第三次宣布不降息后，美国总统特朗普当地时间8日在白宫椭圆形办公室抱怨说，跟美联储主席鲍 威尔打交道就像"对着一堵墙说话"。"我叫他'太迟先生'，'太迟先生鲍威尔'，这是他的绰号。"《独立报》援引特朗普的话称，"这太遗憾了，太 荒谬了。"CNBC称，谈及鲍威尔"不想降息"，特朗普对记者说，"我认为他不想这么做，可能是他不爱我。我觉得没关系，这是个疯狂的理由， 但生活就是这样。" 与此同时，美国副总统万斯当地时间5月8日在接受采访时称，美联储主席鲍威尔"这个人不错"，但他同时表示鲍威尔"几乎在所有事情上都错 了"。"好吧，首先，我认为总统对杰罗姆·鲍威尔的看法是正确的。杰罗 ...

Group 1 - Key Point 1: The U.S. President Trump is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, which may impact geopolitical relations and economic ties in the region [2] - Key Point 2: The Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions from its April monetary policy meeting, which could provide insights into future monetary policy directions [2] - Key Point 3: The UK will report on the ILO unemployment rate for March, the unemployment rate for April, and the number of unemployment benefit claims for April, which are critical indicators of the labor market [2] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Germany and the Eurozone will release the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for May, which is a key indicator of economic expectations [2] - Key Point 2: The U.S. will publish the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for April, along with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, including both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted figures [2] - Key Point 3: The Bank of England Governor Bailey is scheduled to give a speech, which may provide insights into the central bank's outlook and policy stance [2]

Overseas Macro - The US Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations[4] - The Fed emphasized increased uncertainty in economic outlook, with rising risks for both unemployment and inflation[4] - Market expectations for a rate cut in June have been largely absorbed, while the outlook for three rate cuts within the year remains unchanged[4] Domestic Macro - In response to US-China trade negotiations, China implemented new domestic growth stabilization policies, including a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point interest rate cut[3] - April CPI recorded a year-on-year decline of -0.1%, while PPI fell by -2.7% year-on-year, indicating weak price levels[6] - April exports grew by 8.1% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the expected 1.9%, driven by strong re-export trade with ASEAN countries[13] Risks - Potential risks include US tariff negotiations falling short of expectations, domestic policy effectiveness not meeting projections, and international geopolitical tensions[3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Overseas: US tariff negotiations have made progress, with substantial progress in China-US economic and trade talks and a limited trade agreement between the US and the UK. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in May, and the market has digested the expectation of no rate cut in June, but the expectation of three rate cuts this year remains. Attention this week is on US April CPI and retail data [2] - Domestic: On May 7, three financial ministries held a press conference to implement a new round of domestic growth-stabilizing policies. The market risk appetite was boosted. April price data was weak as expected, and April export growth far exceeded expectations [3] Summary by Directory Overseas Macro - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% in May, emphasizing increased uncertainty in the economic outlook and rising risks of unemployment and inflation. Powell adopted a "wait-and-see" stance, and the market has digested the expectation of no rate cut in June, while the expectation of three rate cuts this year remains [4] Domestic Macro - Price levels declined again in April. CPI was -0.1% year-on-year, and PPI was -2.7% year-on-year. Oil prices and transportation items dragged down CPI, and core CPI remained flat. Industrial product prices were weak, with non-ferrous metals being strong and petroleum and black metals being weak [6][7] - China's April foreign trade data exceeded expectations. Exports were 8.1% year-on-year, and imports were -0.2% year-on-year. The trade surplus was $96.18 billion. The strong re-export trade, especially to the ASEAN market, drove the overall export recovery [13] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Most A-share indices rose last week, with the GEM Index rising 3.27%. Among Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index rose 3.38%. Among overseas stocks, the German DAX rose 4.46% [17] - Bond: Domestic bond yields generally declined, and overseas bond yields showed mixed trends. The 10Y-1Y domestic bond term spread widened by 4.88 BP [20] - Commodity: The Nanhua Commodity Index fell 0.84%, and the CRB Commodity Index rose 1.66%. COMEX gold rose 2.65%, and WTI crude oil rose 4.75% [21] - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index rose 0.38%. The US dollar against the RMB fell 0.24%, and the euro against the RMB fell 1.31% [24] High-Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: Data on urban congestion, subway passenger volume, real estate transactions, passenger car sales, and steel consumption are presented [26] - Overseas: Data on US retail sales, unemployment claims, bond yield spreads, and Fed interest rate change probabilities are presented [31] This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - This week, important economic data and events include China's April M2 money supply growth rate, the eurozone's May ZEW economic sentiment index, and the US April CPI and retail sales data [38]

等到今年第四季度，大戏才会进入高潮。 一个多月前特朗普宣布对全球贸易伙伴征收大幅关税，放话要平衡美国巨额贸易赤字。一瞬间全球贸易秩序、国际间商品物流和价格体系、世界贸易和投资 的资金循环都被打破。股市出现大幅波动，美元汇率下跌，长期美债下跌。股债汇三杀的局面逆转了过去几十年来，每当风险资产遭到抛售，资金会进入美 元和美元债券进行避险的操作逻辑。许多美国企业在发布一季度财报时拒绝给出业绩指引，因为他们无法预判剧烈动荡中的经营情况。全球投资者认识到美 国经济的例外主义结束了，这条航船正在驶入未知的水域，远处天空布满了不祥的乌云。 美联储5月议息会议决定维持政策利率在4.25%~4.50%不变。这并不出人意料，因为通过央行管理双重目标的狭窄镜框所看到的经济硬数据依然稳定。但是 议息决议中出现了这么一句话："如果大幅关税被继续实施，它可能造成通胀上升、经济增长放缓、失业率提高。" 美联储主席鲍威尔本可以直接说关税将 引发滞胀，但他怕会吓坏大家。这是美联储能对政府喊出的最大声的脏话，对经济发出的黑色风暴预警。 财经记者提问，"3月份预测今年有两次降息，没了吗？" "你今天不着急，下次该降息了吧？" "经济可能衰退，不能 ...

4月是美股近5年来最动荡的月份。 刚过去的4月是美股近5年来最动荡的月份。华尔街股谚有"卖在五月"(Sell In May)的说法，历史统计也 显示本月是美股全年表现最差的三大月份之一。在4月初对等关税引发资本市场巨震后不久，美国总统 特朗普决定推迟实施90天，缓和了市场担忧情绪。 近一周，美国和英国宣布达成协议的消息获得认可，特朗普也再次发声建议民众买入股票。不过接下来 的谈判进程依然并不明朗，而美联储在货币政策上的谨慎和潜在的经济数据波动风险，可能成为市场风 险偏好动荡的压力。 考虑到关税政策的影响，外界担忧经济将受到严重冲击。短期内经济指标暂未出现大幅恶化，随着订单 的增加，美国服务业的增长在4月份有所回升，美国供应管理协会（ISM）非制造业采购经理人指数 （PMI）从3月份的50.8升至上月的51.6。服务业占经济的三分之二以上，这显示支柱依然稳固。不过企 业为材料和服务支付的价格提高到两年多来的最高水平，这表明关税带来的通胀压力正在加剧。 美联储主席鲍威尔在议息会议后的新闻发布会上表示，"虽然特朗普征收的高额关税可能会增加通货膨 胀和失业率，但到目前为止，经济几乎没有显示出这两种情况的迹象，这让我也 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the generational employment crisis in Shenyang, where youth unemployment exceeds 21% and many graduates opt for "slow employment" [1][2] - The middle-aged demographic, particularly those aged 45 to 55, faces a higher unemployment rate due to skill mismatches in the transitioning industrial landscape [2] - The elderly population, making up nearly 24% of Shenyang's residents, often financially supports their children, with 37.5% of seniors transferring a significant portion of their pensions to younger generations [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the psychological impact of unemployment on young individuals, exemplified by a character named Xiaohua, who experiences stress and insomnia due to job-related pressures [3][4][6] - Xiaohua's family dynamics reveal the strain of unemployment, with her parents also facing job loss and relying on the elderly for financial support [13][19] - The narrative illustrates the broader economic challenges in Northeast China, where outdated industrial structures hinder job opportunities for both young and middle-aged workers, forcing families to depend on pensions [22][24]

关税影响或逐步在物价中显现。 本周三，美联储今年连续第三次将联邦基金利率区间维持在4.25%-4.50%。面对美国总统特朗普随后再 度施压降息，美联储官员在最新讲话中重申，当前的经济不确定性要求货币政策保持耐心，因为美国政 府的贸易政策增加了前景风险。随着下周的通胀数据出炉，物价可能开始显现关税影响，进而影响未来 降息的时间窗口。 政策立场坚定 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）7日以全票的方式决定维持利率不变，称通胀和失业率上升的风险已经 上升，经济前景进一步蒙上阴影。 由于关税担忧推高贸易逆差，一季度美国国内市场总值GDP萎缩0.3%，这是自2022年第一季度以来的 首次下降。市场分析认为，关税将使通胀压力从已经高于美联储2%目标的水平上升。与此同时，这可 能会抑制经济增长，增加失业率。但目前尚不清楚这一切将如何发展，特朗普不断调整关税和一系列贸 易协议即将达成的保证使前景更加复杂。 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，"尽管不确定性加剧，但经济仍处于稳固地位。"他并补充 道，"我们认为，目前的货币政策立场使我们能够及时应对潜在的经济发展。" 美联储"三号人物"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯（John Willams ...

*纳斯达克中国金龙指数小幅下跌。 周五美股窄幅波动，投资者等待周末重磅贸易谈判的结果。截至收盘，道指跌119.07点，跌幅0.29%， 报41249.38点，纳指微涨不到0.01%，报17928.92点，标普500指数跌0.07%，报5659.91点。道指周跌 0.16%，纳指周跌0.27%，标普500指数周跌0.47%。 市场概述 周四，市场对英国和美国之间达成的贸易协议表示欢迎，这是自美国总统特朗普宣布暂停关税90天以来 的首份协议。 据媒体援引消息人士的话称，印度已提出将与美国的关税差距从现在的近13%削减到不到4%，以换取 特朗普的关税豁免。 需求预期升温，国际油价反弹超1.5%。 *三大股指窄幅震荡，纳指平盘； *美联储巴尔：贸易关税可能推高通胀和失业率； 美联储理事巴尔表示，在预期的经济放缓中，美国政府的贸易关税可能会提高通货膨胀率和失业率。 中长期美债收益率窄幅波动，与利率预期关联密切的2年期美债跌1.2个基点至4.88%，基准10年期美债 平盘。市场定价显示，美联储有望在7月重启降息。 个股方面，特斯拉收涨4.7%，报道称，4月特斯拉在英国的销量被多家中国汽车制造商超越。 明星科技股涨跌互现， ...