Core Insights - The real estate market in China showed signs of stabilization in April, with new home prices in first and second-tier cities remaining flat, while third-tier cities experienced slight declines [1][5] - Shanghai and Dalian led the nation in new home price increases, while Ganzhou topped the list for second-hand home price growth [1][3] Price Trends - In April, the number of cities with rising new home prices decreased to 22, down from 24 in March, while the number of cities with rising second-hand home prices fell to 5, down from 10 [2] - First-tier cities saw new home prices remain flat, with Beijing and Shanghai increasing by 0.1% and 0.5% respectively, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 0.2% and 0.1% [2] - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities shifted from a 0.2% increase in March to a 0.2% decrease in April, with Shanghai increasing by 0.1% and declines in Beijing and Shenzhen of 0.6% and 0.3% respectively [2] Year-on-Year Comparisons - Year-on-year, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 2.1%, a reduction in the decline by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, with Shanghai seeing a 5.9% increase [3] - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities dropped by 3.2% year-on-year, with a decline reduction of 0.9 percentage points, while second and third-tier cities experienced declines of 6.5% and 7.4% respectively [3] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the "small spring" market conditions have passed, with a decrease in demand observed in April following a surge in the first quarter [4] - There is an expectation for more favorable policies to stabilize the market, as recent adjustments in public housing fund rates have not sufficiently stimulated buyer interest [4] - The real estate market is still undergoing a transition, with ongoing pressures in certain regions, indicating that further efforts are needed to promote stability [5]

5月19日，国家统计局发布的最新数据显示，4月份，70个大中城市中，一、二线城市新房价格环比持平，三线城市略有下降，各线城市房价同比降幅均持续收 窄。 值得注意的是，上海、大连新房价格环比涨幅全国第一，赣州二手房价环比涨幅居首。 国家统计局的数据显示，4月份，各线城市房价环比持平或略降，同比降幅均持续收窄。同时，房价环比上涨城市数量有所减少，新房价格环比上涨城市有22个， 比上月减少2个；二手房价环比上涨城市有5个，比上月减少5个。 数据显示，4月份，一线城市新房价格环比由上月上涨0.1%转为持平。其中，北京和上海分别上涨0.1%和0.5%，广州和深圳分别下降0.2%和0.1%。二线城市新房价 格环比持平，与上月相同。三线城市新房价格环比下降0.2%，降幅与上月相同。 从二手房来看，4月份，一线城市二手房价格环比由上月上涨0.2%转为下降0.2%。其中，上海上涨0.1%，广州持平，北京和深圳分别下降0.6%和0.3%。二、三线城 市二手房价格环比均下降0.4%，降幅比上月分别扩大0.2个和0.1个百分点。 值得注意的是，4月份，70个大中城市中，新房价格环比涨幅居前的城市有：上海和大连涨幅均为0.5%，并列第 ...

5月19日，国家统计局发布《2025年4月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况》。根据国家统计局数据显示， 2025年4月份，全国70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比持平或略降，同比降幅均持续收窄。 一线城市分化 上海楼市表现最为亮眼 四大一线城市之间出现分化，上海表现最为亮眼。4月份，上海新建商品住宅销售价格环比上涨0.5%，二手住宅销售 价格环比上涨0.1%；北京新建商品住宅销售价格环比上涨0.1%，广州二手住宅销售价格环比持平。 国家统计局数据显示，4月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比由上月上涨0.1%转为持平。其中，广州和深圳分 别下降0.2%和0.1%。4月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比由上月上涨0.2%转为下降0.2%。其中，北京和深圳分别 下降0.6%和0.3%。 "北京和上海房两地房地产市场仍有一定的支撑因素。"58安居客研究院院长张波分析，上海房地产市场表现得益于其 独特的城市地位和市场需求结构，同时也与强化核心区域新房供给有关，4月份上海新房市场在高端改善项目带动下 热度持续上涨。 更为积极的信号是，上海浦东一个项目刷新今年1-4月份上海新盘最高认购量和最高入围积分纪录 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector is experiencing a strong performance, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up, indicating a positive market sentiment driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Companies such as Rongsheng Development, Konggang Co., Shahe Co., and others have reached the daily limit up, showcasing significant investor interest [1] - Additional companies like Dalong Real Estate, Jintou City Development, and Huayi Family have seen their stock prices increase by over 5% [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - According to the spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, the real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization, supported by various policies aimed at halting the decline [1] - There has been a recovery in transactions in some first and second-tier cities, with overall stability in housing prices [1]

国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，在各项促进房地产市场止跌回稳政策作用下，今年以来我国房地产 市场继续朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进，部分一二线城市交易有所恢复，房价运行总体稳定。但也要看到， 当前房地产市场总体仍在调整转型过程中，刚性和改善性需求仍待释放，部分地区房地产去化压力依然 较大，促进房地产止跌回稳仍需继续努力。 ...

一、房地产开发投资完成情况 1—4月份，全国房地产开发投资27730亿元，同比下降10.3%（按可比口径计算，详见附注6）；其中，住宅投资21179亿元，下降9.6%。 1—4月份，房地产开发企业房屋施工面积620315万平方米，同比下降9.7%。其中，住宅施工面积431937万平方米，下降10.1%。房屋新开工面积17836万平 方米，下降23.8%。其中，住宅新开工面积13164万平方米，下降22.3%。房屋竣工面积15648万平方米，下降16.9%。其中，住宅竣工面积11424万平方米， 下降16.8%。 二、新建商品房销售和待售情况 1—4月份，新建商品房销售面积28262万平方米，同比下降2.8%，降幅比1—3月份收窄0.2个百分点；其中住宅销售面积下降2.1%。新建商品房销售额27035 亿元，下降3.2%；其中住宅销售额下降1.9%。 4月份，房地产开发景气指数（简称"国房景气指数"）为93.86。 四、房地产开发景气指数 | 表1 2025年1—4月份全国房地产开发和销售情况 | | --- | | 指标 | 绝对量 | 同比增长（%） | | --- | --- | --- | | 房地产开 ...

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 二手房同比增速明显放缓 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 因假期周数据通常低于正常周，本周环比与节前一周相比，而非与五一假期周相比。 分城市层级看，一二三线新房成交环比同样都在下滑，而一线降幅较大。一线、二线、三线环比分别降 32%、16%、11%。一线城市中，北京、上海和深圳分别下滑 28%、33%和 34%。二线的苏州和武汉降幅较 大，分别下滑 32%和 33%。 同比来看，本周一线城市下滑 10.5%，降幅与 4月的 12.5%差别不大。二线城市下滑 22.9%，降幅较 4月的 10.1%明显扩大。三线城市下滑 8.6%，降幅较 4 月的 17.4%有所收窄。 风险提示 地产政策出现超预期调整。以旧换新政策落地不及预期。 [Table_Author] 分析师：肖金川 分析师：黄晓曦 联系人：洪青青 SAC NO：S1120524030004 SAC NO：S1120524040002 邮箱：xiaojc@hx168.com.cn 邮箱：huangxx1@ ...

.01 楼市下行，房子难卖，急的何止是开发商炒房客，那些即将结婚、孩子即将上学的家庭，也在为买房着急不已，土地收入锐减，地方也在加大刺激力度。 然而住建部部长则表示，未来楼市的发展方向将会转变。2025年起楼市或将迎来大调整，强刺激即将到来。 房地产市场的变迁 先是2015年开始快速上涨，让年轻人望楼兴叹，只能降低品质租房生存。再到2020年疫情冲击，全国房地产开发投资以及房屋销售同比快速下行， 紧接着，银行信贷政策的收紧，房企融资愈发困难，多重压力下，近两年全国房地产市场经历了数次降价，一些三四线城市更是跳水严重。 持续性的价格下行并没有激起人们的购房意愿上升，反而加速买房子的信心下挫，持币者观望情绪浓厚。 也正是同一时期，房价的持续下行也浪炒房客群体心理发生了转变，纷纷加速逃离，加剧二手房市场挂牌量激增。 而多空双方的较量，一旦空方占据优势，想要逆转就没那么容易，即使这几年几次阶段性的政策放宽，都没能达到预期的效果，现在的房地产市场急需一 支"强心针"。 随着住建部部长释放出未来楼市的变迁信号，业内开始认为，2025起，楼市可能会迎来"大调整"。 .02 强刺激再度来袭 1.现房销售。 这几年利好政策不断 ...

3天前，已经很久没有消息的中粮鸿云在时隔3年之后，再次获得预售证。 最新取证的是8、9、7、2四栋住宅，预售面积27899平米。说是预售，其实中粮鸿云前期楼栋早就成了现房，第一期在去年都已交 付，如今获证的4栋住宅之所以拖到现在才办预售证，一方面是是因为中粮鸿云的销售状况很不理想，前三次取得预售证的12栋住宅 迟迟无法消化，另一方面，中粮鸿云当年是高价拿地，可是开盘后售价却一降再降，基本是亏本销售，大悦城控股也有观察市场走 势，寻找更合适销售机会的考虑。 中粮鸿云的土地面积有77亩，是大悦城在2021年经过28轮激烈竞拍后花6亿元拿下的土地，由于溢价30%，中粮鸿云的楼面地价就达 到了4677元/平米，而且还要配建幼儿园、生鲜超市等，可是中粮鸿云在2022年首开时，起价也才7300元，而且是精装交付，已经是 亏本销售，后期价格也始终没起来，整盘亏损恐难避免。 大悦城作为央企中粮集团旗下的房地产开发企业，进入昆明后发展一直不太顺利，最早参与的老螺蛳湾片区一二级开发，因为属于合 作开发性质，大悦城的参与度本来就不高，由合作方碧桂园操盘的隆盛府目前已经是不死不活的状态，合作各方矛盾重重。 中粮鸿云曾经以不到7000 ...

Group 1 - The real estate market in China is experiencing a downturn, with 58 out of 70 major cities reporting a month-on-month decline in new residential prices and 63 cities seeing a decline in second-hand residential prices in Q1 2025 [2] - The average residential price in 100 cities decreased by 1.7% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of month-on-month declines [2] - Developers are employing promotional strategies such as "buy a house, get free renovations" and "zero down payment" to stimulate sales, indicating a challenging market environment [2] Group 2 - Despite the downturn, many developers are only offering limited price reductions of 5% to 10%, raising questions about the persistence of high property prices [4] - A financial expert highlighted that the high property prices are maintained by a coalition of local governments, developers, and financial institutions, which creates a vested interest in keeping prices elevated [4] Group 3 - The excessive financialization and assetization of real estate in China has led to a disconnect between property prices and the actual purchasing power of residents [6] - Developers are hesitant to significantly reduce prices due to "price drop restrictions" imposed by local governments, fear of backlash from previous buyers, and concerns that large price cuts would deter potential buyers [6][8] Group 4 - Local governments are reluctant to see property prices fall significantly as it would reduce developers' willingness to acquire land, impacting government revenue from land sales [8] - Financial institutions also prefer stable or high property prices to avoid increased default rates on loans from both buyers and developers [8] Group 5 - The oversupply of housing in China is evident, with 600 million buildings and millions of new units entering the market annually, suggesting a long-term trend of supply exceeding demand [10] - Property price-to-income ratios in major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen exceed 40, while second and third-tier cities range from 20 to 25, indicating a significant bubble compared to international norms [10] Group 6 - Proposed measures to stabilize the real estate market include avoiding drastic price fluctuations, gradually deflating the housing bubble, introducing property taxes to diversify local government revenue, and increasing the supply of affordable housing for low-income groups [12]