6月会议还发布了对通胀、失业率和经济增长的预期。 | Variable | | | Median1 | | | Central Tendency2 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | Longer | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | Longer | 2025 | 2026 | | | | | | run | | | | run | | | | Change in real GDP | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2-1.5 | 1.5-1.8 | 1.7-2.0 | 1.7-2.0 | 1.1-2.1 | 0.6-2. | | March projection | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.5-1.9 | 1.6-1.9 | 1.6-2.0 | 1.7-2.0 | 1.0-2.4 | 0.6-2. | | Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：我们会尽最大努力做出最准确的预测。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：人们正在预测最有可能的利率路径，或者说可能性最低的路径。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：今天我们就改善沟通方式进行了高度讨论，包括对经济预测摘要的调整，秋季将就 沟通方式的调整进行更详细的讨论。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that as more data becomes available, the discrepancies in interest rate forecasts will narrow [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic data to adjust its interest rate predictions [1] - Powell emphasized the importance of data in shaping future monetary policy decisions [1] - The statement suggests potential shifts in interest rate strategies based on upcoming economic indicators [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the differences in interest rate paths among officials reflect the diversity of economic forecasts, including inflation [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔表示，终有一天美联储会变得更加有信心，可能会达到一个适合降息的位置；没有人 对利率路径的预测抱有很大信心，可以为预测中的任何利率路径提供合理的理由。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储在预测能力方面必须保持谦逊。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：没有人对利率路径的预测抱有很大信心，可以为预测中的任何利率路径提供合理的 理由。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasizes the importance of focusing on short-term predictions regarding the Fed's policy path, while acknowledging the challenges associated with long-term forecasts [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Federal Reserve Policy** - Powell suggests that short-term predictions are more reliable and should be prioritized when assessing the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory [1] - **Long-term Forecasting Challenges** - The Chairman notes that making accurate long-term predictions is considerably more difficult, indicating uncertainty in future economic conditions and policy responses [1]