超长债周报 情绪压制，超长债小跌 核心观点 固定收益周报 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月14日 30 年国债：截至 7 月 11 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 21BP，处于 历史偏低水平。从国内经济数据来看，5 月经济依然展现出韧性。我们 测算的 5 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 5.0%，较 4 月回落 0.1%，但是仍高于 全年经济增速目标值。通胀方面，6 月 CPI 为 0.1%，PPI-3.6%，通缩风 险依存。近期 5 月出口加速下滑，国内房价环比转负，国内经济依然面 临下行压力。我们认为，当前仍处于"反内卷"运动的早期，对债市影 响有限，随着 10 年期国债往 1.7%靠拢，债市机会大于风险。不过当前 30 年国债期限利差依然偏低，期限利差保护度有限。 20 年国开债：截至 7 月 11 日，20 年国开债和 20 年国债利差为 3BP，处 于历史极低位置。从国内经济数据来看，5 月经济依然展现出韧性。我 们测算的 5 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 5.0%，较 4 月回落 0.1%，但是仍高 于全年经济增速目标值。通胀方面，6 月 CPI 为 0.1%，PPI-3.6%，通缩 风险依 ...

2025 第（126）期 发布日期：2025-07-14 中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 号 | | 宏观指标 | 2025/7/14 | 2025/7/11 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | | | | 08:00 | 15:00 | | | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44371.51 | 44650.64 | -279.130 | -0.625 | | | | 纳斯达克指数 | 20585.53 | 20630.66 | -45.130 | -0.219 | | 中原期货研究咨询部 | | 标普500 | 6259.75 | 6280.46 | -20.710 | -0.330 | | 0371-58620081 | | 恒生指数 SHIBOR隔夜 | 24139.57 1.33 | 24028.37 1.32 | 111.20 0.017 | 0.463 1.292 | | 0371-58620083 | | ...

报告日期：2025 年 7 月 14 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评："反内卷"长期利好商品价格 今年上半年，我国汽车产销量首次双超 1500 万辆，同比均实现两位数增长。得 益于持续整治"内卷式"竞争，车企生产节奏稳定，压库存状况得到改善，产业 活力持续释放。竞争固然是市场经济的常态，但打价格战、搞"内卷式"竞争， 只会助长"劣币驱逐良币"。单纯向下"卷"价格，最终没有赢家。只有依靠技 术创新、产业升级练好"内功"，才能赢得未来。 重点品种：玻璃、钢材、股指 玻璃纯碱：玻璃期货大幅反弹。基本面，夏季检修行情逐步深化，供给收缩，市 场预期好转。上周玻璃小幅库存消化，市场聚焦供给端收缩带来的进一步成效。 数据方面，本周玻璃生产企业库存 5734 万重箱，环比下降 97 万重箱。纯碱期货 大幅反弹。数据层面，本周纯碱生产企业库存 186.4 万吨，环比增加 3.3 万吨。 综合而言，国内，玻璃纯碱都处于库存承压消化的周期，由于生产利润不佳，目 前的去库进程需要时间。不过，随着国内消费需求的提振，继续关注玻璃纯碱自 身的供需消化过程。目前供给调整仍在深化，关注以时间换存量消化的成效。纯 碱而言，总体供给仍有一些变 ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250714："反内卷"情绪推动，硅系价格走势坚挺 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/14 近期趋势 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,650.00 | 1.76% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 8,415.00 | -0.65% | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 元/吨 | 235.00 | 205.00 | | N型多晶硅料 | 元/千克 | 44.50 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 41,330.00 | -0.04% | | 基差 | 元/吨 | 3,170.00 | 15.00 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,650.00 | 1.76% | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,650.00 | 1.76% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,600.00 | 1.78% | | 不通氧553#（昆明） ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 7 月 14 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周五（7 月 11 日）沪指冲高回落，盘中涨幅一度达到 1.3%，收盘涨 0.01%，收报 3510.18 点； 深证成指涨 0.61%，收报 10696.10 点；创业板指涨 0.80%，收报 2207.10 点。沪深两市成交额达到 17121 亿，较 昨日放量 2180 亿。 沪深 300 指数 7 月 11 日强势震荡，收盘 4014.81，环比上涨 4.78。 【焦炭 焦煤】7 月 11 日焦炭加权指数强势依旧，收盘价 1524.1，环比上涨 41.5。 7 月 11 日，焦煤加权指数强势，收盘价 922.8 元，环比上涨 27.7。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：港口焦炭现货市场报价上涨，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1260 元/吨，较上期价格上涨 30 元/吨。 供应，焦化企业生产亏损，部分焦化企业降低开工负荷，近期黑色品种价格均有反弹，部分焦化企业计划对焦炭 提出第一轮提涨。需求，山西粗钢限产，钢材价格反弹 30-70 元/吨，钢厂目前利润尚可，唐山地区钢厂外采维 持。 焦煤： ...

交易咨询资格号： 晨会纪要 2025 年 7 月 14 日 | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/14 | 基于基本面研判 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | | | | | | | | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 | 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 氧化铝 | 燃油 | 多晶硅 | 尿素 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 铝 | 烧碱 | 焦煤 | 原油 | 沥青 | 焦炭 | 研究咨询电话： | | | | | 锌 | 原木 | 玻璃 | 0531-81678626 | 液化石油气 | 玉米 | | | | | | | 对二甲苯 | 二债 | 客服电话： | PTA | 中证500股指期货 | | | | | | | | 400-618-6767 | 乙二醇 | 工业硅 | 短纤 | 十债 | 公司网址： | | | | | | | 红枣 | 上证50股指期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range fluctuations, with an overall upward - biased trend in July and August [5][13]. - In the short term, aluminum prices may fluctuate with a slight upward bias, with the upper pressure level around 21,000 yuan [13]. - Considering the current off - season and weak downstream new orders, the spot premium continues to decline, which may put pressure on aluminum prices in the next 1 - 2 weeks. However, due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US trade confrontation, anti - involution, a 45 million - ton supply ceiling, and uncertainties in overseas mine disturbances, the downside space is limited. The range of Shanghai Aluminum 2508 in the next week is expected to be between 20,200 and 20,900 yuan [5][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a large - range fluctuation, expected to be upward - biased in July and August. Although the spot premium decline may pressure aluminum prices in the next 1 - 2 weeks, the downside space is limited due to multiple factors [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: New orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level fluctuating market [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The expected fluctuation range of Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract last week was 20,300 - 20,800 yuan, and short - term trading was recommended [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The expected range of Shanghai Aluminum 2508 this week is 20,200 - 20,900 yuan. Appropriate long positions can be arranged near the lower end of the range [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventory at low prices [9]. 3.3 Overall Viewpoint - **Aluminum Ore Market**: From August, China's bauxite imports from Guinea are expected to decrease. The annual import volume in the second half of the year may decline compared to the first half, with a risk of a supply - demand gap. The price is expected to remain stable in the third quarter and may turn upward in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Alumina Market**: As of July 11, the domestic metallurgical alumina production capacity was about 111.75 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 91.9 million tons and an operating rate of about 82%. There is room for the operating capacity to reach a new high in the third quarter. The 95% percentile cash cost and full cost are in the ranges of [2800, 3000] and [3000, 3200] yuan/ton respectively [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative production from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity was 96% at the end of June, remaining stable month - on - month and 0.32% higher than the same period last year [11]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1350 yuan/ton. Since February 2025, domestic aluminum exports have been growing, and although the growth rate has declined due to tariff disturbances since April, they still show resilience [11]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of the aluminum profile industry remained stable at 49.5%. The operating rate of the aluminum plate and strip industry decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 63.2%, and that of the aluminum foil industry remained stable at 69.6%. The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 61.6%. The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 54.0%, and that of the recycled aluminum industry remained stable at 53.6% [12]. - **Inventory**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 465,000 tons, a decrease of about 2% from the previous two weeks and about 41% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 156,800 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and about 8% from the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased slightly this week [12]. - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 550 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,500 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3300 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Expectation**: Affected by the frequent adjustment of US tariff policies, the commodity market is more volatile. The supply side is stable, the demand side is weak, and the spot basis has widened. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate with a slight upward bias in the short term, with the upper pressure level around 21,000 yuan [13]. 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The price of bauxite from Guinea decreased slightly, while the prices of bauxite from Australia and Indonesia remained stable. The price of alumina increased slightly, and the price of electrolytic aluminum was relatively strong. The price of aluminum alloy and aluminum rods also increased slightly [14]. - The overall supply of domestic alumina is in surplus, but due to uncertainties in the mine end and anti - involution, the downside space is limited, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 2800 - 3300 yuan [14]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum is supported by strong costs and restricted by weak demand. It is expected that the price of ADC12 will maintain a weak and narrow - range fluctuation pattern in July [14]. 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite decreased slightly, the alumina inventory increased slightly, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the aluminum rod inventory increased. The LME aluminum inventory continued to increase [16][17]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Situation - For the whole year of 2025, the domestic aluminum supply - demand is expected to be tighter than in 2024. It may experience seasonal surplus in July and tighten up after August [18]. - The domestic alumina supply is in surplus in 2025, and the year - on - year growth rate of production is expected to be higher than that of demand in the third quarter [20]. - The overall operating rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6%. Different sectors showed different trends, but generally faced downward pressure [25]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still relatively strong, but the strength has weakened compared to June. Aluminum prices may fluctuate at a high level in mid - to late July [30]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1260 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [37][38]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - For the LME aluminum variety, the net long position has continued to rise slightly. Since May, the short position has been reduced, and the long position has increased slightly since early June. The market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [40]. - For the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum variety, the net long position of the main force has continued to increase slightly. The long - position camp has remained stable, and the short - position camp has decreased slightly. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds has decreased slightly, and the net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has remained stable. The market may fluctuate at a high level next week [43].

截至2025年7月14日 14:43，智能车ETF泰康(159720)震荡调整，跟踪指数中证智能电动汽车指数 (H11052)下跌0.30%。成分股方面涨跌互现，天华新能(300390)领涨6.59%，天齐锂业(002466)上涨 2.98%，赣锋锂业(002460)上涨2.76%；思特威(688213)领跌2.58%，芯原股份(688521)下跌2.22%，比亚 迪(002594)下跌1.67%。 截至7月11日，智能车ETF泰康(159720)近3月规模增长217.07万元，实现显著增长，新增规模位居可比 基金第一。 在当前投资市场中，"内卷"已成为常态——过度竞争、同质化严重、个体努力边际效益递减。然而，反 内卷的核心在于跳出低水平竞争，寻找真正具有长期增长潜力的优质赛道。智能电动汽车行业正是这样 一片蓝海：政策支持明确、技术迭代加速、市场空间广阔。 相关产品：智能车ETF泰康(159720)。 与此同时，"千县万镇新能源汽车消费季" 政策（2025年7-12月）将释放县域市场超百万辆增量，叠加最 高2万元以旧换新补贴及5年0息金融支持，直接刺激终端需求。北京、武汉等地已开放L4级自动驾驶商 业化试点， ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、赵宇、王茂宇 联系人| 李欣越 摘要 6月，海外市场再现"金发女郎"交易，国内市场情绪也在经济的温和复苏中持续提振。随着关税效应的逐 步显现，滞胀预期如何验证、市场交易的主线如何切换？本文分析，供参考。 一、宏观月报：关税效应进入"数据验证期" （一）6月海外市场主线？美国"金发女郎"交易再起，伊以、关税风波阶段性扰动 海外方面，美国非农数据强化了经济"软着陆"的信心，焦点转向通胀预期的验证。 1）6月以来，美国高 频零售价格加速上涨；2）各类联储调查的制造业价格指数指向美国商品通胀上行压力较大；3）多数美 国企业表示会在关税成本压力显现后的1-3个月内涨价。 国内方面，反内卷或仍是核心聚焦；政策或通过供需端总量调控、结合产业结构转型升级。 1）总量层 面，破解"内卷"困境重点或在缓解供需矛盾。2）结构方面，或主要通过政策引导、行业自律等推动供给 创新升级。经济数据，聚焦服务业景气的接力与出口数据的验证。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；国内政策变化超预期。 6月以来，"金发女郎"交易再度成为海外市场的主线。 原因有三方面：1）《美 ...

"反内卷"主逻辑驱动钢价震荡偏强 | 投资咨询业务资格： | | --- | | 号 证监许可【2012】1087 | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | 电话：0931-8894545 | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | 报告日期：2025 年 月 日星期一 7 14 | 研究报告 螺纹周报 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约上涨 1.65%。 报告日期：2025 年 7 月 14 日星期一 基本面：上周 Mysteel 调研 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.15%，环比减少 0.31 个百分点，同比增加 0.65 个百 分点；高炉炼铁产能利用率 89.9%，环比减少 0.39 个 百分点，同比增加 1.2 个百分点；钢厂盈利率 59.74%， 环比增加 0.43 个百分点，同比增加 22.94 个百分点； 日均铁水产量 239.81 万吨，环比减少 1.04 万吨。 后市展望：目前钢材受"反内卷"逻辑支撑钢价， 同时上游焦煤、 ...