Core Viewpoint - In May, the issuance of Chinese dollar bonds showed signs of recovery, with a total issuance exceeding $16 billion, marking a year-on-year and month-on-month increase, indicating a positive trend in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Issuance Data - The overall issuance scale of Chinese dollar bonds in May reached $16.131 billion, representing a month-on-month growth of 38.94% [3]. - Year-to-date, the total issuance of Chinese dollar bonds has surpassed $62.211 billion, reflecting a nearly 40% increase compared to the same period last year [1][5]. - Financial institutions dominated the issuance, accounting for 76.81% of the total in May, with $12.390 billion issued by financial entities [5]. Group 2: Bond Characteristics - The majority of the bonds issued this year have medium to long-term maturities, with bonds maturing in 1-3 years making up 54.68% of the total issuance [5]. - The net financing amount for Chinese dollar bonds remains negative at -$17.155 billion year-to-date, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The issuance of Chinese dollar bonds is expected to continue to increase in 2025, despite high refinancing pressures, with significant amounts maturing in the coming years [8]. - The market is showing signs of recovery, with the Markit iBoxx Asian Chinese dollar bond index rising over 3% year-to-date, suggesting improved investor sentiment [8].

疲软的经济数据和贸易不确定性使得市场对美联储降息的预期显著升温。根据LSEG数据，市场预计美 联储在9月会议上降息至少25个基点的可能性高达77%。特朗普多次公开呼吁美联储主席鲍威尔降低利 率，认为当前的经济环境需要更宽松的货币政策来刺激增长。Monex USA交易主管Juan Perez表示， ADP就业数据的意外疲软表明劳动力市场正在放缓，这对美元构成不利影响，同时也为降息预期提供了 依据。 尽管美联储官员普遍表示将保持耐心，观察关税对通胀的潜在影响，但ISM服务投入物价指数从4月的 65.1升至68.7，创下2022年11月以来最高水平，显示通胀压力依然存在。BondBloxx投资管理公司合伙 人JoAnne Bianco指出，当前市场仍对降息时点存在分歧，关税对通胀的潜在影响尚未完全显现。这种 复杂背景下，黄金作为对冲通胀和货币政策不确定性的资产，受到越来越多投资者的青睐。 摘要周四（6月5日）欧市盘中，国际黄金区间维持震荡走势，截至发稿报3373.55美元/盎司，涨幅 0.03%，今日金价开盘于3373.55美元/盎司，最高上探3383.91美元/盎司，最低触及3360.88美元/盎司。 【黄金行情 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant appreciation of the Swiss Franc is creating deflationary pressures in Switzerland, complicating the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) ability to intervene due to the current U.S. administration's stance [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The Swiss Franc has appreciated over 10% against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year, driven by global market volatility and a flight to safety [3][4]. - The strong Swiss Franc has led to a decrease in import prices, contributing to a 2.4% year-on-year decline in import prices and a 0.1% decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May, marking Switzerland's first return to deflation since the pandemic [3][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Response - The SNB may be forced to consider reintroducing negative interest rates as a response to the strong Swiss Franc, which could further lower the key interest rate by 25 basis points to -0.25% by the end of the year [5][6]. - The SNB ended its seven-year negative interest rate policy in 2022, but the current economic conditions may necessitate a reconsideration of this stance [5][6]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Intervention Challenges - The SNB's ability to intervene in the foreign exchange market is complicated by the U.S. government's potential response, as any direct intervention could lead to accusations of currency manipulation, reminiscent of the 2020 designation by the U.S. Treasury [6][7]. - The current geopolitical climate and the U.S. administration's trade policies make it difficult for the SNB to utilize foreign exchange interventions without facing significant repercussions [6][7].

美联储于昨晚（六月四号）发布的2025年5月的褐皮书，基于其12个地区联储收集的最新经济信息，为 我们描绘了一幅当前美国经济的复杂图景。 作为美联储货币政策决策的重要参考，这份报告的定性观察往往能提供比硬数据更细致、更贴近地面的 经济感受。 本次报告的核心信息显示，美国经济活动自上次报告以来普遍呈现放缓迹象，而持续高企的经济和政策 不确定性，特别是与关税相关的因素，正成为企业和家庭决策的关键阻力。 报告指出，整体经济活动自上次报告以来略有下降。虽然有三个地区报告轻微增长，但半数地区报告了 轻微至温和的下降，另有三个地区报告无变化。 这种普遍的放缓态势，与各地区普遍报告的经济和政策不确定性升高密切相关。企业和家庭在这种环境 下变得更加犹豫和谨慎，推迟了招聘、投资和消费等重要决策。 在劳动力市场方面，褐皮书显示整体就业水平变化不大。 然而，报告中的细节描绘了一个正在降温的市场： 多数地区劳动力需求下降，表现为工时和加班减少、招聘暂停以及裁员计划的出现。尽管普遍裁员情况 并不严重，但员工流失率的降低和职位申请者数量的增加，都印证了劳动力供需关系的转变。 工资继续以温和速度增长，且普遍的工资压力有所缓解，这对于缓解服 ...

农产品期权 2025-06-05 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品区间盘整，油脂类，豆类偏弱行情，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品 白糖延续偏弱，棉花反弹后高位盘整形态，谷物类玉米和淀粉逐渐回暖上升后窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 豆一 | A2507 | 4,128 | 11 | ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：钢厂第 3 轮调降焦价 盘面低位震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 5 日 逻辑：昨日，煤焦期货市场低位反弹，焦煤主力合约涨幅近 7%。昨 日空头止盈叠加蒙煤进口资源税及国内矿产资源法等信息发酵，助力煤价 走出反弹趋势。河北地区部分钢厂开始对焦炭价格进行第 3 轮调降，计划 6 日执行。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，煤矿生产延续小幅下滑趋势，但尚未出现大面积停减 产。本周 523 座炼焦煤样本矿山原煤日产 189.9 万吨，环比减少 1.8 万吨， 同比下降 7.8 万吨，据了解山西河津、离石、清徐煤矿因安全原因停产， 停产时间预计 15 天左右。不过当前煤矿端库存压力尚未减轻，煤矿端原 煤库存增至 670.8 万吨，环比增加 29.7 万吨，同比增加 335.7 万吨；精 煤库存 480.7 万吨，环比增加 7.7 万吨，同比增加 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Lancang Ancient Tea (06911.HK), known as the "first stock of Pu'er tea," is attempting to alleviate operational pressure by replacing 35 tons of new tea with 160 tons of old tea to optimize inventory structure amid a slow market recovery [2][3] - The inventory issue has been significant, with stock reaching 909 million yuan, accounting for 58% of total assets, and some inventory nearing the critical point of the "three-year best drinking period," posing a risk of impairment [2] - The overall Pu'er tea market growth has slowed to 6.7%, with an extended inventory digestion cycle of 32 months, leading to intensified industry competition [3] Group 2 - Despite efforts to accelerate circulation through the replacement of old tea, it remains uncertain whether this will genuinely improve cash flow [3] - The company faces challenges with ineffective channel transformation, as online promotion expenses surged by 50% in 2024 without corresponding growth, negatively impacting the offline distributor system [3] - Management instability has added to the uncertainty, with the resignation of the general manager and the founder temporarily taking over the role, leading to suggestions from minority shareholders to remove him from the executive director position [3] Group 3 - The company is attempting to rejuvenate its brand by launching new series like "Tea Mama" and "Rock Cold" to attract new consumer groups, but the market performance of these brands has been lackluster, with revenue declining [3] - Industry experts suggest that traditional tea companies need to reconstruct their business models, shifting from "mass production" to flexible supply chains and enhancing brand cultural value rather than merely replicating offline models online [3] - Currently, the company's stock remains suspended, and the release of the 2024 financial report has been delayed, leading to market skepticism regarding its ability to reverse the downturn [3]

Key Points - The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book, providing insights into the economic conditions across the U.S. [1] - China's Caixin Services PMI for May will be announced, which is crucial for understanding the service sector's performance [1] - The unemployment rate for Switzerland in May will be adjusted and reported [1] - Eurozone's Producer Price Index (PPI) for April will be released, indicating inflation trends [1] - Challenger's report on U.S. job cuts for May will be published, reflecting employment trends [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision, impacting monetary policy [1] - The U.S. trade balance for April will be reported, providing insights into trade dynamics [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 31 will be released, indicating labor market conditions [1] - ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference, likely discussing monetary policy and economic outlook [1] - The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for May will be published in the U.S., reflecting supply chain conditions [1] - EIA's natural gas inventory report for the week ending May 30 will be released, impacting energy markets [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Cook will speak on economic outlook, providing insights into future monetary policy [1] - Federal Reserve's Harker will discuss economic prospects, which may influence market expectations [1] - Federal Reserve's Schmidt will address banking policies, relevant for financial sector stability [1]

加拿大央行：将继续评估通胀压力的下行和上行时机及其强度。 ...

| 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 铜 | CU2507 | 78,180 | 390 | 0.50 | 8.19 | -0.55 | 18.23 | 0.93 | | 铝 | AL2507 | 19,990 | 50 | 0.25 | 18.35 | 1.24 | 19.11 | -0.45 | | 锌 | ZN2507 | 22,355 | 115 | 0.52 | 15.54 | -2.63 | 12.27 | 0.61 | | 铅 | PB2507 | 16,635 | 60 | 0.36 | 2.85 | -2.44 | 5.55 | 0.22 | | 镍 | NI2507 | 121,860 | 300 | 0.25 | 7.35 | -7.21 | 9.19 | -0.30 | | 锡 | SN2507 | 253,930 | 3,840 ...