Core Viewpoint - The recent developments in the Changsha Olympic Sports Center area, including the approval of the environmental impact report for the extension of Metro Line 5 and the launch of the first residential land for resettlement, indicate a significant step towards the area's construction and development, which is expected to boost real estate opportunities in the region [1][2]. Group 1: Project Developments - The environmental impact report for the extension of Metro Line 5 has been publicly released, bringing the project closer to commencement [1]. - The first residential land for resettlement in the Olympic Sports Center area has been officially listed, marking a substantial move towards land supply and development in the region [2]. - The land parcel, designated for the construction of resettlement housing, has a starting price of 400.39 million yuan and a starting floor price of 1,886 yuan per square meter [2]. Group 2: Market Implications - The launch of quality land parcels in the Olympic Sports Center area is expected to lead to the development of more high-quality residential projects [2]. - The average selling price for the newly listed residential land is approximately 6,100 yuan per square meter, which is lower than surrounding projects priced at 10,000 to 11,000 yuan per square meter [3]. - The development of high-quality resettlement communities is anticipated to attract population influx and support initial commercial and educational operations, enhancing the area's overall vitality [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing construction and improvement of infrastructure in the Olympic Sports Center area are expected to increase housing demand due to industrial clustering and population growth [4]. - Real estate developers are likely to intensify their efforts in the area, leading to a rich supply of housing projects and a favorable supply-demand balance [4]. - The overall housing prices in the Olympic Sports Center area are projected to steadily rise as the 2029 National Games approaches and infrastructure continues to improve [4].

2025 年 6 月 26 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、镍、锡、工业硅、碳酸锂、 焦煤期货将偏强震荡 原油、燃料油、豆粕期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3944 和 3964 点，支撑位 3910 和 3890 点；IH2509 阻力位 2735 和 2750 点，支撑位 2719 和 2707 点；IC2509 阻力位 5838 和 5888 点，支撑位 5740 和 5690 点；IM2509 阻力位 62 ...

在6月23日观点指数研究院发布的《民企抢地 | 2025年6月房地产企业新增土地储备报告》中，我们发现 从权益拿地金额来看，今年5月国企、城投、民企和混改房企的占比分别为66.87%、10%、20%和 3.13%。值得注意的的是，民企拿地比例居于顺位第二，此前多为城投企业。 观点指数发布的房地产企业新增土地储备报告显示，报告期内前50房企单月新增土地建筑面积260.13万 平方米，环比下降42.7%。 值得注意的是，前50房企1-5月新增土地建筑面积2551.54万平方米，同比上升15.28%。 其中，保利发展控股、中海地产、绿城中国新增的全口径土地储备分别为195.65万平方米、158.78万平 方米、148.19万平方米，处于领先位置。 从权益拿地金额来看，1-5月土地投资力度最大的企业为保利发展控股、绿城中国、中海地产、华润置 地及滨江集团，权益拓储金额分别为367.22、313.18、290.8、289.23和269.68亿元。另外，建发房产和 中国金茂紧随其后，权益拿地金额分别为241.375亿元、220.15亿元。 从新增货值来看，1-5月土地货值增加最多的企业为保利发展控股、中海地产、中国金茂、 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating [3] 2. Core View of the Report The zinc price is running weakly, with downstream consumption gradually weakening. The supply growth is accelerating due to increased production by smelters and the release of new and restarted capacities. The import window is closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. The domestic social inventory is stable, while the overseas inventory continues to decline. Technically, the short - selling pressure is weakening with reduced positions. It is recommended to wait and see [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,240 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 95 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,710 dollars/ton, up 29.5 dollars; the total Shanghai zinc open interest is 264,399 lots, up 4,519 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 16,294 lots, up 3,065 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 6,473 tons, down 696 tons [3] - The SHFE inventory is 42,864 tons, down 2,602 tons; the LME inventory is 122,875 tons, down 575 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,260 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,450 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [3] - The basis of the main ZN contract is 20 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 17.39 dollars/ton, up 2.78 dollars [3] - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,150 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, an improvement of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an improvement of 10,400 tons [3] - The global zinc mine production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons [3] - The zinc social inventory is 58,400 tons, down 2,200 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3] - The new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [3] - The automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 14.73%, up 12.85 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 14.69%, up 10.48 percentage points [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.1%, up 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 17.23%, up 0.13 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said the economic situation is highly uncertain, and decisions should be based on actual data. The US economy outperforms others, so interest rates may be higher, and the Fed will resume rate cuts at some point [3] - IMF Deputy Managing Director Li Bo said the development of stablecoins has both opportunities and challenges, and global consensus on effective regulation is needed [3] - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out the need to expand domestic demand, boost consumption, and build a new real - estate development model [3]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of real estate companies in the first half of 2025 shows signs of stabilization, with nearly 45% of the top 100 companies experiencing year-on-year growth, although challenges remain due to buyer confidence and inventory pressures [1][9][13]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The cumulative sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies from January to May 2025 was 13,137.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, while the total sales amount was 14,113 billion yuan, down 8.4% [3]. - The threshold for the top 10 companies in terms of total sales increased to 43.26 billion yuan, an 8.1% rise year-on-year, contrasting with a 13.1% decrease in the threshold for the top 20 companies, which fell to 15.15 billion yuan [4]. - Among the top 100 companies, 45% reported year-on-year growth, with 20 companies achieving growth rates exceeding 30% [9]. Group 2: Company Classification and Performance - In the top 100 companies, there are 47 private enterprises, a decrease of one compared to the entire year of 2024. Only one private company is in the top 10, indicating a trend where capital favors state-owned and large enterprises amid ongoing liquidity crises for many private firms [6]. - The performance of state-owned enterprises is notably stronger, with 70% of central enterprises and 53% of state-owned enterprises reporting growth, compared to only 38% of mixed-ownership companies and 32% of private companies [9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is in a phase of bottoming out, with local policies being optimized and some restrictions being eased in key cities, signaling a potential stabilization in the real estate market [13]. - Despite the positive signals, challenges remain as buyer confidence is still recovering, and companies face increasing inventory pressures, necessitating proactive measures in marketing and product innovation to capture market opportunities [13].

"穷买一楼，傻买顶楼"——这句房地产界的俗语，究竟是真是假？让我们深入探讨一楼和顶楼的优劣， 看看这句老话在现代房地产市场是否依然适用。 首先，让我们审视顶楼的利与弊。顶楼的优势显而易见：视野开阔，拥有无可比拟的城市景观或自然风 光；空气流通良好，令人心旷神怡；采光充足，即使阴天也能享受到明亮的空间。此外，顶楼的私密性 也极佳，人迹罕至，保证了居住的宁静与安逸。然而，顶楼也并非完美无缺。在南方多雨的季节，外墙 渗水问题可能困扰着顶楼住户，给室内装修带来隐患。夏季酷热，冬季严寒，空调的持续运转不仅增加 了能源消耗，也影响了居住舒适度。此外，依赖电梯上下楼的不便，也成为了顶楼的显著缺陷。 然 而，这一缺陷在多层小洋房中并不存在，并且随着现代建筑技术的进步，开发商普遍在顶层加盖阁楼赠 送，不仅扩大了居住面积，也弥补了部分空间上的不足。更重要的是，先进的防水、保温材料的应用， 有效解决了以往顶楼渗水和保温差等问题。 综上所述，"穷买一楼，傻买顶楼"这句俗语，在当今房地产市场已不再完全适用。一楼和顶楼的优缺点 都随着建筑技术的进步和开发商设计理念的革新而发生了变化。是否选择一楼或顶楼，取决于购房者的 实际需求、经济状况 ...

报告导读： 以伊实现脆弱停火，原油价格大幅走低，但对黑色商品目前影响有限。5 月各线房价环比均回落，显示目前的房地产市场仍处于筑底的过程中 ，5 月的经济数据整体略不及预期。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，上周螺纹产量有所上升，厂库下降，社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求 环比继续回落，数据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态 。从需求的季节性规律看，随着雨季和高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱，且库存将会小幅回 升。整体来看，目前市场交易的是弱现实和弱预期 ，但价格也有可能充分地反映了各方面的利空 。从技术上看，期价仍旧维持窄幅震荡，成交在回 落，在价格下跌时，持仓量放大，显示空头仍更主动，须警惕近期可能出现的二次探底走势 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年06月26日08时22分 报告导读： 请务必阅读文后重要声明 第 1 页，共 3 页 投资咨询系列报告 操作建议： 维持观望，充分调整后可做多 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is gradually stabilizing under continuous policy regulation, with a clear focus on maintaining market stability, promoting transformation, and preventing risks. The government has set three core tasks: urban renewal, high-quality transformation, and inventory optimization [1][2][19]. Policy Implementation - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to "continuously consolidate the stable situation of the real estate market," indicating that the market has entered a new phase of supply-demand balance since late 2024 [1][2]. - In the first half of 2025, local governments issued 362 market stabilization policies across 130 provinces and cities, maintaining a year-on-year stability in policy issuance [1][14]. - The government aims to enhance urban renewal actions, construct a new model for real estate development, and optimize policies for purchasing existing properties to strengthen market risk defenses [2][19]. Financial Support - A comprehensive financial policy package was introduced by the central bank and regulatory authorities, focusing on reducing costs, expanding demand, and stabilizing expectations. This includes a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [6][7]. - The reduction in interest rates for housing loans is expected to save homebuyers over 20 billion yuan annually, enhancing their purchasing power and supporting housing demand [7][8]. Land Supply and Inventory Management - The Ministry of Natural Resources announced a plan to utilize local government special bonds to support land reserves, with a proposed land acquisition scale exceeding 9,500 hectares, which is expected to alleviate inventory pressure in the real estate market [10][20]. - The average theoretical construction area from the proposed land acquisition exceeds 1.9 million square meters, which could lead to a significant reduction in the new housing sales cycle [11][20]. Future Directions - The government plans to focus on four main areas in the second half of 2025: advancing special bond land acquisition, accelerating urban renewal, implementing precise financial policies, and speeding up supply-side reforms to support the new development model [19][21].

当实现短期目标存在压力时，政策会加码；反之，政策会更加侧重于长期目标 。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 去年以来，政策的核心逻辑始终围绕平衡短期目标和长期目标展开 。短期目标是稳增长、稳预期，最 直接的目标是实现5%的经济增速。长期目标是推动改革、加快转型，通过科技创新和市场化改革提高 经济要素的配置效率，打开经济潜在增长空间。去年"9.24"以来，短期目标的紧迫性明显上升，但长 期目标的重要性依然不容忽视。当实现短期目标存在压力时，政策通常会加码；反之，政策会更加侧重 于长期目标。 从当前内外部环境看，实现短期目标的压力较小 。外交方面，中美之间的不确定性从日内瓦协议到伦 敦高会谈以来持续减弱；中国与非美特别是周边国家外交取得积极进展。国内方面，上半年消费表现亮 眼，5月社零同比增长6.4%，创2024年以来新高；出口仍有韧性，5月出口同比增长4.8%；二季度经 济增速有望延续一季度5.4%的表现，全年实现5%增长目标的压力不大。 近期，消费、地产、改革、科技等领域的政策声音都传递出由短期刺激转向长期支持的信号。 （一）消费："以旧换新"强调节奏"平稳有序"，整治套补骗补 6月以来，各地陆续暂停国补，原 ...

房地产市场回暖了吗？当然没有！如果按照今年上半年几个月的楼市态势，还真有希望，不过刚过去的月份显示，楼市又出现了下行波动。 官方给出的解读是，今年以来，随着各项稳定房地产政策的加快落实，房地产市场持续朝着止跌回稳的方向发展。但需要注意的是，房地产市场仍处于调整 过程中，市场信心有待持续修复，市场供求关系也有待改善，要实现房地产止跌回稳还需要继续努力。 所以，这才是最客观的说法，楼市向好也罢，没有回暖也罢，其实都是对的，尽管向好，也并没有达到预期，也就意味着楼市要想回暖还有很长的路要走。 就在刚刚，6月24日新华社消息，央行等六部门联合发布《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，《意见》指出，要夯实宏观经济金融基础，支持居 民就业增收，优化保险保障，积极培育消费需求，共19项重点举措。这些措施的实施将有助于释放消费潜力，促进经济健康发展。 虽然并非针对房地产的政策，但是如果经济能够得到持续恢复，那么将与房地产形成良好的互动关系，相辅相成。而且接下来的细则中一定会有跟房地产直 接有关的利好政策出台，这是毫无疑问的。 这一轮房价下调从2021年7月下行周期开启已长达4年，那么这种调整什么时候会止跌回稳呢？2025 ...