证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 二手房同比增速明显放缓 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 因假期周数据通常低于正常周，本周环比与节前一周相比，而非与五一假期周相比。 分城市层级看，一二三线新房成交环比同样都在下滑，而一线降幅较大。一线、二线、三线环比分别降 32%、16%、11%。一线城市中，北京、上海和深圳分别下滑 28%、33%和 34%。二线的苏州和武汉降幅较 大，分别下滑 32%和 33%。 同比来看，本周一线城市下滑 10.5%，降幅与 4月的 12.5%差别不大。二线城市下滑 22.9%，降幅较 4月的 10.1%明显扩大。三线城市下滑 8.6%，降幅较 4 月的 17.4%有所收窄。 风险提示 地产政策出现超预期调整。以旧换新政策落地不及预期。 [Table_Author] 分析师：肖金川 分析师：黄晓曦 联系人：洪青青 SAC NO：S1120524030004 SAC NO：S1120524040002 邮箱：xiaojc@hx168.com.cn 邮箱：huangxx1@ ...

.01 楼市下行，房子难卖，急的何止是开发商炒房客，那些即将结婚、孩子即将上学的家庭，也在为买房着急不已，土地收入锐减，地方也在加大刺激力度。 然而住建部部长则表示，未来楼市的发展方向将会转变。2025年起楼市或将迎来大调整，强刺激即将到来。 房地产市场的变迁 先是2015年开始快速上涨，让年轻人望楼兴叹，只能降低品质租房生存。再到2020年疫情冲击，全国房地产开发投资以及房屋销售同比快速下行， 紧接着，银行信贷政策的收紧，房企融资愈发困难，多重压力下，近两年全国房地产市场经历了数次降价，一些三四线城市更是跳水严重。 持续性的价格下行并没有激起人们的购房意愿上升，反而加速买房子的信心下挫，持币者观望情绪浓厚。 也正是同一时期，房价的持续下行也浪炒房客群体心理发生了转变，纷纷加速逃离，加剧二手房市场挂牌量激增。 而多空双方的较量，一旦空方占据优势，想要逆转就没那么容易，即使这几年几次阶段性的政策放宽，都没能达到预期的效果，现在的房地产市场急需一 支"强心针"。 随着住建部部长释放出未来楼市的变迁信号，业内开始认为，2025起，楼市可能会迎来"大调整"。 .02 强刺激再度来袭 1.现房销售。 这几年利好政策不断 ...

3天前，已经很久没有消息的中粮鸿云在时隔3年之后，再次获得预售证。 最新取证的是8、9、7、2四栋住宅，预售面积27899平米。说是预售，其实中粮鸿云前期楼栋早就成了现房，第一期在去年都已交 付，如今获证的4栋住宅之所以拖到现在才办预售证，一方面是是因为中粮鸿云的销售状况很不理想，前三次取得预售证的12栋住宅 迟迟无法消化，另一方面，中粮鸿云当年是高价拿地，可是开盘后售价却一降再降，基本是亏本销售，大悦城控股也有观察市场走 势，寻找更合适销售机会的考虑。 中粮鸿云的土地面积有77亩，是大悦城在2021年经过28轮激烈竞拍后花6亿元拿下的土地，由于溢价30%，中粮鸿云的楼面地价就达 到了4677元/平米，而且还要配建幼儿园、生鲜超市等，可是中粮鸿云在2022年首开时，起价也才7300元，而且是精装交付，已经是 亏本销售，后期价格也始终没起来，整盘亏损恐难避免。 大悦城作为央企中粮集团旗下的房地产开发企业，进入昆明后发展一直不太顺利，最早参与的老螺蛳湾片区一二级开发，因为属于合 作开发性质，大悦城的参与度本来就不高，由合作方碧桂园操盘的隆盛府目前已经是不死不活的状态，合作各方矛盾重重。 中粮鸿云曾经以不到7000 ...

Group 1 - The real estate market in China is experiencing a downturn, with 58 out of 70 major cities reporting a month-on-month decline in new residential prices and 63 cities seeing a decline in second-hand residential prices in Q1 2025 [2] - The average residential price in 100 cities decreased by 1.7% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of month-on-month declines [2] - Developers are employing promotional strategies such as "buy a house, get free renovations" and "zero down payment" to stimulate sales, indicating a challenging market environment [2] Group 2 - Despite the downturn, many developers are only offering limited price reductions of 5% to 10%, raising questions about the persistence of high property prices [4] - A financial expert highlighted that the high property prices are maintained by a coalition of local governments, developers, and financial institutions, which creates a vested interest in keeping prices elevated [4] Group 3 - The excessive financialization and assetization of real estate in China has led to a disconnect between property prices and the actual purchasing power of residents [6] - Developers are hesitant to significantly reduce prices due to "price drop restrictions" imposed by local governments, fear of backlash from previous buyers, and concerns that large price cuts would deter potential buyers [6][8] Group 4 - Local governments are reluctant to see property prices fall significantly as it would reduce developers' willingness to acquire land, impacting government revenue from land sales [8] - Financial institutions also prefer stable or high property prices to avoid increased default rates on loans from both buyers and developers [8] Group 5 - The oversupply of housing in China is evident, with 600 million buildings and millions of new units entering the market annually, suggesting a long-term trend of supply exceeding demand [10] - Property price-to-income ratios in major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen exceed 40, while second and third-tier cities range from 20 to 25, indicating a significant bubble compared to international norms [10] Group 6 - Proposed measures to stabilize the real estate market include avoiding drastic price fluctuations, gradually deflating the housing bubble, introducing property taxes to diversify local government revenue, and increasing the supply of affordable housing for low-income groups [12]

近期，楼市传来了令人振奋的消息： 各大城市纷纷迎来销售量的迅猛增长，北京、上海等地更是呈现出强烈的筑底信号。许多曾经持观望态度的人，也开始跃跃欲试，蠢蠢欲动，想要抓住这一 机会入市。 根据中国国家统计局发布的数据显示，"2015年3月份70个大中城市住宅销售价格变动情况"表明，70城房价已经摆脱了"过冷"区域，持续收窄的环比跌幅令 市场信心回升，尤其是一线城市上海和北京的房价回升尤为显著。 根据上海中原地产的统计数据，3月上海二手住宅的成交量达到2.69万套，环比增长75%，同比增长45.36%。这一成交量不仅超过了2024年12月的高点，还 创下了2022年以来成交量最高的3月纪录。 在北京，链家研究院的数据显示，3月北京新建商品住宅（不包括共有产权房）成交量为4151套，环比上涨107%，同比上涨51.7%。 这些数据充分表明，房地产市场正在经历从"政策底"到"市场底"的转变。随着全国商品房库存去化周期降至18个月的合理区间，市场的改善型需求开始主导 市场的走势。 在这样的市场环境下，未来五年，以下三类房产或将成为"黄金屋"： 01、黄金地段的高品质小区：城市更新的价值洼地 随着大城市核心区域土地日益稀缺 ...

从2022年开始，房地产市场就进入到长期调整的趋势之中。先是郑州、石家庄、涿州等二三线城市。在进入到2023年之后，像上海、深圳等一线城市也加入 到调整的趋势中。据最新数据显示：2024年全国商品房销售面积同比下降11.3%，销售额同比下降15.7%。2024年全国300个城市新建商品住宅价格指数同比 下降3.2%，二手住宅价格指数同比下降5.1%。 实际上，现在房地产市场的长期调整，对于那些拥有2套及以上房产的家庭来说，影响还是比较大的。前些年，央行公布数据显示，国内有41.5%的家庭拥 有二套及以上房产，如果再算上近些年新增的家庭，实际占比可能达到45%。而这些家庭将会在未来几年内面临"5大挑战"： 挑战一：房子市值在不断的缩水 之前很多人都认为，一线城市的房价"只涨不跌"，下跌的主要还是那些三四线城市。但结果不仅是像涿州、廊坊、燕郊等环京三四线城市房价跌去50%以 上。就连上海、深圳等一线城市的房价也从最高时的9万多/米，跌至现在的6万多每平米，跌幅也超过了30%。 而现如今，像上海、深圳等一线城市的房价与收入比40，就是当地居民不吃不喝40年才能买得起房子。而二线城市的房价与收入比在20-25，也远高 ...

Group 1: Policy and Market Overview - The Central Committee and State Council issued opinions to promote urban renewal, emphasizing sustainable development and improved urban quality [1] - The Central Political Bureau reiterated the need to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, with financial regulators committed to implementing supportive measures [1] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates, which is expected to save residents over 20 billion yuan annually [1] Group 2: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, particularly in first- and second-tier cities, with high-quality projects entering the market [3] - In the first quarter, real estate loans increased by over 750 billion yuan, with personal housing loans seeing the largest quarterly increase since 2022 [2] - The inventory of new homes in 12 key cities is 87.71 million square meters, with a de-stocking cycle of 15.2 months, indicating a significant year-on-year reduction [3] Group 3: Company Performance - Vanke Enterprises reported revenue exceeding 340 billion yuan for 2024, leading the industry in transaction volume and housing delivery [5] - China Resources Land's total contract sales for April 2025 were approximately 17.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease [5] - Yuexiu Property achieved contract sales of approximately 10.29 billion yuan in April 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 23.8% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various policies and initiatives implemented by local governments and companies to support housing needs for recent college graduates, focusing on rental and home purchase assistance to attract and retain talent in different cities [2][8]. Group 1: Rental Support Policies - Many cities are introducing diverse rental support policies for recent graduates, including talent apartments and rental subsidies, to alleviate housing costs [2][5]. - For instance, in Wuhan, eligible graduates can apply for talent rental housing with rent reductions of up to 1,500 yuan per month for a maximum of three years [4]. - Qingdao has implemented a policy providing up to six months of rent-free accommodation for graduates within three years of graduation [5][6]. Group 2: Company Initiatives - Some companies are enhancing their support for graduates by offering housing allowances and dormitory accommodations, further reducing the financial burden on new employees [7]. - A company in Beijing provides an 800 yuan monthly housing subsidy for employees who do not stay in company-provided dormitories [7]. Group 3: Home Purchase Support Policies - As graduates' living situations stabilize, many cities are shifting focus to home purchase support, including subsidies and favorable loan terms to encourage home buying among young professionals [8][9]. - Policies in cities like Zhuzhou and Wuhan include financial incentives for first-time homebuyers, such as purchase subsidies and enhanced loan limits [9][10]. - Shanghai has introduced measures allowing graduates to access higher loan amounts and favorable repayment terms for housing loans [10]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The support for graduates in terms of housing is aligned with national policies aimed at improving employment opportunities for youth and stabilizing the real estate market [9][10]. - Experts suggest that these initiatives not only help graduates settle in urban areas but also contribute to the overall health of the local real estate market by boosting housing consumption [10].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market is experiencing a trend of declining transaction volume and prices, with average housing prices dropping by 30% from their peak, particularly in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [2] Group 1: Market Trends - The real estate market is facing a "dual decline" in both transaction amounts and areas sold, indicating a significant downturn [2] - Various government policies aimed at stimulating the market have been introduced, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions, lowering mortgage rates and down payment ratios, and tax exemptions for homebuyers [2] Group 2: Investment Considerations - For individuals with 500,000 yuan, it is suggested to keep the money in the bank rather than purchasing property, as the current housing prices in major cities are prohibitively high [6][8] - Even if 500,000 yuan could cover a down payment in second or third-tier cities, it would deplete all savings and impose a heavy mortgage burden, making bank savings or other investments a more prudent choice [6][8] - In a deflationary cycle, bank interest can supplement household expenses, while purchasing property could lead to significant wealth depreciation if housing prices continue to fall [8]

双降&中美经贸会谈后的债市展望 20250515 摘要 • 传统流动性指标失效，个人投资者资金分布成关键因素。今年理财扩张规 模或相对一般，对应市场为小牛市。央行主导长端利率下行风险缓解，可 关注 5 到 7 年凸性交易机会。 • 中期来看经济下行和低通胀未结束，利率下行趋势未破坏。信用债投资首 要任务是保持流动性，可适当下沉或拉长久期，关注高流动性溢价品种， 谨慎对待低流动性品种。 今年债券市场的核心主线是什么？ 今年债券市场的核心主线是流动性与预期差。预期差既包括基本面的息差，也 包括资金面的预期差。这方面会给证券市场持续带来扰动。我们整体认为今年 的债券市场是一个震荡偏强的市场，预计十年国债运行区间为 1.6 到 1.9，相 对去年利率单边下行，今年可能会有一些波动往复。 对于基本面和流动性的具体判断是什么？ 对于基本面，今年最重要的是关注是否已经见底，而不是好转。过去几年，大 家一直预期基本面单边下行，这与地产下行周期匹配。今年一季度讨论剧烈， 认为地产周期是否见底，但二季度随着逻辑被证伪，大家回到偏下行方向。目 前市场对于基本面的预期大于实际结果，即使关税政策对基本面有长期负面影 响或短期正面刺激， ...