宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 看股做债，不是看债做股 核心观点 1、宏观资配研判的时候，辨析股债关系是极其重要的: 当居民存款搬家为流动性主要矛盾的时候，股债交易大的逻辑是看股做债带来 的股债跷跷板——股票表达风险偏好➡风险偏好带动居民存款搬家➡居民存 款搬家带动非银存款提升➡非银存款存在脉冲性➡央行对冲空转的警惕➡银 行间资金易紧➡债券下跌； 当央行货币宽松为流动性主要矛盾的时候，股债交易大的逻辑是看债做股带来 的股债双牛——央行大幅宽松➡银行间充裕带来非银存款提升➡无风险利率 下行+非银存款提升➡股票估值与增量资金双击。 2、虽然本轮非银流动性的增长规模接近 2014年~2015年，但与2014~2015年 货币宽松主导流动性改善显著不同，本轮流动性改善的主逻辑是居民存款搬 家。因此大的宏观交易逻辑上，我们认为本轮更倾向于看股做债的股债跷跷板 逻辑，而非看债做股的股债双牛逻辑。 3、值得注意的是，与过往流动性宽松相比，本轮居民存款搬家也存在特殊性： 第一特殊，居民存款配置难回地产，客观面临资产荒，涌动力量更强。 第二特殊，自上而下"稳股市"政策助力资本市场，一定程度上限制了股票市 场风险 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that convertible bonds with strong underlying stocks and high volatility are the most cost-effective options in the current market environment [2][17] - The market saw a significant increase in the convertible bond index, with a weekly rise of 2.08% and an average price increase of 4.54% [2][9] - The average conversion premium across different price ranges showed varied changes, indicating a shift in market sentiment and valuation [9][18] Group 2 - The report suggests that investors should avoid low-priced strategies in the convertible bond market and focus on high-volatility, strong underlying stocks for better returns [2][17] - It highlights the importance of adjusting positions based on risk tolerance, recommending a shift to lower volatility sectors for those with high withdrawal requirements [2][17] - The analysis indicates that the convertible bond market still has incremental capital inflow, benefiting from the profit-taking effect observed at the end of June [2][17]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 29 日 央行延续呵护，资金预计平稳跨月 ——流动性与机构行为跟踪 核心观点 资金面部分，未来一周，政府债净融资规模下降，月初央行预计按惯例回笼，资金面 大概率将保持均衡运行，平稳跨月。 存单部分，未来一周，存单到期规模约 0.25 万亿，供给压力有所减小，月初资金面预 计回到均衡偏松，存单收益率或呈现震荡走势。 机构行为部分，基金、农商行、其他产品是利率债主要买盘，农商行净买入力量有明 显回升。 ❑ 流动性：央行延续呵护，资金面预计平稳跨月 1、资金面部分：（1）央行 6 月 MLF 持续超额续作，已连续 4 个月续作 MLF 投放 流动性，配合 6 月 2000 亿的买断式逆回购净投放，资金面呈现均衡偏松的态势。 6 月央行三次操作中长期投放流动性，加强和市场的政策沟通，有效缓解了存单 大量到期带来的银行负债端压力。（2）过去一周，央行持续进行幅度较大的净投 放，以呵护跨月资金面，月末资金面紧张程度有限。由于跨月资金需求旺盛，核 心资金利率边际上行，资金面呈现 "量价双升"的情形，全周来看资金面体感均 衡 ...

7 月流动性会更松吗？ 2025 年 06 月 29 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：张云杰 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525020002 经济动态跟踪 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhangyunjie@mszq.com ➢ 6 月流动性进入年内"最松"状态，展望 7 月，流动性有哪些关注点？ 第一，参考近年规律，7 月市场往往会迎来"自发性"宽松。近年来，经济运行 基本遵循一季度"开门红"，随后增长动能渐趋平缓的规律，财政、金融更多靠前 发力。因此在 7 月份，政府债和信贷需求很难构成流动性"冲击"。 第二，央行对于经济的判断，虽然还不具有"紧迫性"，但已开始关注下行风险。 往后看，重点关注关税扰动下的制造业景气波折。经验表明，每当制造业 PMI 连 续 3 个月（或以上）跌入收缩区间，资金面往往会转松，有时甚至会触发总量货 币政策调整。再加上近期美联储降息预期"再起"，国内货币宽松的空间随之打 开。 第三，在工具选择上，货币政策更加注重灵活性和时效度，短期内重启国债买卖 的必要性不高。7 月并非财政"大月"，此外，5 月以来央 ...

周度报告-国债期货 债牛非坦途，继续看陡曲线 [T走ab势le_评Ra级nk：] 国债：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 06 月 29 日 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货小幅调整，曲线走陡 国 债 期 货 本周（06.23-06.29）国债期货小幅调整，曲线走陡。周一，资金 面边际略收敛、股市表现较强、临近季末机构止盈意愿上升共 同导致国债期货小幅下跌。周二，市场风险偏好上升、30Y 国 债一级市场发行情况略偏弱，国债市场延续震荡偏弱走势。周 三，因央行超额续作 MLF，早盘市场情绪偏强，但午后股市快 速拉升，国债期货震荡下跌，曲线走陡。周四，股市上涨动能 衰减，债市情绪边际企稳，国债期货窄幅震荡。周五，股市震 荡走弱，国债期货震荡走强。但市场暂不认为 6 月官方制造业 PMI 会走弱，现券市场涨幅相对偏小。截至 6 月 27 日收盘，两 年、五年、十年和三十年期国债期货主力合约结算价分别为 102.546、102.265、109.070 和 120.940 元，分别较上周末变动 +0.020、+0.010、-0.070 和-0.320 元。 ★债牛非坦途，继续看陡曲线 展望下周，债市表 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 固收周度点评 证券研究报告 央行的"为"与"不为" 1、股市压制，债市先弱后强，曲线小幅走陡 本周（6/23-6/27），跨季与股债"跷跷板"成为主导债市行情的主要逻辑， 上半周受股市行情走强影响，对债市形成压制，震荡走弱，但央行加码流 动性投放呵护跨季资金面，并且保险补配，对债市形成一定支撑。进入下 半周，债市进入修复行情，股债联动效应的影响边际减弱，叠加股市表现 有所回落，期间，央行继续加码呵护，周五公布的工企利润数据显示修复 进程仍存在不确定性，上述因素均对债市形成一定利好。 2、跨季整体无虞，银行负债端压力可控 本周资金面整体平稳，临近跨季波动有所增加，7 天资金利率大幅上行， 上半周政府债发行规模较大。但央行呵护意图较为明显，全周逆回购投放 超 2 万亿元，存单发行利率低波震荡、小幅上行，大行融出未有明显回落， 整体波动于 4 万亿元上下的区间，指向跨季资金整体无虞，银行负债端压 力相对可控。 3、央行货币政策的"为"与"不为" 6 月以来，大行买入短端国债规模同环比均有增长，历史上大行买入短端 国债规模较大时期主要集中于 2024 年 8-12 月，为公开市场国债买入的 ...

央行 Q2 例会新增信息有限 跨季后资金有望延续宽松 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250629 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 3央行 Q2 例会新增信息有限 跨季后资金有望延续宽松 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [➢Table_Summary] 货币市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - South Korea has lifted a 14-year ban on domestic institutional investment in "kimchi bonds" to improve foreign exchange liquidity and alleviate the depreciation pressure on the Korean won [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - The Bank of Korea announced that starting next week, it will fully lift restrictions on investments in foreign currency-denominated bonds (kimchi bonds) issued domestically [1] - The ban was initially implemented in 2011 due to concerns that excessive investment in foreign currency bonds could increase short-term external debt levels [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The policy adjustment excludes private placement kimchi bonds, indicating potential regulatory concerns [1] - This decision aims to stabilize the foreign exchange market and broaden domestic financing channels, reinforcing Seoul's position as a regional financial hub [1]

Core Insights - Family offices are experiencing explosive growth in Australia, with at least 2,000 currently operating, representing over 150% growth in the last decade [1] - The entry threshold for establishing a family office is at least 10 million AUD in liquid assets, often significantly more [1] - Ordinary investors can mimic the investment strategies of wealthy individuals through a combination of ETFs and a target annual return of 8% [1][3] Investment Strategy - The primary appeal of family offices lies in their customized asset allocation tailored to each family's unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and spending needs [3] - The long-term goal for family offices is to achieve stable annual returns of 6% to 8% over decades [3] - An 8% annual return is considered the "golden standard" for wealth preservation and transfer, offering more flexibility than merely tracking indices [3] ETF Comparisons - Two ETF providers, Betashares and VanEck, were invited to design asset portfolios targeting an 8% annual return over 30 years, compared to Australia's Future Fund [4] - The asset allocation for VanEck and Betashares includes various categories such as Australian equities, global equities, private equity, and alternatives, with VanEck focusing on a diversified risk premium strategy [4] Risk and Liquidity - Achieving an 8% annual return corresponds to a volatility range of 12%-18%, indicating the necessity for investors to withstand asset fluctuations [5] - Betashares has excluded private assets from its portfolio to mitigate liquidity mismatch risks, opting for more liquid equity products [7] - Both ETF providers suggest allocating 1%-2% of the portfolio to Bitcoin as an alternative asset to enhance diversification and return potential [7] Cost Considerations - Family offices typically charge a management fee of 1%, which translates to 100,000 AUD annually for assets of 10 million AUD, while ETFs have significantly lower annual fees [8] - Family offices provide comprehensive services beyond investment, including legacy planning and family governance, which adds value to their offerings [8] Conclusion - While ETFs may not fully replicate the services of a family office, they can effectively simulate a family office's asset allocation strategy for investors who are clear about their goals, can tolerate volatility, and prioritize long-term returns [9]

Group 1 - The book "The Myth of British Strategy: International Political Struggles in Europe, 1689-1914" challenges the traditional view that Britain's foreign policy was primarily focused on maintaining the balance of power in Europe, suggesting this perception is a historical myth [6] - "The Mask: Hygiene and Politics in Modern East Asia" discusses the role of masks in public health and political discourse in East Asia, highlighting their significance during various epidemics [26] - "Wine and War: The French Fight Against the Nazis" explores the role of the French wine industry during World War II, detailing how individuals in this sector cleverly navigated the challenges posed by Nazi occupation [30] Group 2 - "What is Meiji" reveals the modernization concepts of grassroots individuals during the Meiji Restoration, providing a different perspective on Japan's historical narrative [20] - "The Unseen Tchaikovsky" presents previously undisclosed materials from the Tchaikovsky Museum, offering insights into the composer's personal life and social interactions [8] - "The Conquest Code: Six Elements of Eurasian Prosperity" examines the underlying factors contributing to the dominance of Eurasian civilizations throughout history, focusing on agriculture, writing, maps, metallurgy, cavalry, and population migrations [47]