新华财经伊斯坦布尔7月25日电（记者许万虎）土耳其央行24日将主要政策利率大幅下调300个基点至 43%，超过市场预期。这是自3月以来土央行首次下调基准利率，意味着此前因金融和政治动荡而中断 的降息周期重启。 分析人士指出，在主要反对派政治人物被捕引发市场剧烈反应后，如今局势趋稳，为政策放松创造了空 间。此次降息可能表明央行政策制定者认为市场已足够稳定，可以重新推进宽松政策。 此次降息决定公布后，里拉兑美元和欧元汇率基本保持稳定。土耳其央行最新调查显示，此次降息幅度 比市场平均预期高出约50个基点。与此同时，伊斯坦布尔BIST100基准股指一度上涨1%。 虽然重启降息周期，但土央行在声明中表示："在实现价格稳定之前，紧缩的货币政策立场不变，未来 将通过抑制国内需求、推动里拉实际升值和改善通胀预期，来支持通胀回落进程。" 土央行强调，未来是否继续降息，将"以通胀前景为重点，逐次会议审慎评估"。 凯投宏观（Capital Economics）新兴市场经济学家尼古拉斯·法尔表示，尚不清楚土耳其央行为何采取如 此激进的降息行动，但从声明来看，政策制定者"对通胀压力减弱更加有信心"，也"可能受益于汇率压 力减轻带来的鼓 ...

特朗普：日本想要一个弱势货币。 ...

美股三大指数小幅高开，道指涨0.18%，纳指涨0.04%，标普500指数涨0.12%。英特尔跌逾8%，将进一 步裁员并取消部分海外项目。 （持续更新中……） 21:32 特朗普：鲍威尔会降低利率 据外媒报道，特朗普表示，鲍威尔会降低利率。 21:31 美股开盘丨三大指数小幅高 英特尔跌逾8% 美股三大指数小幅高开，道指涨0.18%，纳指涨0.04%，标普500指数涨0.12%。COURSERA涨逾27%， 二季度营收超过预期。AEYE涨逾20%，旗舰激光雷达被集成到英伟达自动驾驶平台。英特尔跌逾8%， 将进一步裁员并取消部分海外项目。 | 标普500期货小型 | 6405.00d 3.50 0.05% | | --- | --- | | 纳斯达克100期货小型 23362.50 -15.00 -0.06% | | | 纳斯达克100期货微型 23362.75 -14.75 - -0.06% | | | 道琼斯期货小型 | 44938d 39 0.09% | 21:20 欧洲主要股指多数下跌 德国DAX指数跌0.72%，法国CAC40指数跌0.26%，英国富时100指数跌0.32%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨 ...

| >国投期货 11/1 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月25日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★★☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今天郑棉小幅上涨,郑棉盘中冲高回落,商品继续走强,棉花也有所带动。现货基差总体持稳、成交一般。7月上半月棉花库存 去化速度有所放缓，截至7月15号，棉花商业库存为254.24万吨，环比6月减少28.74万吨。国内6月份棉花进口延续偏低的趋 势, 2025年6月进口3万吨, 再创近20年新低, 同比降12.53万吨, 环比降0.45万吨;2025年1-6月累计进 ...

焦煤期货主力合约日内涨超4%，报1285元/吨。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's unusual visit to the Federal Reserve, highlighting the rarity of such an event since the last presidential visit in 2006, and likens it to a scene from "House of Cards" [1] - Trump's approach to the Federal Reserve is characterized as treating it like a personal finance department, with a focus on potential interest rate cuts and their implications for the economy [3] - The market's reaction to Trump's statements about interest rate cuts shows a significant increase in rate cut expectations, jumping from 25 basis points to 76 basis points [3] Group 2 - The article presents a debate among economists regarding the implications of Trump's visit, with differing views on whether it signals a dangerous politicization of monetary policy or an indication of impending liquidity easing [3] - It emphasizes that market interpretations of news can vary widely, suggesting that the narratives constructed by institutions often shape retail investors' perceptions [3] Group 3 - A reference is made to the oil market dynamics during the 2025 oil price surge, indicating that institutional movements often precede major news events, allowing them to capitalize on market reactions [4][6] - The article critiques Deutsche Bank's analysis of Trump's proposed interest rate cuts, suggesting that the actual savings from such cuts would be minimal, yet the market remains unfazed by this reality [8] Group 4 - The article advises investors to focus on quantitative tools to track institutional movements, likening this to understanding the mechanics behind a magic trick rather than just the performance itself [10] - It concludes with a reflection on the changing nature of central bank independence in the face of populism, while asserting that the fundamental dynamics of financial markets remain unchanged [11]

智通财经APP获悉，对于美联储主席鲍威尔任期的不确定性正促使投资者评估如果美联储提前更换领导 层可能会引发的市场反应。美国总统特朗普多次批评鲍威尔未能足够迅速地降低美国利率。他经常提及 在鲍威尔任期结束前(还有十个月)将其赶下台的可能性，同时又表示解雇他"不太可能"。 特朗普周四表示，在他访问美联储华盛顿总部并参观了被白宫批评称过于昂贵且铺张浪费的两座历史建 筑的改造工程现场后，他与鲍威尔进行了"一次良好的会面"。他称没有必要解雇鲍威尔。 尽管新任美联储主席若态度更倾向于降息，股市或许最终会对其有所期待，但投资者表示，如果鲍威尔 被解职，股市可能会出现大幅下跌。Ablin表示，股市的跌幅会比上周有关鲍威尔即将被解职的报道所 引发的不到 1%的下跌幅度更大。 野村公司发达市场首席经济学家David Seif称，解雇鲍威尔会增加特朗普试图更大程度地掌控美联储的 风险。Seif表示："美联储独立性的丧失会导致通胀不确定性大幅增加，这将促使投资者要求为将资金 长期锁定在美联储而获得更高的回报，从而导致收益率曲线变得更加陡峭。" FP Markets首席分析师 Aaron Hill称，黄金可能是在这种情况下受益的资产。 ...

纽元兑美元NZD/USD跌破0.60，日内跌0.45%。 纽元/美元 ...

市场似乎对这一举措表示认可：特朗普公司股价周一上午较前一交易日收盘价上涨7.2%。过去一周， 该股累计涨幅达9%，股价已逼近20美元。该公司近30亿美元流动资产中，约三分之二都配置了比特 币。 图片来源：Tasos Katopodis—Getty Images 唐纳德·特朗普旗下的媒体集团刚刚购入全球规模最大加密货币的巨额储备。周一上午，特朗普媒体科 技集团（Trump Media and Technology）宣布已购入价值20亿美元的比特币及相关证券，同时预留3亿美 元用于购买比特币期权。 "我们正严格执行公开宣布的战略，推进比特币储备计划，"特朗普媒体科技集团总裁兼首席执行官戴文 ·努尼斯（Devin Nunes）在声明中表示，"这些资产将助力保障公司财务自由。" 特朗普原本持有特朗普媒体科技集团的多数股权，在去年12月就任总统前，他将这些股份转移至一个可 撤销信托中。此次为购买比特币进行的股票发行，稀释了特朗普的持股比例。 在该公司宣布发行25亿美元新股与债务以推进比特币储备计划近两个月后，特朗普集团又进行了这笔巨 额加密货币收购。此举进一步表明，加密货币正日益取代房地产，成为支撑特朗普家族商业帝国的 ...

Core Insights - The success of short-term futures traders is attributed to their solid foundation and rational strategies rather than luck [1][4] - They exhibit a high level of discipline, setting clear profit and loss points, and adhering to them regardless of market fluctuations [1] - Their ability to extract patterns from market chaos allows them to develop replicable strategies based on specific market behaviors [1][4] Group 1 - Short-term traders utilize market language as a key information source, interpreting volume changes and order adjustments to gauge short-term direction [1] - They possess rapid decision-making skills, enabling them to assess market conditions and execute trades within seconds, a result of deep market understanding and practice [1] - Risk awareness is reflected in their position control, where they avoid over-leveraging and adjust positions based on opportunity certainty [1] Group 2 - They accept inevitable losses in short-term trading, focusing on identifying strategy flaws through review rather than attributing failures to luck [4] - Their sensitivity to market sentiment allows them to detect subtle shifts in indices and positions, enhancing their operational alignment with current market dynamics [4] - Continuous learning is essential for maintaining competitiveness, as they adapt strategies to evolving market characteristics and incorporate insights from peers [4] Group 3 - The growth trajectory of these traders serves as an inspiration, demonstrating that short-term trading skills can be developed through time and effort [4] - Their success exemplifies the combination of professional competence and self-discipline, establishing a rational benchmark for short-term trading [4]