宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 黄金隐含"秩序重构"指数：捕捉全球秩序 重构的交易信号 我们认为，黄金价格的惊人涨幅是市场对全球秩序重构预期的直接反映。这一 重构涵盖货币体系多元化、地缘政治格局重塑和金融市场再平衡，具体体现在 以下三个关键驱动因素：一是全球购金热潮，2022~2024 年，全球央行购金规 模创下 50 年新高；二是地缘风险升温，2022~2025 年，俄乌冲突、巴以冲突 令全球担忧地缘冲突升级的避险情绪高涨；三是美元体系的压力，随着美债规 模持续扩大，美债可持续性的担忧不断加剧，美元在全球储备中的权重回落。 ❖ 黄金隐含"秩序重构"指数 我们提出黄金隐含"秩序重构"指数（Gold Implied Order Reconstruction Index， GIORI），旨在量化黄金价格中无法被显性变量解释的波动，揭示全球金融和 政治秩序重构的市场预期。GIORI 指数通过分析显性变量无法解释的价格残 差，提炼市场对非显性风险的定价信号。GIORI 指数的构建逻辑非常简单直 观：如果显性因子拟合模型无法完全解释黄金价格的波动，那么我们认为未被 解释的部分很可能与货币体系多元化、地缘 ...

以下文章来源于i黑马 ，作者i黑马 这是最坏的时代? i黑马 . 让创业者不再孤独@i黑马 这里，认真给大家推荐一下： 6月6日-6月8日，2025 黑马年中精选大课 推荐理由有三个： 第一，黑马名师齐聚 本次大课的名师邀请到了： 卫哲、 香帅、 江南春、 牛文文、贾伟、 章苏阳、 杨明超等。 第二，2025年，要么进化，要么淘汰 2025年全球贸易战升级，AI重构商业底层逻辑资本从狂热转向理性。 不，这是破局者的黄金时代! 你，准备好成为幸存者了吗? 只有当你来到，和AI创业者、行业专家深入链接，才能真的"看见"和"感受"到，这个黄金时代 特有的机遇和新蓝图。 第三，创始人精神激荡 让创业者不再孤独，是创始人牛文文成立创业黑马的初心。年中大课也是各行创业者齐聚一起 的最饱满的交流场景，在这里，你能感受到满满的创始人精神，创业力量，以及收获资源对接 的机会。 用一顿聚会的饭钱，收获2025下半场思路清晰，我个人认为很值。毕竟，方向对了，努力才不 白费。 那么， 6月6日-6月8日，咱们上海见！ 活动详情如下 ↓↓↓ ...

Group 1 - The relationship between power asset concentration and local finance exhibits characteristics of "mutual dependence and dynamic game," involving complex dimensions such as changes in investment subjects, imbalanced revenue distribution, and strengthened policy intervention [1] - In the early reform period, the central government's financial share decreased from 41.6% to 36.7%, while local investment rose to 40%, forcing local governments to raise funds for electricity generation to fill the gap [1] - Local governments have become increasingly reliant on hidden debt mechanisms, with local power companies often depending on provincial company guarantees for loans, leading to rising debt ratios [2] Group 2 - New energy investments in the Sanbei region rely on a "central subsidy + local matching" model, but the subsidy funds come from nationwide industrial and commercial electricity price increases, creating a distorted mechanism [3] - The local retention ratio of electricity value-added tax is only 25%, while the central government retains 75%, leading to significant revenue loss for local governments [4] - Local governments use electricity prices as a tool for industrial policy, resulting in substantial fiscal subsidies that create a fragile balance between electricity price subsidies and tax retention [5] Group 3 - Provincial governments engage in implicit tax competition through electricity price dumping, which hinders cross-provincial transactions and increases local fiscal dependence on local power enterprises [6] - The current pricing mechanism restricts provincial grid investment capabilities, leading to significant annual losses in investment returns [7] - Resource-rich western regions have a high proportion of new energy installations but contribute minimally to tax revenue due to policies like immediate VAT refunds [8] Group 4 - The concentration of state-owned assets in the electricity sector is significant, yet the return on capital is low, prompting local governments to seek alternative revenue sources [9] - Local governments are concerned that cross-regional electricity transactions will weaken their tax base, leading to resistance against such transactions [10] - The concentration of electricity assets is reshaping the underlying logic of central-local financial relationships, highlighting the need for institutional innovation to balance economies of scale with local autonomy [10] Group 5 - In the short term (2025-2027), the reduction of new energy grid connection subsidies is expected to expose local hidden debts, with fiscal gaps in the Sanbei region projected to expand to 1.2% of GDP [10] - In the medium term (2028-2030), the establishment of a unified national electricity market will drive reforms in the fiscal and tax system, potentially adjusting the cross-provincial electricity value-added tax sharing ratio to 40%:60% [11] - In the long term (post-2030), new fiscal tools such as green certificates and carbon taxes are expected to replace traditional electricity revenues, reducing local fiscal dependence from 0.38 to 0.25 [11]

中化新网讯 5月下旬，中石化丁二烯出厂价上调至1.11万元(吨价，下同)，较前一交易日上涨800元。山 东地区主流送到价区间为1.12万～1.19万元，华东地区出罐自提价1.1万～1.13万元，部分区域价格仍维 持高位，创近5年价格新高。 面对丁二烯供需双重博弈，广发期货研究院分析师王海明认为，短期来看，供给收缩是丁二烯价格上涨 的主因，中期需关注下游ABS扩能是否持续。随着新能源汽车和智能家电的快速发展，ABS树脂需求有 望继续增长，从而进一步提振丁二烯市场。(车玉花) 而丁二烯下游市场则呈现"冰火两重天"态势。传统领域如丁苯橡胶、ABS树脂因成本压力出现减产，但 高端应用领域则需求激增。在新能源汽车轮胎方面，轻量化需求推动氢化丁腈橡胶(HNBR)用量增长， 万华化学开发的专用料售价达3.8万元，较通用料溢价120%。在航空航天材料方面，特种丁二烯共聚物 在密封件、胶管等领域的应用增长超30%。这种需求结构变化导致产业链利润向原料端集中。今年前4 个月，丁二烯装置理论盈利达3000～5000元。 业内人士认为，这一轮涨势并非偶然。2024年中国丁二烯总产能达669.7万吨，2025年计划新增100万～ 12 ...

点击上图 ▲立即加入 4月规上工业企业利润同比增加3% 5月27日，国家统计局公布数据显示，1—4月份，规模以上工业企业利润增长1.4%，较1—3月份加快0.6%。从行业看，在41个工业大类行业 中，有23个行业利润同比增长，增长面近六成。4月份，全国规模以上工业企业利润同比增长3%，较3月份加快0.4%。 1—4 月 份 ， 主 要 行 业 利 润 情 况 如 下 ， 计 算 机 、 通 信 和 其 他 电 子 设 备 制 造 业 增 长 11.6% ， 专 用 设 备 制 造 业 增 长 13.2% ， 通 用 设 备 制 造 业 增 长 11.7%，农副食品加工业利润同比增长45.6%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业增长24.5%。汽车制造业下降5.1%，石油和天然气开采业下降6.9%， 煤炭开采和洗选业下降48.9%。（国家统计局官网） ｜点评｜ 4月内需小幅回升，外需具有一定韧性，规上工业企业盈利状况略有修复。4月国际油价下行，在外贸不确定性下，国内企业偏向于去 库存而非补库，原材料需求减弱价格走低。上游企业利润表现承压，但中下游企业成本端回落，利润率提升。设备以旧换新政策持续推进，中 游装备制造业出货量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategic restructuring between Zhongke Shuguang and Haiguang Information signifies a fundamental shift in the development model of China's semiconductor industry, moving from a technology catch-up approach to a value competition model through industry integration [1][3][5]. Group 1: Industry Transformation - The semiconductor industry is at a critical juncture, driven by an AI-powered computing revolution and geopolitical risks that are catalyzing the localization of supply chains [1][3]. - The traditional technology catch-up model, which relied on cost advantages and incremental improvements, is becoming increasingly inadequate as the complexity of technology rises [2][4]. - The restructuring reflects a strategic response to these challenges, aiming to create a comprehensive capability that integrates chip design, system integration, and application optimization [3][5]. Group 2: Value Creation and Competitive Advantage - The merger aims to establish an "end-to-end" value creation capability, allowing the new entity to shift from cost competition to value competition based on technological differentiation and system performance advantages [3][5]. - Predictions indicate that the combined entity could reduce AI training computing costs by 40% and shorten inference latency by 50% within three years through a comprehensive optimization of the "chip-algorithm-heat dissipation" link [3]. - The new company will serve as a core platform in the computing ecosystem, facilitating deep collaboration across various technological modules, which is expected to exponentially enhance overall system value creation [5][6]. Group 3: Ecosystem and Innovation - The restructuring exemplifies the trend of moving from fragmented competition to platform collaboration, highlighting the importance of strategic partnerships in achieving competitive advantages [4][5]. - A complete and controllable industrial ecosystem is essential not only for risk management but also for building innovation capabilities and creating value [5][6]. - The future success of China's semiconductor industry will depend on constructing a globally competitive innovation ecosystem that combines both hard and soft strengths in technological and model innovation [6].

Core Viewpoint - New筑股份 is planning a significant asset restructuring to address competition issues with its controlling shareholder, 四川蜀道清洁能源集团有限公司, by acquiring 60% of its shares and divesting certain subsidiaries [1][3][5]. Group 1: Asset Restructuring Details - New筑股份 announced a temporary suspension of trading on May 26, 2023, to facilitate the restructuring process [1]. - The restructuring involves the acquisition of 60% of 四川蜀道清洁's shares and the sale of 100% stakes in two subsidiaries: 四川发展磁浮科技有限公司 and 成都市新筑交通科技有限公司 [1][4]. - 四川蜀道清洁 has total assets of 308 billion yuan and reported revenue of 1.17 billion yuan with a net profit of 62.34 million yuan for the previous year [2][4]. Group 2: Business Segments and Financial Performance - New筑股份 operates in three main business segments: rail transit, photovoltaic power generation, and bridge functional components, with the latter being primarily represented by 新筑交科 [2][5][6]. - The photovoltaic segment generated approximately 650 million yuan in revenue, accounting for over 26% of total revenue, while rail transit remains the largest segment, contributing over 50% of total revenue [5][6]. - The company reported a total revenue of 2.483 billion yuan last year, with a net loss of 409 million yuan [5][6]. Group 3: Implications of the Restructuring - The restructuring is seen as a strategic move to eliminate competition between New筑股份 and its controlling shareholder, thereby enhancing operational efficiency [3][6]. - The divestment of the bridge functional components business is expected to allow New筑股份 to focus on strengthening its rail transit and renewable energy segments [5][6]. - The restructuring reflects the internal business realignment within the蜀道集团, which recently became the controlling shareholder of New筑股份 [6][7].

以下文章来源于i黑马 ，作者i黑马 i黑马 . 让创业者不再孤独@i黑马 这里，认真给大家推荐一下： 6月6日-6月8日，2025 黑马年中精选大课 第三，创始人精神激荡 推荐理由有三个： 第一，黑马名师齐聚 本次大课的名师邀请到了： 卫哲、 香帅、 江南春、 牛文文、贾伟、 章苏阳、 杨明超等。 第二，2025年，要么进化，要么淘汰 2025年全球贸易战升级，AI重构商业底层逻辑资本从狂热转向理性。 这是最坏的时代? 不，这是破局者的黄金时代! 你，准备好成为幸存者了吗? 只有当你来到，和AI创业者、行业专家深入链接，才能真的"看见"和"感受"到，这个黄金时代 特有的机遇和新蓝图。 让创业者不再孤独，是创始人牛文文成立创业黑马的初心。年中大课也是各行创业者齐聚一起 的最饱满的交流场景，在这里，你能感受到满满的创始人精神，创业力量，以及收获资源对接 的机会。 用一顿聚会的饭钱，收获2025下半场思路清晰，我个人认为很值。毕竟，方向对了，努力才不 白费。 那么， 6月6日-6月8日，咱们上海见！ 活动详情如下 ↓↓↓ ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are under pressure due to various market factors, including geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties, with current trading around $3308.84 per ounce, reflecting a 1.00% decline [1][3]. Economic Data Focus - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. April durable goods orders month-on-month, March FHFA house price index month-on-month, May Conference Board consumer confidence index, and May Dallas Fed business activity index [1]. Market Sentiment and Trade Policy - The Trump administration's threat to impose a 50% tariff on the EU has been postponed to July 9, but market concerns remain. An escalation in trade tensions could increase global economic uncertainty, potentially boosting gold's safe-haven demand [3][5]. - The fluctuating tariff policies may lead to changes in market risk appetite, impacting gold prices in both directions [3]. Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold has faced resistance around $3365, with recent price movements indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend. The price has dropped to around $3320, suggesting a correction phase may persist [3][5]. - Technical indicators show that gold prices are currently adjusting, with the possibility of further declines, particularly if the price breaks below key support levels [5]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, geopolitical issues such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and U.S.-EU trade negotiations will likely drive market volatility [3]. - Mid-term factors include the currency dynamics between the U.S. dollar and euro, as well as developments in the Middle East nuclear crisis, which will influence gold's direction [3]. - Long-term considerations involve the global de-dollarization process and geopolitical restructuring, which may lead to a significant revaluation of gold [3].

Company Insights - Kuaijishan's stock surged to a new high, gaining nearly 60% over the past seven trading days, with a significant increase in market attention towards the yellow wine sector [2] - Kuaijishan launched its sparkling yellow wine in July 2023, targeting younger consumers with a diverse product line that includes various flavors and alcohol content [3] - Kuaijishan's live streaming sales exceeded 10 million yuan within 12 hours, with over 40% of buyers aged 18-35, indicating strong engagement with the younger demographic [2][3] Industry Trends - The yellow wine sector is experiencing increased interest from external capital, as evidenced by Qingdao Beer’s announcement to acquire a 100% stake in Shandong Jimo Yellow Wine Factory for 665 million yuan [2] - The Chinese Alcoholic Beverage Association noted a growing demand for diverse and personalized alcoholic products, with yellow wine being recognized for its health benefits and unique taste [3] - Future market dynamics for the yellow wine industry are expected to shift, with head companies having significant room for market expansion and profit enhancement, driven by evolving consumption scenarios and brand development [4]