Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - New home sales in May showed a month-on-month increase, with a narrowing year-on-year decline. The total new home sales area in 40 cities reached 10.414 million square meters, up 12.4% month-on-month but down 3.2% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 5.6 percentage points compared to April [12][15] - The second-hand housing market showed weakening momentum, with a month-on-month decline in transaction volume and a narrowing year-on-year growth rate. The total transaction area for second-hand homes in 18 cities was 8.104 million square meters, down 15.9% month-on-month but up 3.6% year-on-year, with the year-on-year growth rate narrowing by 8.7 percentage points [20][24] - The land market continues to exhibit a "quality over quantity" trend, with a decrease in transaction volume but an increase in average land prices. The average land premium rate in May was 4.6%, down 3.6 percentage points month-on-month but up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [11][19] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - In May, new home sales area increased month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrowed. The total area sold in 40 cities was 10.414 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.1% for the first five months [12][15] - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase of 14.9% and a year-on-year increase of 10.7%. Notably, Beijing's sales increased by 22% year-on-year, while Shenzhen experienced a decline [13][18] Second-Hand Home Sales - The second-hand home market showed a month-on-month decline in sales, with a year-on-year growth rate narrowing. The total area sold in 18 cities was 8.104 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 19.1% for the first five months [20][24] - First and second-tier cities experienced a decrease in transaction volume, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a shift from positive to negative year-on-year growth [21][25] Land Market - The land market showed a decrease in transaction volume but an increase in average land prices. The average land premium rate was 4.6%, indicating a continued trend of "quality over quantity" [11][19] - The total land transaction area in May was 17.1148 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 9.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [19] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year sales decline of 11.1% in May, with a cumulative decline of 8.4% for the first five months [35] - The land acquisition amount for the top 100 companies decreased month-on-month, with a total acquisition amount of 70.6 billion yuan in May, down 47.4% month-on-month [39] Policy Support - Multiple financial support policies for the housing market were implemented, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates [4][5] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market and enhance financing mechanisms to support housing demand [4][5] Market Performance - The real estate sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index in May, with an absolute return of -0.4% and a relative return of -2.3% [47][48] - The report suggests that the market is still in a phase of adjustment, with ongoing efforts needed to restore confidence and improve supply-demand relationships [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a series of favorable policies aimed at stimulating demand and improving accessibility for potential homebuyers as 2024 approaches, with expectations for significant trends in 2025 [2] Group 1: Policy Changes - Most cities in China have lifted purchase restrictions, allowing more potential buyers to enter the market, except for core areas in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [2] - Financial policies remain accommodative, with mortgage rates dropping to around 3.2%, and down payment ratios reduced from 30% to 15%, effectively lowering the barriers to homeownership [2] - The government has implemented tax relief measures, including reductions in deed tax and value-added tax, to alleviate the financial burden on homebuyers [2] Group 2: Market Trends for 2025 - The market is shifting towards the sale of completed homes, moving away from the pre-sale model, which will enhance buyer confidence and impose higher standards on developers regarding financial strength and project quality [4] - The second-hand housing market is facing significant challenges, with listing volumes in major cities like Shanghai, Chongqing, and Chengdu exceeding 150,000 units, leading to price reductions as sellers seek to close deals amid weak demand [4] - The government aims to provide 6 million units of affordable housing over the next five years, which is expected to ease housing pressure for low-income groups and divert some demand from the commercial housing market [4] Group 3: Financial Outlook - Current mortgage rates are in the range of 3.2% to 3.5%, with predictions that they may drop below 3% in 2025 to stimulate demand amid a declining market [6] - The overall trend for housing prices is expected to be "stable with a downward bias," as the market has entered a long-term adjustment phase, with significant price drops observed in cities like Zhengzhou and Tianjin [8] - For instance, in Shanghai, prices have decreased from nearly 100,000 yuan per square meter to approximately 65,000 yuan per square meter, reflecting a decline of over 30% [8]

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming announcements from the Bank of Japan regarding interest rates and the U.S. retail sales data for May, indicating potential market movements [1] - It mentions that the price of finished oil products may experience the largest increase of the year, suggesting significant implications for the energy sector [1]

Group 1 - Domestic refined oil prices are set to enter a new round of adjustment window [1] - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision [1] - The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference at 14:30 [1] Group 2 - The IEA will release its monthly oil market report at 16:00 [1] - Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for June will be published at 17:00 [1] - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index for June will also be released at 17:00 [1] Group 3 - The U.S. will report May retail sales month-on-month and May import price index month-on-month at 20:30 [1] - U.S. industrial production month-on-month for May will be reported at 21:15 [1] - The NAHB housing market index for June and April business inventories month-on-month will be released at 22:00 [1] Group 4 - The Bank of Canada will publish the minutes of its monetary policy meeting the next day [1] - The U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 13 will be reported at 04:30 the next day [1]

更能准确反映实际消费趋势的"核心零售销售数据"(即剔除汽车、汽油、建材及餐饮服务)预计将较4月 份上升0.2%，该项数据对GDP计算具有重要意义。 由于消费者在此前为规避关税可能带来的价格上涨而提前购物，美国5月份的零售销售或出现明显下 滑。经济学家预计，美国消费者在当月放缓了信用卡与借记卡的使用，整体消费热情趋冷。 智通财经APP获悉，根据FactSet的调查，5月美国零售销售预计将环比下降0.7%，相比4月份仅0.1%的微 增，这一跌幅格外显眼。而Pantheon Macroeconomics的经济学家Sam Tombs则预测，5月零售销售降幅 或达到1%，若成真将是自2023年3月以来的最大月度跌幅。 美国商务部人口普查局将于周二上午8:30公布最新的零售及餐饮服务业销售初步月度数据，投资者正在 密切关注。 汽油价格下滑导致加油站销售额减少，被认为是整体零售额下降的主要推力之一。此外，汽车和家庭装 修用品的支出也被预计将有所疲软。 扣除汽车后，5月零售销售预计将环比上升0.1%；而芝加哥联储的"零售贸易先行指标模型"则估算该项 增长为0.3%，为季调后的结果。 美国银行汇总的信用卡与借记卡数据显示，5月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a new model of real estate development to stabilize and promote healthy growth in the real estate market, as highlighted in a recent State Council meeting led by Premier Li Qiang [3]. Group 1: Real Estate Policy Developments - The State Council meeting called for a focus on long-term strategies and the establishment of foundational systems to support real estate development [3]. - There is an emphasis on the construction of "good houses" and the integration of urban renewal mechanisms to enhance policy coordination across planning, land, finance, and other areas [3]. - The meeting proposed a nationwide assessment of supplied land and ongoing projects to optimize existing policies and improve their effectiveness [3]. Group 2: Local Government Initiatives - Guangzhou's proposal to eliminate restrictive measures and reduce down payment ratios and interest rates aims to stimulate consumer demand in the housing market [4]. - The plan includes significant investments in the renovation of old residential areas and the construction of new projects, with a target of over 150 old residential area renovations and 9,000 elevator updates by 2025 [4]. - The initiative to use special loans for purchasing existing commercial housing as resettlement housing is expected to further support the real estate sector [4]. Group 3: Market Performance and Data - The market performance indicators show a decline in the CITIC building materials index by 2.16% and the CITIC construction index by 1.27% [5]. - The average price of national PO42.5 cement increased slightly to 365.70 yuan/ton, while the national cement enterprise shipment rate decreased by 2.3 percentage points [5]. - Glass prices fell to 1,203 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in inventory levels [6].

加拿大5月成屋销售月率 3.6%，前值-0.10%。 ...

6月16日，国家统计局发布2025年5月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况。2025年5月份，70个 大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降，同比降幅继续收窄。 一、各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降 5月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比由上月持平转为下降0.2%。其中，上海上涨0.7%，北京、 广州和深圳分别下降0.4%、0.8%和0.4%。 5月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.7%，降幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点。其中北京、上海、广 州和深圳分别下降0.8%、0.7%、0.8%和0.5%。二三线城市二手住宅销售价格环比均下降0.5%，降幅均 扩大0.1个百分点。 二、各线城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅继续收窄 5月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比下降1.7%，降幅比上月收窄0.4个百分点。其中，上海上涨 5.9%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降4.3%、5.8%和2.6%。 二三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比分别下降3.5%和4.9%，降幅分别收窄0.4个和0.5个百分 点。 5月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格同比下降2.7%，降幅比上月收窄0.5个百分点。其中，北京、上海、 广州和深圳分别 ...

2025 年 5 月经济数据点评 5 月经济数据的"五大变数" 2025 年 06 月 16 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：张云杰 研究助理：钟渝梅 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525020002 执业证号：S0100124080017 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhangyunjie@mszq.com 邮箱：zhongyumei@mszq.com ➢ 事件： 6 月 16 日，国家统计局发布 5 月份国民经济运行数据。 ➢ 产业韧性和需求不足是当下经济运行的一体两面，5 月经济所呈现出的"生 产稳、投资软，消费升"，表明二季度仍处于政策的观察期。就总量而言，5 月二 产（工业增加值）和三产（服务业生产指数）增速均在 6%附近，表明二季度 GDP 增速 5%以上基本无虞；但结构来看，关税逆风下行业的冷热不均叠加物价走低， 下半年经济所面临的一些新的"变数"正在显现： ➢ 变数一：消费强于投资能否持续？在今年"贸易摩擦"升温的背景下，消费 的表现相对好于投资。"解构"消费，"以旧换新"等政策支持起到了至关重要的 作用，并与"618" ...

3、深交所公告，港股通标的证券名单发生调整并自2025年06月16日起生效，调入宁德时代。 4、截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.05%，深证成指涨0.13%，创业板指涨0.37%。恒生指数跌0.12%，恒生科技 指数涨0.15%。 1、国家统计局数据显示，5月份规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.8%，1—5月份规模以上工业增加值同 比增长6.3%。1—5月份全国固定资产投资同比增长3.7%。5月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%，1 —5月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长5.0%。 2、国家统计局数据显示，5月份，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降，同比降幅继 续收窄。 智通财经6月16日午间新闻精选 ...