以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者田亚雄 刘昊 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并 不把你带到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 田亚雄 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 新一轮供给侧变局中，尚未有时间表和实施的路线，但市场的氛围整体围绕产能变化预期、成本提升预期进行交易，且击鼓 传花在碳酸锂和工业硅上演之后，或正迈向情绪定价的高点。 反过度竞争在7月初提出之后，到目前为止，尚未公布明确的时间表或可直接实施的方案，这反映出实施的复杂性。参考过往 的行业低价竞争，未来的终局措施或以：建立成本锚定与违规惩戒机制、行政手段加速淘汰落后产能以及审慎补贴发放等方 式展开。 供给侧正成为商品当下定价的重中之重，从焦煤到光伏产业链。 后续成本锚定成为价格中枢的关键位置。 国产煤成本相对分化，山西国企精煤完全成本超1000元/吨（高人工成本+安全投 入），民企成本约700–900元/吨，当前现货价（山西 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The upward movement of the lithium carbonate futures market is due to domestic anti - involution measures, but the current market deviates significantly from the fundamentals, and the rebound height is limited under the loose supply - demand pattern [3]. - The urea market has seen a price drop on the futures side, and although export orders are being executed, the domestic supply - demand remains loose, and the subsequent quota issue may continue to affect the market, with limited room for a deep decline [4]. - The price of Shanghai copper has declined this week mainly due to the proposed 50% copper tariff by the US. The supply - side pressure has eased, and the market is under pressure. However, if the Fed's independence is compromised and the US dollar declines, it will support the market, and the downside space for copper is limited [9]. - The easing of Middle East geopolitical risks has alleviated concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. The market should pay attention to the subsequent development of the situation in the Middle East. The current market has factored in the accelerated production increase by OPEC +, and it is expected that crude oil prices will oscillate strongly in the near term [11]. - It is recommended to go long on the asphalt 09 - 12 spread on dips as it gradually enters the peak season [13]. - PP, plastic, PVC, and other products are expected to oscillate at low levels due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, trade policies, and seasonal impacts [14][16][17]. - The price of soybean oil is approaching the pressure level of 8000 yuan/ton, and the supply is abundant while the demand is under pressure. In the long - term, the demand in the bio - fuel industry may affect the price trend [19]. - The price of soybean meal is oscillating strongly, and the supply is increasing. The subsequent demand may increase with the rise in pig - breeding profits. In the long - term, factors such as US soybean planting area and Sino - US tariffs need to be observed [22]. - The short - term sentiment in the steel market has improved, but the steel demand is greatly affected by seasonal factors. It is expected that the upward momentum of steel prices will be limited, and the market will continue to oscillate [25]. - The hot - rolled coil market is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to production, inventory, PMI, and tariff policies [26]. - The short - term market for coking coal remains strong, mainly due to the phased reduction in supply and the expectation of capacity clearance [28]. Summary by Product Lithium Carbonate - The futures market rose nearly 4% today, with the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate at 64,650 yuan/ton and industrial - grade at 63,050 yuan/ton, both up 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3]. - The supply is abundant, with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 62% and an increase in June production to 74,000 tons. The inventory is accumulating, and the pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term [3]. - The downstream is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. The consumption data of new - energy vehicles in June increased, with retail sales of 1.071 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month increase of 4% [3]. Urea - The futures market opened lower and weakened today. The spot price has risen slightly since the weekend, mainly due to the strong performance of last week's futures [4]. - The supply side has pressure, with the daily output fluctuating around 200,000 tons, and new production capacity will be gradually put into operation [4]. - The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the agricultural demand in the main delivery areas is decreasing. The inventory is decreasing, which boosts the market [4]. Shanghai Copper - The price of Shanghai copper has been affected by the Fed's potential interest - rate cut and the US tariff policy. The proposed 50% copper tariff by the US has led to a decline in prices [9]. - The supply - side pressure has eased, with the processing fees of copper smelters stabilizing, and the copper concentrate inventory increasing. The tight supply expectation has been alleviated [9]. - The downstream demand is weak, with a decline in the cable start - up rate in June and the air - conditioning industry entering the off - season [9]. Crude Oil - The easing of Middle East geopolitical risks has reduced concerns about supply disruptions, but the subsequent development of the situation still needs attention [11]. - The market has factored in the accelerated production increase by OPEC + in August (an increase of 548,000 barrels per day), and OPEC has lowered the global oil demand forecast for the next four years [11]. - The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the near term due to factors such as the seasonal peak season and potential US sanctions on Russian oil [11]. Asphalt - The supply side has seen an increase in the start - up rate, with a planned production of 2.542 million tons in July, a month - on - month increase of 6.0% and a year - on - year increase of 23.6% [12]. - The downstream start - up rate has mostly declined, affected by funds and weather. The inventory of refineries has increased slightly but remains at a low level in recent years [12]. - It is recommended to go long on the asphalt 09 - 12 spread on dips as it enters the peak season [13]. PP - The downstream start - up rate has declined, and the US tariff policy is unfavorable for exports. The upstream propane import is restricted [14]. - The supply side has new production capacity, and the start - up rate of enterprises has increased. The inventory pressure is still large, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The start - up rate has decreased, and the downstream start - up rate is at a low level. The US tariff policy affects exports, and the upstream ethane import is restricted [15]. - New production capacity has been put into operation, and the start - up rate has increased slightly. The demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large, with a low - level oscillation expected [16]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The start - up rate has decreased, and the downstream demand is weak. The export is restricted by policies [17]. - The inventory is high, and new production capacity is about to be put into operation. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Soybean Oil - The price of the main 09 contract has increased slightly, approaching the 8000 yuan/ton pressure level [18]. - The supply is abundant, with a good outlook for US soybean production and sufficient domestic supply in July [19]. - The demand is under pressure due to the price advantage of palm oil and the impact of high - temperature weather. In the long - term, the demand in the bio - fuel industry may affect the price [19]. Soybean Meal - The price of the main 09 contract has oscillated strongly, and the market sentiment has slightly improved [20]. - The supply is increasing, and the demand may increase with the rise in pig - breeding profits. The current downstream replenishment is weak [22]. - In the long - term, factors such as US soybean planting area and Sino - US tariffs need to be observed [22]. Rebar - The futures market has shown a pattern of "rising and then falling, closing slightly higher". The supply reduction expectation is strong, but the actual implementation is limited [23]. - The demand is in the off - season, with a decline in daily average trading volume, but the weekly apparent consumption remains above 2.2 million tons [23]. - The inventory is decreasing, and the cost support is strong in the short term. The market is expected to oscillate [25]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The futures market has shown a pattern of "rising and then being blocked, closing slightly higher". The supply pressure is increasing, and the weekly output is expected to exceed 3.25 million tons [26]. - The demand is weak, with the weekly apparent consumption remaining below 1.8 million tons. The inventory transfer from factories to social warehouses is slow [26]. - The cost provides support, and it is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [26]. Coking Coal - The price has increased today. The supply pressure has eased due to the reduction in Mongolian coal imports and the resumption of domestic mines [27]. - The market is affected by anti - involution measures, and the inventory has been transferred downward. The short - term market is strong [28].

近日，香港连锁餐饮巨头景乐集团突然宣布"终止业务"，一夜之间，集团写字楼清空、官方网站关闭，当地消费者和员工直呼"震惊"。 景乐集团的结业是当前香港餐饮市场的缩影——餐饮闭店潮正在全港蔓延。近半年来已有超过20家连锁餐饮品牌宣布结业，其中不乏经营超过30年的老 店。 香港餐饮市场，到底发生了什么？ 一、倒闭潮席卷香港 餐饮闭店潮正在席卷香港，据红餐网不完全统计，仅近两个月，就有多家连锁品牌、老店宣布结业。 创立33年、巅峰时期有30多家门店的连锁粥店品牌"海皇粥店"，于5月初发布公告称全线结业，原因是经营环境恶化、财务危机等。 已有44年历史的连锁茶餐厅"金装炖奶佬"的最后一家门店，也于5月29日停止营业，该品牌全盛期在全港曾有24家门店。 △图片来源：Facebook全港店铺执笠结业消息关注组 创立于1990年的港式火锅店"春夏秋冬"于5月底停业，在香港还未流行火锅的年代，该店首创"全年365天打边炉"的概念，是一代香港人的宵夜回忆。 6月24日，已创立41年的烘焙品牌"大班面包西饼"亦宣布全线结业。大班面包西饼在1989年首创冰皮月饼，并就此打响品牌知名度。 不仅本地品牌接连倒下，不少国际品牌在香港也相继 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing pressure from weak demand and high costs, leading to a focus on policy-driven capacity optimization to alleviate profitability issues [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shenyin Wanguo Steel Index has rebounded by 11.86% since June 23, while the Wind All A Index increased by 6.53% during the same period [1]. - In July, the Shenyin Wanguo Steel Index rose by 9.31%, marking the largest monthly increase since October 2024, with 21 stocks in the steel sector rising over 10% [4]. Group 2: Company Earnings Forecasts - Eight steel companies have released their mid-year earnings forecasts, with Shougang Co. expecting a net profit of 642 to 672 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.62% to 70.22% [3]. - Shandong Steel anticipates a net profit of 12.71 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 98.1 million yuan [2]. - Fushun Special Steel and Hangang Co. are expected to report losses, with Fushun projecting a loss of 260 to 300 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 214.06% to 231.6% [3]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The steel industry has been in a downward cycle for four years, with approximately 30% of steel companies still reporting losses as of the latest financial reports [5]. - The demand for steel, particularly from the real estate sector, has significantly declined, with demand dropping from 377 million tons in March 2020 to 215 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 42.9% [5]. - The focus on cost reduction has become prevalent among steel companies, with raw material prices significantly impacting profitability [5]. Group 4: Policy and Structural Changes - Recent central government meetings have emphasized the need to eliminate outdated production capacity, strengthening expectations for supply contraction in the steel industry [4][6]. - The current round of "anti-involution" policies aims to optimize supply and demand dynamics, with a focus on differentiated control of production based on efficiency and environmental standards [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cement industry [6][27]. Core Insights - The cement industry is expected to see significant improvement in performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, driven by anti-involution measures and a focus on high-quality development [1][4]. - The historical success of supply-side reforms has led to a reduction in new cement production lines, alleviating supply-demand imbalances, but recent market demand declines have intensified competition [2][3]. - The regulatory framework for anti-involution policies is being strengthened, with measures to address overproduction expected to be a key focus in the second half of 2025 [3][4]. - Companies with integrated operations and global expansion strategies are positioned for long-term growth, with specific recommendations for Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material [1][4][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The cement industry has experienced a significant drop in average prices, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% as of July 11, 2025, leading to a renewed call for anti-involution measures [2][3]. Performance Forecasts - Five cement companies have reported impressive performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with some expecting net profit increases of over 100% year-on-year [4][8]. Policy Developments - Recent policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the inclusion of the cement industry in carbon emissions trading are expected to enhance the regulatory framework for managing overproduction [3][4]. Company Recommendations - The report highlights Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material as key investment opportunities due to their competitive advantages in scale, cost, and energy efficiency [1][4][8].

| [Table_Author] 分析师: | 张河生 | | --- | --- | | Tel: | 021-53686158 | | E-mail: | zhanghesheng@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870523100004 | [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《关注供给侧改革预期升温带来的投资机 会》 ——2025 年 07月 07日 《关注经贸协议最终落地情况》 ——2025 年 07月 01日 《中东地缘冲突再升级，资本市场短期受 影响》 ——2025 年 06月 25日 A 股投资者风险偏好有望保持高位 ——固收&宏观周报（20250707-20250713） [Table_I 日期 ndustry] : shzqdatemark 2025年07月14日 [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 美股下跌，纳斯达克中国科技股与恒生指数上涨。 过去一周（20250707-20250713），纳斯达克、标普 500 指数与道 琼斯工业平均指数分别变化-0.08%、-0.31%与-1.02%，纳斯达克中国 科技股指数变化 1.83%；同时期恒生指数变化 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Market performance: Last Friday, precious metal prices rose, and silver prices soared due to expectations of additional tariffs [1]. - Fundamental factors: China and the US foreign ministers met in Kuala Lumpur, agreeing to strengthen communication and dialogue. Trump announced a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU starting August 1st. Fed Chairman Powell might consider resigning. Domestic gold ETFs had outflows, and inventories in various locations changed [1]. - Trading strategy: For gold, considering the unchanged de - dollarization logic, it is recommended to go long. For silver, short - term risk - avoidance is advised with long positions closed, but in the long - term, industrial silver use is turning downward [1]. Group 2: Base Metals Copper - Market performance: On Friday, copper prices oscillated weakly [2]. - Fundamental factors: Trump unexpectedly increased tariffs on most countries, leading to lower market risk appetite. After the proposed 50% tariff on copper on August 1st, London and domestic inventories increased. The long - term copper price has upward momentum due to the tight copper mine situation and global fiscal expansion expectations [2]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [2]. Aluminum - Market performance: On Friday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2508 contract decreased by 0.02% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production with an increase in weekly operating capacity. Demand - side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased [2]. - Trading strategy: The domestic aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, supporting the price. However, due to macro uncertainties and weak downstream demand, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Alumina - Market performance: On Friday, the closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 2.83% compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, alumina plants' production was stable. Demand - side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading strategy: Some northern alumina plants are in the maintenance period, causing a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The market is in a game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended to operate within a range and partially close long positions [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: On Thursday, the main 09 contract opened higher and then oscillated. The price decreased by 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 13,427 lots [3]. - Fundamental factors: Last week, the market rebounded due to the "anti - involution" sentiment. Supply - side, Yunnan contributed a small increase in start - up. Demand - side, polysilicon start - up was stable, organic silicon production was stable, and the aluminum alloy downstream was in the off - season [3]. - Trading strategy: After the futures price rebound, different cost manufacturers will gradually hedge. There is an expectation of increased start - up, but short - term support exists. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: On Friday, the main LC2509 contract closed at 64,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, the expected production in July increased by 3.92% month - on - month. Demand - side, the downstream production plan increased marginally, but inventory continued to reach new highs [3]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell the far - month LC2511 contract at high levels [3]. Polysilicon - Market performance: On Friday, the main 08 contract opened higher and then oscillated. The price decreased by 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 12,676 lots [3]. - Fundamental factors: Last week, the market rose significantly due to "anti - involution" expectations. Supply - side, production increased slightly, and there is a复产 expectation. Demand - side, the production plan of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased in July [3]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the progress of leading enterprises in solving supply - demand imbalances and the actual procurement price in the silicon wafer market next week. Partially close long positions [3]. Tin - Market performance: On Friday, tin prices oscillated [3]. - Fundamental factors: Trump's additional tariffs slightly suppressed risk appetite. Supply - side, the tin mine situation remained tight, but the复产 expectation pressured the price. Demand - side, downstream procurement was on - demand, and global weekly inventory decreased [3]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a weak - oscillation - within - a - range approach [3]. Group 3: Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main 2510 contract of rebar oscillated weakly, closing at 3,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamental factors: The supply and demand of building materials were both weak, but low production reduced inventory pressure. The supply and demand of steel were balanced. Market sentiment improved, and macro data will have a significant impact this week [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see and try the 10/1 reverse spread of rebar. The reference range for RB10 is 3,100 - 3,160 [4]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The main 2509 contract of iron ore oscillated strongly, closing at 764 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamental factors: The supply and demand of iron ore were neutral. Steel mill profits expanded marginally, and production will remain stable. Supply followed the seasonal pattern. Market sentiment improved, and macro data will be important this week [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see. Layout a long position in the 2605 coil - to - ore ratio. The reference range for I09 is 750 - 780 [4]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The main 2509 contract of coking coal oscillated strongly, closing at 921.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamental factors: Iron production decreased slightly, and steel mill profits expanded. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the first round of price increases is being discussed. Supply - side inventory is differentiated. Market sentiment improved, and macro data will matter this week [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see. The reference range for JM09 is 890 - 930 [4]. Group 4: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans fell due to a slightly bearish USDA report [5]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, the near - term international supply is loose, and the long - term is expected to be loose. Demand - side, South America is dominant in the short - term, and there are uncertainties in US soybean production and tariff policies [5]. - Trading strategy: Short - term, US soybeans are in a range - bound oscillation. Domestic soybeans follow international cost. Pay attention to weather and tariff policies [5]. Corn - Market performance: The 2509 contract of corn continued to decline, and the spot price also fell [5][6]. - Fundamental factors: This year's supply - demand is tightening marginally. Substitute imports decreased, but wheat substitution and import grain auctions affect the price. The spot price is expected to be weak [6]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the low auction turnover rate of imported corn [6]. Sugar - Market performance: ICE raw sugar 10 contract had a weekly increase of 1.85%, and Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract had a weekly increase of 0.21% [6]. - Fundamental factors: The domestic commodity market sentiment was good, and domestic and international markets rebounded together. Import sugar arrivals are increasing, and the 09 contract is expected to be weak [6]. - Trading strategy: In the futures market, go short at high levels; in the options market, sell call options [6]. Cotton - Market performance: Last Friday, US cotton prices oscillated and fell. Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated upward [6]. - Fundamental factors: International data adjustments had little impact. Market sentiment was bearish. Domestically, low commercial inventories were concerned, but downstream start - up rates decreased and product inventories increased [6]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [6]. Palm Oil - Market performance: Recently, palm oil has been strong, and the trading center has shifted upward [6]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, production in the producing areas weakened marginally. Demand - side, exports decreased month - on - month, but there is support in annual demand [6]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, P is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to overweight in the sector, and the annual supply is expected to be tight. Pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [6]. Eggs - Market performance: The 2508 contract of eggs oscillated narrowly, and the spot price increased [6]. - Fundamental factors: Farmers are in losses, and old hen culling is expected to decrease. Supply is high, and demand is affected by price and weather. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate due to sufficient supply and cost support [6]. Hogs - Market performance: The 2509 contract of hogs oscillated narrowly, and the spot price had a north - up and south - down pattern [6]. - Fundamental factors: Consumption is seasonally weak, slaughterhouses are reducing losses, and supply is increasing. The price is expected to decline in the medium - term [6]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust due to weak demand [6]. Apples - Market performance: The main contract had a weekly increase of 0.49%. Apple prices in Shandong were stable [6][7]. - Fundamental factors: The opening price of new - season early - maturing apples increased. There are differences in this year's production. Current consumption is weak, and the market has few contradictions [7]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see [7]. Group 5: Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: On Friday, the main LLDPE contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in North China was 7,200 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [7]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, new plants were put into operation, and domestic supply increased. Import is expected to decrease. Demand - side, it is the end of the off - season for agricultural film [7]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high levels [7]. PVC - Market performance: The v09 contract closed at 4,980, a decrease of 0.5% [7]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is expected to increase, and social inventory is accumulating. Wait for the implementation of production - cut policies [7]. - Trading strategy: Close short positions and wait and see as the rebound lacks momentum [7]. PTA - Market performance: PX CFR China price was 837 US dollars/ton, and PTA spot price was 4,710 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamental factors: PX supply is low, and PTA supply is increasing. Polyester load decreased, and the supply - demand is expected to be loose [7]. - Trading strategy: Go long on PX, look for short - term positive spread opportunities in PTA, and short - sell processing fees in the long - term [7]. Glass - Market performance: The fg09 contract closed at 1,086, an increase of 2% [7][8]. - Fundamental factors: Spot sales improved, supply is increasing, and inventory is decreasing. The downstream situation is not good, and the valuation is complex [7][8]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see and follow the implementation of production - cut policies [8]. PP - Market performance: On Friday, the main PP contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in East China was 7,100 yuan/ton, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [8]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is increasing, and demand is differentiated. The export situation of downstream products is worthy of attention [8]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will oscillate weakly. In the long - term, short - sell far - month contracts at high levels [8]. MEG - Market performance: The East China spot price of MEG was 4,384 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is at a high level, and inventory is at a low level. Polyester load decreased, and the supply - demand is balanced [8]. - Trading strategy: MEG is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels [8]. Crude Oil - Market performance: Last week, oil prices oscillated strongly due to low inventory and stable demand [8]. - Fundamental factors: US gasoline demand was stable. OPEC+ and non - OPEC countries will increase production, and the market is expected to be oversupplied, especially in the fourth quarter [8]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to inventory accumulation and short - sell at high levels [8]. EB - Market performance: On Friday, the main EB contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in East China was 7,730 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [8][9]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, pure benzene and styrene inventories have different trends. Demand - side, downstream profits are poor, and product inventory is high. Export demand is a key factor [8][9]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will oscillate. In the long - term, short - sell far - month contracts at high levels [9]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The sa09 contract closed at 1,214, a decrease of 0.9% [9]. - Fundamental factors: Supply increased as a plant resumed production, and inventory accumulated. Downstream demand from photovoltaic glass is weak [9]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell at high levels as the fundamentals are weak [9].

| 五、宏观信息 | | | --- | --- | | 上交所发布《科创板上市公司自律监管指引第5号-科创成长层》。上交所相关负责人答记者问表示，这次改革没有针对未盈利企业纳入科创成长层设置额外的 | 上市门槛，存量32家未盈利企业将自指引发布实施之日起进入科创成长层，新注册的未盈利企业将自上市之日起进入。本次改革没有对个人投资者参与科创成 | | 长层股票交易新增投资交易门槛，仍为具备"50万元资产+2年经验"的资金门槛和投资经验即可。投资者投资科创成长层新注册的未盈利科技型企业之前需要 | | | 。科创成长层企业按照规定发布符合调出条件的公告后，上交所原则上在2个交易日内将企业调出。 | 签署专门风险揭示书。科创成长层调出条件实施"新老划断"。存量企业调出条件保持不变，仍为上市后首次实现盈利，同时提高新注册未盈利企业调出条件 | | 外交部长王毅在北京会见俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫。王毅表示，上合组织是开展全面战略协作、倡导多边主义、加强务实合作、增进全球南方团结的重要平台。中 方现任轮值主席国，我们愿同俄方及其它成员国共同筹备好天津峰会，规划未来发展方向，赋能各领域合作，推动上合组织建设迈上新台阶。 | | ...

证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*专题报告 2025 年 07 月 14 日 投资策略研究 苦于"弱现实"久矣，正视我们在改善——周度策略行业配置观点 一周热点事件复盘：特朗普施压巴西，中国 CPI&PPI 分化，台积电中报 数据揭示全球 AI 竞赛仍在继续。本周（2025 年 7 月 7 日-2025 年 7 月 11 日）A 股延续升势，上证指数站稳 3500 点，上证指数周涨 1.09%，深证成 指周涨 1.78%，创业板指周涨 2.35%，科创 50 周涨 0.98%，全市场日均成 交额 1.50 万亿元；市场结构呈现显著分化：科技成长主线中半导体受美 国取消芯片设计软件出口限制提振，但消费电子链受美国对巴西等 6 国加 征关税冲击（8 月 1 日生效）承压，创新药受益于医保局政策和中报业绩 预期，本周行情表现出较强的持续性；周期与金融板块强势崛起，中央财 经委会议定调"反内卷"政策直接驱动钢、光伏玻璃板块上涨，金融板块 受到市场对政策预期的影响，表现较为亮眼，市场对于银行板块的关注度 有所提升，外部风险（美欧贸易谈判延期缓和情绪）与政策预期（反内卷 扩内需）共同作用下，市场在量能支撑下突破关键点位，但 ...

2025 第（126）期 发布日期：2025-07-14 中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 号 | | 宏观指标 | 2025/7/14 | 2025/7/11 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | | | | 08:00 | 15:00 | | | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44371.51 | 44650.64 | -279.130 | -0.625 | | | | 纳斯达克指数 | 20585.53 | 20630.66 | -45.130 | -0.219 | | 中原期货研究咨询部 | | 标普500 | 6259.75 | 6280.46 | -20.710 | -0.330 | | 0371-58620081 | | 恒生指数 SHIBOR隔夜 | 24139.57 1.33 | 24028.37 1.32 | 111.20 0.017 | 0.463 1.292 | | 0371-58620083 | | ...