证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*专题报告 2025 年 07 月 14 日 投资策略研究 苦于"弱现实"久矣，正视我们在改善——周度策略行业配置观点 一周热点事件复盘：特朗普施压巴西，中国 CPI&PPI 分化，台积电中报 数据揭示全球 AI 竞赛仍在继续。本周（2025 年 7 月 7 日-2025 年 7 月 11 日）A 股延续升势，上证指数站稳 3500 点，上证指数周涨 1.09%，深证成 指周涨 1.78%，创业板指周涨 2.35%，科创 50 周涨 0.98%，全市场日均成 交额 1.50 万亿元；市场结构呈现显著分化：科技成长主线中半导体受美 国取消芯片设计软件出口限制提振，但消费电子链受美国对巴西等 6 国加 征关税冲击（8 月 1 日生效）承压，创新药受益于医保局政策和中报业绩 预期，本周行情表现出较强的持续性；周期与金融板块强势崛起，中央财 经委会议定调"反内卷"政策直接驱动钢、光伏玻璃板块上涨，金融板块 受到市场对政策预期的影响，表现较为亮眼，市场对于银行板块的关注度 有所提升，外部风险（美欧贸易谈判延期缓和情绪）与政策预期（反内卷 扩内需）共同作用下，市场在量能支撑下突破关键点位，但 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【 短 评 - 螺 纹 钢 】 Mysteel 调 研 247 家 钢 厂 高 炉 开 工 率 83.15%，环比上周减少0.31个百分点；高炉炼铁产能利用率 89.9%，环比上周减少0.39个百分点；钢厂盈利率59.74%，环比 上周增加0.43个百分点；日均铁水产量239.81万吨，环比上周 减少1.04万吨。评：反内卷情绪继续发酵，发改委提到加快新 型城镇化，市场对于棚改重启的预期升温，市场情绪表现积 极。淡季深入，降雨高温天气影响不断，螺纹需求回落，库存 延续去化。淡季基本面矛盾并不明显，"反内卷"政策叠加山 西限产消息形成的供给侧收缩预期，以及"城市更新"等需求 侧改善预期共同推动，宏观情绪升温，预计短期盘面表现震荡 偏强运行。 【短评-原油】IEA在月报：今年全球石油供应量较之前的 预测增加30万桶/日至210万桶/日。但近期石油需求显著放缓， 将2025年平均石油需求增长预期下调至70.4万桶/日，将2026年 平均石油需求增长预期下调至72.2万桶/日；贝克休斯公布的数 据显示，截止7月11日的一周，美国在线钻探油井数量424座， 比前周减少1座，为2021年9月份 ...

Group 1: Coal Sector Insights - The coal sector experienced a significant boost on July 14, with stocks like Zhengzhou Coal Power hitting the daily limit up, and other companies such as Shanxi Coal International and Liaoning Energy also seeing substantial gains [4][7]. - The China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association held a meeting emphasizing the need for coal companies to recognize the severe imbalance in supply and demand, and to strictly implement long-term contracts for electricity coal [7]. - The meeting also highlighted the importance of maintaining safety and stability in production, improving coal supply quality, and addressing "involution" competition within the industry [7]. Group 2: Market Performance - On July 14, the A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.11% and 0.45% respectively [15]. - A total of 3,179 stocks rose, with 72 hitting the daily limit up, while 2,064 stocks declined, including 18 that hit the daily limit down [16][17]. - The total trading volume reached 14,809.22 billion CNY, with a total of 122,924.9 million shares traded [17]. Group 3: Other Sector Developments - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to stimulate market liquidity and has drawn comparisons to the "Belt and Road Initiative" in terms of its long-term narrative potential [8]. - Various sectors, including construction, steel, and cement, have expressed intentions to address structural contradictions within their industries, with specific policies anticipated to be introduced soon [9]. - In Dongguan, a new plan was released to promote high-quality service consumption, including initiatives to enhance dining experiences and expand elderly care services [11][13].

超长债周报 情绪压制，超长债小跌 核心观点 固定收益周报 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月14日 30 年国债：截至 7 月 11 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 21BP，处于 历史偏低水平。从国内经济数据来看，5 月经济依然展现出韧性。我们 测算的 5 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 5.0%，较 4 月回落 0.1%，但是仍高于 全年经济增速目标值。通胀方面，6 月 CPI 为 0.1%，PPI-3.6%，通缩风 险依存。近期 5 月出口加速下滑，国内房价环比转负，国内经济依然面 临下行压力。我们认为，当前仍处于"反内卷"运动的早期，对债市影 响有限，随着 10 年期国债往 1.7%靠拢，债市机会大于风险。不过当前 30 年国债期限利差依然偏低，期限利差保护度有限。 20 年国开债：截至 7 月 11 日，20 年国开债和 20 年国债利差为 3BP，处 于历史极低位置。从国内经济数据来看，5 月经济依然展现出韧性。我 们测算的 5 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 5.0%，较 4 月回落 0.1%，但是仍高 于全年经济增速目标值。通胀方面，6 月 CPI 为 0.1%，PPI-3.6%，通缩 风险依 ...

2025 第（126）期 发布日期：2025-07-14 中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 号 | | 宏观指标 | 2025/7/14 | 2025/7/11 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | | | | 08:00 | 15:00 | | | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44371.51 | 44650.64 | -279.130 | -0.625 | | | | 纳斯达克指数 | 20585.53 | 20630.66 | -45.130 | -0.219 | | 中原期货研究咨询部 | | 标普500 | 6259.75 | 6280.46 | -20.710 | -0.330 | | 0371-58620081 | | 恒生指数 SHIBOR隔夜 | 24139.57 1.33 | 24028.37 1.32 | 111.20 0.017 | 0.463 1.292 | | 0371-58620083 | | ...

报告日期：2025 年 7 月 14 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评："反内卷"长期利好商品价格 今年上半年，我国汽车产销量首次双超 1500 万辆，同比均实现两位数增长。得 益于持续整治"内卷式"竞争，车企生产节奏稳定，压库存状况得到改善，产业 活力持续释放。竞争固然是市场经济的常态，但打价格战、搞"内卷式"竞争， 只会助长"劣币驱逐良币"。单纯向下"卷"价格，最终没有赢家。只有依靠技 术创新、产业升级练好"内功"，才能赢得未来。 重点品种：玻璃、钢材、股指 玻璃纯碱：玻璃期货大幅反弹。基本面，夏季检修行情逐步深化，供给收缩，市 场预期好转。上周玻璃小幅库存消化，市场聚焦供给端收缩带来的进一步成效。 数据方面，本周玻璃生产企业库存 5734 万重箱，环比下降 97 万重箱。纯碱期货 大幅反弹。数据层面，本周纯碱生产企业库存 186.4 万吨，环比增加 3.3 万吨。 综合而言，国内，玻璃纯碱都处于库存承压消化的周期，由于生产利润不佳，目 前的去库进程需要时间。不过，随着国内消费需求的提振，继续关注玻璃纯碱自 身的供需消化过程。目前供给调整仍在深化，关注以时间换存量消化的成效。纯 碱而言，总体供给仍有一些变 ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250714："反内卷"情绪推动，硅系价格走势坚挺 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/14 近期趋势 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,650.00 | 1.76% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 8,415.00 | -0.65% | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 元/吨 | 235.00 | 205.00 | | N型多晶硅料 | 元/千克 | 44.50 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 41,330.00 | -0.04% | | 基差 | 元/吨 | 3,170.00 | 15.00 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,650.00 | 1.76% | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,650.00 | 1.76% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,600.00 | 1.78% | | 不通氧553#（昆明） ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 7 月 14 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周五（7 月 11 日）沪指冲高回落，盘中涨幅一度达到 1.3%，收盘涨 0.01%，收报 3510.18 点； 深证成指涨 0.61%，收报 10696.10 点；创业板指涨 0.80%，收报 2207.10 点。沪深两市成交额达到 17121 亿，较 昨日放量 2180 亿。 沪深 300 指数 7 月 11 日强势震荡，收盘 4014.81，环比上涨 4.78。 【焦炭 焦煤】7 月 11 日焦炭加权指数强势依旧，收盘价 1524.1，环比上涨 41.5。 7 月 11 日，焦煤加权指数强势，收盘价 922.8 元，环比上涨 27.7。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：港口焦炭现货市场报价上涨，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1260 元/吨，较上期价格上涨 30 元/吨。 供应，焦化企业生产亏损，部分焦化企业降低开工负荷，近期黑色品种价格均有反弹，部分焦化企业计划对焦炭 提出第一轮提涨。需求，山西粗钢限产，钢材价格反弹 30-70 元/吨，钢厂目前利润尚可，唐山地区钢厂外采维 持。 焦煤： ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range fluctuations, with an overall upward - biased trend in July and August [5][13]. - In the short term, aluminum prices may fluctuate with a slight upward bias, with the upper pressure level around 21,000 yuan [13]. - Considering the current off - season and weak downstream new orders, the spot premium continues to decline, which may put pressure on aluminum prices in the next 1 - 2 weeks. However, due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US trade confrontation, anti - involution, a 45 million - ton supply ceiling, and uncertainties in overseas mine disturbances, the downside space is limited. The range of Shanghai Aluminum 2508 in the next week is expected to be between 20,200 and 20,900 yuan [5][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a large - range fluctuation, expected to be upward - biased in July and August. Although the spot premium decline may pressure aluminum prices in the next 1 - 2 weeks, the downside space is limited due to multiple factors [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: New orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level fluctuating market [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The expected fluctuation range of Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract last week was 20,300 - 20,800 yuan, and short - term trading was recommended [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The expected range of Shanghai Aluminum 2508 this week is 20,200 - 20,900 yuan. Appropriate long positions can be arranged near the lower end of the range [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventory at low prices [9]. 3.3 Overall Viewpoint - **Aluminum Ore Market**: From August, China's bauxite imports from Guinea are expected to decrease. The annual import volume in the second half of the year may decline compared to the first half, with a risk of a supply - demand gap. The price is expected to remain stable in the third quarter and may turn upward in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Alumina Market**: As of July 11, the domestic metallurgical alumina production capacity was about 111.75 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 91.9 million tons and an operating rate of about 82%. There is room for the operating capacity to reach a new high in the third quarter. The 95% percentile cash cost and full cost are in the ranges of [2800, 3000] and [3000, 3200] yuan/ton respectively [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative production from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity was 96% at the end of June, remaining stable month - on - month and 0.32% higher than the same period last year [11]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1350 yuan/ton. Since February 2025, domestic aluminum exports have been growing, and although the growth rate has declined due to tariff disturbances since April, they still show resilience [11]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of the aluminum profile industry remained stable at 49.5%. The operating rate of the aluminum plate and strip industry decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 63.2%, and that of the aluminum foil industry remained stable at 69.6%. The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 61.6%. The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 54.0%, and that of the recycled aluminum industry remained stable at 53.6% [12]. - **Inventory**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 465,000 tons, a decrease of about 2% from the previous two weeks and about 41% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 156,800 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and about 8% from the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased slightly this week [12]. - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 550 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,500 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3300 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Expectation**: Affected by the frequent adjustment of US tariff policies, the commodity market is more volatile. The supply side is stable, the demand side is weak, and the spot basis has widened. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate with a slight upward bias in the short term, with the upper pressure level around 21,000 yuan [13]. 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The price of bauxite from Guinea decreased slightly, while the prices of bauxite from Australia and Indonesia remained stable. The price of alumina increased slightly, and the price of electrolytic aluminum was relatively strong. The price of aluminum alloy and aluminum rods also increased slightly [14]. - The overall supply of domestic alumina is in surplus, but due to uncertainties in the mine end and anti - involution, the downside space is limited, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 2800 - 3300 yuan [14]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum is supported by strong costs and restricted by weak demand. It is expected that the price of ADC12 will maintain a weak and narrow - range fluctuation pattern in July [14]. 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite decreased slightly, the alumina inventory increased slightly, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the aluminum rod inventory increased. The LME aluminum inventory continued to increase [16][17]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Situation - For the whole year of 2025, the domestic aluminum supply - demand is expected to be tighter than in 2024. It may experience seasonal surplus in July and tighten up after August [18]. - The domestic alumina supply is in surplus in 2025, and the year - on - year growth rate of production is expected to be higher than that of demand in the third quarter [20]. - The overall operating rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6%. Different sectors showed different trends, but generally faced downward pressure [25]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still relatively strong, but the strength has weakened compared to June. Aluminum prices may fluctuate at a high level in mid - to late July [30]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1260 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [37][38]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - For the LME aluminum variety, the net long position has continued to rise slightly. Since May, the short position has been reduced, and the long position has increased slightly since early June. The market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [40]. - For the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum variety, the net long position of the main force has continued to increase slightly. The long - position camp has remained stable, and the short - position camp has decreased slightly. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds has decreased slightly, and the net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has remained stable. The market may fluctuate at a high level next week [43].