出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：浪头饮食/ 郝显 2024年，白酒行业进入深度调整！ "行业产销双线下滑、终端动销整体放缓、消费场景萎缩、消费信心不足，诸多产品价格不同程度倒 挂，"茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉2024年中曾对白酒行业发展趋势作出过这样的判断。 在这种背景下，渠道库存问题凸显，头部酒企也频频通过停货稳定价格体系。白酒企业分化进一步加 剧，头部酒企仍能维持稳健增长，中小酒企则开始面对压力。 从上市公司层面来看，2024年酒企收入增速大幅放缓，收入下滑酒企数量从上年的2家增至6家。酒鬼酒 和顺鑫农业已经连续大幅下滑两年。 3家酒企经营活动现金流净额转负 经营活动现金流是衡量上市公司核心盈利能力和财务健康度的关键指标，2024年3家酒企经营活动现金 流净额转负，分别为舍得酒业、酒鬼酒、金种子酒，比上年多了两家。 去年8家公司经营活动现金流净额同比增长，剔除皇台酒业之后，增速最快的是泸州老窖、山西汾酒、 口子窖。此外贵州茅台增长38.85%，也排在前列。 此外，伊力特、洋河股份、顺鑫农业、舍得酒业、金种子酒、酒鬼酒在收入下滑的情况下，存货仍在增 长。 | | | 2024年上市白酒公司存货、现金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment in 2024, characterized by declining production and sales, sluggish terminal movement, shrinking consumption scenarios, and insufficient consumer confidence, leading to price inversions for many products [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The liquor industry is facing significant challenges, with inventory issues becoming prominent and leading major companies to halt shipments to stabilize pricing [1] - The number of liquor companies experiencing revenue declines has increased from 2 in 2023 to 6 in 2024, indicating a growing divide between leading and smaller enterprises [2] Group 2: Revenue Performance - In 2024, 19 listed liquor companies achieved a total revenue of 441.94 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.67% compared to 2023, but with a notable slowdown in revenue growth [2] - The median revenue growth rate for these companies dropped to 3.69% in 2024 from 18.04% in the previous year [2] - The top three companies with the highest revenue growth rates are Jinhuijiu (18.59%), Gujinggongjiu (16.41%), and Guizhou Moutai (15.66%) [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Guizhou Moutai generated revenue of 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 39.4% of the total revenue of listed liquor companies, an increase of nearly 3 percentage points [2] - Yanghe's revenue fell by 12.83% to 28.88 billion yuan, causing it to drop out of the 30 billion yuan club [4] - Jiugui Jiu's revenue declined nearly 50% in 2024 after a 30% drop in 2023, highlighting severe channel issues [4] Group 4: Revenue Rankings - The revenue rankings for 2024 show Guizhou Moutai leading with 174.14 billion yuan, followed by Wuliangye with 89.18 billion yuan, and Shanxi Fenjiu with 36.01 billion yuan [5] - Companies like Jiugui Jiu and Jinzongzi Jiu are experiencing significant revenue declines, with Jiugui Jiu's revenue dropping to 1.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 49.70% [5]

中档产品带动增长，整体表现符合预期 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-05-08 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 46.95 | | 总市值（亿元） | 229 | | 总股本（百万股） | 488 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 488 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 30.73-61.16 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 298.7 | 2025 年 05 月 09 日 —水井坊（600779.SH）公司事件点评报告 2025 年 4 月 29 日，水井坊发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季 报。 投资要点 ▌业绩稳健增长，费用优化明显 市场表现 -40 -20 0 20 40 (%) 水井坊 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《水井坊（600779）：业绩符合 预期，臻酿八号稳增》2025- ...

| 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-05-08 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 46.95 | | 总市值（亿元） | 229 | | 总股本（百万股） | 488 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 488 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 30.73-61.16 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 298.7 | 市场表现 2025 年 05 月 09 日 中档产品带动增长，整体表现符合预期 买入(维持) 事件 -40 -20 0 20 40 (%) 水井坊 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《水井坊（600779）：业绩符合 预期，臻酿八号稳增》2025-01-26 2、《水井坊（600779）：财年开门 红业绩稳健，费投优化力度明显》 2024-11-01 3、《水井坊（600779）：业绩略超 预期，臻酿八号贡献增长》202 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京5月9日电（胡晨曦）A股三大指数5月9日早盘震荡调整，沪指持续低位调整；创业板指则 持续下挫，盘中一度跌超1%。盘面上，银行股逆势走强，建设银行、浦发银行、江苏银行齐创历史新 高；ST板块延续强势，*ST南置、ST瑞和、*ST东易等超20股涨停；电力股再度走高，淮河能源涨停。 下跌方面，半导体芯片股走低，华虹公司跌超10%；机器人概念股调整，东土科技等跌超8%。 至午间收盘时，上证指数报3343.38点，跌幅0.26%，成交额约3044亿元；深证成指报10112.17点，跌幅 0.84%，成交额约4835亿元；创业板指报2009.26点，跌幅0.99%，成交额约2269亿元。 热点板块 盘面上，纺织制造、银行、电力、ST板块、成飞、中船系等板块和概念股涨幅居前；半导体、影视院 线、零售、科创次新股、存储芯片、一体化压铸等板块和概念股跌幅居前。 机构观点 华泰证券：展望2025年二季度，全球AI算力侧投资加码有望驱动光通信板块业绩延续高增长，同时建 议关注景气度扩散方向；电信运营商板块业绩预计保持稳健增长，资本开支进一步向智算倾斜；泛物联 网板块业绩有望延续回暖趋势；ICT设备及ID ...

行业承压背景下，酒企调整频繁、白酒新格局的形成亦按下了"加速键"。 近日，随着山西汾酒财报的发布，白酒行业多年的"高热话题"——"白酒前三甲之争"结果似乎变得明朗。此前"茅五洋"、"茅五泸"的争论似乎有 了不一样的答案。 以2024年财报数据为依据，国内白酒企业呈现出酱、浓、清三大香型代表企业贵州茅台（1708.99亿元）、五粮液（891.75亿元）、山西汾酒 （360.11亿元）盘踞酒业"前三甲"的酒业格局。此外，泸州老窖营收311.96亿元，洋河股份营收为288.76亿元。 值得关注的是，在营收上位列"探花"的山西汾酒，其在2024年的净利（122.42亿元）逊于泸州老窖（134.72亿元），不过其净利增速实现双位数 增长，表现优于泸州老窖。 目前来看，由于不同酒企间营收数据有着较大差距、以及行业进入调整期业绩数据增速放缓等原因，酒业在经历"三甲之争"多年后，头部酒企格 局或在当下已被重塑。不过，"茅五汾"新格局稳定性如何呢？ 01 2025Q1： 不过，洋河股份业绩依然备受考验。其在2025年Q1营收为110.66亿元，同比下滑31.92%；净利为36.37亿元，同比下滑39.93%。 整个行业来看，2 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The overall revenue of the liquor industry experienced slight growth during the Spring Festival season, but the growth rate has declined compared to 2024, indicating that the industry is still in an adjustment period [1] - High-end liquor showed stable growth, while the revenue growth of mid-range liquor approached zero, leading to increased differentiation among real estate liquor and other types [1] - As of May, the liquor industry is transitioning from a traditional off-season to a small peak season during the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival, with expectations for mainstream product prices to stabilize due to recovering demand [1] Group 2: Market Insights - Dongwu Securities maintains a positive mid-term outlook for the liquor sector, emphasizing the importance of positioning over timing, and suggests monitoring indicators such as the stability of Moutai's prices and changes in channel inventory [1] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that the liquor sector is facing a demand gap, but the risk of further decline is limited as the demand is at a historical low [2] - CICC expects that the liquor demand will gradually recover, supported by a relatively loose policy environment and low base effects from the previous year [2] Group 3: Company Specifics - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has been developed into a leading private liquor enterprise in China, with its main brands contributing 65.2%, 15.8%, and 17.4% to the revenue in 2023, respectively [3]

5月9日，中金公司（601995）研报表示，当前白酒板块面临一定的需求缺口，未来白酒行业走出周期底 部离不开需求支撑。中金公司研报认为，当前白酒需求景气度已处历史底部(过去五年景气度分位数为 28%)，向下风险或有限。政策较宽松为消费回暖提供基础，1—3月份经济数据已有表现，预计更多托 底政策出台将助力白酒需求稳步筑底回升。未来，白酒需求或以较慢斜率小幅回升，从消费场景看，短 期大众需求偏刚性，且同期低基数下，宴席需求或有所表现；中期维度下，政策有望刺激高端白酒需求 企稳。全年白酒板块业绩在去年三四季度低基数支撑下或呈先抑后扬走势。 ...

Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 36.011 billion and 12.243 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 12.79% and 17.29% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 16.523 billion and 6.648 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 7.72% and 6.15% [2] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's liquor revenue reached 35.875 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 0.93 percentage points to 76.30% [1] - The proportion of mid-to-high-end liquor revenue increased by 0.86 percentage points to 73.96%, with revenues of 26.532 billion and 9.342 billion yuan for mid-to-high-end and other liquors, respectively [1] - In Q1 2025, liquor revenue was 16.480 billion yuan, with revenue from Fenjiu and other liquors at 16.212 billion and 0.268 billion yuan, respectively [2] Market Dynamics - In 2024, revenue from provincial and out-of-province markets was 13.500 billion and 22.374 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 11.72% and 13.81% [1] - The number of distributors increased by 613 to 4,553, while the average scale per distributor decreased by 2.88% to 7.3657 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, provincial and out-of-province revenues were 6.083 billion and 10.396 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 8.7% and 7.18% [2] Profitability Analysis - In 2024, the gross margin and net profit margin were 76.20% and 34.00%, respectively, with increases of 0.9 and 1.3 percentage points [1] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin and net profit margin were 78.80% and 40.23%, with changes of +1.34 and -0.60 percentage points [2] - Operating cash flow increased by 68.47% year-on-year to 12.172 billion yuan in 2024, while in Q1 2025, it decreased by 0.21% to 7.027 billion yuan [1][2] Earnings Forecast - The company expects revenue growth of 8%, 9%, and 9% for 2025-2027, reaching 39 billion, 42.5 billion, and 46.3 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 6%, 9%, and 10% for the same period, reaching 13 billion, 14.1 billion, and 15.5 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The revised earnings forecast reflects a weaker consumption environment for liquor [3]

中金研究 当前白酒板块面临一定的需求缺口，我们认为未来白酒行业走出周期底部离不开需求的支撑，我们对长期白酒需求量价变化进行深度探讨、通过对需 求周期复盘总结需求回升期的特征，并分析当下白酒的需求情况。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 长期需求如何展望？ 1）量： 我国白酒饮用主力（20-60岁男性）人口数在2020年达最高值4.3亿后下降，中国人口研究与发展中心预测25-30年饮酒主力人 口数或将小幅下降；在"喝的少，喝的好"消费趋势及中小产能出清影响下，人均销量16-24年CAGR-9.2%，参考发达国家经验，我们预计未来人均饮用量 以每年低单位数速度收缩。 2）价： 居民收入增长支撑，加之供给集中度持续提升，1999-24年白酒单价CAGR10%，我们预计未来五年白酒价格或仍将延 续中-高个位数复合增速。同时我们发现2013年以来居民财富效应与白酒价格相关性提升，而白酒在社交场景的刚需消费属性能够对冲财富效应带来的周 期波动性，使白酒价格能持续平稳上升。 复盘白酒需求周期有何特征？ 1） 2013年以来白酒消费需求从政商务引领为主逐步转向多元需求共同驱动是其核心特征之一，居民财富效应对白酒消费影 ...