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构建有韧性的科研体系
Ke Ji Ri Bao· 2025-04-28 01:19
Core Viewpoint - The construction of a resilient scientific research system is essential for ensuring national technological security and achieving self-reliance in science and technology, especially in the context of increasing global technological competition and geopolitical tensions [3][8]. Group 1: Challenges to the Research System - The scientific research system faces multiple challenges, including accelerated technological iteration, interdisciplinary collaboration risks, sudden public events, and uneven resource distribution [2][4]. - The rapid development of technology brings ethical and regulatory issues, as well as disruptive changes in research paradigms, posing adaptability challenges to traditional research organizational models [2][3]. Group 2: Necessity for a Resilient Research System - A resilient research system is particularly necessary for China due to increasing international competition and sanctions from developed countries, which hinder international research cooperation and access to research facilities [3][4]. - The lack of an independent and self-sufficient research ecosystem in China, along with limited international academic discourse power and weak foundational research, necessitates the establishment of a resilient research system [3][4]. Group 3: Strategies to Enhance Resilience - Enhancing the resilience of the research system should focus on four aspects: technological resilience, institutional resilience, organizational resilience, and social resilience [4][5]. - Strengthening technological resilience involves improving independent innovation capabilities and developing backup plans for critical technologies to mitigate risks from potential technological blockades [4][5]. - Institutional resilience requires continuous evolution and improvement of existing systems to enhance risk resistance, including the establishment of flexible legal frameworks and risk assessment mechanisms [5][6]. - Organizational resilience can be improved by increasing flexibility in resource allocation and fostering collaboration among various research entities to optimize strategies and share resources [6][7]. - Social resilience emphasizes the importance of public engagement and support for scientific research, enhancing scientific literacy, and fostering a stable social environment for technological development [7][8].
当代国人的心理图谱:一场集体心灵觉醒的阵痛与突围 —— 基于数据与热搜现象的心理学观察
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-04-27 16:08
Core Insights - The article discusses the psychological challenges faced by contemporary Chinese society, highlighting a collective awakening and the associated pains and breakthroughs [2][3][12] Group 1: Psychological Challenges - Anxiety has become a prevalent emotion among contemporary Chinese individuals, with work pressure, parenting anxiety, and health crises identified as the three core sources of anxiety [3] - The depression risk detection rate is reported at 10.6%, while the anxiety risk detection rate stands at 15.8% [3] - High usage of short videos correlates with increased risks of depression and anxiety, with youth averaging over 90 minutes daily [3] Group 2: Cultural Awakening and Identity - The rise of "Guochao" (national trend) reflects a cultural revival, with the Hanfu market exceeding 100 billion and non-heritage cultural products growing at 28% annually [4] - There is a growing generational gap in values, with Gen Z adopting unique online cultures that clash with the traditional narratives held by older generations [4] Group 3: Physical Manifestations of Psychological Issues - Approximately 65.91% of respondents in a sleep study reported sleep disturbances, with an estimated 500 million people in China affected by sleep issues [5] - Bodily symptoms often reflect underlying psychological problems, leading to a cycle of temporary satisfaction through consumption behaviors like live-stream tipping and blind box purchases [5] Group 4: Traditional vs. Modern Tensions - The "lying flat" philosophy represents a complex response to societal pressures, revealing a desire to escape competition while grappling with unfulfilled aspirations [6] - The depression risk for unemployed individuals is notably high at 31.0%, indicating a disconnect between educational achievements and job market demands [6] Group 5: Information Overload - Digital natives encounter an overwhelming amount of information daily, equivalent to what a 15th-century person would experience in 30 years, yet this does not enhance understanding [7] - Social media pressures contribute to anxiety, as individuals curate their online personas to gain validation, often at the expense of genuine emotional expression [7] Group 6: Intergenerational Trauma in Families - High expectations in parenting lead to significant mental health risks among youth, with a 24.6% depression detection rate among adolescents [8] - Urbanization exacerbates emotional crises, with 280 million migrant workers facing loneliness and lack of emotional support [8] Group 7: Solutions for Psychological Resilience - Individuals are encouraged to implement a "mindful decluttering" approach, such as the "three-minute rule" to pause before making decisions [9] - Creating a "micro-action checklist" to document small positive experiences can help rebuild a sense of control and meaning in life [9] Group 8: Community Support Systems - Companies are urged to adopt "mental health days" and informal communication channels to help employees manage stress [10] - Community initiatives like "commuting psychological counseling booths" can provide accessible mental health support [10] Group 9: Cultural Reinvigoration - Integrating Daoist philosophy with existential therapy through digital meditation apps can help individuals find inner peace amidst modern chaos [11] - Reviving rituals and slow practices can strengthen emotional connections and enhance appreciation for life [11] Group 10: Future Perspectives - The focus is shifting from "psychological poverty alleviation" to "spiritual abundance," emphasizing the need for psychological resilience education in schools [12] - Innovative policies, such as incorporating a "psychological GDP" index, could enhance societal focus on mental health [12]
有色及贵金属周报合集-20250427
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-27 10:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Gold and Silver**: Gold prices oscillated downward with a retracement of bullish sentiment, while silver saw a rise in risk appetite. The gold-silver ratio dropped from 103 to 99.5. Gold entered an overbought zone, and the reversal of Trump's stance on tariffs contributed to the price decline. The report suggested using options for trading when gold trading becomes difficult due to high volatility [7]. - **Copper**: The driving logic of copper is anchored in two aspects: strong fundamentals with a definite decline in supply and the uncertainty brought by Trump's tariff policy. If the tariff policy eases, it will resonate with the fundamental logic and support prices. The report recommended that industrial players focus on unilateral buying at low prices, test calendar spreads, and wait for cross - market arbitrage opportunities [85][86]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver 3.1.1 Market Performance - Gold prices declined, with London gold falling by -0.86%, while silver prices rose, with London silver increasing by 3.17%. The gold-silver ratio decreased from 103 to 99.5. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 2.02%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.29%, and the dollar index reached 99.58 [7]. 3.1.2 Price Drivers - The reversal of Trump's stance on tariffs, including positive statements on trade prospects and the indication of potential tariff reduction, alleviated market concerns and contributed to the decline in gold prices [7]. 3.1.3 Trading and Investment - Given the high volatility in gold trading, the report recommended using options for trading configuration [7]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Market Performance - Copper prices were affected by Trump's tariff policy and fundamental factors. The import loss of copper concentrates widened to about 3,400 yuan/ton, and the price spread between COMEX and LME copper rose above $1,400 [83][84]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrates was expected to be more tense, with the spot TC dropping to -$42.52/ton and smelters' losses exceeding 3,400 yuan/ton. The import volume of recycled copper was likely to decline, increasing the probability of smelter shutdowns or production cuts in the second half of the year [85]. - **Demand**: Domestic copper inventories were being depleted at a faster pace, and spot premiums were strengthening, indicating strong buying power from downstream and end - user enterprises. Grid orders increased significantly, and new energy power generation and communication orders improved marginally, driving copper consumption [85]. 3.2.3 Uncertainty from Tariff Policy - Trump's tariff policy was unpredictable, increasing market volatility. Although there were signs of potential policy adjustment, the overall increase in US import tariffs could still affect global copper consumption growth in the long run [85]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Based on the fundamental logic, investors were advised to look for phased trading opportunities. Physical enterprises could consider buying at low prices when the tariff policy eases [85].
国泰君安期货金银周报-20250427
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-27 09:43
金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020476 日期:2025年04月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金:震荡回落,多头情绪回吐;白银:风险偏好回升 强弱分析:黄金中性、白银中性 价格区间:760-800元/克、7900-8300元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆ 本周贵金属继续回升,伦敦金%,伦敦回落-0.86%,伦敦银上行3.17%。金银比从前周的103回落至99.5,10年期TIPS回落至2.02%,10年期 名义利率回升至4.29%(2年期3.74%),美元指数录得99.58。 ◆ 4月23日黄金价格骤然反转,外盘黄金回落至3330美元/盎司附近,而内盘则下跌更为剧烈,最低回落至785元/克,内外价差重新收敛,体现 国内投资热情的冷却。尽管黄金长期叙事未变,但从技术指标来看黄金的确已经进入超买区间,特朗普口风反转是逆转趋势 ...
全面推进韧性城市建设
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-04-27 00:14
Core Viewpoint - The construction of resilient cities in China is a significant focus for modern urban management, aiming to enhance urban resilience and risk management capabilities by 2030, as emphasized by national policies and leadership [1][4]. Group 1: Definition and Development of Resilient Cities - Resilient cities are defined as urban areas that can quickly recover from disasters without suffering catastrophic failures, emphasizing comprehensive response capabilities [2]. - The development of resilient cities in China has gone through three stages: introduction of the concept before 2015, practical exploration from 2015 to 2020, and comprehensive development post-2020 [3][4]. Group 2: Policy and Implementation - National policies have been established to guide the construction of resilient cities, including the 2024 guidelines from the Ministry of Natural Resources and the 2022 action plan from the State Council [4][5]. - Local governments, such as Beijing and Shanghai, have developed specific policies and plans to promote resilient city construction, creating a governance framework that includes various resilience aspects [5][6]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - The integration of new urban infrastructure and advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence and digital twin technology, is transforming urban disaster prevention systems, enhancing data collection and predictive capabilities [7][8]. - Zhejiang Province has developed a comprehensive disaster prevention model that utilizes AI to forecast risks and support decision-making across various administrative levels [9]. Group 4: International Collaboration and Learning - China's resilient city planning model is gaining international recognition, with collaborative projects aimed at addressing climate change and promoting sustainable urban development in partnership with countries like Germany and organizations like the World Bank [6]. - Lessons from developed countries highlight the importance of institutional support, legal frameworks, and digital risk monitoring systems in building resilient cities [12][13][14].
新城建让城市更有韧性
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-04-26 21:52
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of urban resilience as a fundamental indicator of urban development effectiveness, highlighting the shift from large-scale construction to quality improvement and structural adjustment in urbanization [1][2]. Group 1: Urban Development and Resilience - By the end of 2024, China's urban resident population is projected to reach 943.5 million, with an urbanization rate of 67.00%, expected to approach 70% in the next five years [1]. - The transition to a new urbanization strategy focuses on enhancing urban safety resilience, addressing the complex risks posed by climate change, technological revolutions, and changes in population and industry [1][2]. - Urban safety is closely linked to the well-being of residents, with increasing societal expectations for healthier, safer, and more livable cities as urbanization shifts from high-speed to high-quality development [1]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Technological Integration - Infrastructure is described as the "bones" of a city and a critical factor in enhancing urban resilience, with new policies aimed at advancing urban infrastructure construction to support resilience [3]. - The integration of new technologies such as big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence is essential for building resilient cities, enabling better risk monitoring and management [2][3]. - The new urban infrastructure is characterized by technology support, data-driven approaches, and intelligent efficiency, which collectively enhance urban resilience [3][4]. Group 3: Systematic Planning and Safety - A systematic approach is necessary for urban resilience, which comprises infrastructure resilience, social resilience, management resilience, and technological resilience [4]. - Safety is a fundamental attribute of new urban infrastructure, necessitating a comprehensive risk management strategy throughout the planning, construction, and management processes [5]. - The article advocates for a holistic design in building resilient cities, ensuring that all aspects of urban development are considered in conjunction with infrastructure and governance [4][5].
中金研究 | 本周精选:宏观、策略
中金点睛· 2025-04-25 23:38
中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 宏观 Macroeconomy 特朗普的两个目标均难实现 >>点击图片查看全文<< 特朗普政府试图通过加征关税促使美国贸易逆差收窄,制造业回流,我们认为这两个目标难以通过关税实现。首先,关税难以使得美国贸易逆差收 窄。从理论来看,提升关税并不一定能够缩减逆差(扩大顺差)。根据勒纳对称定理,对进口征税等同于对本国的出口征税。关税难以促使制造业回 流美国。全球供应链对中国的依赖度比较高,而且无论是从劳动者数量、质量,还是就业意愿来看,美国制造业回流都将面临着劳动力短缺的问题。 美国制造业成本高,也是其制造业回流的挑战。特朗普关税或对美国产生滞胀式影响,美国衰退风险加大。除了"滞胀"风险,特朗普的减税、削减支 出和关税组合或将损害美国大多数家庭,对低收入人群损害更大,加剧美国内部不平衡。实际上,从经济视角来看,美国没有非常突出的外部失衡问 题,但内部分配问题很严重。 资料来源:US Census Bureau,中金公司研究部 >>点击图片跳转报告原文<< 2025.04.23 | 张文朗 黄亚东等 02 宏观 Macroeconomy 从汇率、利 ...
TriNet(TNET) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-04-25 18:36
TriNet Group (TNET) Q1 2025 Earnings Call April 25, 2025 02:36 PM ET Company Participants Alex Bauer - VP - IRMike Simonds - President & CEOKelly Tuminelli - Executive VP & CFOAndrew Polkowitz - Vice PresidentDavid Grossman - Managing Director Conference Call Participants Jared Levine - AnalystKyle Peterson - Senior AnalystAndrew Nicholas - Equity Research Analyst Operator Good day, and welcome to the TriNet Group Inc. First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in li ...
解锁中工国际业绩增长密码:2024年经营“稳中求进” “一体两翼”格局初显
Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of over 12.2 billion yuan and a net profit of 362 million yuan for 2024, indicating progress in achieving its "14th Five-Year" strategic goals and demonstrating resilience in a challenging external environment [1] - The company's performance is attributed to its ability to adapt and innovate through a "three new" strategy focusing on new market layouts, new segments, and new resource configurations [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company signed new contracts worth a total of 856 million USD, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.86% [1] - For 2024, the total new contract value reached 3.39 billion USD, a 7.4% increase, with international engineering business being a significant contributor [2] Overseas Business Expansion - The overseas engineering business has shown counter-cyclical growth, becoming the largest profit contributor for the company [2] - The company has successfully entered the oil and gas engineering sector in Iraq, achieving significant milestones ahead of schedule [4] - The expansion into overseas markets is seen as a crucial path for the company to navigate economic cycles and seek incremental growth [5] Project Highlights - Key projects include the Nicaragua Punta Huete International Airport expansion and various projects in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, showcasing the company's diverse international portfolio [4][5] - The company has established a strong presence in the oil and gas sector, which is characterized by high specialization and large project sizes [4] Technological and Strategic Development - The company emphasizes technological advancement as a key driver for high-quality development, with significant achievements in engineering and technology certifications [8] - The strategic layout of "one body and two wings" aims to enhance international operations and project management capabilities [7] Future Outlook - The year 2025 is defined as a "resilient development" year, with a focus on steady progress and deepening the "one body and two wings" strategy [11] - The company has reported a revenue of 2.183 billion yuan and a net profit of 131 million yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a 12.17% increase year-on-year [11] Leadership Vision - The chairman emphasized the importance of focusing on core responsibilities and enhancing overseas market development capabilities, aiming to create economic and social value [14]
关税观察: 外贸大省招几何?(民生宏观陶川团队)
川阅全球宏观· 2025-04-24 06:21
作者:钟渝梅 陶川 关税风险下,主要外贸大省都在积极应对、 " 闯关突围 " 。 在全国出口额几乎被广东、江苏、浙江、山东、上海 " 包揽 " 的情况下,观 测五大外贸省的出口形势也成为 " 贸易冲突 2.0" 的一大风向标。 讨论关税的影响几何,重要的是观察外贸大省们如何应对。 从出口产品 多元化和对美出口依赖度的角度来看, 山东的 " 抗风险 " 能力更强,而广东、上海、江苏就稍弱些; 从内需对冲外需下行压力的角度来 看, 山东、江苏的空间更大,而广东、上海需要更多的政策予以支持。 往前看,五个外贸省中,谁能更好地抵御接下来的外贸冲击? 我们尝试从 出口产品多元化程度、对美出口依赖度、内需韧性 这三个角度 出发,给予这个问题更好的回答: 视角一:出口产品的多元化程度。 鉴于美国将关税暂缓 90 天为国内出口的 " 退中求进 " 提供了缓冲,我们认为 在这 90 天时间内,将更 有利于 出口产品多元化程度较高的省份 去 " 抢转口 " 。通过估算(图 5 ), 五大外贸省份的出口产品多元化程度排名为:山东 ≈ 浙江> 广东>上海>江苏。 这也意味着至少二季度山东、浙江这两大外贸省份面临的出口下行压力相对偏小 ...