策 略 研 究 华福证券 沪指站上 3500 点 投资要点： 本周（7/7-7/11）沪指向上突破 3500 点，全 A 收涨 1.71%。从指数情 况看，微盘股、中证 1000、创业板指领涨，沪深 300、中证红利、上证 50 涨幅靠后。从风格情况看，科技、医药医疗领涨，周期、消费涨幅靠后。 本周 31 个申万行业涨多跌少，房地产、钢铁、非银金融领涨，汽车、银行、 煤炭领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差下降，行业轮动强度上升。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差下降至 1.2%，小于+1 标准差。估值分化系数有所上升。（2）市 场情绪：市场情绪回升，行业轮动强度上升。市场小盘风格占优，微盘股 指数跑赢市场，主题热度主要聚集在稀土、炒股软件、稀土永磁。（3）市 场结构：市场量能环比上升，房地产、建筑材料、非银金融多头个股占比 居前，有色金属、公用事业、煤炭内部或存在α机会。（4）市场资金：本 周陆股通周内日平均成交金额较上周上升 411 亿元，本周陆股通周内日平 均成交笔数较上周上升 144 万笔。本周陆股通成交额排名前三的标的为贵 州茅台、工商银行、宁德时代，近 5 日涨幅分别为 0.3%、3.4 ...

高层政策点燃了市场对本轮"反内卷"的关注，在钢铁行业弱需求与强成本对企业盈利形成压制的背景 下，市场盼政策加速推动行业产能结构优化。 A股中报预告披露临近尾声，截至7月14日收盘，8家钢铁企业发布了上半年业绩预告，其中，首钢股份 （000959.SZ）、友发集团（601686.SH）、银龙股份（603969.SH）、广大特材（688186.SH）4家业绩 预增，山东钢铁（600022.SH）、三钢闽光（002110.SZ）实现扭亏，杭钢股份（600126.SH）业绩续 亏，抚顺特钢（600399.SH）录得首亏。 2025年上半年，钢铁下游行业需求偏弱，供给保持相对高位，主要原燃料价格显著回落，钢材价格总体 震荡下行。第一财经记者梳理发现，已发布中报预告的A股上市钢企，上半年的经营重点均聚焦于降低 成本，而产品价格也是决定企业业绩增长或下滑的关键因素。 山东钢铁预计上半年实现归母净利润1271万元，同比增利9.81亿元；三钢闽光预计上半年的归母净利润 盈利约1.31亿元。山东钢铁表示，上半年公司强化算账经营，优化调整高炉中修时间，实现降本扭亏。 三钢闽光表示通过优化产品结构，深化全流程降成本，实现半年度业绩扭 ...

【导读】煤炭板块率先掀"反内卷"行情，中国稀土上半年扭亏为盈 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 7月14日，香港三大股指全线上涨。恒生指数收盘涨0.26%，报24203.32点；恒生科技指数涨0.67%，报5283.50点；恒生中国企业指数 涨0.52%，报8732.74点。全日市场成交额 为 2104亿港元，较上一交易日明显回落；南向资金净买入额 为 82.43亿港元。 | 恒生指数 | 恒生国企 | 恒生科技 | | --- | --- | --- | | 24203.32 8732.74 | | 5283.50 | | +63.75 +0.26% +45.18 +0.52% +35.02 +0.67% | | | 恒生指数 成 份 股 中53只上涨，27只下跌。 涨幅方面， 中国神华上涨5.16%，翰森制药上涨3.49%，快手上涨3.33%；跌幅方面，海底 捞下跌3.68%，百度集团下跌2.72%。 | 序号 | 名称 | 代码 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 成交额 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 中国神华 ...

上述专家认为，扩内需、治内卷有望畅通经济循环，促进物价合理回升。 当前，我国物价总体保持低位运行，权威专家表示，国内实体经济供需矛盾是主要原因，"通货膨胀是 货币现象"的观点有其诞生的时代背景和前提条件，经济供求因素才是引起物价变动的第一阶原因。 据上述专家解释，物价从根本上是实体经济供需双方相互作用的结果，对于货币主义"通货膨胀是货币 现象"的观点在讨论物价时常有人提到，但这一论断是有前提假设的，其完整表述是"在货币数量增速持 续超过产出增速的条件下，通货膨胀无论何时何地都是一种货币现象"，即只有当货币增速超过产出增 速时，多增发货币才可能引发物价上涨。而且这一表述当时流行，也有上世纪60—70年代发达经济体劳 动力和能源紧张、供给不足的时代背景，货币供给增多带来需求扩张，最终都表现为供大于求物价上 升。 "这与我国当前的经济供求形势不同，过去很长一段时间我国宏观政策思路都是促投资、保供给，供给 短缺的局面已经发生根本转变，出现了供过于求的现象，当前制约物价的主要是需求不足。"上述专家 称。 从扩内需的角度看，货币政策支持力度持续较大。5月中国人民银行推出一揽子增量金融政策，为了支 持服务消费，还专门创设了 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a strong breakout in A-shares, with major indices rising, particularly the ChiNext Index which increased by 2.36%, and the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3500 points, driven by policy support and improved manufacturing expectations [4][10] - The report notes a technical adjustment in the bond market, with 30-year and 10-year government bonds declining by 0.49% and 0.26% respectively, attributed to the risk appetite shift towards equities and tightening liquidity post-quarter-end [4][10] - The report indicates that the U.S. stock market is experiencing a high-level correction, with major indices declining under the pressure of the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" interest rate expectations, while the dollar rebounded by 0.93% this week [4][10] Group 2 - The report suggests a diversified asset allocation strategy, recommending a focus on the bond market due to supportive liquidity and optimistic sentiment, while also monitoring the scale of MLF renewals and fiscal-monetary policy coordination [5] - For overseas equities, the report advises overweighting non-U.S. markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, to capitalize on structural opportunities amid a weakening dollar and resilient fundamentals [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring commodity prices, which are rebounding due to policy stimulus and cost support, while also noting that the effectiveness of future measures needs to be tracked [4][5] Group 3 - The report identifies that the A-share market is currently in a small-cap, high-growth style cycle, with liquidity supporting a continued influx of funds into smaller stocks, despite a negative return of -8.54% for the market capitalization factor year-to-date [34] - The report highlights that the current valuation levels of A-shares are approaching historical averages, with the price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 800 at the 50th percentile of the rolling three-year range, reflecting a cautiously optimistic market sentiment [67] - The report notes that while earnings expectations have slightly improved, they remain below historical averages, indicating ongoing concerns about the profitability of A-share listed companies, with a projected rolling one-year earnings growth rate of 10.4% [67]

今日，A股市场震荡分化，三大指数涨跌不一。值得注意的是，上周刚刚放量至1.7万亿的成交额再度大幅萎缩，今日全天成交不足1.5 万亿，资金入市力度仍有较大提升空间。 盘面上，机器人概念股集体大涨，中大力德涨停。电力、电网股再度走强，京运通等涨停。贵金属概念股表现活跃，湖南白银涨停。下 跌方面，大金融股集体调整，南华期货跌停。 01央行重磅发声 中国人民银行7月14日发布2025年上半年金融数据。 中国人民银行副行长邹澜在当日举行的国新办新闻发布会上表示，下阶段，人民银行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，密切关注评估 前期已实施政策的传导情况和实际效果，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况， 把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，更好地推动 扩大国内需求、稳定社会预期、激发市场活力，支持实现全年经济社会发展目标和任务。 结构方面，突出金融服务实体经济的重点方向，聚焦科技创新、扩大消费、民营小微等方面，强化政策协同联动，用好用足各项结构性 货币政策工具，加力支持重点领域和薄弱环节。 传导方面，强化利率政策执行和监督，更好发挥行业自律作用，维护银行业市场竞争秩序，提高资金使用效率，防范资金空转，把握好 金融支持实体经济和保持 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Xingyuan Material Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Xingyuan Material") has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, facing challenges of declining profit margins and net profits despite revenue growth due to intensified industry competition and price wars [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Xingyuan Material's revenue has shown growth over the past three years, with figures of 2.867 billion, 2.982 billion, and 3.506 billion from 2022 to 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.59% [2]. - However, the company's gross margin has decreased significantly, from 44.82% in 2022 to 28.07% in 2024, a decline of 15.21 percentage points [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 0.881 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.79%, but the gross margin fell from 36.1% to 23.6%, a decrease of 12.5 percentage points, and net profit dropped by 52% [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The lithium-ion battery separator industry is experiencing severe price competition, with average selling prices for dry, wet, and coated separators declining by 38.6%, 23.6%, and 39.2% respectively in 2024 [4]. - The industry is characterized by a "prisoner's dilemma" where companies engage in bottom-tier competition, sacrificing profits to maintain market share, exacerbated by subsidies and low financing conditions [4]. - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee has called for the regulation of low-price disorderly competition, particularly in emerging industries like photovoltaics and lithium batteries, which may help stabilize pricing signals [5]. Group 3: Future Plans - Xingyuan Material plans to raise 6.3 billion HKD through its IPO, with investments allocated for overseas expansion, including approximately 5.462 billion HKD for a production base in Malaysia and 0.632 billion HKD for a base in the United States [3]. - The Singapore operations and R&D center is set to receive an investment of about 0.21 billion HKD, expected to commence in early 2026 and complete by mid-2028 [3].

摘要 行业步入去产能与需求放缓的"压力测试" 随着政策引导的 " 反内卷 " 在中国锂电行业落地，碳酸锂价格应声上涨。这既是告别非理性价格 战的预期结果，也揭开了一场围绕新定价体系的复杂博弈序幕，其过程充满了动荡与不确定性。 7 月 14 日，碳酸锂期货主力合约盘中大幅拉升，涨幅一度超过 6% ，突破 68,000 元 / 吨。这 一价格与六月下旬曾一度低于 59,000 元 / 吨的低点形成鲜明对比。 现货市场同样躁动。根据数据，上周（ 7 月 7 日至 11 日），电池级碳酸锂价格已在 6.3 至 6.4 万元 / 吨区间企稳，并录得 2.3% 的周环比上涨。 市场的直接触发点来自一则传闻。消息称宜春市自然资源局要求部分矿山企业提供储量核实报告的 补充材料。尽管文件并未提及停产整顿，但在供给敏感的当下，任何风吹草动都足以引发市场剧烈 波动。 然而，将此次价格反弹完全归因于短期消息是危险的。更深层次的动因，指向了 国内 新能源产业 链正在经历的一场深刻变革 ——" 反内卷 " 。这场旨在中止无序低价竞争 、 淘汰落后产能 的行 动，正从终端的汽车行业向上游传导。 一个直接的矛盾已经出现。价格上涨正在刺激供应 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cement industry [6][27]. Core Insights - The cement industry is expected to see significant improvement in performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, driven by anti-involution measures and a focus on high-quality development [1][4]. - The historical success of supply-side reforms has led to a reduction in new cement production lines, alleviating supply-demand imbalances, but recent market demand declines have intensified competition [2][3]. - The regulatory framework for anti-involution policies is being strengthened, with measures to address overproduction expected to be a key focus in the second half of 2025 [3][4]. - Companies with integrated operations and global expansion strategies are positioned for long-term growth, with specific recommendations for Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material [1][4][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The cement industry has experienced a significant drop in average prices, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% as of July 11, 2025, leading to a renewed call for anti-involution measures [2][3]. Performance Forecasts - Five cement companies have reported impressive performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with some expecting net profit increases of over 100% year-on-year [4][8]. Policy Developments - Recent policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the inclusion of the cement industry in carbon emissions trading are expected to enhance the regulatory framework for managing overproduction [3][4]. Company Recommendations - The report highlights Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material as key investment opportunities due to their competitive advantages in scale, cost, and energy efficiency [1][4][8].

Core Viewpoint - The intense competition among major internet companies like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com in the instant retail sector is leading to unsustainable subsidy wars, which may result in resource wastage and long-term negative impacts on the industry [1][2][4] Group 1: Impact on Consumers - Consumers are experiencing a surge of attractive offers such as "0 yuan milk tea," but this has led to instances of wasted resources, with many orders going unclaimed [1] - The phenomenon of "fake demand" is emerging, where consumer impulsiveness driven by subsidies does not translate into actual consumption [1] Group 2: Impact on Delivery Workers - Delivery workers are facing increased workloads due to the surge in orders, with some reporting delivery counts as high as 80 to 100 orders in a single day, leading to potential health risks [1][2] Group 3: Impact on Small Businesses - Small businesses may benefit from increased traffic due to platform subsidies, but they also bear part of the subsidy costs, leading to situations where order volume increases without corresponding revenue growth [2] - The influx of orders can degrade service quality, negatively affecting consumer perception and long-term brand viability for small businesses [2] Group 4: Impact on Platforms - Platforms are under significant financial pressure due to high subsidy costs, which could lead to short-term profit declines and potential stock price impacts [2] - For instance, Morgan Stanley estimates that Alibaba's investment in related businesses has reached approximately 10 billion yuan, with further increases expected, raising questions about the sustainability of this subsidy model [2] Group 5: Broader Industry Implications - The ongoing subsidy wars are affecting the entire retail ecosystem, with competitors like Pinduoduo and Kuaishou potentially feeling the pressure to join the fray, which could lead to further industry "involution" [3] - The focus on order volume growth over value creation could undermine the long-term benefits for consumers, delivery workers, businesses, and platforms alike [3][4] Group 6: Recommendations for Sustainable Growth - To avoid a detrimental cycle of competition, platforms should prioritize technological innovation and service quality rather than relying solely on price-based strategies [3][4] - Regulatory bodies and industry associations should implement reasonable policies to mitigate the negative effects of excessive competition, ensuring consumer rights and protecting the interests of small businesses and delivery workers [3][4]