Group 1 - Mazagon Dock Limited (MDL) has announced the acquisition of at least 51% stake in Colombo Dockyard PLC (CDPLC) for approximately $53 million, becoming the largest shareholder [1][2] - The acquisition is seen as strategically significant, allowing MDL to establish a foothold in the Indian Ocean and counter China's growing influence in Sri Lanka [1][2] - The transaction is expected to be completed within four to six months and will involve purchasing shares from CDPLC's major shareholder, Japan's Onomichi Dockyard, and subscribing to new shares [2] Group 2 - MDL is a major manufacturer of submarines and warships for the Indian Navy and views this acquisition as a key step in its internationalization strategy [2] - The strategic location of CDPLC in Colombo Port and its established capabilities are expected to enhance MDL's position as a significant player in South Asia and lay the foundation for becoming a global shipbuilder [2] - Indian media has characterized this acquisition as a proactive measure in the geopolitical competition in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in response to China's expanding presence in the Indian Ocean [2]

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of gold prices dropping to 600 CNY per gram is low, requiring a multi-faceted analysis of various influencing factors [1][3]. Short-term Possibility Analysis (Within 1 Year) - Strong support levels currently restrict price declines, with historical lows indicating a minimum of 620 CNY per gram in early 2025, while current international gold prices suggest a domestic base price of approximately 768 CNY per gram [1]. - If international gold prices fall below 3200 USD per ounce (approximately 760 CNY per gram), a potential drop to 3000 USD (around 700 CNY) could occur, but reaching 600 CNY would necessitate prices falling below 2400 USD, which exceeds current institutional forecasts [1]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks are projected to purchase over 1,141 tons of gold in 2024, with the Chinese central bank increasing its holdings for 18 consecutive months, providing long-term price support [2]. Necessary Conditions for Price Drop - A combination of multiple adverse conditions would need to occur for prices to approach 600 CNY, with the probability assessed to be below 10% according to mainstream institutional views [3]. Mid-term Pressure Range - The realistic price range is expected to be between 700-750 CNY, influenced by consumer psychology, with many consumers viewing 600-700 CNY as a psychological buying point [4]. - Increased customer traffic at gold shops in Hangzhou at the 772 CNY level indicates an upward shift in actual support levels [4]. Cost Constraints - The mining cost of gold is estimated to be around 1200-1400 USD per ounce (approximately 500-550 CNY per gram), and sustained prices below this level could lead to production cuts by mining companies, thereby correcting supply and demand [5]. Factors Influencing the 600 CNY Target - The soaring US dollar index (over 120) is suppressing gold prices below 2500 USD, with the current index at 104 and delayed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [6]. - A withdrawal of funds from global risk assets into gold is occurring amidst concerns of economic recession, with ongoing geopolitical tensions in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East [6]. - Technical breakdowns and panic selling could trigger programmed sell-offs, although gold prices are currently holding at the 3250 USD support level [6]. Practical Recommendations for Consumers - For personal use, purchasing gold in the 700-750 CNY range is advisable, as the premium for craftsmanship has decreased [7]. - For asset allocation, a dollar-cost averaging strategy in gold ETFs is recommended, particularly if prices drop to 700 CNY [7]. - For those holding gold, it is suggested to maintain positions until 2026, as forecasts predict a rise to 3700 USD per ounce [7].

能化延续偏弱对待 日度技术追踪:原油日线级别中期震荡结构,小时级别短期下跌 结构。今日减仓震荡,短周期重心缓慢下移,上方短期压力位暂看 512一线。策略上小时周期空单持有。 l | t G S S B S E BEEEEEEE !!!!!!!!! the lind of the first of the firm of the may be 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 图 1. 2: 原油 2508 小时图 S S E B 图 1. 1: 原油 2508 日线图 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 Ho Hidrive 行情日评: (一) 原油: 逻辑:以伊冲突结束后,原油快速挤出地缘溢价,基本面短期低 库存下偏强,但OPEEC+增产周期下中期过剩预期强烈。 板块观点汇总 小时周期策略 品种 中期结构 短期结构 偏空 震荡/偏 原油 空单持有 空 震荡 空单持有 EB 偏空 PX 偏空 偏空 空单持有 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PTA 震荡 偏空 空单持有 PP 震荡 塑料 偏空 空单持有 震荡 偏空 空单持有 甲醇 震荡 偏空 EG 空单持有 偏空 偏空 橡胶 空单持有 偏空 偏空 空单进场 PVC B ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 30 日 冠通每日交易策略 热点品种 豆粕： 豆粕主力 09 合约今日盘面高开后窄幅震荡，收盘涨幅 0.78%。国际方面，美国 干旱监测报告显示，截至 6 月 24 日，大豆作物处于干旱地区的比例为 12%，一 周前 13%，去年同期 7%。气象预报显示，7 月初美国玉米带将迎来温暖且伴有适 度降雨的天气，有助于大豆作物生长。国内方面，监测显示，截至 6 月 27 日当 周，国内主要油厂大豆压榨量 249 万吨，周环比上升 10 万吨，月环比上升 22 万 吨，同比上升 31 万吨，创历史单周新高。预计本周油厂开机率维持高位，大豆 压榨量在 230 万吨左右。综合来看，美国大豆作物生长条件良好，未来几周还将 迎来适度降雨，提振大豆产量前景。国内油厂开工率不断攀升，豆粕库存持续增 加，终端需求平稳，部分地区出现胀库催提现象，但在美盘大豆反弹后带动进口 大豆成本增加对市场提供支撑，油厂及贸易商试探性小幅上调豆粕价格，不过油 厂挺粕动力依然不强，其上行幅度有限，预计豆 ...

证券研究报告 | 海外市场月报 2025 年 06 月 30 日 [Table_Main] 海外市场月报 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 美元资产修复之后 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 6 月全球股市涨多跌少。美国三大股指集体上涨，其中纳斯达克指数领涨；欧洲 三大主要指数表现分化；亚太市场方面，韩国综合指数领涨。 美国 5 月 PCE 基本符合预期，消费者信心显著下降。6 月 27 日，美国商务部公 布数据显示，美国 5 月 PCE 物价指数同比上升 2.3%，符合预期，美国 5 月核心 PCE 物价指数年率录得 2.7%，创 2025 年 2 月以来新高。6 月 25 日周二，谘商 会最新报告显示，由于预期商业状况、就业市场和收入前景较为低迷，美国消费 者信心本月有所减弱，美国 6 月谘商会消费者信心指数降至 100.4，略高于市场 预期的 100，但 5 月数据下修至 101.3。 美元弱势 ...

欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩：我们正面对地缘政治的诸多问题，而这些问题，某种程度上，正引导着全 球化的逐步退却。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the financial futures and options market, both stock index futures and treasury bond futures are expected to be strong in the short and medium - term. In the commodity futures and options market, different metals and energy materials, as well as agricultural products, have their own unique supply - demand and price trends [1][2][4]. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [1] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish [1] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and IM2507 long positions [1] - **Core logic**: Positive sentiment in the equity market due to Sino - US communication and policy support, and the potential rise of the science and technology sector [1] Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL) - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [2] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish [2] - **Reference strategy**: Hold T2509 or TL2509 long positions [3] - **Core logic**: Weak domestic fundamentals strengthen policy expectations, and the central bank's continued net investment affects the capital market [3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials - **Copper** - **Day - to - day view**: Price range from 79,200 to 81,000 [4] - **Medium - term view**: Price range from 60,000 to 90,000 [4] - **Reference strategy**: Adopt an oscillating and slightly upward trading idea, buy call options [4] - **Core logic**: The "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US, supply shortages, and changes in international demand and inventory levels affect copper prices [4] - **Industrial Silicon** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 8,000 to 8,100 [5] - **Medium - term view**: Face downward pressure, price range from 7,000 to 9,000 [5] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short SI2508 - C - 9000 until expiration, short futures on rallies [5] - **Core logic**: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [5] - **Polysilicon** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 33,000 to 35,000 [7] - **Medium - term view**: Trade at a low level, price range from 28,000 to 38,000 [7] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short PS2508 - C - 45000 until expiration [7] - **Core logic**: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [7] - **Aluminum** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 20,400 to 20,700 [9] - **Medium - term view**: Trade at a high level, price range from 19,200 to 21,000 [9] - **Reference strategy**: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [9] - **Core logic**: Limited supply increase, low inventory, good performance in the automotive market, and the overall rise of non - ferrous metals [9] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 63,000 to 65,000 [11] - **Medium - term view**: Cost support weakens, prices decline steadily, price range from 56,000 to 68,000 [11] - **Reference strategy**: Short futures on rallies, sell LC2508 - C - 83000 [11] - **Core logic**: Low spot prices, large supply, and high inventory levels [11] Black and Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Day - to - day view**: Downward pressure weakens [14] - **Medium - term view**: Stop falling and stabilize [14] - **Reference strategy**: Exit the strategy of selling call options and buying put options on RB2510, sell out - of - the - money put options on rebar RB2510 [14] - **Core logic**: Potential relief of raw material inventory pressure and changes in supply and demand [14] Livestock, Poultry, and Soft Commodities - **Hogs** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias [17] - **Medium - term view**: Rebound temporarily and then maintain a weak trend [17] - **Reference strategy**: Short on rallies [17] - **Core logic**: Changes in supply and demand, with supply remaining abundant and demand weak [17] - **Sugar** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate weakly [19] - **Medium - term view**: Rise first and then fall [19] - **Reference strategy**: Short on rallies [19] - **Core logic**: Global supply surplus expectations and domestic supply - demand and import situations [19] - **Protein Meal** - **Day - to - day view**: Soybean meal 2509 oscillates in the range of [2,900, 3,000] [22] - **Medium - term view**: Soybean meal 2509 builds a bottom in the range of [2,900, 3,100] [22] - **Reference strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options on soybean meal 2508 - P - 2850 [22] - **Core logic**: Uncertainty in the weather of US soybean and Canadian rapeseed growing areas, and changes in international and domestic soybean and rapeseed markets [22] Energy and Chemicals - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate within a range [25] - **Medium - term view**: Face downward pressure [25] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short out - of - the - money call options on PG2508 [25] - **Core logic**: Changes in supply, demand, and cost factors [25] - **PVC** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [28] - **Medium - term view**: Limited upside potential [28] - **Reference strategy**: Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options on PVC [28] - **Core logic**: Changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory levels [28]

Core Insights - The recent occupation of a lithium mine by Russian forces near Shevchenkove village in the Donetsk region has resulted in Ukraine losing control over a critical strategic resource, disrupting the economic cooperation framework between the U.S. and Ukraine [1][3] - The lithium mine, although small in size (approximately 100 acres), is considered one of Ukraine's most valuable mineral deposits, essential for battery manufacturing and advanced technologies [3] - The U.S. previously signed agreements with Ukraine to prioritize the development of its lithium resources, aiming to strengthen its influence in the global mineral supply chain [3] Economic and Strategic Implications - The loss of control over the lithium mine poses significant risks to Ukraine's economic recovery and strategic autonomy, as control over mineral resources is directly linked to economic power [3][5] - Ukrainian officials have expressed the need for increased military support from the U.S. to effectively counter Russian advances and maintain control over strategic resources [3][5] - The U.S. has shown reluctance to link mineral development transactions with additional military aid, indicating a cautious approach to military involvement in Ukraine [3][5][8] Geopolitical Context - The seizure of the lithium mine by Russian forces highlights the ongoing resource competition and geopolitical tensions, with lithium becoming a cornerstone for future energy and high-tech industries [5][7] - The situation reflects a broader trend where resource control is intertwined with national security, emphasizing that economic cooperation cannot be isolated from security considerations [7][8] - The ongoing conflict over the lithium mine is expected to intensify, becoming a focal point in the geopolitical rivalry between major powers [7][8] Future Outlook - The interplay between resource control and military support will continue to shape the dynamics of U.S.-Ukraine cooperation, with the potential for significant implications on regional stability and global supply chains [7][8] - The challenges faced by Ukraine in balancing economic interests with military realities underscore the complexities of modern geopolitical strategies [8]

Group 1: Gold Market - Investors are closely monitoring trade negotiations as the deadline for Trump's proposed "reciprocal tariffs" approaches, with indications that the negotiations may not be as severe as in April [2] - The proposed "Big and Beautiful" bill passed the House on May 22 and narrowly passed a procedural vote in the Senate on June 28, with modifications requiring another House vote; the CBO predicts a $4.5 trillion revenue reduction and a $3.3 trillion increase in the fiscal deficit by 2034 [2] - Technically, gold has been in a correction phase since April 22, with a potential rebound if it stabilizes above $3,300, targeting $3,360 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Despite a verbal ceasefire between Israel and Iran, tensions remain high, with Trump threatening further military action against Iran and Iran halting inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency [4] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 80%, with a 92.5% chance of a rate cut in September, increasing market bets on future rate cuts, which could boost oil demand [5] - OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production, leading to potential oversupply in the oil market; if global economic conditions improve, it may bolster market confidence [5] - Technically, oil prices have shown a downward trend, with resistance at $67 and a potential drop to $60 if prices fall below $64 [5] Group 3: Nikkei 225 and Copper Market - The Nikkei 225 index has been on a strong upward trend, breaking the highest price since July 18, 2024, but caution is advised against chasing further gains [7] - Copper prices have been fluctuating since early April, with a potential shift in trend; support is noted at $4.88 and resistance at $5.06 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that President Trump announced the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities, which escalates geopolitical risks and disrupts market expectations for US-Iran negotiations [2][4][11] - Trump's statement indicates a dual strategy of sanctions and military threats, emphasizing that sanctions will not be lifted until Iran completely abandons its nuclear program [5][11] - The Iranian government has responded by asserting its readiness to counter any aggression and has called for accountability from the UN Security Council [2][4] Group 2 - The escalation of geopolitical risks has led to significant fluctuations in the gold market, with spot gold prices experiencing a sharp rise and subsequent decline due to market reactions [6][11] - Historical comparisons show that gold prices surged significantly during past US-Iran conflicts, indicating a potential for similar behavior in the current situation [7] - Despite the geopolitical tensions boosting demand for gold, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve poses a challenge to gold prices, as rising interest rates could diminish gold's appeal [8][11] Group 3 - Central banks globally are expected to continue increasing their gold holdings, with a strong interest from emerging market central banks [9] - The decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves suggests a structural support for gold as it becomes a key beneficiary of the "de-dollarization" trend [9][11] - The risk of an economic recession in the US provides a baseline support for gold prices, despite short-term pressures from interest rate expectations [8][11]